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Walter's Blog

"But how can you live and have no story to tell?" Fyodor Dostoevsky

Reflections on recent events, plus the occasional fact free rant unfiltered by rational argument.

"If you want to read a blog to get a sense of what is going on in Hong Kong these days or a blog that would tell you what life was like living in colonial Hong Kong, this blog, WALTER'S BLOG, fits the bill." Hong Kong Blog Review

25/6/2017 0 Comments

20th Anniversary - Reject the Doubters

Hong Kong’s story is one of survival. It’s confounded the naysayers time and time again. The return of Chinese sovereignty was another instance when it shook off the critics. We are still here, our GDP continues to grow. In the sweep of history, this has meant going from drug trafficking to general trade and to shipping. Next came garment and toy making, and most recently, business services.

We’ve shaken off SARS, the odd financial crisis, riots, civil disobedience plus rampant corruption. And Chinese rule was always inevitable. Yet it came with a high degree of autonomy. The alarmists predicted doom, civil rights abuses and mass arrests. It didn’t happen. Indeed, China has remained hands-off until the ill-conceived Occupy movement provoked their attention. It’s off-spring, the nonsensical independence movement has rattled them.

Simply put, a very small group of agitators is acting to provoke Beijing. This situation is made worse by the failure of the Pan Dems as a group to condemn these activities. Should Beijing view Hong Kong as a centre for separatist activity, the consequences could be serious. The community needs to come together to reject the independence calls.

As it was, Occupy crumbled away. Nothing of its size appears in the offing. It’s leaders dissipated their energies. Of course, they continue to make appearances overseas talking about their struggle. Yet, the inescapable fact is that the tide turned against them. Meanwhile, the deluded author of Occupy continues his futile scheming earning the criticism of all sides.

With political development stalled, Beijing has no motivation to revisit the issue. A tactical error by the Pan Dems in 2015 closed that door. That’s no bad thing. Like others, I take the view that a period of calm in the political arena would do Hong Kong much good. All sides need to tone down the rhetoric to allow rational conversations to proceed. Yelling and posturing only beget hardline statements from the other side.

The current arrangements that govern Hong Kong expire in 2047. That’s only 30 years away. Without a doubt, Beijing will decide the shape of things beyond that date. Going against the naysayers again, I’ll predict a revised form of “one country, two systems”. No one, least of all Beijing, wants to see Hong Kong fail. What does it say that the British made this place thrive and prosper, but China ran it down? That would be a massive loss of face. Moreover, any prospect of the big prize, unification with Taiwan, would disappear.

Also, Hong Kong remains a true international finance centre. This status serves China’s interests. Despite claims to the contrary, Shanghai is some time off becoming an equal to Hong Kong on that score. Access to information, open communication and an independent legal system anchor that status. Thus, it is in Beijing’s interests to honour its commitments.

Granted there have been instances that cause concern. Yet what is remarkable is how little Beijing has impinged on Hong Kong. It exercised considerable patience during the Occupy protests. It could have asserted the Hong Kong government had lost control of the situation. Instead, Beijing waited.

There is evidence enough that Hong Kong would struggle to survive without the largess of China. All the hectoring, shouting through megaphones by Pan Dems, can't change the facts. None of that matters. The facts are unassailable. Hong Kong takes its water, power and food from the mainland. Approximately 45 % of trade is with the mainland. We are connected, interconnected, locked in a symbiotic embrace. The sooner that people in Hong Kong acknowledge that, the better.

Looking to future, the naysayers and doom merchants wish to paint a bleak outlook. They are wrong again. All things considered, Hong Kong is in a favourable position to take advantage of new economic order. Geography, a common law legal system plus the free flow of information are in our favour. Then you have the unquestionable tenacity and skills of the local population. This creates a locus of exceptional opportunity.

Do Hong Kong people still have the verve to seize the moment? Time will tell

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25/6/2017 0 Comments

Friday Cartoon, on a Sunday.

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24/6/2017 0 Comments

20 Years On: Milk Powder and the Mainlanders

Milk powder. Who’d have thought that milk power would become a political issue? More specifically, what has milk power got to do with Hong Kong’s relationship with the mainland? The answer is everything. Following the 2008 mainland plastic in milk powder scandal, mothers no longer trusted their local producers. In response, a whole industry developed of acquiring milk powder from Hong Kong. In the process, this made it impossible for Hong Kong parents to source milk powder in the city.

Thousands of parallel importers scoured the city, hoovering up all the milk power. Laws proved necessary to curtail the practice. This episode was part of a series of events that fueled anti-mainland sentiment. These events have had a profound impact on governance, perceptions of Hong Kong’s standing and its position in the world.

Before 1997, the people of Hong Kong enjoyed a special status that marked them as different from their mainland brothers and sisters. This feeds a self-belief. Many perceived themselves as more cultured, worldly and dignified. Unfortunately, this self-image is now challenged on all fronts. Mainlanders have the money, access to the world, plus an increasing sophistication. Hong Kong is looking like an old frumpy aunt who has been outshone and usurped by an arrogant upstart relative.

Let us face it, 1997 was a confusing and unsettling event for some. Whilst, a good part of the public embraced the future recognising Hong Kong’s position in China, others were uneasy. An unknown future, coupled with recent events, including the Tiananmen killings, resonated around their heads. Some opted to leave, moving overseas to make a new life. Often, this was another move in a sequence that saw their ancestors flee unrest on the mainland.

I recall the night of the handover switching over my uniform insignia and cap badge. Being busy I did it before midnight and then got on with my work. There was no emotion attached to it. I’d already gone through that process contemplating whether I’d stay or go. Having opted to remain in the service, I’d made the mental transition. Later at about 1 am, I ribbed a senior Chinese officer that he was still wearing the colonial badges. That earned me a sharp, “I’ll change when I’m ready”

My tactless remark exposed a truth. Others were not as sanguine as me. Many of my colleagues found the handover a wrenching experience. Again, the unknowns probably played a significant role in their uneasiness.

Yet, no matter how you look at it, people’s worst fears have proved unfounded. The PLA is not on the streets. The policing of Hong Kong remains in the hands of the locals. Cases are heard in Courts that have demonstrated their autonomy from political interference.

Despite phoney claims that free speech is being suppressed, this is not the case. Any rational assessment supports that view. The print media, online and radio people continue to speak freely to express a broad range of opinions. I don’t accept the position of Journalist Association on this matter. They are hardly impartial observers. They forfeited impartiality by allying themselves to political causes. Their bias is evident in their reporting and actions. I favour a free press that is fair, non-partisan and even-handed. A fair part of the Hong Kong print media is none of these things.

Ardent detractors of China claim the rule of law is under threat. They cite the bookseller abductions, plus the disappearance of Xiao Jianhua from a Hong Kong Hotel. These are disturbing instances for which an explanation is owed. These are rare cases. Moreover, the furore that resulted demonstrated civil society is alive and well.

Hong Kong University has tracked public sentiment in a rolling survey since 1992. Conducted every two months, the survey represents the most thorough assessment of the public mood over time. In broad terms, sentiment fell from 1992 to 1995, then climbed to a high level in 1997 as the handover took place. The new dawn of rule under China was initially playing well with the public.

Then the Asia Financial crisis and SARS saw public unease grow. Sentiment plunged to new lows as Hong Kong shook under the impact of SARS. The rebound was dramatic, as by 2006 new heights of confidence were reached. Unfortunately, since then it's been a steady decline. The lowest ratings were recorded during the 2014 Occupy Movement. With the 20th Anniversary next week, the sentiment data remains in the doldrums.

Hong Kong’s relationship with the Mainland is complicated by a lot of baggage. Many residents came to Hong Kong fleeing the upheavals of China in the 1950s and 1960s. The blood links to the mainland are deep. Some worked to help China stand up as it adopted an open-door policy, They made a good living in the process. Then, as China opened to the world, it was Hong Kong entrepreneurs who give it substance with investment.

Proud of the progress that China made, Hong Kong people took pride in their contribution. Soon that pride was overtaken by fears that mainlanders were burning up Hong Kong’s world class services. Local mothers struggled to access hospitals to give birth as wards overflowed with mainland mothers. Then tourists and traders overwhelmed the streets. The locals felt under siege. Whilst the tourists brought jobs, the economic benefits were not seen by all. Crowded public transport systems grew intolerable as throngs of tourists added to the daily struggle of life.

Instances of open conflict between local and mainlander were rare. Social media fed public opinion. Pictures of people defecating in public or behaving in an unruly manner did the rounds. A drunk mainland couple caught in flagrante delicto on a Kowloon Tong Street became instant internet stars. These instances drove a narrative of uncouth mainlanders. Of course, Hong Kongers are not beyond reproach. It would be easy to produce video clips of locals misbehaving. That’s not the point. The issue here is a rift being fed by echo chamber noise. Until that is disrupted or it abates nothing much will change.

Cases of corruption involving the highest levels of government surfaced in recent years. Given Hong Kong’s history, these are a stark reminder that without vigilance things could soon slip. Feeding the narrative that the governance is eroding are delays in dealing with key issues. Poverty, the wealth gap, a universal pension scheme and the lamentable MPF rip off all irk the public. Many in the community believe they are getting a poor deal. Meanwhile, the government is seen to favour vested interests over the wider community. The veracity of these assertions is debatable. But, people perceive it to be true, thus that shapes their sentiment.

The government could sway sentiment with a few simple initiatives. The question is does it have the courage to tackle these issues. It cannot make the excuse it has limited financial resources. The Hong Kong’s Treasury is awash with cash. Foreign exchange reserves in Hong Kong increased to an all-time high of $402.7 billion in May of 2017. It represents over seven times the currency in circulation. Then there are the vast sums hidden in other accounts. The bottom line is the government has the funds to pay a decent old age pension scheme and revamp the MPF.

On the flip side, the Hong Kong public need to count their blessings. Our city remains a safe place. Children can take public transport or move about without fear of crime. Taxes are low. Our public transport systems are the envy of the world. It’s easy to set up a business here. A 20-minute drive from just about anywhere in the city will take you to idyllic beaches and hiking trails through lush green mountains. With one restaurant for every 600 people, Hong Kong boasts one of the highest concentrations of cafes and restaurants in the world. And the setting. That view from the Peak or the Kowloon waterfront takes your breath away.

So, lighten up Hong Kong.

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19/6/2017 0 Comments

20 Years On. Crime is evolving.

Hong Kong’s crime trend mirrors what’s going on elsewhere in the world. In broad terms crime is moving online. Frauds, deceptions and outright theft of material are all features of the new crime era. Street crime such as robberies, snatching and assorted hooliganism are down. The gun crime that was a feature of the 1990s is now rare. These crimes disappeared as the mainland imposed tighter controls on their side of the fence.

I’ve written in some detail about crime in this blog. This piece aims to review the changes in the past twenty years since the handover. For visitors, tourists and residents alike, Hong Kong is one of the safest places in the world. In short, there is little to worry about. A polite, efficient and well-resourced police force is omnipresent in the city. This visibility and the need to carry identity cards means crime can be ‘nipped in the bud’.

Official police crime statistics tell a story. Total recorded crime in 2001 was 73,008 cases. In 2016, the figure was 60,646. That’s against the background of adding two million people to the population. Robberies in 2001, stood at 3,167 cases. By 2016 robberies dropped to 260 cases. Deceptions are the growth industry. In 2001, the public reported 4,051 deception cases to police. By 2015, the number was 9,355, although it dropped 7,260 in 2016. Of course, official crime statistics should be treated with caution. Past crime victimisation surveys have found that some crimes are under-reported. Thefts and other minor cases often don’t make it to the statistics. Similar things are seen in all jurisdictions. The public doesn’t want to waste time on a report and statement taking.

Online deceptions and con tricks have exploded with the adoption of the internet. The internet has given the criminal access to every home. Criminal gangs are leveraging social-engineering techniques to ensnail people. The methods have evolved over time. The street deception emerged in the late 1990s. Old folks were the target. The hoaxers claimed bad luck was about to befall them. Actors pretending to be monks and shamans assisted the sting. Pensioners handed over money in worship ceremony purported to protect them. Education and vigilant bank staff helped curtail that trend.

Next emerged the fake calls from public security officials. These deception came in several varieties. Either you or a relative had committed a crime on the mainland. Paying Money could resolve matters. The calls came in from overseas, which hampered enforcement efforts. Again, education was the key.

Over time, the con artists became more sophisticated. Ladies, some well-educated and very wealthy, were groomed online. Made to believe the other party loved them and that marriage is on the cards. The scammers took in millions of dollars. Meanwhile, men engaging in sex acts with online lady friends found themselves threatened. Pay up or get exposed.

In 2015, scammers garnered an estimated $78-HK million. Masterminded in Taiwan, the syndicates operated from Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand and Cambodia. In 2016 there were 1,423 reports of such scams. Police said 561 of those cases were successful, with a total haul of HK$300 million.

Police enforcement had some success working with overseas agencies. Syndicates were hit and shut down. Yet, the scams are so lucrative that new syndicates sprang up to replace the old. All the evidence points towards education being the best defence. Citizens need vigilance.

Drug trafficking has benefitted from social media and instant messaging. Addicts don’t need to wander down to the trafficking spots to buy their drugs. Just make a call. A courier will bring them around. Interdiction by the police is harder because the trafficker is no longer static.

Emerging social concerns are also bringing pressure to the police. Animal cruelty cases provoke an emotive reaction. A few politicians have exploited these to drum up anti-police sentiment. Claims of a lack of sympathy or inaction are easy to make. Likewise, allegations of insensitivity towards sex workers and rape victims are trotted out. Most of these assertions do not stand up to critical examination, but the damage is done. Meanwhile, domestic violence cases continue to draw on police resources. Strict protocols mandate police action and the inter-agency follow-up. These procedures seek to keep families safe.

Public order duties have in recent years undermined police efforts against crime. Manpower taken away from routine front-line duties erodes many initiatives. The tempo of anti-crime operations needed to slow as officers focused on other duties. Criminals benefited from this distraction.

At a local level, the police are coming under more scrutiny to resolve illegal parking. The government's failure to control vehicle numbers or provide off-street parking puts the police on the spot. Communities are rightly demanding that roads are clear for traffic flow and emergency vehicle access. Even relentless enforcement action does little to dent the problem. Parking fines are so low, the drivers accept the costs as a business expense. Thus, ineffective policies are aggravating tensions between the public and police.

Since 1997, the Hong Kong Police has benefited from societal changes. Diminishing on-street crime can be attributed to many factors. Gentrification and the appearance of a middle class are contributing. Moreover, people are indoors playing video games rather than on the streets at night. Effective police action that targets known individuals and black-spots is proving effective.

The prevalence of online crime will no doubt continue to be a significant challenge. Street management issues are also coming to the fore. Illegal parking and obstructions irk the public. Poor planning coupled with weak policies will feed that testing situation.

Finally, its worth commenting on public satisfaction with the police. The Hong Kong University tracking survey had satisfaction at 63% in 2012. By 2016, a modest increase to 64% occurred. As regards perception of safety during daytime, a 2015 survey returned a high satisfaction rate of 90 per cent. At night, the figure was 75%. Both figures support the view that the public feels safe.

And what of the future? Immediate policing challenges will focus on public order duties and the management of protest. That thankless task will remain as tricky as ever.

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Walter's Blog

20th Anniversary - Reject the Doubters

Friday Cartoon, on a Sunday.

20 Years On: Milk Powder and the Mainlanders

20 Years On. Crime is evolving.

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