War in Ukraine - the narrative and other stuff.
"Nietzsche cautioned us that 'the ability of an idea to comfort us is no criterion for the truth'."
"The truth, you can't handle the truth," roared Colonel Jessup in the movie 'A Few Good Men'. Well, yes, except the question remains what the truth is? A question again brought into sharp focus by Putin's stalled war in Ukraine, with the adage that 'truth is the first victim of war' never more apposite.
As Putin's forces grind to a halt in the face of dogged Ukrainian resistance, the conflict plays out in multiple domains. Although discerning the veracity of events remains challenging. Ironically, all our modern information systems aren't helping and maybe adding to the confusion.
One example is the so-called 'Ghost of Kyiv', the ace Ukraine pilot who shot down seven (or was it ten?) Russian planes in days. The news media is full of tales of this pilot's daring and staunch defence of Kyiv.
Pictures and video clips allegedly show the pilot in action — this is where the story starts to fall apart. In one instance, the background plane is a US F-16; in another, the pilot is wearing French headgear. Also, much of the footage comes from video games or features the wrong aircraft. Finally, of course, the pilot's face is never shown.
Likewise, the 'Russian warship, Go Fuck yourself' tale of defiance in the face of death is now known to be false. To their credit, a few news agencies have debunked these stories.
The philosopher Nietzsche cautioned us that 'the ability of an idea to comfort us is no criterion for the truth'. Still, indisputably people found solace in these stories without scratching the surface. Also, no doubt, there are tales of genuine courage in the Ukraine resistance, but it is inescapable that fake accounts sully the waters creating doubts in the mind of observers.
Yet, it is well worth remembering that this phenomenon is nothing new. Down the ages, upheavals and wars cause opposite sides to contest the truth and shape the narrative to uphold their picture of events. For example, the Tudors set out to destroy the reputation of Richard III, helped along by their propagandist William Shakespeare. His play fed public sentiment to affirm that the Tudors had a legitimate claim to the throne.
In World War II, Churchill boosted morale with his speech of 'The Few', a tale amplified in movies and books. These days historians agree the RAF was always going to win the Battle of Britain. The gallant Douglas Bader, Ginger Lacy and the rest were the first line of defence, not the last. Moreover, they operated with superb coordination and had plenty of reserves. So in 1940, Britain's position was never as precarious as often portrayed, with the Empire behind it and the most powerful navy.
Which points to the truth as a dynamic concept. Before Copernicus, everyone held the reality that the world sat at the centre of the universe with everything revolving around us. Only the delusional believe that now. You can never be sure what the truth may surprise you with next.
Meanwhile, these days information flows at an unprecedented rate. Everyone can access anything; everyone is a potential journalist and commentator; everyone can shape the narrative; everyone is confused. Further, it is unfortunate that the mainstream media, despite their lofty claims to integrity in reporting, don't help us.
The Media Filters
How we arrive at the truth of events, especially wars some distance away, is dictated by our access to information, the opinions we hear and the explanations given by the pundits. But that is not a straightforward matter. In their 1988 book 'Manufacturing Consent', Noam Chomsky and Edward Herman tell us that 'news' goes through at least five filters before it reaches us, and we must treat it with wariness.
The filters of media ownership, advertisers, news sources, adverse reactions, and public fear all shape or distort the final product. How the process moulds the news product is discussed here.
In 'The Fake News Factory', David Sedgwick documents a litany of false, distorted and misleading stories pumped out by the BBC over the last decades. He paints a picture of an organisation working to an agenda that is out of kilter with the society it serves.
Further, with the West blocking Russian news outlets and Russia reciprocating, both sides operate in information silos. On a related note, so-called Western values of free speech slip somewhat when you shut off opposing voices instead of allowing the public to make their judgements.
All five filters also apply to social media. Facebook has demonstrated the process by allowing us to call for 'death to Putin' — a posting that would be deemed hate speech and earn a ban in normal times. Likewise, the fascist groups in Ukraine that the liberal Western media warned against decades ago are now 'freedom-fighters' running around with anti-tank missiles. As an aside, whether anyone has thought through the long-term consequences of arming and training these Nazis is unclear.
Consider that Venezuela, a country long in the sights of the Americans for various reasons, is now cited as a friend because the West needs oil. So, once again, those lofty Western values of democracy and human rights fall away when circumstances intervene.
In his struggle with the 'Freedom Truckers', Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau adopted tactics that converged on the authoritarian as he froze bank accounts. When Hong Kong did similar things to groups supporting terrorists, the West screamed foul play.
Caveat Lector - Social Media
But indeed, you ask, isn't the Internet providing an opportunity to breach these filters to offer alternative insights? In response, I'd say 'to a degree'. Remember, the Internet is a nest of interpretations unworthy of the name, even as it is informative and emancipating. Unfortunately, that is the ambiguity we have to live with.
Plus, in much of the general population, there is a tendency to focus on the immediate, the most visible, overlooking the broader structure of events.
Plato was the first to suggest an inherent separation between the Thinking Brain and the Feeling Brain. And once the 'Feeling' or emotional brain is activated, rationality can take a back seat. That is scary when fed a steady diet of refugees, explosions and destructions. Nobody is bothered about how we got here; instead, we are looking to punish somebody, demanding immediate action.
Conversely, the staying power of public opinion is days and weeks rather than months and years, and you can see the problem. People soon move on. They have already forgotten that the West was chased out of Afghanistan by a ragtag Taliban army only months ago. That mess still boils away now out of sight and mind. How many in the West know that their forces are bombing the Yemenis into starvation?
Everything is weaponised - The Greyzone War.
And if you think filtered news is bad enough, consider the following. Once upon a time, we had a generally binary narrative of war and peace. While the distinction was never absolute, people tended to see the world in that way — we are at war, or we are not at war.
That is no longer the case. Instead, we are on a spectrum that stretches from warnings to opponents, through sanctions, law-fare, threats, the use of proxy warriors, and finally, total kinetic warfare. Nations can use any of these options or a mix.
Experts talk of 'Grayzone' warfare with any tools at your disposal deployed against an opponent. Embargoes on trade, financial instruments, denying access to technology, hacking, and proxy forces are all constituent parts of the process. For example, the UK has used shipping insurance to prevent vessels from carrying embargoed items on the high seas. Such methods mean you don't need to send in Marines to seize the ship.
Some argue that China adopted law-fare arresting two Canadians citizens as the Meng Wanzhou saga unfolded. China denied a link. However, the day that Meng returned to China, the two Canadians came the other way. While Australian winemakers suffered an import ban as relations with China deteriorated over Covid.
At the same time, books, movies and even Tik-Tok clips serve as propaganda vectors. I've lost count of the number of Russian tanks I've seen hit by missiles and destroyed in Ukraine. Nonetheless, the Russians are on the outskirts of Kyiv, pressing home their attack.
In the 'Greyzone' interpretation of the global struggle, the US and China are already at war. The battlefront is trade, finance and the US dollar reserve currency.
No wonder China and others are working to establish a system that removes the central role of the US dollar. Once an alternative is in place, they've defanged the US dollar, weakening the options the Americans can apply.
Having shown that Russia can be effectively thrown out of the world's financial system for not cooperating with the West, other countries will take note. Moreover, companies such as MacDonalds proved themselves willing to punish a country by withdrawing. These companies, including social media outfits, having acted politically, opened the door to be treated as political entities.
There is, in short, no reason to treat them as passive commercial actors and allow them market access. Could the longer-term impact be the division of the world into economic blocs?
Power Shift - Does anyone win?
Will the West suffer strategic consequences due to Russia's action in Ukraine? Absolutely. Are there any winners in this game? Maybe China stands to gain the most, although nobody comes out of this untouched.
Afghanistan showed us that the Americans, aided by NATO allies, couldn't shoe-horn democracy into a country. So they fled, leaving behind a people to face their fate. Other nations noted that sudden retreat.
While offering considerable support in equipment and expertise in the current crisis, NATO has shown an unwillingness to engage directly. With the possibility of a wider war, Putin has calculated the West doesn't have the stomach for a fight. He's likely correct.
Meanwhile, in the background, China's rapid rise to economic preeminence coincides with a proportional decline of the US at the core of the capitalist world system. Because the lesson that China took from the collapse of the Soviet Union was to restrain military expenditure to instead focus on economic growth, that approach has paid dividends.
As already mentioned, having weaponised the dollar to punish nations that don't align with its agenda, the US will see a drive to establish an alternative reserve currency or basket of currencies. Likewise, China will look at measures applied by the West on Russia to conclude they won't allow themselves to fall into the same trap. As a result, the self-sufficient drive will intensify in power generation and use of resources.
The current Chinese stance on Putin and Ukraine is nuanced. They've declined to supply plane parts to the Russians, and China's state banks refused a financial deal that would unlock up to $84bn. Meanwhile, Chinese aid workers are in-country.
Long-term, China could opt to speed up the use of 'Grayzone' options to leverage its interests. After all, it has control of many rare earth materials essential for producing electric car batteries, satellites, wind turbines and solar panels.
And while adopting a nominal neutral stance, China must be aghast at Putin's actions. They seek stability over all else. For this reason, Putin throwing his weight around in Europe, while a helpful distraction that keeps the Americans occupied, doesn't sit well. Above all else, China seeks to trade with other nations, not dominate by military force. This war disrupts trade.
Putin - The Future Looks Precarious
Despite his slow military progress, Putin is closing his grip on Ukraine. Whether some deal is forced on Kyiv, the invasion has crystallised a sense that Putin's Russia has become a rogue state. He's put down his red lines in tangible action so that Ukraine won't be joining NATO soon.
Putin has seen the virtue-signalling applause from European parliaments with remarkable clarity as Zelensky addresses them with pleas for help. But, of course, he knows full well that Zelensky is asking for World War III, which even the bewildered mind of Joe Biden can see this is not an option.
And yet, in the end, Putin will pay a political price at home for his actions.
Finally - What Next?
Here are a couple of things to consider:
If the rationalists prevail, in the big picture both America and China will focus on their common interests of improving their citizen's livelihoods while keeping peace to avoid a spiral into hot conflict. That's the best we can hope for.
As Putin's forces grind to a halt in the face of dogged Ukrainian resistance, the conflict plays out in multiple domains. Although discerning the veracity of events remains challenging. Ironically, all our modern information systems aren't helping and maybe adding to the confusion.
One example is the so-called 'Ghost of Kyiv', the ace Ukraine pilot who shot down seven (or was it ten?) Russian planes in days. The news media is full of tales of this pilot's daring and staunch defence of Kyiv.
Pictures and video clips allegedly show the pilot in action — this is where the story starts to fall apart. In one instance, the background plane is a US F-16; in another, the pilot is wearing French headgear. Also, much of the footage comes from video games or features the wrong aircraft. Finally, of course, the pilot's face is never shown.
Likewise, the 'Russian warship, Go Fuck yourself' tale of defiance in the face of death is now known to be false. To their credit, a few news agencies have debunked these stories.
The philosopher Nietzsche cautioned us that 'the ability of an idea to comfort us is no criterion for the truth'. Still, indisputably people found solace in these stories without scratching the surface. Also, no doubt, there are tales of genuine courage in the Ukraine resistance, but it is inescapable that fake accounts sully the waters creating doubts in the mind of observers.
Yet, it is well worth remembering that this phenomenon is nothing new. Down the ages, upheavals and wars cause opposite sides to contest the truth and shape the narrative to uphold their picture of events. For example, the Tudors set out to destroy the reputation of Richard III, helped along by their propagandist William Shakespeare. His play fed public sentiment to affirm that the Tudors had a legitimate claim to the throne.
In World War II, Churchill boosted morale with his speech of 'The Few', a tale amplified in movies and books. These days historians agree the RAF was always going to win the Battle of Britain. The gallant Douglas Bader, Ginger Lacy and the rest were the first line of defence, not the last. Moreover, they operated with superb coordination and had plenty of reserves. So in 1940, Britain's position was never as precarious as often portrayed, with the Empire behind it and the most powerful navy.
Which points to the truth as a dynamic concept. Before Copernicus, everyone held the reality that the world sat at the centre of the universe with everything revolving around us. Only the delusional believe that now. You can never be sure what the truth may surprise you with next.
Meanwhile, these days information flows at an unprecedented rate. Everyone can access anything; everyone is a potential journalist and commentator; everyone can shape the narrative; everyone is confused. Further, it is unfortunate that the mainstream media, despite their lofty claims to integrity in reporting, don't help us.
The Media Filters
How we arrive at the truth of events, especially wars some distance away, is dictated by our access to information, the opinions we hear and the explanations given by the pundits. But that is not a straightforward matter. In their 1988 book 'Manufacturing Consent', Noam Chomsky and Edward Herman tell us that 'news' goes through at least five filters before it reaches us, and we must treat it with wariness.
The filters of media ownership, advertisers, news sources, adverse reactions, and public fear all shape or distort the final product. How the process moulds the news product is discussed here.
In 'The Fake News Factory', David Sedgwick documents a litany of false, distorted and misleading stories pumped out by the BBC over the last decades. He paints a picture of an organisation working to an agenda that is out of kilter with the society it serves.
Further, with the West blocking Russian news outlets and Russia reciprocating, both sides operate in information silos. On a related note, so-called Western values of free speech slip somewhat when you shut off opposing voices instead of allowing the public to make their judgements.
All five filters also apply to social media. Facebook has demonstrated the process by allowing us to call for 'death to Putin' — a posting that would be deemed hate speech and earn a ban in normal times. Likewise, the fascist groups in Ukraine that the liberal Western media warned against decades ago are now 'freedom-fighters' running around with anti-tank missiles. As an aside, whether anyone has thought through the long-term consequences of arming and training these Nazis is unclear.
Consider that Venezuela, a country long in the sights of the Americans for various reasons, is now cited as a friend because the West needs oil. So, once again, those lofty Western values of democracy and human rights fall away when circumstances intervene.
In his struggle with the 'Freedom Truckers', Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau adopted tactics that converged on the authoritarian as he froze bank accounts. When Hong Kong did similar things to groups supporting terrorists, the West screamed foul play.
Caveat Lector - Social Media
But indeed, you ask, isn't the Internet providing an opportunity to breach these filters to offer alternative insights? In response, I'd say 'to a degree'. Remember, the Internet is a nest of interpretations unworthy of the name, even as it is informative and emancipating. Unfortunately, that is the ambiguity we have to live with.
Plus, in much of the general population, there is a tendency to focus on the immediate, the most visible, overlooking the broader structure of events.
Plato was the first to suggest an inherent separation between the Thinking Brain and the Feeling Brain. And once the 'Feeling' or emotional brain is activated, rationality can take a back seat. That is scary when fed a steady diet of refugees, explosions and destructions. Nobody is bothered about how we got here; instead, we are looking to punish somebody, demanding immediate action.
Conversely, the staying power of public opinion is days and weeks rather than months and years, and you can see the problem. People soon move on. They have already forgotten that the West was chased out of Afghanistan by a ragtag Taliban army only months ago. That mess still boils away now out of sight and mind. How many in the West know that their forces are bombing the Yemenis into starvation?
Everything is weaponised - The Greyzone War.
And if you think filtered news is bad enough, consider the following. Once upon a time, we had a generally binary narrative of war and peace. While the distinction was never absolute, people tended to see the world in that way — we are at war, or we are not at war.
That is no longer the case. Instead, we are on a spectrum that stretches from warnings to opponents, through sanctions, law-fare, threats, the use of proxy warriors, and finally, total kinetic warfare. Nations can use any of these options or a mix.
Experts talk of 'Grayzone' warfare with any tools at your disposal deployed against an opponent. Embargoes on trade, financial instruments, denying access to technology, hacking, and proxy forces are all constituent parts of the process. For example, the UK has used shipping insurance to prevent vessels from carrying embargoed items on the high seas. Such methods mean you don't need to send in Marines to seize the ship.
Some argue that China adopted law-fare arresting two Canadians citizens as the Meng Wanzhou saga unfolded. China denied a link. However, the day that Meng returned to China, the two Canadians came the other way. While Australian winemakers suffered an import ban as relations with China deteriorated over Covid.
At the same time, books, movies and even Tik-Tok clips serve as propaganda vectors. I've lost count of the number of Russian tanks I've seen hit by missiles and destroyed in Ukraine. Nonetheless, the Russians are on the outskirts of Kyiv, pressing home their attack.
In the 'Greyzone' interpretation of the global struggle, the US and China are already at war. The battlefront is trade, finance and the US dollar reserve currency.
No wonder China and others are working to establish a system that removes the central role of the US dollar. Once an alternative is in place, they've defanged the US dollar, weakening the options the Americans can apply.
Having shown that Russia can be effectively thrown out of the world's financial system for not cooperating with the West, other countries will take note. Moreover, companies such as MacDonalds proved themselves willing to punish a country by withdrawing. These companies, including social media outfits, having acted politically, opened the door to be treated as political entities.
There is, in short, no reason to treat them as passive commercial actors and allow them market access. Could the longer-term impact be the division of the world into economic blocs?
Power Shift - Does anyone win?
Will the West suffer strategic consequences due to Russia's action in Ukraine? Absolutely. Are there any winners in this game? Maybe China stands to gain the most, although nobody comes out of this untouched.
Afghanistan showed us that the Americans, aided by NATO allies, couldn't shoe-horn democracy into a country. So they fled, leaving behind a people to face their fate. Other nations noted that sudden retreat.
While offering considerable support in equipment and expertise in the current crisis, NATO has shown an unwillingness to engage directly. With the possibility of a wider war, Putin has calculated the West doesn't have the stomach for a fight. He's likely correct.
Meanwhile, in the background, China's rapid rise to economic preeminence coincides with a proportional decline of the US at the core of the capitalist world system. Because the lesson that China took from the collapse of the Soviet Union was to restrain military expenditure to instead focus on economic growth, that approach has paid dividends.
As already mentioned, having weaponised the dollar to punish nations that don't align with its agenda, the US will see a drive to establish an alternative reserve currency or basket of currencies. Likewise, China will look at measures applied by the West on Russia to conclude they won't allow themselves to fall into the same trap. As a result, the self-sufficient drive will intensify in power generation and use of resources.
The current Chinese stance on Putin and Ukraine is nuanced. They've declined to supply plane parts to the Russians, and China's state banks refused a financial deal that would unlock up to $84bn. Meanwhile, Chinese aid workers are in-country.
Long-term, China could opt to speed up the use of 'Grayzone' options to leverage its interests. After all, it has control of many rare earth materials essential for producing electric car batteries, satellites, wind turbines and solar panels.
And while adopting a nominal neutral stance, China must be aghast at Putin's actions. They seek stability over all else. For this reason, Putin throwing his weight around in Europe, while a helpful distraction that keeps the Americans occupied, doesn't sit well. Above all else, China seeks to trade with other nations, not dominate by military force. This war disrupts trade.
Putin - The Future Looks Precarious
Despite his slow military progress, Putin is closing his grip on Ukraine. Whether some deal is forced on Kyiv, the invasion has crystallised a sense that Putin's Russia has become a rogue state. He's put down his red lines in tangible action so that Ukraine won't be joining NATO soon.
Putin has seen the virtue-signalling applause from European parliaments with remarkable clarity as Zelensky addresses them with pleas for help. But, of course, he knows full well that Zelensky is asking for World War III, which even the bewildered mind of Joe Biden can see this is not an option.
And yet, in the end, Putin will pay a political price at home for his actions.
Finally - What Next?
Here are a couple of things to consider:
- Putin will get to keep the areas he has invaded;
- Putin will struggle to hold power at home;
- Some form of low-level conflict will rumble on;
- NATO will rearm;
- The US will be forced to pivot towards Europe;
- The West will drop carbon net-zero to focus on energy as a national security issue;
- Nuclear power will be back, while Ms Thunberg and her crew will fume in the corner;
- China and others will seek to break the dominance of the US dollar as a reserve currency. That will take some time, but many countries will see a strategic interest in such a move; and
- Africa and the global south will lean towards China as its influence grows.
If the rationalists prevail, in the big picture both America and China will focus on their common interests of improving their citizen's livelihoods while keeping peace to avoid a spiral into hot conflict. That's the best we can hope for.
March 2022
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