開門 Open Door

"The narrative of this pandemic evolves over time, even flips in surprising ways"

The door to the mainland is open after three years. The sudden and unexpected reversal in China's zero Covid approach caught many by surprise. As recently as late October, the talk was of precautions remaining in place until mid-2023. 

Hence a scramble is underway to crank up systems, facilities and people long held dormant or in stasis. The mainland boundary crossing points, high-speed rail, airport and sundry other places must emerge from complete or partial hibernation.

In time, I expect Hong Kong to again act as a node for international travellers to the mainland and elsewhere.  

Such reactivation is not without challenges, not least because of staff shortages. For starters, people laid off during the pandemic are less than willing to return to industries that treated them poorly.

Being cast aside isn't forgotten with ease. Further, having found new careers, these people will need an attractive offer to get them back. 

Covid also caused us to reflect on life's more essential aspects. In that process, many concluded that a relentless work schedule for mediocre pay is not attractive. As a result, the practice of quiet quitting (安靜地戒菸) or insisting on a proper work-life balance gained traction.

Poor management and weak leadership don't help. So, companies that only pay lip service to the concept of a work-life balance but don't deliver, will struggle to attract and retain staff.

Plus, overseas places are busy targeting our skilled workers with offers of jobs, a fast track to resident status, passports and a less hectic lifestyle. And yes, these emigrants face obstacles, as those who departed to the U.K. soon discovered rampant inflation, high energy costs and a struggle to access health care. Hence, there are risks in taking that route. 

In its favour, Hong Kong has a remarkable track record for rebounding. There is no reason to believe this occasion will differ from the 1998 financial crisis, the 2003 SARS pandemic or other hurdles we've faced. Moreover, we can always draw upon the massive hinterland to the north to secure the talent for our industries.

On that score, the Quality Migrant Scheme is already attracting talent with 5,365 applications last year - 90% coming from the mainland. 

Meanwhile, as expected, Covid-related deaths in China have jumped, with 60,000 reported between 8 December 2022 and 12 January 2023. And, again, as seen elsewhere, it is the elderly who take the hit, with the average age of those dying at 80. 

Hong Kong data shows the same trend; 95% of the Covid-related deaths are over 60 years old. While some 93% of this group had pre-existing chronic illnesses, and 46% lived in care homes. Of note is that 60% were unvaccinated, and 13% had only received a first dose. 

Still, a debate is developing around the long-term safety of mRNA vaccines. Early in the Covid crisis, the big play was that the new mRNA vaccines conferred an advantage over traditional products such as Sinovac.

All vaccines introduce a harmless piece of a particular bacteria or virus into the body, triggering an immune response. Until the mRNA came along, most vaccines contained a weakened or dead bacteria or virus. We've used this method of vaccine production for decades and understand the associated risks. 

A Hong Kong University study found that both types of vaccine worked. Still, advice suggested that the new technology adopted in the mRNA vaccines offered advantages.

The mRNA vaccines use a molecule called messenger RNA rather than part of an actual bacteria or virus. This molecule's introduction raises questions explored here.

As a subject of discussion, vaccines can divide opinion. Currently those expressing doubts around mRNA vaccines are typically on the fringe or pushed there by partisan interests. 

For laymen, it is difficult to navigate this debate, especially when the 'experts' express opinions that contradict each other. Besides, there appear to be a few who are providing misinformation. These pundits cloud the issue, either for profit, personal renown or the misguided belief they are doing a public service. 

Thus, all we can do is await further deliberations. As more evidence emerges, the picture should be more precise. We can then decide which vaccines may best suit the individual in the future. 

But, of course, if it emerges that any entity downplayed or misrepresented the risks of mRNA vaccines, then citizens have every right to demand answers. Further, those responsible must account for their actions.

As an aside, and as a demonstration of how fast our knowledge is advancing, even our Neanderthal heritage is a factor in Covid survival rates. Research has shown that people with a part of a specific Neanderthal chromosome variant are twice as likely to die of Covid if infected.

This variant predominates in southern Asia. Meanwhile, other variants of Neanderthal genes protect against Covid. That's the evolutionary luck of the draw. 

It is worth noting that the narrative of this pandemic evolves over time, even flips in surprising ways. Until around early 2022, Hong Kong was doing well and cited as a model of effective Covid management. Then Omicron arrived. It soon took a brutal toll on the unvaccinated elderly, with Hong Kong topping the death league for a while.

Going further back, in early 2021, the pandemic narrative told us that Europe and the Americas performed worse than Asia. Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea and  Japan all sat run the top 10. 

Meanwhile, the global south benefited from a younger population, thus proving less affected by the virus. Yet, by mid-2022, the distinction between these areas is less evident. Moreover, Europe and North America are proving better at protecting the elderly. Even now, the Covid death rate in Hong Kong (per million of the population) is climbing - data is below.

How the narrative develops from here with China opening up remains unclear. But for sure, the final script is unwritten. All we can say is that all nations struggled, and no perfect response emerged.