Walter's Blog |
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Reflections on recent events, plus the occasional fact
free rant unfiltered by rational argument. |
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15/9/2021 1 Comment Nicki Minaj Talking Bollocks! “My cousin in Trinidad won’t get the vaccine cuz his friend got it & became impotent. His testicles became swollen.” Nicki Minaj isn’t on my radar. However, a quick visit to her Wikipedia entry reveals she’s a rap singer with a secondary school education and a string of sackings from waitressing jobs for rudeness to customers. Unfortunately, I don’t see any details about her medical qualifications, especially her expertise in Covid vaccines. None of this stopped her from sharing the following with her 22 million followers and the world. “My cousin in Trinidad won’t get the vaccine cuz his friend got it & became impotent. His testicles became swollen.” Ms Minaj goes on to note that the swollen testicles and alleged impotence resulted in a called-off wedding. When called out for spreading lies about vaccines by both Professor Whitty and Boris Johnson, she doubled down in a series of tweets, including mocking Witty’s British accent. But, oddly, Ms Minaj declared her love for Boris, affirming her well-developed sense of humour. And Ms Minaj doesn’t look to be showing any signs of backing down. Instead, she moved on to attacking professional big mouth Piers Moron and the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg. No wonder she couldn’t hold down a job as a waitress. Lucky break Minaj can rap and shake her ample bottom. Ms Minaj should stick to her particular area of expertise, leaving the science to the scientists. Yet, just in case she drops in, here is a message she can comprehend.
I'll get my coat.
1 Comment
13/9/2021 1 Comment Stand Up Straight and Make Your Bed "You have to run as fast as you can to stay in the same place," observed the Red Queen" Has it ever occurred to you that Jordan Peterson and the leaders in Beijing have much in common? Both want people, especially young people, to stand up straight, make their beds and gather some purpose in life. In other words, shape up, take on responsibility.
Peterson's influential book "12 Rules for Life: An Antidote to Chaos" looks like a template for the changes that the CCP is seeking to drive with a few caveats. With growing numbers of flabby, disengaged, demotivated kids, and a looming population decline, China is starting to see the impact of an emergent middle-class. And while the speed of change in China continues at a pace unseen in history, there are favourable and negative outcomes. On the positive front, consider this. When the communists came to power in 1949, the average life expectancy was around 40. Today it is 77. Along the way, with millions lifted out of poverty, China’s economic growth startled the world. The new middle-class soon adopted the behaviours and conventions of modern advanced countries. That includes life choices such as a reluctance to marry or getting married later. Driving this is a highly competitive education system, workplace stress, and difficulty getting onto the property ladder. Does that sound familiar? In Japan, the response was the 'Hikikomor' sub-culture. People refused to leave their homes or even a single room as they disengaged from society. Usually, these are young males trapped in an online world. In China, something similar manifested with "lying flat" or tangping (躺平). Again, young people opt out of an over-worked and stressed-out life. Also, "lying flat" amounts to a rejection of the consumer society. Besides, with children spending 12-hours a day on education, not including the extra lessons after class, a marked impact on physical and mental well-being is evident. For example, more and more kids, as young as 12, need neck physiotherapy for posture problems. Likewise, severe harm to eyesight results from hours spent looking at screens. Meanwhile, lack of upper body strength is common as muscle development falters. Related to this issue is a perceived over-indulgence in the worship of celebrities followed online. From all of this, I can see that Beijing fears the current direction of society and sub-cultures that may weaken the nation. They've recognised that over-burdening youngsters with false expectations and educational pressures may cause them to 'drop out'. Besides, the costs and stress of raising children deter prospective parents from having a family. So, how to deal with these intersecting issues? Well, with a raft of measures, the government has gone to the perceived root of the problem. For starters, they've closed the private tutor centres that provided cramming sessions to boost kid's academic performance. Overnight, these centres — which employed vast numbers of so-called star-tutors — fell. This move aims to deflate the increasing competition amongst students while also reducing the cost of parenting. Cuts in school hours, a ban on weekend classes and curtailing competitive exams are likewise mandated. In addition, the amount of time that kids spend on computers and the types of games they play are under scrutiny. The under-18s will get no more than three hours of online gaming a week. And the tech companies are to be held to account for these perimeters. Some pundits surmise that part of the motivation for these sweeping changes is to constrain the influence of tech companies. For example, China sees in the West that companies such as Facebook operate as monopolistic entities beyond accountability. Beijing is signalling it is not prepared to cede control to the likes of Zuckerberg. The crackdowns on celebrity culture, the tech firms and the profit-seeking educational institutes kills several birds with one stone. First, it is a partial return to the original doctrine of the party by reducing the power of the super-rich. That segues (hopefully) into a more egalitarian society that offers dignity to workers. Hence, a work/life balance while recognising the importance of the family. But, above all, it demonstrates the party remains in control. Peterson, in his book, used the Taoist symbol shown above to represent the boundary between order and chaos. This doctrine illustrates the importance of balance. In Taoist thinking and Peterson's interpretation, you find meaning in the boundary between order and chaos. Although you should never wander too far on either side as life can go out of kilter. In support of his thinking, Peterson proposed that people must live by the same code that renders them mutually predictable. Therefore, they act in keeping with each other's expectations and desires, aimed at a peaceful existence. In conjunction with this, people must adopt individual responsibility and contribute to broader society. To start this process, Peterson proposes instilling self-discipline with predictable daily routines. It is possible to see these elements in the Chinese policies. I would argue that the leaders in Beijing are now engaged in a tacit negotiation with their citizenry. They've acknowledged that rapid growth and wealth brought forth society-wide strains. Accordingly, they now seek to reduce the negative aspects of success. But, at the same time, they pursue cooperation in advancing the notion of common prosperity. Yet, despite China's track record of turning a vision into reality, I foresee a massive challenge in driving such changes. Remember, both Singapore and Japan failed with a similar approach to encourage child-bearing. Likewise, weening people off celebrities is near-impossible because culture is an awkward force to bend. Plus, I fear the message of less pressure for kids hasn't registered with all Chinese parents. Already some are seeking to get around the government-mandated restrictions with homeschooling. "You have to run as fast as you can to stay in the same place." observed the Red Queen in Alice in Wonderland. So as China wakes to the fact that not everyone can keep up, is the pace going to slow down? I'm reminded that ‘culture eats strategy for breakfast’. The plain fact is all those Tiger mums didn’t spring from nowhere. 10/9/2021 1 Comment The Unseen Hand "The Christian Science Monitor described Sharp as 'the most influential American political figure you've never heard of" Throughout the protests of 2019, I marvelled at the ingenuity, resourcefulness and flair of the protesters. They appeared capable of constant innovation, shifting their tactics to cause frustrations and embarrassment to the authorities.
Was this accident or by design? It now appears they followed a template provided by American academic Gene Sharp. Like many other observers, I put much of their success down to youthful vigour and imagination. These traits undoubtedly played a significant role, not least because the kids harnessed social media to amplify their messages. It seemed that the protestors had the government's PR machine outflanked with clever and sophisticated use of the Internet. Also, it struck me as odd that no one emerged to negotiate with the government. Instead, well-known moderates proved unwilling to come forward — nor did they condemn the violence. The Christian Science Monitor described Sharp as 'the most influential American political figure you've never heard of". The deceased Harvard professor authored the seminal book on regime change, 'From Directorship to Democracy'. In addition, he is the intellectual weight behind many protest movements, framing his philosophy as a soft coup method that substitutes war. In a career spanning four decades, Sharp developed and refined the strategies and tactics used by protesters. Left-wing activist Marcie Smith explores Sharp's work, its impact and his motivations here. While Sharp is often portrayed as a pro-democracy advocate, his motives also point towards a neoliberal free-market agenda supporting big business. Cloaked in the mantle of democracy, Sharp sought to kick open market access. Examining Sharp's book, especially Appendix 1, you can see a template for the events in Hong Kong. Mock funerals, product boycotts, attempts at dual governance are a few examples amongst the 198 actions he recommends. Significantly, Sharp opposed any negotiations with governments. He has a whole chapter that argues under no circumstances should protesters meet with the officials to discuss a compromise. Because he asserts, such talks lead to undermining the ultimate goal of regime change. I surmise the initiation of the 2019 unrest was spontaneous. Even so, powerful forces were waiting in the wings, ready to exploit the situation; recognising an opportunity, foreign politicians egged on the unrest here. Indeed the U.S. made no secret of this. The National Endowment for Democracy gave cash as listed here. Further, don't forget that in the lead-up to the events of 2019, activists received training overseas. The BBC documented this as the protagonists attended the Oslo Forum. The clear dangers in Sharp's thinking are self-evident. First, without the possibility of compromise, protesters enter a struggle of attrition. That's a fool's errand when facing a much superior force. Also, without universal support in the local population and relentless discipline, the movement soon spun out of control with violence and terrorist activity. The Arab Spring is an example where Sharp's ideas had adverse consequences. In Egypt, the outcome was a military dictatorship. And as scholars continue to pick over the pieces of that struggle, what is certain is that the results weren't beneficial as much of the Arab world is less stable. Even though Sharp spoke of nonviolence, he acknowledged that brute force has a role in any struggle. The activists in Hong Kong echoed these sentiments. Sharp advocated for the use of attacks to provoke the authorities into taking harsh counter-measures. In addition, protesters can exploit graphic violence by the police and others for propaganda purposes to undermine the government further. In Hong Kong, creating disorder was the easy part. But this soon escalated, out of control, morphing into an attempted insurrection with the assault on our parliament. This was bound to happen with a leaderless movement having no clear direction, prone to miscalculations and fragmentation. And so it proved. The 2014 Occupy Central movement foreshadowed this failure. Professor Benny Tai planned that exercise in civil disobedience. Tai, derided as an ideas man with no practical leadership experience, was forced to start the occupation early. He soon left the scene, running back to his office at Hong Kong University, leaving mayhem on the streets. The occupiers lingered for 79 days before finally disappearing with a whimper. Throughout, the authorities remained primarily passive, allowing the blockages to continue knowing that the participants couldn't sustain their efforts for too long. The public also grew tired of the inconvenience, which undermined support. Leaderless protest looks fine on paper. But, in truth, it is a fanciful concept with no practical use. The idea prevents the authorities from targeting the movement's leaders to decapitate the organisation. But then again, it is nearly impossible to sustain an effort; a lack of control is inevitable and fragmented groups. Gene Sharp died in 2018. But, no doubt, his ideas will likely continue to shape how protesters behave. Meanwhile, in Hong Kong, China has applied its antidote with the implementation of NSL. It is tough medicine and a harsh lesson for the naive kids caught up in a futile strategy.  "All UK military personal involved had leave cancelled on 23 July, yet Raab went on holiday." He is at work, honest! The UK's foremost action hero is on the job. Or that is what he wants you to believe. So as UK Foreign Secretary, Dominic Raab, scrambles to save his career, his PR team is pumping out photographs of 'Action Raab'.
Having pleaded with the Taliban to allow orderly fleeing, Raab is running around shutting stable doors long after the camel bolted. (Surely some mistake - do camels even live in stables?) Before Raab could jet off to pose for pictures in exotic lands, the Foreign Affairs Committee wanted a word. Here are the five key takeaways from the grilling of Dynamic Raab.
Standby for more 'Action Raab’ coming to a news outlet near you. I'm guessing a few choreographed moments in a refugee camp, then a picture standing at a border pointing into the distance, before riding around on more military hardware. The only picture we need to see is Raab riding off into the sunset. |
AuthorWalter De Havilland was one of the last of the colonial coppers. He served 35 years in the Royal Hong Kong Police and Hong Kong Police Force. He's long retired. Archives
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