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Walter's Blog

"But how can you live and have no story to tell?" Fyodor Dostoevsky

Reflections on recent events, plus the occasional fact free rant unfiltered by rational argument.

"If you want to read a blog to get a sense of what is going on in Hong Kong these days or a blog that would tell you what life was like living in colonial Hong Kong, this blog, WALTER'S BLOG, fits the bill." Hong Kong Blog Review

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19/6/2017 0 Comments

20 Years On. Crime is evolving.

Hong Kong’s crime trend mirrors what’s going on elsewhere in the world. In broad terms crime is moving online. Frauds, deceptions and outright theft of material are all features of the new crime era. Street crime such as robberies, snatching and assorted hooliganism are down. The gun crime that was a feature of the 1990s is now rare. These crimes disappeared as the mainland imposed tighter controls on their side of the fence.

I’ve written in some detail about crime in this blog. This piece aims to review the changes in the past twenty years since the handover. For visitors, tourists and residents alike, Hong Kong is one of the safest places in the world. In short, there is little to worry about. A polite, efficient and well-resourced police force is omnipresent in the city. This visibility and the need to carry identity cards means crime can be ‘nipped in the bud’.

Official police crime statistics tell a story. Total recorded crime in 2001 was 73,008 cases. In 2016, the figure was 60,646. That’s against the background of adding two million people to the population. Robberies in 2001, stood at 3,167 cases. By 2016 robberies dropped to 260 cases. Deceptions are the growth industry. In 2001, the public reported 4,051 deception cases to police. By 2015, the number was 9,355, although it dropped 7,260 in 2016. Of course, official crime statistics should be treated with caution. Past crime victimisation surveys have found that some crimes are under-reported. Thefts and other minor cases often don’t make it to the statistics. Similar things are seen in all jurisdictions. The public doesn’t want to waste time on a report and statement taking.

Online deceptions and con tricks have exploded with the adoption of the internet. The internet has given the criminal access to every home. Criminal gangs are leveraging social-engineering techniques to ensnail people. The methods have evolved over time. The street deception emerged in the late 1990s. Old folks were the target. The hoaxers claimed bad luck was about to befall them. Actors pretending to be monks and shamans assisted the sting. Pensioners handed over money in worship ceremony purported to protect them. Education and vigilant bank staff helped curtail that trend.

Next emerged the fake calls from public security officials. These deception came in several varieties. Either you or a relative had committed a crime on the mainland. Paying Money could resolve matters. The calls came in from overseas, which hampered enforcement efforts. Again, education was the key.

Over time, the con artists became more sophisticated. Ladies, some well-educated and very wealthy, were groomed online. Made to believe the other party loved them and that marriage is on the cards. The scammers took in millions of dollars. Meanwhile, men engaging in sex acts with online lady friends found themselves threatened. Pay up or get exposed.

In 2015, scammers garnered an estimated $78-HK million. Masterminded in Taiwan, the syndicates operated from Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand and Cambodia. In 2016 there were 1,423 reports of such scams. Police said 561 of those cases were successful, with a total haul of HK$300 million.

Police enforcement had some success working with overseas agencies. Syndicates were hit and shut down. Yet, the scams are so lucrative that new syndicates sprang up to replace the old. All the evidence points towards education being the best defence. Citizens need vigilance.

Drug trafficking has benefitted from social media and instant messaging. Addicts don’t need to wander down to the trafficking spots to buy their drugs. Just make a call. A courier will bring them around. Interdiction by the police is harder because the trafficker is no longer static.

Emerging social concerns are also bringing pressure to the police. Animal cruelty cases provoke an emotive reaction. A few politicians have exploited these to drum up anti-police sentiment. Claims of a lack of sympathy or inaction are easy to make. Likewise, allegations of insensitivity towards sex workers and rape victims are trotted out. Most of these assertions do not stand up to critical examination, but the damage is done. Meanwhile, domestic violence cases continue to draw on police resources. Strict protocols mandate police action and the inter-agency follow-up. These procedures seek to keep families safe.

Public order duties have in recent years undermined police efforts against crime. Manpower taken away from routine front-line duties erodes many initiatives. The tempo of anti-crime operations needed to slow as officers focused on other duties. Criminals benefited from this distraction.

At a local level, the police are coming under more scrutiny to resolve illegal parking. The government's failure to control vehicle numbers or provide off-street parking puts the police on the spot. Communities are rightly demanding that roads are clear for traffic flow and emergency vehicle access. Even relentless enforcement action does little to dent the problem. Parking fines are so low, the drivers accept the costs as a business expense. Thus, ineffective policies are aggravating tensions between the public and police.

Since 1997, the Hong Kong Police has benefited from societal changes. Diminishing on-street crime can be attributed to many factors. Gentrification and the appearance of a middle class are contributing. Moreover, people are indoors playing video games rather than on the streets at night. Effective police action that targets known individuals and black-spots is proving effective.

The prevalence of online crime will no doubt continue to be a significant challenge. Street management issues are also coming to the fore. Illegal parking and obstructions irk the public. Poor planning coupled with weak policies will feed that testing situation.

Finally, its worth commenting on public satisfaction with the police. The Hong Kong University tracking survey had satisfaction at 63% in 2012. By 2016, a modest increase to 64% occurred. As regards perception of safety during daytime, a 2015 survey returned a high satisfaction rate of 90 per cent. At night, the figure was 75%. Both figures support the view that the public feels safe.

And what of the future? Immediate policing challenges will focus on public order duties and the management of protest. That thankless task will remain as tricky as ever.

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13/6/2017 0 Comments

20 Years On. Crisis - What Crisis?

Hong Kong has amazing resilience. It bounces back from traumatic events, even while some are declaring its ruination. This ability to pick itself up, shake off the events and then move on, demonstrated time and time again. Authors of doom-laden books make a decent living out of getting their predictions wrong. Meanwhile, Hong Kong gets on with life. Let’s examine a couple of these instances.

The Handover - 1997

There was money to be made in the run-up to the handover. A steady stream of TV documentaries and books appeared. These came in two broad types. The first celebrated the history, usually with a heavy emphasis on the colonial pomp. The second type of offering gave us demise and ruination. The fall of Hong Kong. Most of this stuff was self-indulgent rubbish by people who’d not lived here. Never mind having an understanding of the place. A narrative of gloom played to a certain audience. It helped people justify their decisions to go, whilst doing Hong Kong a grave disservice.

British journalists fed their readers egos by suggesting the place would collapse without the steady hand of Albion. These veiled racist pieces gave no account of the hardworking, enterprising Chinese. They did most of the heavy lifting in Hong Kong. Today, it’s laughable to read these books and reflect on the patronising media coverage.

For the record, Hong Kong is still here. It’s GDP has risen 87% since 1997. Yes, it has many challenging issues. Yet, guess what? It's not fallen.

Asian Financial Crisis -1997

The causes of the 1997 Asian financial crisis are disputed. What is not disputed is its impact and the events that unfolded in Hong Kong. With the markets in turmoil, speculators started a move against the Hong Kong dollar. They thought they'd make a large easy profit. The Hong Kong dollar, linked to the US dollar since 1983 to give stability, saw a period of volatility. In a bold move, the Hong Kong government fought off the speculators. It spent $1 billion of its reserves in the process. The speculators got burnt and the peg held. In the process, the stock market lost 23% of its value in three days. Confidence was tested.

That was not the end of the game. The speculators came back in August 1998. They’d recognised a weakness in the currency overnight exchange rates. This allowed them to profit from short-selling shares. In response, the government started buying up shares on the Hang Seng Index. Having spent US$15 billion on shares, the speculators withdrew to lick their wounds. When it was all over the government was the largest shareholder of many companies. Starting in 1999, it divested itself of the shares making a profit of US$4 billion in the process. Not a bad result. The whole episode demonstrated that Hong Kong had financial clout. This backed by a determination and nerve to take on the market.

SARS -2003

I was front and centre responding to this crisis. I commanded the first police formation to deal with the disease. It took me a week to get people to sit up and take notice. But that’s another story. SARS emerged in Foshan City on the mainland in November 2002. By early 2003 doctors in China realised they had an epidemic on their hands. Reports to Beijing set off alarms. Whilst informing the WHO, the Chinese sought to play down the crisis. Unfortunately, events were about to expose the disease to the world. Putting Hong Kong at its epicentre.

On 21st February 2003, Dr. Liu Jianglun, who had treated SARS in Guangzhou, arrived in Hong Kong. He knew he had the illness. The next day he checks into the Kwong Wah Hospital telling staff he has a virulent disease. In the meantime, he’d spread the virus through the Metropole Hotel. From there it went on a journey to Vietnam, Canada, Singapore and Ireland. By 4th March Dr. Liu is dead. The next day a woman dies in Canada. She’d stayed on the same floor as Dr. Liu. Five of her relatives are also infected.

Johnny Chen who stayed opposite Dr. Liu at the Metropole has since travelled to Vietnam. He’s taken ill, returned to Hong Kong and treated at the Prince of Wales Hospital. He dies on 13th March, not before setting off another cluster of cases. This time its health care workers. Meanwhile, the Hong Kong government is saying there is no cause for concern. The World Health Organisation takes a different view. It places Hong Kong on a travel alert. In response, the Secretary for Health, Dr Yeoh, accuses the WHO of spreading panic. At the same time, Air China flight 112 from Hong Kong to Beijing is recorded to have 24 infections aboard.

Professor Sydney Chung of the Chinese University comes out on 17th March to say the disease is spreading through the community. Dr. Yeoh finally admits the truth. By the time Hong Kong is removed from the WHO list of SARS-affected areas on 23rd June, 348 are dead from 1,755 infections. That data tells you nothing of the other impacts. A government shaken to its core. Damaged and struggling. Misleading the public, then an inadequate initial response eroded public confidence. Portrayed as the centre of the outbreak, Hong Kong shudders. That title is unfair as the disease emerged on the mainland. It's too late, the dye is cast.

Long term, trust in the government slipped. The Chief Executive, Tung Chi-wah, was out of his depth. It was only a matter of time before he went. Dr. Yeoh and other officials sought to recover by orchestrating the clean-up. But, the damage is done.

The community fought back with grassroots initiatives. Simultaneously, funding to promote Hong Kong flushes onto the international stage. The economic impacts soon lapsed as the innovative Hong Kong people got back to business. Yet, it's inescapable that citizens looked at their government with deep suspicion. Moves to introduce anti-sedition laws (Article 23) that summer brought an unprecedented wave of protests. Half a million citizens marched in a massive display of dissatisfaction. Their voices echoed all the way to Beijing. Article 23 is withdrawn as the political landscape shifted. SARS exposed deficiencies in Hong Kong governance that continue to this day.

Occupy - 2014

I’ve written about Occupy elsewhere here. What is worth emphasising is how people got on with their daily routine. Despite major thoroughfares blocked and other disruptive activities, people carried on. After the initial violence, a period of stalemate existed for many weeks as each side waited. Access routes to the central business district are blocked. Obstructions in Causeway Bay and Mongkok disrupt the routine. Without faltering, the public switched routes. Buses and trams diverted. The MTR system bypassed the barricades, whilst people took to walking in. Businesses had to accept staff arriving late or be more flexible on their hours.

Working from home flourished. Facilitated by the internet and ease of access to computers. Executives opted out of going to the office. There is evidence that a trend emerged of moving offices away from core districts. Satellite business districts emerged in Kwun Tong and around Tai Koo Place in Quarry Bay.

It’s fair to say that many enjoyed the open car-free space created in Central. Certainly air pollution eased as traffic was forced off the roads. Yet, public patience wore thin the longer the obstruction continued. Sentiment turned against the occupiers it matters dragged on. Especially when bouts of violence revealed the ugly side of their campaign.

As Occupy wound down crumbling under the weight of its own hubris, the Hong Kong public wanted an end. The protesters had overstayed their welcome. The one residual impact is the polarisation of opinion. Even today, three years after the event, the scars linger. Friends broke up, families disputed. Hanging around like an unwelcome relative is the bastard child of Occupy. The ill-conceived and heretical independence movement.

The next crisis is no doubt around the corner. Whether its political, environmental or health-related who knows. What I do know is that Hong Kong is ready. It’s innovative, flexible and stoic people will face the challenge. Then triumph.

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10/6/2017 0 Comments

The Mayhem of Mrs May!

Mrs Mayhem.

Theresa May's cold calculation that she could vanquish Labour, whilst attaining a mandate for Brexit has failed. In a massive turnout ... 70% of the voters … the public has decided to send a mixed message. There is no outright winner, nobody got the majority of 326 seats needed to rule outright.

Diminished and weakened. That's the position of the United Kingdom. From my point of view in Hong Kong, the UK had a certain intellectual gravitas. That gave it considerable weight on the international stage. The Brexit vote caused many around the world to question that status. This election has prompted more questions. Are the Brits being rational? What are the motives here? Who deliberately damages their own economy?

German TV is reporting that May is a 'lame duck. Her strong and stable stance has evaporated overnight. If she survives as PM, she will limp into Brexit negotiations with Europe. A wobbly, wrong-footed emissary of doubtful stature. She has lost her acclaimed ‘hard Brexit’.

That’s assuming she survives the next week. As her future looks in serious doubt. She placed herself front and centre during the campaign. Other party members were kept in the wings as Theresa strutted about in her fancy shoes. Yet, without a question, she ran a dreadful campaign. Her refusal to appear in debates, her high-handed manner and the rote messages failed to connect. She reversed direction on key policies. Her robotic style was lousy at connecting with the voters. Many realised her seesawing did not bode well for Brexit negotiations.

The atrocious terrorist attacks in Manchester and London handed her an open goal. These events should have given her a boost. The strong leader. Making strong statements. Unfortunately, her recent history caught up and the advantage disappeared. As Home Secretary, she’d slashed police budgets. When the cops warned her of the dangers, she attacked them as ‘scaremongers’. Retired cop after retired cop lined up to remind the public of May’s actions.

By all reckoning, May assumed she had an open road to a big majority. How she formed that view can be attributed to her insular style of management. She is cut off from alternative voices. As a result, she is now in the fight of her life to keep the PM position, with the sharks circling. And her timing couldn't be worse. In 10 days, she is supposed to start negotiation on Brexit. The Europeans must be laughing at her.

May’s survival now depends on the Democratic Unionist Party. The DUP is a group of ultra-conservative nationalist politicians from Northern Ireland. Whilst the DUP is pragmatic about its agenda, it will no doubt extract a heavy price from May for any support. That does not bode well for the complexities of Northern Ireland’s situation. Watch this space.

Looking to the Labour Party, we all owe Jeremy Corbyn an apology. He has won Labour more seats than any leader since Clement Attlee in 1945. That is a remarkable achievement. He did this against the background of a hostile press. Plus, a history that should have counted against him with a good part of the British public. His open attitude towards terrorist groups; a willingness to compromise with them could have lost him votes. The young voters buoyed his numbers, having stayed away during the Brexit vote last year. Plus, maybe, we are witnessing a generational change as young voters assert themselves. Either way, he can claim a win.

Other smaller parties have lost ground. United Kingdom Independence Party is destroyed. Unless it can rally itself it’s no longer a force in British politics. Meanwhile, over the border in Scotland, the Scottish Nationalist Party are licking their wounds. They dropped 19 seats. That takes the independence vote off the agenda for Nichola Sturgeon.

In a defiant speech after visiting the Queen, Theresa May declared she will form a government. Its a coalition with the DUP. Her arrogance was still evident. She failed to acknowledge her mistake, nor take any blame for this shambles. Meanwhile, senior Tory figures have remained silent. It’s well to remember that the Tories have a track record of ruthlessness when it comes to removing leaders. Even the mighty Mrs Thatcher was outflanked by the grey men. All things considered, Theresa May’s days are numbered.

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7/6/2017 0 Comments

Troubled Times.

After Manchester and now London, I'm struggling to summons up the words that capture my feelings. Anger is there. Anger at the senseless violence against folks enjoying themselves. Pity and sadness also for the relatives of those killed and injured. Shame enters the mix. I feel helpless watching events unfold on TV. Shame that my response is noise in the echo chamber. Hovering in the background is a sense of disconnection from all the tributes, eulogies, candle burning and general hand-wringing.

What’s the point? Will it stop another attack? That disconnection arises from the UK's lack of honesty about the threats it faces from radical Islam. For too long, political correctness has held sway. Virtue signalling types shutting down difficult public discussions with their lazy claims of racism and Islamic phobia.

The rote reaction seen after the London attack demonstrates nothing has been learnt. The politicians posturing, whilst pointing the finger at each other. Teresa May slashed police numbers. When they raised a cry, she trashed them with accusations of scaremongering. On the other hand, can we trust Jeremy Corbyn? He has a track record of voting down measures to curtail terrorist groups. His expressed support for certain terrorists is on record. Not good is it.

For me, none of the politicians carries the necessary conviction to deal with the issue at hand. None is honest or brave enough to affirm that tough, across the board, measures are needed.

Let us be clear, no one is suggesting all Muslims are involved. Such a suggestion is plain daft. Yet, it is undisputed that some mosques in the UK are being used as centres for radicalisation. The moderate Muslims have been saying this for years, demanding action that has not been taken. There is emerging evidence that the security services failed to act on warnings regarding at least one of the attackers, Khuram Shazad Butt. He appeared in a 2016 Channel 4 documentary ‘The Jihadis Next Door’. He made no secret of his radical views. Moreover, he was repeatedly ejected from mosques for his activities.

I don’t wish to rush to judgement. It's unclear exactly what evidence the authorities had. Plus, whether resource constraints allowed a proper and full assessment of that evidence. That second point loops back to the strident cuts Theresa May imposed on the police. In particular, her slashing of budgets hit community-level policing and intelligence gathering. The very sort of activity that would have given a clear picture of the threat posed by Butt.

What is reassuring is that in the documentary, moderate Muslims repeatedly confronted Butt and his radical friends. These brave interventions give weight to the view that some in the Muslim community are seeking to tackle the radicals. More power to those people.

So, what can be done? Well, funding for the police needs to be adequate for the challenge faced. Reinstating neighbourhood policing teams to full manning levels would be a good start. That way intelligence and information can be fed into the system.

The police themselves need to change. They have to shake off the remnants of their ‘Dickson of Dock Green image. Every officer should be carrying a firearm. Yes, I know a good percentage of officers cannot accept that. Then, I would ask whether they are in a position to protect the public and themselves? That’s their sworn duty. One brave officer with a baton had a go in London. He was overcome. Imagine the outcome had that brave officer had a gun. People would be at home with their loved ones, not on a morgue table.

Soft policies weighed down by political correctness, need to go. People who express extremists views who are not UK citizens must be deported. No second chance or wobbling about their rights. UK citizens who express violent extremists views should be placed under strict control orders and curfews. Infringements of the conditions will mean detention.

Finally, the key to success lies with the Muslim community. A robust partnership with the security services to expose those who preach and encourage radical Islam is crucial. Their support base must be removed, the roots that nourish the violence ripped up and facilitators of hate exposed. Only then we truly can address the issue.

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20 Years On. Crime is evolving.

20 Years On. Crisis - What Crisis?

The Mayhem of Mrs May!

Troubled Times.

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