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Walter's Blog

"But how can you live and have no story to tell?" Fyodor Dostoevsky

Reflections on recent events, plus the occasional fact free rant unfiltered by rational argument.

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28/11/2022 3 Comments

The Laptop That Won't Shut Down!

"Imagine a law enforcement agency exercising implicit control over discussions on social media."

We all love a good conspiracy tale because it can be entertaining if nothing else. And sometimes, the yarns prove true in surprising and unexpected ways.

But, during the 2020 U.S. Presidential election run-up, I bought nothing about Hunter Biden's laptop. The story of porn allied to dodgy deals sounded too confected, obvious and weird. Moreover, the timing of the revelations and those pushing the messages, including extreme Trumps supporters, caused me to dismiss the purported evidence of corruption as over-hyped opportunist nonsense.

That the ultras of QAnon latched onto the saga to suggest that the laptop contained proof supporting their wild claims of a covert paedophile ring run by Hilary Clinton proved the final straw. To me, this looked and smelt like a load of rubbish.

Now, my opinions are changing because a transformed story is coming to light that speaks to the deceitful manipulation of public opinion.

The story's core is that Hunter Biden, the current U.S. President's son, took three damaged laptops for repair in April 2019. One of the laptops contained many self-produced porn videos featuring Hunter, 120,000 emails and 30,000 text messages.

Hunter never returned to collect the computers. Instead, a copy of the hard drive from the incriminating computer made its way into the hands of Trump supporters via Rudy Giuliani. Then, in October 2020, at a critical moment in the lead-up to U.S. presidential election, the New York Post ran the laptop story claiming Hunter used his Dad's status as vice president to further their business interests.

The story had many salacious ingredients; allegations of corruption, sex and influential people. However, there is no question that the laptop came from Hunter, and despite his attempts to fudge the issue with ambiguous statements, he's never outright denied ownership.

None of the allegations against Hunter was new. Joe Biden's opponents raised the issue for years without landing a substantive blow. But now they concluded that here is the smoking gun, with incriminating emails plus the side issue of Hunter's porn and drug addictions. Trump's people believed they had enough material to torpedo Joe Biden's presidential campaign, although it soon became clear many media outlets didn't want to entertain the story.

When the New York Post reports appeared, social media users experienced difficulties circulating the allegations, while many mainstream media ignored it. Social media outlets tweaked their algorithms to play down the story. At the time, many believed they acted to avoid the bad faith allegations made against them during the 2016 presidential election.

Yet, unbeknown to the public, the FBI seized the three computers quietly in December 2019. In 2022, Mark Zuckerberg claimed that an FBI warning notice about a possible Russian disinformation campaign prompted Facebook to remove content relating to the laptop story.

Imagine a law enforcement agency exercising implicit control over discussions on social media in the land of the free.

Then, a cohort of retired intelligence officials asserted that the laptop story had all the hallmarks of a Russian disinformation campaign. Their credentials and standing gave weight to the claims the Russians planted the laptop.

At that point, most observers ignored the story, partly because they didn't want any association with the nonsense QAnon projected. Besides, experts claimed that the compromising emails could be easily faked.

Hence, with the truth of the story dismissed by reporters, pundits, and informed intelligence types, it retreated into the background. Meanwhile, Joe Biden garnered sympathy by talking about Hunter's struggles with his demons, and everyone felt a father's genuine distress.

Well, now the Laptop saga is back in the news. But, unfortunately, what is emerging does no credit to the mainstream media, the social media companies and former members of the U.S. intelligence community.

I find myself in an odd place by complimenting and recommending BBC coverage in the podcast "The Coming Storm." The early episodes in the series did a deep dive into the QAnon movement, leading up to the storming of Capitol Hill in January 2021. It's well worth a listen. It's available on Spotify and the BBC iPlayer

In the latest episodes, reporter Gabriel Gatehouse has his hands on the contents of Hunter's laptop, which he examines in fine detail. What he uncovers takes the narrative in a different direction as he exposes the collusion of the mainstream media, social media companies and other pundits in dismissing the story. Yep, you heard right; the BBC is revealing this!

Of course, the wild claims of the QAnon mob get rejected by Gatehouse; there is no evidence of involvement by Hunter with young girls. Nonetheless, the computer emails prove that the younger Biden facilitated a Ukrainian businessman's access to his father, the then-vice president. Moreover, the emails suggest that Joe Biden may have had a behind-the-scenes role as 'the big man' in the business dealings while serving as vice president.

The whole saga has left an impression that powerful interests cooperated to keep the truth from the U.S. public at a critical moment. Finally, more media outlets are starting to recognise the significance of these allegations, with the New York Post mocking them for their earlier reticence.

This month, CBS News published the results of a forensic analysis they commissioned of a copy of the laptop data. The investigation found "no evidence that the user data had been modified, fabricated or tampered with", and no new files were created on the laptop after April 2019. The chief technology officer conducting the analysis stated, "I do not doubt in my mind that Hunter Biden created this data and that it came from a computer under Mr Biden's control".

Meantime, Elon Musk claims he will publish all correspondence with Twitter regarding the alleged suppression of the laptop story.

In many ways, the Hunter Biden laptop saga demonstrates everything that can go wrong in the political domain. First up — dismissing true stories as conspiracies can come back to bite, although not in the ways you think. Second, the attempts at a cover-up do make things worse because when the truth or a truth emerges to discredit a line of defence. Lastly, be careful of anything from so-called 'experts' who are players in the game.

The laptop story isn't going away. So, whilst the worst of the allegations around the saga proved untrue, nonetheless, there is enough meat for Biden's opponents to chew on. Also, the now-exposed attempts to shut down the story are grist for the mill of the tin foil hat brigade.

And with the Republicans taking control of the House of Representatives, be ready for more probing than one of Hunter's porn videos, as this story will run.

3 Comments

18/11/2022 1 Comment

Battle Fatigue

"As Thucydides put it, “The strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must”.

As I speculated some weeks ago, the West is showing signs of war fatigue over Ukraine. The economic impact of the struggle, the military stalemate, the passage of time and the assessment that Ukraine can't win are all factors.

The U.S.’s top general, Mark Milley, made it clear this week that a military victory for the Ukrainians is unlikely.

Sure, the Ukrainians mounted a robust and inspiring defence with notable battlefield victories. But these successes do not alone win the war.

There are signs that the U.S. and others are nudging the Ukrainians towards considering some form of a ceasefire as an opening gambit for peace talks. And yet, the rhetoric from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is uncompromising. On the surface, he is unwilling to consider any negotiations, which is understandable given his position and the need to keep his forces motivated.

Also evidence of atrocities and other war crimes naturally make the Ukrainians reluctant to compromise. That is understandable with Zelenskiy adamant those responsible be brought to justice. Although the track record shows only the small people take a hit.

Pol Pot escaped trial for his crimes and no one has been held accountable for various massacres perpetrated by the British empire in living memory. As Thucydides put it, “The strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must”.’

I'm a great admirer of Zelenskiy. He understands the impact of social media messaging in the modern era, leveraging his rough-cut image to win pundits and admirers. Zelenskiy ticks many boxes for an effective wartime leader, and Putin underestimated him. Still, rhetoric and steadfastness only go so far, especially when your benefactors grow weary.

The public mood over Ukraine is shifting in the U.S. and Europe. Polls show a gradual but notable lessening of concern. But, likewise, worries are rising that the conflict could lead to a U.S. war with Russia.

The peripheral impacts are less visible but are a consequence of the war. UNICEF reports that four million children face poverty because of increased food and fuel costs. Kids in Eastern Europe and Central Asia are hit hardest.

Against that background, Zelenskiy, who relies on the West for arms, may need to concede quietly. After all, the Americans provided most of his weapons to keep him in the game. From the outset, they've proven measured in their provision of kit and weapons systems. They've provided enough to ensure the Ukrainians don't falter but not enough to mount a decisive blow to the Russians.

It is clear that the Americans don't want to see Putin trapped, partly because that may prompt him to go in harder or fall from power. And if Putin goes, what comes next may prove more belligerent and troublesome.

The extent of the American's understanding of the Ukrainian battlefield is impressive. For example, this week, when a missile landed in Poland, the Ukrainians immediately blamed the Russians setting off speculation that NATO must act. Then within hours, Biden made it known the 'trajectory of the missile' suggested it came from the Ukrainians.

That Biden made such a definitive statement demonstrates the level of surveillance underway. Plus, the confidence in that surveillance and a keenness to avoid a mistaken escalation.

Also, despite Western media reports that Putin is low on ammunition and rockets, the evidence suggests otherwise. This week he was able to mount another round of cruise missile attacks aimed at crippling civilian infrastructure.

What does this prove? Much of the western media are unreliable narrators, with some pumping out propaganda without attempting proper journalistic practices of verification or balance.

Of course, the Russians do the same. But the western media love to wrap themselves in the mantle of 'objective reporting' when they indulge in the same misleading practices. If you believed the U.K.'s Daily Mail, Putin should be dead now from cancer or other ailments he displayed according to their so-called medical experts.

All wars end with negotiations. You agree on terms as a victor or a defeated party or to break the conflict. Either way, talks happen.

China's role is pivotal. Beijing made it clear that while it supports Putin, that support is not unequivocal. On the nuclear question, Beijing won't countenance threats, extracting an assurance from Moscow that nukes are not in play. Behind the scenes, China is probably cooperating with the U.S. to de-escalate the war, creating the conditions for talks.

On that score, the need for calm, quiet diplomacy is evident. President Xi made the merits of such practices clear when he admonished Canada's Trudeau for leaking their talks to the media. A scalded Trudeau dashed away, looking chastened.

So, how long will Ukraine hold off on coming to some settlement? We are some months away from that, yet we will get there. However unpalatable, realpolitiks will dictate the outcome.

1 Comment

14/11/2022 2 Comments

Walk of Shame

Daily Mail headline: “Matt Hancock tucks into camel penis, sheep vagina, and cow's anus during tonight's gruesome eating trial on I'm A Celeb while vegetarian Boy George chows down on vomit fruit”

For the uninitiated, Matt Hancock is a former British health secretary and currently suspended Conservative MP. Hancock is another product of the PPE course at Oxford — the factory that churns out political drones of no fixed ability but colossal self-entitlement. Other notable specimens are Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and most of the clowns in the British parliament.

With parliament in session and the country facing many serious challenges, you'd expect Hancock to be hard at work in Westminster representing his West Suffolk constituents.

Instead, he is some 10,000 miles away undergoing degrading and bizarre "I'm a Celeb, Get me out of here" challenges in an Australian jungle.

So while the U.K. teeters on the edge of an economic meltdown, as waves of migrants arrive unchecked, with food banks springing up everywhere and power blackouts coming, Hancock is munching on Kangaroos testicles and bits of possum. But why, you may ask?

Mimicking Queen Cersei's naked walk of shame through King's Landing in Games of Thrones, Hancock is playing the atonement game. Maybe he feels finished as a significant political hitter; thus, reinvention is his only option.

Still, social media comments suggest that the British public hasn't forgotten that Hancock was responsible for many of the draconian covid rules the country faced. For example, as the elderly died in old folk's homes, Hancock banned relatives from having a final word or holding a frail hand. Yet, he and his party didn't comply; they partied.

Meanwhile, Hancock's hands were busy grabbing the rear end of his assistant as the pair went full snog mode in his office. But, then again, he has a lengthy track record of indiscretions and rule-breaking.

But this incident was the final straw; he resigned. Next, he abandoned his wife and three kids, including an adopted child, to run off with the assistant, a married lady. What a lovely man!

At the time, elements in the British media sought to blame the Chinese for the leak of Hancock's bum-grabbing. In a convulsion of conspiracy theories, the Daily Mail suggested a planted or tampered Chinese camera caught Hancock out. So twisted is the Daily Mail's thinking they claimed Beijing wished to bring down the British government. Instead, reality proved mundane - as disgruntled staff members likely leaked the footage.

Anyway, Beijing needn't bother attacking the British government. They've proven more than capable of self-harm.

Is it a staggering display of conceit by Hancock that believes he can rehabilitate his image and career by further public humiliation? One wag suggested he had about much chance as Prince Andrew.

But is Hancock on to something? Does he assess that the British public is so naive and gullible they will fall for his antics, taking pity as he's drenched in bat poo and chased by snakes? Although, in truth, Hancock is in no real danger because the choreographed show removes any genuine threats.

The Guardian and other supposed level-headed papers are giving him column inches. And, of course, Hancock has a book out; thus, any publicity is welcome. He's even got me giving him the oxygen of publicity to my three readers.

Nonetheless, what does it say about the politicians and British society that Hancock believes he can win back public support in such a manner? There is something dark about the allure of power and the insidious way people will degrade themselves before its tainted aura.

Unlike ordinary people, who suffer what they must, pride and hubris drive those seeking adulation and entry into elitist circles. Even if Satan offers you a choice, you engage with him using your free will. This means that when your humiliation and defilement are underway, you brought it on yourself; you chose this freely.

Likewise, those who warm to Hancock's vainglory debase themselves as fickle. They've already pushed aside his infidelities, lies and deceitfulness.

So, if it works for Hancock, we may see Prince Andrew in the jungle next. But, unfortunately, he may have to leave his 72 teddy bears at home.

Hancock covered in less shit than he left the U.K. covered in.

2 Comments

9/11/2022 1 Comment

Good times never seemed so good!

"Give kids the freedom to run around the playground and have fun without a mask"

This weekend as the South Stand opened at full throttle; they drowned out the negative nellies. Good times never seemed so good!

The Hong Kong Rugby Union deserve our heartfelt thanks and appreciation for taking up the challenge to stage the event now. Full credit to fellow Yorkshireman Robbie McRobbie, CEO of the Rugby Union.

The Hong Kong Sevens started in 1976 at the Hong Kong Football Club due to a few beers around the bar one night. That decision paved the way for Hong Kong to develop what became the gold standard of Rugby Sevens tournaments globally.

Since those early days, the Sevens developed an iconic status as Hong Kong’s biggest party. And for sure Hong Kong needed a party after years of Covid, layered atop civil unrest and the financial downturn. And what a party. Yes, the numbers were down, as the naysayers pointed out. But, of course, you expect that with seating capacity limitations allied to ongoing travel restrictions. Yet, you wouldn't know that from the vibe in the stadium.

A few pundits got their knickers in a twist as folks sometimes flouted the mask rules. Still, exercising an appropriate level of discretion was the right approach. As The Hong Kong Standard pointed out, the public is ahead of the administration on readiness for relaxation. Still, even the Security of Security, Chris Tang, (sans masks) took a walk through the South Stand, posing for photographs with spectators.

Last week's Global Financial Leaders Summit, the Sevens and this week's legal conference affirm that the government is pulling out all the stops to market Hong Kong's strengths. Thankfully attempts by western politicians to use Hong Kong as a tool in their struggle to suppress China fell flat. They'd called for boycotts, which failed.

What of the future? With our prime location in the heart of Asia, infrastructure, transport links, efficient services, and wide use of English, the sky is the limit to developing new and engaging events in Hong Kong.

Several massive new venues will come on stream over the next 3-5 years. Thus, we need a plan to win back lost talent for the Kai Tak Sports Park, West Kowloon Cultural District, AsiaWorld-Expo/11 Skies and East Kowloon Cultural Centre.

Over 200,000 jobs have been lost in the tourism, convention and exhibition sectors during Covid. Hence, acute staffing shortages will dog the industry for some time, and there is still uncertainty about the pace and scope of the return to normal.

In the meantime, voices are calling for us to develop a comprehensive strategy for the events sector. Airline capacity constraints, Covid rules, competing destinations, workforce supply limits and a strong currency will hamper the rebound. A return of the millions of Mainland visitors is improbable any time soon.

So, use this time wisely to understand how we want to position Hong Kong as an events capital, set ambitious goals, and make those goals come true.

In the immediate future, scrap the vast majority of Covid restrictions, such as the onerous and costly PCR tests for people competing in events or working in the entertainment and hospitality industries.

Covid restrictions were justified early on when the disease was new, vaccine rates low, and treatment protocols were being tweaked. But we've progressed a long way since 2020 and 2021. Covid is endemic - RAT tests will suffice if testing is still required.

Further, we need to start normalising not wearing masks. Give kids the freedom to run around the playground and have fun without a mask. Finally, and most importantly, the worst is over; let us celebrate the success of Hong Kong.

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