Why is Hong Kong's Crime Rate Falling?
Year after year, the Commissioner of Police proudly announces the decline in the crime rate. This annual event is a moment to celebrate the hard work and dedication of the Police Force. It's essential to recognise that running a Police Force is challenging, and the recognition is well-deserved.
In 2011, Hong Kong recorded 75,936 crimes. In 2016, that had fallen to 60,646. Robbery fell from 731 to 260, with only deception cases significantly rising. These climbed from 6,134 to 7,260. More on that later.
I don't want to rain on the Police's parade. Yet, it's true that many factors beyond their remit are helping drive down crime. The commendable efforts of the Police are only one aspect of the equation. To start with, Hong Kong ladies have fewer babies. Thus, a whole cohort of potential criminals is not around. We all know that middle-class kids are less likely to turn to crime. But these days, even lower-class kids are getting more attention from their parents. Which means they are less likely to stray. Social programmes, with better interventions by schools, are driving that result.
At the other end of the age spectrum, the old generation of heroin addicts is dying off. Some of these guys funded their habit with quick cash crimes. This generation is not consuming heroin; thus, the cohort of criminal addicts shrinks.
We should not ignore the impact of the Internet and online gaming. While the Internet has been a crime innovator, it has also removed kids from public spaces, especially at night. Teenagers no longer populate the old breeding grounds of triads. Meanwhile, game centres, always a potential crime spot, have reduced in number. The fun is now available on hand-held devices and home computers.
Involvement in street crime is improbable when people are indoors, harnessed to computers. Reduced chance encounters with gangs and yobs result. Nonetheless, it is recognised that the Internet has spawned a new tranche of crime. Deceptions, identity theft, and sexual ambushes are all facilitated by the virtual world. This type of crime is probably under-reported. Also, the chances of catching the culprits are remote, whilst embarrassment deters victims. Young men are not keen to share the fact their wanking. The prospect of turning up at a police station to report your wrist actions is not something to relish.
With successful coordination across boundaries, law enforcement has successfully disrupted criminal activity. However, it's important to acknowledge the challenges they face. As soon as one group gets broken up, another springs into life. It's a constant battle, and the resilience and dedication of law enforcement in the face of these challenges is commendable. It's lucrative and organised, and large syndicates operating out of the Philippines and Indonesia are robust. Despite the public warnings, people still get caught out. You can't account for stupidity, but you can appreciate the efforts to combat it.
Outside factors have always influenced Hong Kong's crime situation. Events in China are the usual drivers. The gun crime of the 1980s and early 1990s arose from a downsizing of the PLA, plus access to firearms. In recent times, the opening of Shenzhen has drawn criminals there. Lax law enforcement and ease of drug access attracted Hong Kongers over the boundary. On a recent flight to Canada, a young man seated next to me admitted he could access drugs with ease in Shenzhen. However, he lamented that it was more challenging in Hong Kong.
Macau, with its rapid growth in casino gambling, had a profound impact on Hong Kong crime. Most intelligent triads headed there to take rich pickings; they operated lucrative private gaming junkets. Loan sharking, debt collection and acting as heavies brought a steady income. Having the smart guys leave town was not all good news. That less savvy triads were left behind to operate without a 'Daai Lo' had adverse consequences. Petty disputes didn't get settled as groups fragmented. In turn, this led to an escalation of violence.
Still, the boom in Macau and Shenzhen allowed most triads to wet their beaks. Which meant they weren't causing trouble in Hong Kong.
The gentrification of old areas has created benefits. Space that was previously ungoverned is now under control. Uniformed security patrols, CCTV, and access controls all help. These days, confined to remote villages and premises without security, burglaries are rare.
Social factors play a significant role in reducing crime. The emergence of a middle class brings values and behaviours discouraging criminal activities. Children from such backgrounds fear the disapproval of their school, family, and peers. They emphasise that their education opportunities abroad depend on maintaining a clean record. This mindset is a testament to the positive changes in society.
This enforcement of norms of behaviour is seen in people lining up to enter MTR trains. When I arrived in Hong Kong in the 1980s, this didn't happen. It was a scramble to get on and off. Society evolved.
The Police's proactive approach and long-term strategies deserve recognition. Initiatives like the Superintendent Discretion scheme and anti-youth crime campaigns have proven successful. The school liaison teams have also played a crucial role in keeping thousands of children out of trouble. Volunteer schemes, such as Operation Breakthrough, further enhance these efforts.
The Hong Kong Police rapidly respond to all crimes, which is a tremendous benefit. Culprits are apprehended, and the evidence is preserved, leading to sustained public safety. Other than that, CCTV has proved a boon because conflicting versions of events are now soon resolved. The evidence gathered from CCTV removes doubts about what happened. With blame assigned, convictions prove easy.
In the early days of CCTV, there were many instances of police officers getting caught out. In a memorable case, a Superintendent briefed the media on a robbery. He asserted that alert officers had followed armed robbers into a gambling den. When the robbers produced firearms, the officers responded. With two robbers shot, it was tea and medals. The next day, footage emerged. The officers were inside the gambling den playing when the robbers entered. Oh dear.
DNA and fingerprint evidence continue to bring many to justice. Even if the immediate case does not produce an arrest, the bad guys will get caught for something. Trawling through old cases and DNA evidence can clear up a load of crime. It's an expensive, time-consuming process that works.
Policing in Hong Kong underwent an upgrade in professionalism from the 1980s onwards, which allowed for good headway against crime. Alas, distractions did occur. The Vietnamese boat people influx stretched resources, drawing officers away. Likewise, protests and the Occupy movement had a similar impact.
Yet, despite these successes, the picture remains fluid. The challenge of the future will be cybercrime. Today's police recruits will face a different world. In 10 years, they will investigate crimes that don't exist.
May 2017
In 2011, Hong Kong recorded 75,936 crimes. In 2016, that had fallen to 60,646. Robbery fell from 731 to 260, with only deception cases significantly rising. These climbed from 6,134 to 7,260. More on that later.
I don't want to rain on the Police's parade. Yet, it's true that many factors beyond their remit are helping drive down crime. The commendable efforts of the Police are only one aspect of the equation. To start with, Hong Kong ladies have fewer babies. Thus, a whole cohort of potential criminals is not around. We all know that middle-class kids are less likely to turn to crime. But these days, even lower-class kids are getting more attention from their parents. Which means they are less likely to stray. Social programmes, with better interventions by schools, are driving that result.
At the other end of the age spectrum, the old generation of heroin addicts is dying off. Some of these guys funded their habit with quick cash crimes. This generation is not consuming heroin; thus, the cohort of criminal addicts shrinks.
We should not ignore the impact of the Internet and online gaming. While the Internet has been a crime innovator, it has also removed kids from public spaces, especially at night. Teenagers no longer populate the old breeding grounds of triads. Meanwhile, game centres, always a potential crime spot, have reduced in number. The fun is now available on hand-held devices and home computers.
Involvement in street crime is improbable when people are indoors, harnessed to computers. Reduced chance encounters with gangs and yobs result. Nonetheless, it is recognised that the Internet has spawned a new tranche of crime. Deceptions, identity theft, and sexual ambushes are all facilitated by the virtual world. This type of crime is probably under-reported. Also, the chances of catching the culprits are remote, whilst embarrassment deters victims. Young men are not keen to share the fact their wanking. The prospect of turning up at a police station to report your wrist actions is not something to relish.
With successful coordination across boundaries, law enforcement has successfully disrupted criminal activity. However, it's important to acknowledge the challenges they face. As soon as one group gets broken up, another springs into life. It's a constant battle, and the resilience and dedication of law enforcement in the face of these challenges is commendable. It's lucrative and organised, and large syndicates operating out of the Philippines and Indonesia are robust. Despite the public warnings, people still get caught out. You can't account for stupidity, but you can appreciate the efforts to combat it.
Outside factors have always influenced Hong Kong's crime situation. Events in China are the usual drivers. The gun crime of the 1980s and early 1990s arose from a downsizing of the PLA, plus access to firearms. In recent times, the opening of Shenzhen has drawn criminals there. Lax law enforcement and ease of drug access attracted Hong Kongers over the boundary. On a recent flight to Canada, a young man seated next to me admitted he could access drugs with ease in Shenzhen. However, he lamented that it was more challenging in Hong Kong.
Macau, with its rapid growth in casino gambling, had a profound impact on Hong Kong crime. Most intelligent triads headed there to take rich pickings; they operated lucrative private gaming junkets. Loan sharking, debt collection and acting as heavies brought a steady income. Having the smart guys leave town was not all good news. That less savvy triads were left behind to operate without a 'Daai Lo' had adverse consequences. Petty disputes didn't get settled as groups fragmented. In turn, this led to an escalation of violence.
Still, the boom in Macau and Shenzhen allowed most triads to wet their beaks. Which meant they weren't causing trouble in Hong Kong.
The gentrification of old areas has created benefits. Space that was previously ungoverned is now under control. Uniformed security patrols, CCTV, and access controls all help. These days, confined to remote villages and premises without security, burglaries are rare.
Social factors play a significant role in reducing crime. The emergence of a middle class brings values and behaviours discouraging criminal activities. Children from such backgrounds fear the disapproval of their school, family, and peers. They emphasise that their education opportunities abroad depend on maintaining a clean record. This mindset is a testament to the positive changes in society.
This enforcement of norms of behaviour is seen in people lining up to enter MTR trains. When I arrived in Hong Kong in the 1980s, this didn't happen. It was a scramble to get on and off. Society evolved.
The Police's proactive approach and long-term strategies deserve recognition. Initiatives like the Superintendent Discretion scheme and anti-youth crime campaigns have proven successful. The school liaison teams have also played a crucial role in keeping thousands of children out of trouble. Volunteer schemes, such as Operation Breakthrough, further enhance these efforts.
The Hong Kong Police rapidly respond to all crimes, which is a tremendous benefit. Culprits are apprehended, and the evidence is preserved, leading to sustained public safety. Other than that, CCTV has proved a boon because conflicting versions of events are now soon resolved. The evidence gathered from CCTV removes doubts about what happened. With blame assigned, convictions prove easy.
In the early days of CCTV, there were many instances of police officers getting caught out. In a memorable case, a Superintendent briefed the media on a robbery. He asserted that alert officers had followed armed robbers into a gambling den. When the robbers produced firearms, the officers responded. With two robbers shot, it was tea and medals. The next day, footage emerged. The officers were inside the gambling den playing when the robbers entered. Oh dear.
DNA and fingerprint evidence continue to bring many to justice. Even if the immediate case does not produce an arrest, the bad guys will get caught for something. Trawling through old cases and DNA evidence can clear up a load of crime. It's an expensive, time-consuming process that works.
Policing in Hong Kong underwent an upgrade in professionalism from the 1980s onwards, which allowed for good headway against crime. Alas, distractions did occur. The Vietnamese boat people influx stretched resources, drawing officers away. Likewise, protests and the Occupy movement had a similar impact.
Yet, despite these successes, the picture remains fluid. The challenge of the future will be cybercrime. Today's police recruits will face a different world. In 10 years, they will investigate crimes that don't exist.
May 2017
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