China Pivots

"China must immediately forge ahead to increase the rates of protection for the elderly."

Zero Covid is ending. In recent days China eased many of its Covid rules in an apparent response to the protest that broke out in the past fortnight. Although I suspect economic concerns are also a significant driver.

​These changes are intriguing because many so-called China experts predicted severe measures, with Beijing doubling down to assert its authority. A few conjured up the specter of 1989, proving themselves wildly off the mark. 

Instead, President Xi confounded the pundits with sweeping relaxations and a call for more precise action. That's not to say that China is out of the woods. Far from it. Unfortunately, the easing may invite a swift and significant surge in cases with terrible consequences for the unvaccinated elderly. Likewise, remote rural communities may prove exposed. 

Almost 90% of the population has had two jabs. Yet the elderly are the most vulnerable because a healthy 80-year-old is over 100 times more likely to die from covid than a healthy 20-year-old. Moreover, the data tells us that only 40% of those over-80s have had three covid shots needed to prevent severe disease and death. 

So China must immediately forge ahead to increase the rates of protection for the elderly because modelling by experts from The Economist suggests around 680,000 people will die. More pessimistic models put the deaths at 1.5 million in months. Either way, a lot of people die.

That said, if coverage were around 90% for the elderly and antiviral treatments viable, the model says that deaths would fall to approximately 68,000. The harsh reality of that figure is a palatable hit, whereas the much higher figures are not. 

The Zero Covid policy started as a stunning success by sparing millions of Chinese lives. Plus, less Covid also meant less economic harm. Still, as I wrote some time ago, there is no easy way out of the current health crisis with economic impacts that continue to grow. 

For example, the number of domestic flights in China is down by 45% yearly, road freight is 33% lower, and traffic on city metros has fallen by 32%. Meanwhile, urban youth unemployment is almost 18%, double what it was in 2018.

In response, the tone of a few Western media outlets is almost gleeful, gloating that China has been 'forced' into these actions that may see a wave of deaths. Yet, I'd warn of the dangers of schadenfreude because if China takes a hit, the world economy suffers. 

What does this mean for Hong Kong? In the immediate short term, not much. The government announced a few modest tweaks to the Covid protocols that don't offer respite for the majority. In the longer term, over the next few months, travel to the Mainland may relax further, and a clear path back to some form of normality should emerge. 

Whether more families will get home for the coming Chinese New Year traditional reunion is unclear. Opening the border quotas would help, but I doubt that is possible. I hope I'm wrong because things are moving faster than expected, and thousands of folks are yearning to embrace long-missed relatives.