How The Walls Come Down
Civilisations Fall & Why
(Or Fade to Mush)
"From barbarism to civilisation requires a century; from civilisation to barbarism needs but a day." Will Durant.
Empires rise, and empires fall. Civilisations come and civilisations go.
Some people watching the 2021 attack on Capitol Hill rushed to conclude that the long-predicted U.S. fall had arrived. These attitudes hardened as the hurried ignominious departure of the U.S. from Afghanistan played out on the news as a ragtag Taliban army pushed out the planet's supreme military power.
Inevitably the question arises, has America squander 30 years of world dominance? After winning the Cold War, did the U.S. engage in pointless, misdirected foreign ventures that wasted energy and goodwill? And did this herald the end of U.S. domination over world affairs? Many would agree it looks like it.
The storming of the U.S. capitol building involved disgruntled ex-military types. Ashli Babbitt, 35, an Air Force veteran, was shot and killed by police as she clambered through a broken window. These events had the hallmarks of the last days of Rome; in the final years of the Roman empire, ex-soldiers laid claim to power, raided buildings and led much of the unrest.
Civilisations fall because of natural disasters, self-destruction, external threats or a combination of these elements. However, robust societies can resist and overcome natural and external threats; hence, internal factors are often the prime cause of the fall.
There is a wealth of material to dwell on when considering why civilisations come and go. Rome, the Incas, the Khmer empire and many others provide clues. According to academics, over 32 advanced civilisations have come and gone. The question is, who is next in line and can we predict a coming fall?
Often unfathomable reasons, both internal and external, bring about the collapse. Yet, when deriving lessons from history, it is possible to see some patterns emerge. Still, it is challenging to discern the likely timing of outcomes amid events until they arrive and overwhelm us.
Nonetheless, look, and you will see the signs. A decade before the collapse of Rome, one in three citizens received 'welfare' payments in the form of free corn. Emperor after emperor, printing money to maintain lavish spending created inflation and poverty. Sound familiar?
Inflation is not the rise in prices; these are the symptoms of inflation. In Rome, a diluted coinage using less valuable metals is the modern equal of printing money. To understand this mechanism, watch this video and then consider what the U.S. is doing today to shore up the dollar.
Did the Roman thinkers recognise these events as an indicator that decay from within was well underway? Or, in the confusion of events, and a slow march to the cliff, did they become confused and distracted?
Sure, the Romans saw the threats on their borders with encroaching barbarians. But, despite a gut feeling that something was wrong, this didn't allow complete comprehension that internal policies also undermined the system. Indeed, these helped create the conditions that allowed external threats to develop.
So, back to the question. Is it possible to predict that a country or society will collapse? Here I examine the path to ruin, which I stress is not always the end of a particular state or country. In some instances, a reset occurs that sees a diminished entity emerge.
I ask you to consider a well-underway shift from an Atlantic-dominated world, with the U.S. at the top, to an Asia-dominated scene. Whether China or India takes the lead position is a moot point. Both have challenges that may derail their projected rise if, indeed, that is what they seek. Besides, a multi-polar world could appear with no dominant empire. But, for sure, an emerging new order will evolve.
For clarity, I do not seek to be a prophet of doom claiming apocalyptic outcomes. Instead, I foresee a gradual stagnation and decline to Western societal torpor. For starters, Europe is post-Christian, having to a degree lost its way, as the U.S. goes down the same path and, in some aspects, is ahead of Europe. The core value consensus that once underpinned Western liberal societies is no longer there. Replacing it is a mush of issues inserted in the culture, mingling in a broth of conceit.
Notably, the self-absorbed Western societies haven't awoken to the fact that Asia and elsewhere are moving ahead in many domains. Take a moment to consider examples in airports and other critical infrastructure; Heathrow or Changi, Charles de Gaulle or Chek Lap Kok.
On the cultural front, observe how political correctness and woke ideology have entered mainstream Western life through processes and laws. As a result, at times, the minority is favoured over the majority. In stark contrast, Asian nations adopt a rational approach that serves the needs of the majority while placing minority issues in context.
Indeed, all cultures create stories that help them deal with a complex random world. These stories anchor beliefs, providing unity around a shared purpose, although many elements contain myths.
The U.S. claims to be the greatest nation, the acclaimed 'city on the hill, the beacon of democracy'. It turns out that even a cursory review of the metrics soon exposes the truth. Antiquated roads, bridges and airports do not match the fable. On health care, the U.S. scores low across a range of measurements, including child mortality, premature deaths and the cost of medical care. Remarkably, life expectancy in parts of West Virginia is lower than in Pakistan and much of Africa.
Besides, the U.S. has one of the highest wealth gaps, with a 2021 Gini coefficient of 0.48 - the highest in 50 years. Then there is a political system dominated by a few, who exercise power through funding and lobbying. So, as Professor Ray La Raja of the University of Massachusetts observed, "The U.S. system is democratic only in form, not in substance."
It is well known that sub-replacement fertility rates, coupled with a sex ratio imbalance, present risks for a civilisation. But, again, Rome suffered such imbalances before it fell. Thus, it can't go unremarked that China has created such a scenario with the 'one-child policy'. Atop that, a volatile housing market and the wide gap between prosperous cities and rural areas remains an issue. Whether China can resolve these issues with such initiatives as 'common prosperity' remains to be seen.
For India, the risks are class divisions, the wealth gap and religious tensions. Fuel costs, a credit crunch around bad debts and currency fluctuations also cloud the horizon. Hence, whether China or India takes the top position remains questionable.
Another point is that while the political and economic might of India and China, and the demographic weight of Africa, are all undeniable and poised to reshape the world, there is not yet any non-Western cultural influence to match the U.S. output. Instead, Hollywood, Coca-Cola and others provide a heft that gives the U.S. a deceptive sparkle.
None of the emerging powers can match that. And the U.S. understands such 'soft power' as it scrambles to shut down China's Confucius Institutes.
Well, who can help us untangle these issues? The often-cited Oswald Spengler, a German philosopher (1880-1936), predicted that Western civilisation would enter a pre-death period around 2000. He envisaged the rise of Caesars — all-powerful executives who governed with omnipotence within a passive democratic framework. He foresaw that the system would fail after another 200 years.
I mention Spengler because he provides a valuable reference and proves a point; many models and ideas around civilisational collapse are not well anchored and proved wrong. Although, in fairness, each study helps us comprehend the complexities.
Going forward, in 1990, Joseph Tainter opined that human societies are complex entities that need finely attuned, well-maintained sociopolitical systems. Further, as societies grow more complex, extra costs arise that reach a point of marginal returns. In short, society runs out of ideas, is exhausted and folds.
The mathematician Peter Turchin and historian Jack Goldstone took this project to the next level by using numbers to predict cycles within societies. Using mathematical studies and applying system thinking, they've correlated factors such as income inequality with periods of instability.
They correctly predicted a turbulent period for the U.S. around 2020 and cautioned other Western nations are in trouble. But, while this modelling paints a broad picture of events, it cannot foretell when a collapse or fall will occur.
Of course, it's a fool's errand to ascribe specific events as pivot points in such a complex, evolving process. Nonetheless, we must anchor on some perimeters to avoid wandering into the weeds of esoteric debates.
This brings us to Sir John Glubb's civilisational growth and collapse model. Glubb, born in 1897, served in the British army during World War I and later took an administrative post in the Iraq Government. From 1939 to 1956, he commanded the Jordan Arab legion, the forerunner to the current Jordanian army. Glubb published seventeen books.
Glubb's civilisation theory appeared in a 1976 essay. He studied eleven empires, starting with the Assyrians in 859 B.C. and ending with the British in the 1950s. Sir John determined that each followed a similar pattern from birth to demise. Spanning an average of ten generations or 250 years, they went through five stages.
Glubb's theory has several issues that need addressing. For instance, defining when a civilisation starts and finishes is far from precise. Likewise, the evolving stages overlap to a degree, although he is on more solid ground when asserting that the five steps have identifiable features. Again, the model may appear superficial, given the vast complexities of the subject. These limitations are acknowledged.
Stage One: The Age of Pioneers and Conquest
This era is when a civilisation lays its foundations. Adventurers began conquering land and sea, exploring and opening trade routes. Wars are fought, alliances made and broken, as power transfers. For Britain, in Glubb's model, the starting point is the 1700s, as the empire emerged as a distinct entity that reached its height with Queen Victoria.
What is most relevant is the characteristic of the age of pioneers. Displays of energy, courage and aggressiveness abound in a landscape populated by the likes of Clive of India, Lord Nelson and Isaac Newton. As pioneering new techniques appear, applied with confidence, the new empire overpowers others, including declining states.
Stage Two: Age of Commerce
As trade grows, wealth accumulates, and large cities emerge, it is then necessary to introduce administrative measures to control commerce, with a legal system taking shape. What is more, military power acts to support traders. Examples include the British Navy attacking Chinese forts and sinking ships to secure the opium trade.
In India, a private company operated an army to keep the locals in order and business running.
In turn, the wealth generated feeds the arts and cultural scene. Grand buildings appear that celebrate power and prowess as the British Museum fills with the plunder of conquered places. The high noon of prosperity has arrived.
Stage Three: Age of Affluence
By now, the benefits of the empire are trickling down, with most British people seeing a steady improvement in health, wealth and prospects. But, at the same time, the grip of religion is weakening as money takes over as a societal driver.
This period is the time when welfare arises as a preoccupation. All political parties embrace the general principle that no one is left behind as a welfare state develops. This project reaches its peak with free medical care and unemployment benefits.
Simultaneously, a postmodern culture is taking hold. And this is the very thing that Nietzsche predicted would weaken societies; there is no meaning to life, God is dead, and people flock to the new religions of 'wokeness' and 'environmentalism.' So the next stage is up and running.
Stage Four: Age of Intellectuals
This stage operates in tandem with the age of affluence. Startlingly developments in science, medicine and industry arrive. Computers and the internet speed up the process. In turn, a false axiom evolves that the human mind, given time and education, can resolve all problems.
Progress frees up time and energy to foster deep intellectual discussions. But unfortunately, this activity has the propensity to destroy the power of action, as endless debates around competing theories lead to stasis. No one can agree on who is right.
Then the postmodernists arrive to start kicking away the pillars of society by holding forth that there are no truths or facts. For them, everything is about power, oppression, and control, and science is subjective. Emotions and feelings trump facts in their world as the Enlightenment moves aside. They portray the law as nothing more than a weapon of power used by one group to suppress another.
This process of deconstruction rips through the academies, turning the young away from rationality. As a result, all kids earn certificates despite failing; the armed forces select pilots based on race and gender, not skill. Curtailed free speech hides these distortions.
The enemy is everyone who questions liberalism, individualism and the assigned narrative. Everyone is free to believe in liberalism and has a right to live as a liberal, but no one has the right to be anything else. In this context, liberalism is the belief that traditions and old values are no longer relevant or needed.
All this culminates in protesters who feel no shame for blocking access to a hospital because climate change is an issue. Also, the fact that a cancer patient cannot receive treatment or a visitor see a dying relative is secondary to their action.
Stage Five: the Age of Decadence and Decline
As the final stage arrives, society slips into vulgarity and listlessness. Scorned politicians devalue the fabric of the nation. Think Matt Hancock MP prostituting himself on a reality show for public ridicule, as the antics of Boris Johnson erode the virtues of service. Lies abound.
Meanwhile, the distracted masses gorge on the insane frivolities of celebrity culture. "Strictly' and assorted other trivial entertainments delight them. The heroes of this declining nation are always the singers, actors, comedians and athletes.
Governments flip back and forward, responding to the immediate with no long-term thinking or vision. As a result, a severe financial and economic crisis is pending due to a debasement of the currency. Food banks appear as post-industrial towns wallow in despair. The chaotic political situation paves the way for another nation to dominate the agenda.
Glubb held that the end came for Britain in the 1950s. Bankrupted by World War II, humiliated by the Suez crisis, and with the loss of the empire, a reset was underway. In the process, some claim the U.K. morphed into a client state of the U.S.
And the symptoms linger. The borders are open, the police supine and minority interests dominate many agendas. The U.K. military operates as an echelon of the U.S. war machine, unable to deploy or arm the fleet without American jets. Plus, the hallmark nuclear deterrent, that ultimate symbol of power, is an imported tool, unsustainable without Washington's acquiescence.
Exposed and with a struggling economy, the state is wobbling towards a shocking and painful reset. The only question is, when will it hit home in the national psyche?
Who Falls Next?
What does Glubb's model, even with its limitations, say about the state of the U.S.? Deeply polarised politics, printing money to sustain the economy, and forever wars draining the nation.
And yet, it would be unwise to dismiss America's ability to reinvent and regenerate, as each political cycle heralds a new dawn. And remember, the talk of decline was there in the 1970s as the Vietnam war and Nixon coloured the political scene. Moreover, the soft power America retains through its media and entertainment sectors, coupled with the hard power of the military, remains a formidable influence.
Besides, there are signs of stirring in the exhausted West. In response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, unity emerged as a once stagnating NATO found a purpose. Whether this is sustainable remains the key current question?
Ultimately, these models help understand civilisational collapse but are not so good at predicting it. Still, civilisations rise and fall, and that will continue to happen. What comes next? Who knows?
Still, the West looks to be in retreat, as the unipolar world fades.
To end on a note of optimism. In the grand scheme of things, civilisations coming and going is a healthy process. It creates competition, rekindles dormant places, and is beneficial in the long arc of progress. As Hans Rosling asserts in his ground-breaking book 'Factfulness' — things are getting better and are better than you think. Poverty is declining, child mortality is improving, population size will fall, wars are fewer and less harmful, and the world is safer.
As a simple observer of Homo sapiens, the most extraordinary of all the animals, I don't believe we have risen so far, achieved so much, to sink into a deadened, endless cycle of futility. We may stumble, but the stars still beckon.
Some people watching the 2021 attack on Capitol Hill rushed to conclude that the long-predicted U.S. fall had arrived. These attitudes hardened as the hurried ignominious departure of the U.S. from Afghanistan played out on the news as a ragtag Taliban army pushed out the planet's supreme military power.
Inevitably the question arises, has America squander 30 years of world dominance? After winning the Cold War, did the U.S. engage in pointless, misdirected foreign ventures that wasted energy and goodwill? And did this herald the end of U.S. domination over world affairs? Many would agree it looks like it.
The storming of the U.S. capitol building involved disgruntled ex-military types. Ashli Babbitt, 35, an Air Force veteran, was shot and killed by police as she clambered through a broken window. These events had the hallmarks of the last days of Rome; in the final years of the Roman empire, ex-soldiers laid claim to power, raided buildings and led much of the unrest.
Civilisations fall because of natural disasters, self-destruction, external threats or a combination of these elements. However, robust societies can resist and overcome natural and external threats; hence, internal factors are often the prime cause of the fall.
There is a wealth of material to dwell on when considering why civilisations come and go. Rome, the Incas, the Khmer empire and many others provide clues. According to academics, over 32 advanced civilisations have come and gone. The question is, who is next in line and can we predict a coming fall?
Often unfathomable reasons, both internal and external, bring about the collapse. Yet, when deriving lessons from history, it is possible to see some patterns emerge. Still, it is challenging to discern the likely timing of outcomes amid events until they arrive and overwhelm us.
Nonetheless, look, and you will see the signs. A decade before the collapse of Rome, one in three citizens received 'welfare' payments in the form of free corn. Emperor after emperor, printing money to maintain lavish spending created inflation and poverty. Sound familiar?
Inflation is not the rise in prices; these are the symptoms of inflation. In Rome, a diluted coinage using less valuable metals is the modern equal of printing money. To understand this mechanism, watch this video and then consider what the U.S. is doing today to shore up the dollar.
Did the Roman thinkers recognise these events as an indicator that decay from within was well underway? Or, in the confusion of events, and a slow march to the cliff, did they become confused and distracted?
Sure, the Romans saw the threats on their borders with encroaching barbarians. But, despite a gut feeling that something was wrong, this didn't allow complete comprehension that internal policies also undermined the system. Indeed, these helped create the conditions that allowed external threats to develop.
So, back to the question. Is it possible to predict that a country or society will collapse? Here I examine the path to ruin, which I stress is not always the end of a particular state or country. In some instances, a reset occurs that sees a diminished entity emerge.
I ask you to consider a well-underway shift from an Atlantic-dominated world, with the U.S. at the top, to an Asia-dominated scene. Whether China or India takes the lead position is a moot point. Both have challenges that may derail their projected rise if, indeed, that is what they seek. Besides, a multi-polar world could appear with no dominant empire. But, for sure, an emerging new order will evolve.
For clarity, I do not seek to be a prophet of doom claiming apocalyptic outcomes. Instead, I foresee a gradual stagnation and decline to Western societal torpor. For starters, Europe is post-Christian, having to a degree lost its way, as the U.S. goes down the same path and, in some aspects, is ahead of Europe. The core value consensus that once underpinned Western liberal societies is no longer there. Replacing it is a mush of issues inserted in the culture, mingling in a broth of conceit.
Notably, the self-absorbed Western societies haven't awoken to the fact that Asia and elsewhere are moving ahead in many domains. Take a moment to consider examples in airports and other critical infrastructure; Heathrow or Changi, Charles de Gaulle or Chek Lap Kok.
On the cultural front, observe how political correctness and woke ideology have entered mainstream Western life through processes and laws. As a result, at times, the minority is favoured over the majority. In stark contrast, Asian nations adopt a rational approach that serves the needs of the majority while placing minority issues in context.
Indeed, all cultures create stories that help them deal with a complex random world. These stories anchor beliefs, providing unity around a shared purpose, although many elements contain myths.
The U.S. claims to be the greatest nation, the acclaimed 'city on the hill, the beacon of democracy'. It turns out that even a cursory review of the metrics soon exposes the truth. Antiquated roads, bridges and airports do not match the fable. On health care, the U.S. scores low across a range of measurements, including child mortality, premature deaths and the cost of medical care. Remarkably, life expectancy in parts of West Virginia is lower than in Pakistan and much of Africa.
Besides, the U.S. has one of the highest wealth gaps, with a 2021 Gini coefficient of 0.48 - the highest in 50 years. Then there is a political system dominated by a few, who exercise power through funding and lobbying. So, as Professor Ray La Raja of the University of Massachusetts observed, "The U.S. system is democratic only in form, not in substance."
It is well known that sub-replacement fertility rates, coupled with a sex ratio imbalance, present risks for a civilisation. But, again, Rome suffered such imbalances before it fell. Thus, it can't go unremarked that China has created such a scenario with the 'one-child policy'. Atop that, a volatile housing market and the wide gap between prosperous cities and rural areas remains an issue. Whether China can resolve these issues with such initiatives as 'common prosperity' remains to be seen.
For India, the risks are class divisions, the wealth gap and religious tensions. Fuel costs, a credit crunch around bad debts and currency fluctuations also cloud the horizon. Hence, whether China or India takes the top position remains questionable.
Another point is that while the political and economic might of India and China, and the demographic weight of Africa, are all undeniable and poised to reshape the world, there is not yet any non-Western cultural influence to match the U.S. output. Instead, Hollywood, Coca-Cola and others provide a heft that gives the U.S. a deceptive sparkle.
None of the emerging powers can match that. And the U.S. understands such 'soft power' as it scrambles to shut down China's Confucius Institutes.
Well, who can help us untangle these issues? The often-cited Oswald Spengler, a German philosopher (1880-1936), predicted that Western civilisation would enter a pre-death period around 2000. He envisaged the rise of Caesars — all-powerful executives who governed with omnipotence within a passive democratic framework. He foresaw that the system would fail after another 200 years.
I mention Spengler because he provides a valuable reference and proves a point; many models and ideas around civilisational collapse are not well anchored and proved wrong. Although, in fairness, each study helps us comprehend the complexities.
Going forward, in 1990, Joseph Tainter opined that human societies are complex entities that need finely attuned, well-maintained sociopolitical systems. Further, as societies grow more complex, extra costs arise that reach a point of marginal returns. In short, society runs out of ideas, is exhausted and folds.
The mathematician Peter Turchin and historian Jack Goldstone took this project to the next level by using numbers to predict cycles within societies. Using mathematical studies and applying system thinking, they've correlated factors such as income inequality with periods of instability.
They correctly predicted a turbulent period for the U.S. around 2020 and cautioned other Western nations are in trouble. But, while this modelling paints a broad picture of events, it cannot foretell when a collapse or fall will occur.
Of course, it's a fool's errand to ascribe specific events as pivot points in such a complex, evolving process. Nonetheless, we must anchor on some perimeters to avoid wandering into the weeds of esoteric debates.
This brings us to Sir John Glubb's civilisational growth and collapse model. Glubb, born in 1897, served in the British army during World War I and later took an administrative post in the Iraq Government. From 1939 to 1956, he commanded the Jordan Arab legion, the forerunner to the current Jordanian army. Glubb published seventeen books.
Glubb's civilisation theory appeared in a 1976 essay. He studied eleven empires, starting with the Assyrians in 859 B.C. and ending with the British in the 1950s. Sir John determined that each followed a similar pattern from birth to demise. Spanning an average of ten generations or 250 years, they went through five stages.
Glubb's theory has several issues that need addressing. For instance, defining when a civilisation starts and finishes is far from precise. Likewise, the evolving stages overlap to a degree, although he is on more solid ground when asserting that the five steps have identifiable features. Again, the model may appear superficial, given the vast complexities of the subject. These limitations are acknowledged.
Stage One: The Age of Pioneers and Conquest
This era is when a civilisation lays its foundations. Adventurers began conquering land and sea, exploring and opening trade routes. Wars are fought, alliances made and broken, as power transfers. For Britain, in Glubb's model, the starting point is the 1700s, as the empire emerged as a distinct entity that reached its height with Queen Victoria.
What is most relevant is the characteristic of the age of pioneers. Displays of energy, courage and aggressiveness abound in a landscape populated by the likes of Clive of India, Lord Nelson and Isaac Newton. As pioneering new techniques appear, applied with confidence, the new empire overpowers others, including declining states.
Stage Two: Age of Commerce
As trade grows, wealth accumulates, and large cities emerge, it is then necessary to introduce administrative measures to control commerce, with a legal system taking shape. What is more, military power acts to support traders. Examples include the British Navy attacking Chinese forts and sinking ships to secure the opium trade.
In India, a private company operated an army to keep the locals in order and business running.
In turn, the wealth generated feeds the arts and cultural scene. Grand buildings appear that celebrate power and prowess as the British Museum fills with the plunder of conquered places. The high noon of prosperity has arrived.
Stage Three: Age of Affluence
By now, the benefits of the empire are trickling down, with most British people seeing a steady improvement in health, wealth and prospects. But, at the same time, the grip of religion is weakening as money takes over as a societal driver.
This period is the time when welfare arises as a preoccupation. All political parties embrace the general principle that no one is left behind as a welfare state develops. This project reaches its peak with free medical care and unemployment benefits.
Simultaneously, a postmodern culture is taking hold. And this is the very thing that Nietzsche predicted would weaken societies; there is no meaning to life, God is dead, and people flock to the new religions of 'wokeness' and 'environmentalism.' So the next stage is up and running.
Stage Four: Age of Intellectuals
This stage operates in tandem with the age of affluence. Startlingly developments in science, medicine and industry arrive. Computers and the internet speed up the process. In turn, a false axiom evolves that the human mind, given time and education, can resolve all problems.
Progress frees up time and energy to foster deep intellectual discussions. But unfortunately, this activity has the propensity to destroy the power of action, as endless debates around competing theories lead to stasis. No one can agree on who is right.
Then the postmodernists arrive to start kicking away the pillars of society by holding forth that there are no truths or facts. For them, everything is about power, oppression, and control, and science is subjective. Emotions and feelings trump facts in their world as the Enlightenment moves aside. They portray the law as nothing more than a weapon of power used by one group to suppress another.
This process of deconstruction rips through the academies, turning the young away from rationality. As a result, all kids earn certificates despite failing; the armed forces select pilots based on race and gender, not skill. Curtailed free speech hides these distortions.
The enemy is everyone who questions liberalism, individualism and the assigned narrative. Everyone is free to believe in liberalism and has a right to live as a liberal, but no one has the right to be anything else. In this context, liberalism is the belief that traditions and old values are no longer relevant or needed.
All this culminates in protesters who feel no shame for blocking access to a hospital because climate change is an issue. Also, the fact that a cancer patient cannot receive treatment or a visitor see a dying relative is secondary to their action.
Stage Five: the Age of Decadence and Decline
As the final stage arrives, society slips into vulgarity and listlessness. Scorned politicians devalue the fabric of the nation. Think Matt Hancock MP prostituting himself on a reality show for public ridicule, as the antics of Boris Johnson erode the virtues of service. Lies abound.
Meanwhile, the distracted masses gorge on the insane frivolities of celebrity culture. "Strictly' and assorted other trivial entertainments delight them. The heroes of this declining nation are always the singers, actors, comedians and athletes.
Governments flip back and forward, responding to the immediate with no long-term thinking or vision. As a result, a severe financial and economic crisis is pending due to a debasement of the currency. Food banks appear as post-industrial towns wallow in despair. The chaotic political situation paves the way for another nation to dominate the agenda.
Glubb held that the end came for Britain in the 1950s. Bankrupted by World War II, humiliated by the Suez crisis, and with the loss of the empire, a reset was underway. In the process, some claim the U.K. morphed into a client state of the U.S.
And the symptoms linger. The borders are open, the police supine and minority interests dominate many agendas. The U.K. military operates as an echelon of the U.S. war machine, unable to deploy or arm the fleet without American jets. Plus, the hallmark nuclear deterrent, that ultimate symbol of power, is an imported tool, unsustainable without Washington's acquiescence.
Exposed and with a struggling economy, the state is wobbling towards a shocking and painful reset. The only question is, when will it hit home in the national psyche?
Who Falls Next?
What does Glubb's model, even with its limitations, say about the state of the U.S.? Deeply polarised politics, printing money to sustain the economy, and forever wars draining the nation.
And yet, it would be unwise to dismiss America's ability to reinvent and regenerate, as each political cycle heralds a new dawn. And remember, the talk of decline was there in the 1970s as the Vietnam war and Nixon coloured the political scene. Moreover, the soft power America retains through its media and entertainment sectors, coupled with the hard power of the military, remains a formidable influence.
Besides, there are signs of stirring in the exhausted West. In response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, unity emerged as a once stagnating NATO found a purpose. Whether this is sustainable remains the key current question?
Ultimately, these models help understand civilisational collapse but are not so good at predicting it. Still, civilisations rise and fall, and that will continue to happen. What comes next? Who knows?
Still, the West looks to be in retreat, as the unipolar world fades.
To end on a note of optimism. In the grand scheme of things, civilisations coming and going is a healthy process. It creates competition, rekindles dormant places, and is beneficial in the long arc of progress. As Hans Rosling asserts in his ground-breaking book 'Factfulness' — things are getting better and are better than you think. Poverty is declining, child mortality is improving, population size will fall, wars are fewer and less harmful, and the world is safer.
As a simple observer of Homo sapiens, the most extraordinary of all the animals, I don't believe we have risen so far, achieved so much, to sink into a deadened, endless cycle of futility. We may stumble, but the stars still beckon.
November 2022