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Reflections on recent events, plus the occasional fact
free rant unfiltered by rational argument. |
 "We have yet to see the details of NSL; however, its impact is already here." With Beijing about to gift Hong Kong' National Security Laws,' the opposition is looking forlorn and helpless. Anson Chan, the self-proclaimed conscience of Hong Kong and sudden democrat, has thrown in the towel. Her departure follows the death of her daughter in May, which Chan asserts is the reason for disengaging.
Her critics suggest otherwise. For them, she is disingenuous because of the timing and her leaving statement, which points towards political calculation. Of course, Chan is savvy enough to recognise the game is up. Either way, her exit is significant, given that she led efforts for the US to intervene in Hong Kong affairs. Simultaneously, several militant protest leaders have fled in recent weeks. Wayne Chan, convenor of the Hong Kong Independence Union, has jumped bail and gone. He commented, "I don't have the determination to place Hong Kong independence above my own life." Meanwhile, Joshua Wong and Jimmy Lai are busy asserting they expect to face arrest. Without knowing the details of NSL, it's difficult to predict who will fall. Yet given that both Wong and Lai sought foreign action against Beijing, they are obvious targets. On a related development, shares in Jimmy Lai's Next Media Group fell to a new low. His flagship 'Apple Daily' is the central pillar of the opposition propaganda effort in Hong Kong. Thus, its collapse would, like Anson Chan's departure, mark a win for the government and Beijing. With all these developments, the so-called Pan Dem camp is exhibiting palpable fear. While it's true they could win a majority in the forthcoming LegCo elections; this is now looking like a pyrrhic victory. That they gave tacit support to the violence and terrorist activity that shook Hong Kong in 2019, has brought forth their worse nightmare. Their antics that made an indigenous 'Article 23' impossible forced Beijing to act. Within their camp, the more rational acknowledge this guilt, while the vocals types sound crestfallen. Meantime, the calls for protests this weekend met with a lukewarm response. Covid-19, a weak economy and resolute policing are all factors. Also, funding for the demonstrations is faltering. Trump has moved to shut off support, leaving arrested protesters without the promised back up. Naturally, this failure is further dividing the movement. Plus, many hoped for robust overseas support. That expectation is fading fast. Seeking to correct a disgraceful historical act, the UK made an offer of citizenship for BNO holders but then failed to specify details. Despite the efforts of Benedict Rogers and others to reassure people that the UK will help, the reality is setting-in. After all, the UK hasn't yet sorted out the citizenship for the Windrush generation from the 1940s/50s. With the UK's inept public services struggling with Brexit, civil disorder and Covid-19, expecting them to handle a possible three million-plus Hong Kongers is beyond belief. Let's not forget they struggled with 27,000 Ugandan Asians in 1972. Rogers talks of building a coalition of commonwealth countries to offer a 'lifeboat.' We've been here before. Similar efforts in 1972 had only the Falklands offering to take the Ugandan Asians. However, the option of living on a windswept freezing South Atlantic island didn't appeal. Likewise, I don't believe that many Hong Kongers will rush to live in the UK. Never forget that most of the wealthy people that the UK seeks to attract already have second passports. These days Canada is the favoured destination. To me, it's despicable of Rogers and others to offer false hope when the track record shows government's don't act. As I pointed out, this whole BNO charade is distasteful because the UK may not exist as a single entity for long. With Brexit unresolved and Scotland seeking independence, the 'united' bit is looking fragile. Plus, proponents of the 'lifeboat' scheme are blind to the domestic politics of the proposed host nations. We have yet to see the details of NSL; however, its impact is already here. This canny strategy by Beijing has cooled the militants, prompted some to run and sent an explicit message that violence will not be tolerated. You could argue that Beijing has achieved much without a single arrest or prosecution. Although, the underlying sentiments that gave rise to the violence remain unaddressed. No doubt the NSL will spark the usual round of 'death of Hong Kong' stories. Those of us who've lived here more than a decade knows the routine. I recall seeing my first example in 1984. A 'seasoned' western journalist turns up in town, writes a story about cage homes, chats to the old soaks at the FCC and catches an interview with some college kid. The journalist then pronounces 'it's all over — the death of Hong Kong as we know it.' Then he/she is on the plane out of here. It an annoying trope. Nonetheless, as things settle, Hong Kong can perhaps move towards a rational discussion about seeking greater democracy. With this process, in time, maybe consensus on the way forward is possible and then some form of societal reconciliation. In the meantime, be prepared for more howls of faux-pain and teeth-gnashing as the NSL arrives.
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 We must ask to what extent unbalanced media coverage is fueling societies divisions? Lee Fang is a US investigative journalist. At the height of the George Floyd protests, he dared to tweet an interview with a black man expressing concern about black-on-black crimes. Immediately Lee's outraged colleagues at 'The Intercept' judged him guilty of 'thought-crimes'. Then they extracted a written apology and self-criticism. Mao's Red Guards would be proud.
Lee's experience is telling because activist journalists are hi-jacking newsrooms and won't tolerate dissenting voices. The Tom Cotton saga illustrates the point. Cotton, a serving US senator, wrote an Op-Ed piece for the New York Times in June entitled "Send in the Troops". Young staff members at the paper, under the guise of health and safety, objected. They asserted Cotton's views put journalists at risk, although their motivation was more likely to suppress Cotton's opinions. In response, the New York Times implemented changes. These mean its editorial line is now in the hands of the activists. Along the way, senior staff at the paper have undertaken self-denunciation sessions. And so it came to pass that the Marxist cultural revolution arrived in the US media. Sometime in 2019, at the height of Hong Kong's social unrest, I started to realise an odd phenomenon. Much of the coverage in the Western press and watched on international TV was out of kilter with events on the ground. In particular, the extreme violence of the protesters went ignored or down-played. But, any action by the police drew considerable attention and a tone of accusation. Often the full sequence of incidents failed to get a mention, giving the impression that police officers acted unprovoked. As an example, our local channel RTHK spun one story to portray the police as ruining Christmas, but only giving passing mention to the actions of militants throwing petrol bombs. It's important to note that this is not about lying or manufacturing untruths. Instead, the process is more subtle and akin to the tactics applied in psyops. Experts in manipulating populations know that you can't completely change a person's mind. But by the judicial use of cherry-picked facts, you can skew a narrative. Thus, you feed on people's existing sentiments, stoking them to new heights so that you push a particular outcome. It's easy to illustrate. You repeat the message that the protests were peaceful and then only show images of the police using force. Tie that to a few interviews alleging police brutality, and bingo, that is the focus. If you can conjure up a so-called 'expert' that's even better. Meanwhile, the injuries to police officers get ignored. RTHK did this on many occasions. That the 'China Daily' newspaper tended to provide a balanced account of incidents was perplexing. Surely these Mainland outlets, the mouth-pieces of Beijing, couldn't be trusted? Also 'Russia Today' didn't fall into the rote reporting of the Western media. At first, I took these distortions as unique to the context of Hong Kong with anti-China media twisting the narrative. Yet, recent events in the US and UK, described above, suggest this is not isolated to Hong Kong. Across the whole of the mainstream media, well-established principles are breaking down. The emerging picture is of journalism losing its way as the entire medium fractures. In the process, the activists are challenging the old-guard liberals, free-speech journalists, who are fighting a rear-guard action. It all came into sharp focus recently as Covid-19 and the BLM movement acted as a catalyst to widen existing fault-lines that evolved over decades. These fractures are shaking the foundations of the media business with consequences for how people access truth. As with all aspects of life in the postmodern world, the very idea of truth is under threat. To me, this is alarming. We must ask to what extent unbalanced media coverage is fueling societies divisions? Is this driving polarisation and violence? As a kid growing up in 1960s/70s UK, the BBC news was a staple and revered. We trusted that Richard Baker and Angela Rippon spoke the truth to us. Rarely would anyone challenge the BBC. That is no longer the case, with its very existence in doubt given many questions over its evident bias in recent years. We know a sea-change is taking place as de-centralised networked reporting emerges, much of it on social media. Along the way, trust in traditional media outlets dissipates. Thus, in this period of transition, as the old media crumbles, its replacement is yet to form or be credible — if it ever will. And this is dangerous because, in a complex world, we need clarity. Unfortunately, the institutions that helped provide that clarity are fast fading. We have compromised universities, discredited experts and now a faltering media. Part of the problem is that the business models that sustained the old media are no longer viable. This week Next Digital, which publishes the 'Apple Daily', reported a full-year loss of US$53 million. In the UK, The Guardian newspaper is begging for donations on the proposition it offers "factual information, and analysis that has authority and integrity." That one makes me laugh. Meanwhile, there is an ongoing discussion about whether "go woke, go broke" or the reverse "go broke, go woke" is occurring. The former has readers driven away by biased coverage. In the latter, the old-school journalists leave to expose newspapers to the activist reporters. I suspect a bit of both. Also, you can't blame young people for seizing the opportunity to drive change. There is nothing new about this as passionate and full of vim kids, they want to make a difference. Nevertheless, there is some agreement that in the context of the Western media, the old-school types sought balance and fairness in reporting of events. They adopted a professional approach, anchored in evidence and reliable facts. While, on the contrary, the activists arrive in newsrooms with a campaigning stance plus a willingness to suppress voices they don't believe should be heard. Granted this is an over-simplification, yet its frames the trend. Of course, you could argue that journalists have always had a bias or an angle, and that's true to an extent. But, these days, when a group of people seize control of a newsroom to dictate the editorial line, you have to agree the situation has escalated. In the US several notable newsroom rebellions are on record with young reporters sanctioning their seniors. There is anecdotal evidence that RTHK experienced a similar situation until management re-asserted control. Part of the broader challenge is that people are exercising power through social media that's disproportionate to the merits of their reasoning. What astonishes me is that these threats to free speech do not come from governments. It's a woke-generation seeking to shut down voices. No debate or listening — instead intimidation, exclusion and shut-down. Here's an example — moderate old-school journalist Peter Hitchens greeted by a howling illiberal mob at Oxford University. He needed a police escort to exit the campus. People enacted the same blind adherence to dogma on Hong Kong's streets during the anti-extradition protests. A few brave souls prepared to stand their ground against the mob were burnt, stoned or beaten unconscious. In response, so-called pro-democracy politicians and their supporters in the West turned a blind eye to these horrors. Then when the violence arrived on their streets, it prompted immediate condemnation without a hint of hypocrisy. In our complex world, we are running through a dense forest with our eye-sight failing. We need a clear path before a collision with something substantial is inevitable with awful consequences. To get through this transition, first we need clarity, open debate, all voices heard and less bile for holding different views. We may get there, although at the moment the omens are not favourable. So, in the meantime, the grown-ups need to start taking charge in newsrooms. 21/6/2020 2 Comments Don't Mention The War! "J.K. Rowling also displayed a willingness to stand firm in the face of the howling mob." "Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs" is problematic on many levels. Her name for starters. Then you have the lack of representation of dwarfs of colour, plus no cross-gender dwarfs and the patriarchy thing that runs through the story-line. It's got to go.
That’s an opinion expressed on Twitter. There is also talk of banning "Gone with the Wind" and "Zulu" — for the obvious reasons. But Basil Fawlty — "Don't mention the war" — for now, gets a reprieve. Basil is back but with a warning in case you take offence. Am I the only one who thinks it's all getting a bit bonkers as the puritans of wokeness dictate what we can and can't see, hear and read. And don't you dare complain, or you'll be next. Let me be clear, the awful death of George Floyd raises serious issues, and yet within days the whole saga has degenerated into the puerile. And nobody comes out of this unscathed. Even that bastion of wokeness The Guardian newspaper may need to shut itself down. John Edward Taylor used the profits from slaves on his cotton plantations to found the paper in 1821. Owen Jones and his mates should be ashamed. Some of this is playing out through "cancel culture". Before the Internet dominated everything, we had something similar called "sent to Coventry" or the silent treatment. As a kid, this meant ostracised from the group for a perceived infraction. Sometimes this could be distressing, especially during those fragile teenage years. Maybe I'm wrong, but the girls seemed to use this penalty more than the boys. For the guys, a fight would usually resolve the issue, while the girls went in for psychological torture of their victim. I'm told the term "sent to Coventry" has its origins in the English Civil War. Captured Royalist troops were dispatched to the Parliamentarian jail in Coventry, hence the expression. The Internet, as it's done with most things, has amplified the whole activity. At school, any impact came limited to a locale, but also because people forgot and soon moved on. These days you have no such luck. The vilification has developed into a full-scale onslaught with trial by the many. It's all recorded and kept ready to regurgitate when another round of bashing is necessary. Meanwhile, old TV shows, movies, songs, books, statues and anything you can name is up for re-assessment by the self-appointed unwoke finder-generals who stalk the Internet. Their approach is simple: think the way we do, or we will destroy you because you are part of the problem. Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, decided to join in. He has appointed himself as judge and jury. His approach action is facing some challenge. David Walliams and Matt Luke of "Little Britain" fame have had to throw themselves to the ground begging forgiveness for their earlier comedy shows. In the current climate, such genuflecting is compulsory for people in the entertainment industry if they wish to work. But there are notable and compelling exceptions. Ricky Gervais defends his right to offend people and rarely backs down. As he puts it "Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right." J.K. Rowling also displayed a willingness to stand firm in the face of the howling mob. Rowling has repeatedly stood up for women’s rights when she perceives that militant transgender types are seeking to encroach. In June she wrote on Twitter criticising an article's use of the phrase "people who menstruate" instead of saying "women". This all stems from the belief by transgender activists that "men can menstruate", when they can't. It was awful to watch actors piling in with criticism of Rowling. Daniel Ratcliffe, Harry Potter himself, displayed no loyalty when he jumped on the bandwagon. Actress Noma Dumezweni initially expressed support for Rowling but then changed her stance when the mob went for her — bullying pure and simple, with adults playing. Rowling and Gervais come shielded to a degree by their celebrity status, which confers the ability to get their message across. Ordinary folks have no such options. But why the fascination with trashing someone for holding a different opinion. The psychologists tell us many factors are play. First, people love to see someone higher in the food-chain fall from grace. In part, this is envy plus an earned self-satisfaction from seeking the moral high-ground. At a primitive level, as social animals, we all want to be part of the group, because that confers protection and status. When we join in the targetting of an individual, we show our solidarity and that we conform with community standards. The social rewards are immediate and gratifying and the dangers too distant and abstract. "You could be next" does not compute for most people. Often this is unthinking or rote behaviour. Ultimately, taken to its extreme, it can lead to genocide and other extremes of human responses. The people on the receiving end of the "cancel culture" can suffer terrible consequences. Careers ruined, relationships gone, and psychological impacts are possible. Caroline Flack was not someone on my radar until she committed suicide in February this year. Flack fell from grace as a TV show presenter following allegations she'd assaulted her boyfriend. The later social media firestorm ripped through every part of her life, picking apart and dissecting the minutia. Of course, the gutter press joined in the feeding frenzy that led to the poor woman taking her life. That she'd already flagged up her mental health issues didn't cause anyone, including the newspapers, to back off. If anything they revelled in it. A demonstration of the power of this process came last week. A lady was recorded spitting in the street and verbally insulting people who challenged her. Within a matter of hours, she's identified as a Hong Kong civil servant working for the Government Flying Service. Soon links to her previous public appearances appeared as people set about exposing her conduct as unacceptable in these Covid-19 times. No doubt she now regrets her actions. During Hong Kong's current troubles, we saw doxxing, the cousin of the "cancel culture”, used to menace officials and police officers. This phenomenon gathered pace when protesters turned up at police officers wedding seeking to disrupt the event. In the end, the judiciary issued an injunction to protect the data of police officers. It didn't stop the doxxing, but it has consequences for those who dare to challenge the rule of law. These tools of intimidation work both ways. In Hong Kong, it didn't take long for pro-government types to expose their opponents. Those who'd joined the online shaming found themselves suddenly on the receiving end. As I've said before, once you deploy a weapon be ready for it to come back your way because purges tend to rebound with unforeseen consequences. In the West, there are signs that the silent majority of the population will not continue to accept the unfounded labels and claims thrown at them. Politicians responding to online trends need to remember that people are far from cowed in the voting booth, as Hillary Clinton and Britain's Labour Party found. Simply put, people won’t imbibe on the idea they have some kind of historical guilt. 16/6/2020 1 Comment God's Waiting Room "Never has the term 'God's waiting room' been so poignant." One in ten residents of UK care-homes has died either directly or because of conditions created by the Covid-19 response. That's 16,000 people, mainly old folks. And that's a national disgrace.
This unseen catastrophe is now emerging into the public domain. Instead of fixating on the antics of Dominic Cummings and his ill-advised road trip, would it not serve the public interest more if journalists had focused their attention on care-homes? Cummings consumed much of the media oxygen in recent weeks, while the old suffered. Was that the aim? Has Cummings proved a useful distraction that the journalists fell for? Back in March, estimates of the extra Covid-19 deaths likely to hit the UK ranged from 50,000 to 500,000 in a year. The herd immunity approach envisaged a death toll near the upper figure of 500,000 with 7.9 million people needing hospitalisation. Then Boris Johnson's government panicked. In a flash, the herd immunity policy is gone, and a lock-down came in. In preparation for an expected surge of Covid-19 admissions, the NHS emptied its wards of sick older people, sending them to care-homes. At that time, even before the lock-down started, 801 care-homes already had Covid-19 cases. Then in the first two weeks of the lock-down, a further 1,800 care homes in England alone reported outbreaks. Without PPE for staff or residents, and many homes running with only 60% manning, a disaster was looming. Yet nothing was done. Even before the Covid-19 outbreak, we knew that a good many care-homes operated below par. Under-funded, under-staffed and inadequate to meet the needs of chronic patients, the risks were evident. It's now known that many residents died of dehydration. These vulnerable people, with memory loss, unsupervised and unvisited by relatives, forgot to drink. With existing medical conditions and isolated from families, they soon lapsed. Never has the term 'God's waiting room' been so poignant. By contrast, Hong Kong care-homes keep three months supply of PPE on site. Family visits continued, with masks worn and temperatures checked. You have to recognise that having family come in helps relieve the staff and ensures residents are not neglected. Hong Kong had no care-home Covid-19 outbreaks. Meanwhile, the NHS beds were empty. The NHS Nightingale hospital, built at high speed and with much buzz, was soon mothballed. When the future inquiry sits to consider the UK government's response, the treatment of people in care-homes will make for uncomfortable deliberations. Likewise, the decision to go for a full lock-down needs re-examining. If, as Boris claims, the UK has been 'following the science every step of the way' - what was Hong Kong, South Korea and other places doing? What science did they have at hand? Many jurisdictions opted for either no lock-down or a partial lock-down, and they attained better outcomes. We must ask that question. Estimates suggest the lock-down caused 150,000 deaths, including 60,000 missed cancer diagnoses because the NHS shut down everything to focus on Covid-19. When my Mum turned up at her local outpatients for an emergency test, she found the staff unoccupied and idling. The place was empty. With 298,315 Covid-19 cases as of 16th June and 41,821 deaths, the UK is sitting at the lower end of predicted fatalities. Thus the predicted half-million deaths now appears unlikely. However, had care-homes taken adequate precautions that figure would be substantially lower. Experts are now forecasting awful consequences across a range of ailments because tests, treatments and operations faced suspension. We know that pandemic planning is a numbers game — a cruel numbers game at that. Yet the people lost to the virus must be balanced against the impact of a cure across the wider population. Thus, while I'm critical of Boris and his team, I must reserve some sympathy because I wouldn't want to be in the decision-making chair. And for that reason, any inquiry must focus on learning lessons, instead of splattering everyone with blame. After all, the public can decide at the ballot box whether they wish to punish Boris. On the bright side, the daily number of cases and deaths is easing, although the potential for a second wave is there. Some economies will recovery faster than others. Also, evolution is acting to make the virus less virulent. Viruses struggle to survive, like all living things, and if it kills the hosts, the chances of passing on the virus get reduced. That's why Ebola never manages to spread far. It kills off people; thus, a simple containment strategy and isolation defeats it. Over time, Covid-19 strains that are less virulent will emerge as triumphant to loiter in the human population. On a more troubling note, you could argue that the lock-down prevents evolution from acting to our benefit. By confining people to locations that allow rapid transmission — such as care-homes — the virus can thrive and move on. That's something for the scientists to ponder once all the data is in. In the meantime, wash your hands, practice social distancing and wear a mask — yes, I was wrong about masks—Mea culpa. 11/6/2020 4 Comments Good or Evil? “Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped.” - 1984 by George Orwell. This pulling down statues business intrigues me. Setting aside that judging figures from history by today's woke standards is not a sensible idea, scratch the surface on most so-called heroes, and a complex picture emerges. Let's take a look at a few. Warning — nobody comes out of this with a clean rap sheet.
The bloke who wrote "Give peace a chance" didn't give his spouses much 'peace' with his regular beatings. Both Yoko Ono and Cynthia Lennon suffered at the hand of Lennon's violent abuse. This brutal side of Lennon was on show during his time in Hamburg when he'd attack drunks or others who'd offended him. Lennon would back off when faced with a tough opponent but was happy to kick the shit out of the vulnerable. Later, his treatment of his son Julian Lennon didn't earn John much credit. Lennon was absent, distant and often stoned, leaving his son abandoned. How about the Saintly Mother Teresa? Surely beyond rebuke! The popular image is of a poor, cash-strapped nun trawling the streets of Calcutta, rescuing sick, abandoned children to offer them loving care. Yet, along comes Christopher Hitchens with 'The Missionary Position' to expose something much less palatable. Mother Teresa is documented as having diverted vast sums donated to her clinics to push missionary work instead of buying medication for her dying patients. In truth, you could argue the sick kids were her bait to generate donations. The medical care she provided was lacking despite the millions of dollars people gave her. Her patients were sometimes left to die in agony, while she jetted off in first-class to deal with dodgy regimes and take their money stolen from ordinary folk. It turns out her clinics leveraged pain and misery. She then syphoned the cash off. Also, former members of her order describe baptisms of the dying performed without their consent. In short, she ran a death cult. Gandhi, he must be kosher? You know, the little fellow walking around in a bed-sheet preaching passive resistance. He lamented many things, including that Indians were considered "little better than savages or the Natives of Africa." Thus he sponsored a bill to make Indians superior to blacks under South Africa's apartheid system. A bit racist, you may think. Plus, he appeared to enjoy sleeping naked with underage girls. He claimed this was a 'test' of his will-power. Honest, your Honour. You don't hear that spoken about in polite company. When Kasturba, Gandhi's wife, came down with pneumonia, he denied her penicillin, even though doctors said it would cure her. He insisted the new medicine was an alien substance her body should not take in. She succumbed to the sickness and died in 1944. Later, when he fell sick, he had no such qualms. Lovely man. Doctor Martin Luther King - he must be clean; after all, he has a PhD. When people discovered that this politician had a PhD from Boston University, his words carried more weight. Unfortunately in 1991, a Boston University committee found he'd plagiarised much of his dissertation. They advised against revoking the late Dr King's credentials. They did, however, place on record a summary of their findings. Add to that his public affairs with young women in his movement, and a picture emerges of a much more complex man. Nelson Mandela? Mandela indeed rose to greatness. Freed after 27 years in a South African jail, the anti-apartheid fighter emerged calling for healing. He negotiated a peaceful end to apartheid and practised reconciliation. In this, he was great. A healer. None of that should whitewash from history his use of violence early in his career. Mandela is on record as suggesting cutting off the noses of blacks deemed collaborators with whites. Thus the verdict is in. John Lennon was a wife-beater and a crap dad. Mother Teresa, a religious fanatic who ran a death cult, Gandhi was a racist with dodgy sleeping habits, while Dr Martin Luther King cheated on his PhD. Do these folks deserve a statue? Just asking. And that brings me to my main point. Most of our heroes come with flaws; some have deep flaws. In 20 years will the post-modernists and the social justice warriors be pulling down statues of Gandhi, John Lennon and Mother Teresa? Probably because this is a beast that eats its own tail. Let's face it, nothing is ever straightforward, and no one is 100% clean. Lastly, if we are to remove statues and whitewash history, why stop with statues, let do the books next. It is a terrible shame we don't have any lessons from history to guide us once this process starts. 9/6/2020 0 Comments Winners & Losers? Neither! "Some are asking, who won and lost? To me, that's the wrong approach." With the anniversary of the 2019 extradition bill protests and riots upon us, the media is full of deliberations. Some are asking, who won and lost? To me, that's the wrong approach. Given the staggering complexity of the events, the number of players and their agendas, the best we can hope for is an interim understanding. After all, the game is still in play.
Between June 2019 and May 2020, Police arrested 8,981 people for various protest related offences. In dispersing rioters, officers fired 16,223 rounds of tear smoke, plus over 10,000 rubber bullets, sponge grenades and beanbag rounds. On 19 occasions officers used live ammunition. No protester was killed by police action. Yet, we know there are some losers. The kids in jail, those fretting about court appearances, divided families — these folks lost. They've lost sleep, lost family unity and lost money to defend a kid in court. The protest movements promise of legal aid soon evaporated for minor players as funds ran out. Only the 'star' protesters, those who garner international media attention, merited support. Meanwhile, the foot-soldiers, who did much of the fighting with the Police, are now on their own. Only Mum and Dad are there to bail them out. The Police suffered a great deal but didn't falter. Facing an unprecedented level of coordinated violence at work and home, nowhere was safe for officers. Some 550 officers were hurt: one was slashed on the neck, an arrow shot another, and a third had part of a finger bitten off. At the same time, Police children faced unprofessional teachers, who brought politics into the classroom, even at the kindergarten level. These kids will carry the mental scars of abuse at the hands of these teachers for years to come. Ironically the attacks on police homes rebounded. Officers saw the threat posed by the protest movement to their families, and with their back to the wall, they galvanised into a single entity. Then, under the bold leadership of Commissioner Chris Tang, that process accelerated. The result is confident and resolute officers prepared to maintain 'law and order.' Any talk of defeating the Police on the streets is nonsense. Then the mantra of Hong Kong police brutality fell mute given the unfolding events in the US. Rational people recognised that while the Hong Kong Police Force didn't always get it right, they've proved far more professional than their US counterparts. It's especially pleasing to see the baleful cries from Washington politicians exposed as gross affected piety. Our once-respected Judiciary also took a beating. Allegations of bias by judges came in from all sides. And as consequence, the Chief Justice had to remove judges from certain cases. The fact that the Bar Association turned political didn't help matters. With many in the legal fraternity displaying their political stance, faith in the system will continue to face jeopardy. None of this is healthy. There is general agreement that the Judiciary will need to exercise greater caution in future to avoid the appearance of being partisan. Perhaps the biggest losers, in the long run, will be the Pan Dem politicians who over-played their hand and gave tacit support to the violence. Their antics in LegCo legitimised terrible behaviour. Besides, their silence on protester violence made them complicit in murder, burnings and rioting. Until the Pan Dems signal a willingness to forego violence, their reputation is stained with blood. With Beijing forced to step in, the Pan Dems brought to their door the very thing they feared the most. Many of us think they only have themselves to blame. In the process, they've left Beijing deeply suspicious of Hong Kong, by giving foreign powers leverage with which to attack China. Folks in Washington and London see the Pan Dems as a useful tool. But with the national security legislation, in future the Pan Dems will need to step carefully when summoning up foreign help. In the process, we will hear screams of faux-horror with predictions for the end of Hong Kong. This 'dooms-day' rhetoric is all the Pan Dems have left to offer. I suspect the Pan Dems most significant loss is yet to come. In September, using disqualification, I predict certain Pan Dems will face a ban from standing in the LegCo election. Many of them supported independence; thus, there is plenty of evidence to use for disqualification. By this approach, the pro-government forces will keep a majority in LegCo. If we wish to see anyone as a winner in this struggle, you could opt for Taiwan. Arguably the strife in Hong Kong played into the narrative 'you can't trust Beijing’ that Tsai Ing-wen exploits to ruthless effect. She's savvy, yet cunning. While offering words of support to Hong Kong protesters, she also cut off their escape route to Taiwan. Those seeking to interfere in Hong Kong affairs, especially from the US and UK, had some traction until Covid-19 kicked in. "They haven't got a clue in the US how to deal with this, at least the Hong Kong government is on the ball". That's from an American friend who rushed to the US as Covid-19 kicked-off in January 2020, then fled back to Hong Kong in March. The recent riots in the US affirmed her view that the US is like "the last days of Rome." That's an amplification that covers a greater truth: Trump's 'clown-world' government is slipping. Thus, as the world fumbles for a way out of the Covid-19 crisis and protests rattle Trump's windows, Hong Kong faded from the international news coverage. The protest movement relied on the global media to garner support that they hoped would pressure Beijing. I have no doubt that in future the West will adopt a more cautious attitude towards China. This is driven by a multitude of factors rather than Hong Kong issues alone. You can see that Hong Kong is a pawn in a bigger game. That's why empty gestures like the BNO 'right of abode' offer from the UK ring hollow. So, in summary, Hong Kong remains a deeply polarised society. The inescapable truth is that China out-maneuvered the Pan Dems with the National Security laws. The threat of these laws and police action are damping down violent protests. Of course, none of that resolves the underlying political and societal issues. But a period of relative calm may open the space for rational discussion. We can only hope that moderate people step forward because the playbook of filibuster, violent protest and attack is a dead-end street. 4/6/2020 0 Comments A lot of hot air! "All protest must be conducted within the limits of the law" Boris Johnson, UK Parliament, June 3rd 2020. My head is spinning. A lot is going on at the moment: the USA is in meltdown, the UK is to offer citizenship to Hong Kong folks, and Covid-19 is still out there. Meanwhile, here in Hong Kong, it's protest season. The lead-in starts with the June 4th vigil in Victoria Park; then we have the main event on July 1st, which is usually a large march. Given the circumstances of last year, the national security law proposals and the general mood, July 1st is guaranteed to be a violent event. It will start peaceful, and then the 'black-shirt' thugs will appear to smash up stuff. Next, expect a swift response from the Police. Denied permission for the vigil under Covid-19 precautions, organiser LEE Jerk-yan is planning to go ahead. LEE has displayed consistent contempt for the law and would do well to remember Boris Johnson's recent comments that 'all protest must be conducted within the limits of the law.' But I doubt LEE and the 'black-shirt' shock-troops of the opposition are too bothered. After all, LEE needs a gathering to collect donations at his biggest earner of the year. Given all this, we must express our sincere thanks to President Trump. He has shown us the way. Over the past eight months, the US heaped criticism on the tactics used by the hard-pressed Hong Kong Police Force and often spoke of ‘international standards’. We've now seen that it's acceptable to use tear gas to clear a route through peaceful protesters so that Trump can get to church. Never mind that he's staging a photo op by brandishing a bible. At that moment, if God existed surely, he'd have struck the man down with a bolt of lightning. I rest my case: Trump is greater than God! Which brings me to the 'international standards' for the use of force by the Police. If what we saw in Washington is fine, then the Hong Kong Police Force has nothing to fear. In fact, they need to up their game to match their US counterparts. Because in eight months of rioting and mayhem in Hong Kong, I don't recall the Police killing anyone. Of course, I'm ignoring the infantile fantasies about death trains and dead bodies in the harbour. By the way, anyone seen or heard from the 'eye-lady' recently? I'm told she's gone into hiding. I want to ask her why no lawsuit against the Police? If she has a case, bring it forward and let's examine the evidence away from the polluted waters of social media. Were I a suspicious man, I may think she's covering something up. I don't know, but, oddly, she's disappeared. Maybe she's hoping for a BNO (now called 'Boris's Nonsensical Opportunism') with its pathway to British citizenship. We're told that some 350,000 Hong Kong folks hold a BNO and another 2.4 million are eligible. Given that the UK passport office struggles to renew passports, expect some significant expansion if the Home Office is going to clear all the anticipated applications. But before we get there, Boris needs to consider the details of the scheme. Because in all honesty, the UK can't handle an influx of some 3 million. Common sense tells us the plan will be limited, and the expectations of Hong Kong people will not feature. Let's not forget that the UK missed the boat on offering nationality in 1981, 1989, and just before the 1997 handover. Always the domestic reaction tempered any scheme. That's why the above selection of comments from a British newspaper tells a story about where the BNO scheme is going. Let's look at some hard truths and move away from the infantile talk from Johnson. Assuming the UK took in 3 million Hong Kong people, that's a city the size of Birmingham and its suburbs. We know the UK already has a substantial housing shortage, and it struggles to keep the power on with its current population. In August 2019, parts of the country suffered rolling black-outs with millions of customers losing power including railways and hospitals. That's the tip of the iceberg according to media reports. A lack of investment and poor management means that the UK's power supply is in jeopardy. Can the system handle millions of new customers? I must say those carbon targets are looking less achievable. Also, with unemployment about to climb to unprecedented levels, watch the reaction of natives because many face displacement further down the food chain by hardworking Hong Kong folk. It's a recipe for social unrest. In 1972, the UK struggled to deal with 27,000 Ugandan Asians. When Uganda expelled 60,000 Asians, the British sought the cooperation of the Commonwealth to help house them. Only the Falklands responded positively. I'll watch with interest as Boris aims to build a consensus amongst nations. Having just burnt his bridges with Europe, it may prove a tad difficult. The last time Britain sought to displace millions of people it didn't turn too well. Britain's first reaction to the Ugandan Asians was hostile. Leicester city council, on hearing that many intended to move there, placed adverts warning of no houses, no jobs and full schools. 'In your own interests and those of your family you should... not come to Leicester,' it stated. Over time these new arrivals prospered. In the meantime, Hong Kong people need to know certain things. They will be paying much more tax, can expect to experience higher levels of crime and note that the Police don't turn up if you are the victim of a burglary. The cops are far too busy checking for hurt feelings on the internet to deal with stuff like break-ins. While on that subject, Hong Kongers will need to moderate their language to avoid breaching UK laws. Perhaps they should note the term 'Gwailo' is deemed 'hate speech' and is the sort of thing the Brit cops bother to investigate. And spitting at the Police will earn you jail time, unlike in Hong Kong. Just saying. Having made the grand gesture, Boris is now to face a domestic backlash to diminish the citizenship offer. And once again the Hong Kong people will have had their hopes raised for no reason other than grandstanding by a politician. |
AuthorWalter De Havilland was one of the last of the colonial coppers. He served 35 years in the Royal Hong Kong Police and Hong Kong Police Force. He's long retired. Archives
January 2021
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