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Walter's Blog

"But how can you live and have no story to tell?" Fyodor Dostoevsky

Reflections on recent events, plus the occasional fact free rant unfiltered by rational argument.

"If you want to read a blog to get a sense of what is going on in Hong Kong these days or a blog that would tell you what life was like living in colonial Hong Kong, this blog, WALTER'S BLOG, fits the bill." Hong Kong Blog Review

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19/10/2023 1 Comment

Hindsight And Spot The Gorilla?

"As Sun Tzu asserted centuries ago, "War is a game of deception".

The attack on Israel by the Hamas terrorists has inflamed internecine hatred worldwide. It may trigger a much broader and more disastrous conflict.

The focus now is on how Israel will respond immediately after the attacks. For sure, summoning up the ghost of Bomber Harris, Hamas will soon "reap the whirlwind".

Meanwhile, speculation about the failure of the Israelis and their U.S. patrons to see the attack coming continues; after all, the Gaza Strip is one of the most monitored areas on the planet. Doubtless, a thorough examination of this lapse will occur.

Is it possible that the Americans had taken their eye off the ball and were distracted by the war in Ukraine? Indeed, the week before the Hamas slaughter of innocents, U.S. national security advisor Jake Sullivan asserted, "The Middle East is the quietest today that it has been for two decades."

We've also heard that the Egyptians gave warnings. Although, as Sun Tzu asserted centuries ago, "War is a game of deception". And I take no pleasure in acknowledging that Hamas's strategy on where, when and how to attack was flawless.

So, why did the Israelis not spot the signs? Perhaps they did, only for other phenomena to compromise the intelligence process. History tells us it's happened before.

During Middle East tension between January and October 1973, the Egyptians mobilised their army 19 times without going to war. They built fortifications, then moved tank formations to the border while Israel watched. Meanwhile, informants fed Israel warnings of an impending attack.

The hard truth is that Israel couldn't afford to respond to every mobilisation of its enemy. Maintaining vast reserves of troops in the field is expensive, disruptive to the economy and alert fatigue creeps in.

Then, on 6 October 1973, the Egyptians and Syrians attacked, taking Israel by surprise and kicking off the Yom Kippur War. The assault made quick advances, threatening the very existence of Israel. Prime Minister Golda Meir feared the worst as she ordered the preparation of nuclear bombs to halt the advance of the Egyptians and Syrians.

These preparations proved unnecessary. By the end of October, the Israelis had rallied with a series of successful counterattacks that gave them a victory.

Another notable instance of intelligence failure is the 2001 9/11 attack on the U.S. Like the events in Israel two weeks ago, 9/11 cut deep into the national psyche. Later inquiries established that the FBI and CIA had identified activities and individuals preparing the attack. Yet, nobody cut through all the background noise to recognise the significance of these separate events.

One of the challenges faced by the FBI was that they had over 68,000 outstanding terrorist leads that needed investigating. Their analysis couldn't see through the clutter to discern the unfolding patterns.

Also, the fact that the FBI, CIA, and other agencies operated in silos, prevented cooperation.

For the recent atrocity, it appears Hamas understood the limitations of the Israeli intelligence system. They recognised the inability to process vast amounts of information to recognise patterns could be an advantage to them. Hence, they turned the very sophistication of the intelligence system against itself by conducting many small scale activities to distract the Israelis. It worked.

And false alarms can be as dangerous. In November 1983, the NATO Able Archer exercise almost led to a nuclear exchange between the Soviets and the NATO countries. The exercise, involving deployments on the ground and the activation of nuclear protocols, spooked the Soviets. They believed that the exercise was a cover for a pre-emptive strike. In response, they began preparations to hit NATO first.

NATO, seeing the Soviets mobilising, then worried an attack was coming. Fortunately, a decision to end the exercise de-escalated the situation. The whole story only emerged in 2021, when declassified Soviet documents appeared.

Many will be familiar with the "Did you spot the gorilla video?" This clip illustrates the difficulties of understanding events when focused on one activity in a dynamic situation. You may miss something obvious that is taking place.

Also, never underestimate the impact of political factors on intelligence assessment. The shenanigans around the 'weapons of mass destruction' and the 2003 Iraq invasion prove the point.

During the buildup, individuals within the Western intelligence community knew that the evidence for 'weapons of mass destruction' didn't exist. But the intelligence community fell in line as President Bush and PM Tony Blair pushed for an excuse to act. Then, an invasion with disastrous consequences played out.

When the history of this awful episode in Israel is written, I'm sure it will become clear that the Israelis logged some indicators an attack was coming. Unfortunately, hindsight isn't much help.

Lastly, things aren't getting any easier. Modern intelligence-gathering systems generate so much stuff that discerning the credible is getting harder and harder. Then layered atop the overload are organisational and cultural factors, and you can understand how things get missed.

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11/10/2023 0 Comments

Another BBC Whitewash!

"I’d be more interested to see the BBC explore how, when and why it gave Savile refuge for decades."

The BBC docudrama “The Reckoning” is nothing of the sort. If this BBC sleight of hand sought to distract us with a ‘look over there’ — it failed. Sold to us as the broadcaster exploring how prolific paedophile sex offender Jimmy Savile managed to “groom” the nation, I reckon they’ve produced a shameful whitewash.

We learn nothing new. The storyline steers around crucial events and notable players; these include the role of senior BBC management and their cover-up.

Much of the story we are presented is an edited rehash of old material in the public domain. Others have done it better. The Netflix documentary “Savile — A British Horror Story” proved more compelling. At the same time, this version by Underground Films is effective in telling the tale of Savile’s infiltration of institutions.

I’d be more interested to see the BBC explore how, when and why it gave Savile refuge for decades. Exploring those people in the BBC who facilitated, paid no heed to his crimes and then covered up would be a courageous endeavour. Instead, we get a diluted version of events that skips over the BBC’s culpability.

For example, the cancellation of the BBC Newsnight documentary that would expose Savile, is brushed over in seconds. The job finally fell to the rival ITV channel because the BBC, under Lord Chris Patten (the Hong Kong connection here), wouldn’t do the job. At the time Patten commented, in a stunning understatement, that the evidence of events at the BBC revealed an “unhappy picture”.

Patten later faced calls to resign and left the BBC with his reputation in tatters after it emerged he'd allegedly threatened an MP, who wished to push for the investigation to be reopened into the killing of the Newsnight documentary.

The basic story of how Savile gained and held his power rests in the power dynamic illustrated in the following Venn diagram.

In essence he courted and then manipulated prominent figures who opted to ignore the warnings of others. These include the then Prince Charles, PM Margaret Thatcher, the police and senior Catholics, including The Pope. Although, in fairness, given what we know about sex crimes in the Catholic Church, I suspect he’d hardly struggle to keep them on his side.

This BBC program downplays many aspects of how Savile operated, and instead, we get a repetition of awful incidents without the context of those helping in the background. Watching “The Reckoning”, you’d believe that the NHS was his primary enabler as he had access to wards at various hospitals. Nonetheless, we know that the BBC did much of the heavy work of shielding this monster and others.

A quick acknowledgement to actor Steve Coogan. He delivers a disturbingly realistic and nuanced performance as Savile. The voice and mannerisms are spot on, and he can easily manifest Savile’s sinister side. He is brave to tackle the role, although the script is not as noteworthy as Coogan claims in his many media interviews.

I note the BBC labelled “The Reckoning” as ‘Series 1’, suggesting a follow-up of the four episodes. If so, the BBC must summon some real intrepidness to examine its pivotal role in allowing Savile to flourish.

That would be a true reckoning.

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10/10/2023 0 Comments

Another Typhoon & Another Muddle

"While the planes kept coming, the Airport Express line— the main mass transit route into town — stopped running."

For the second time in a matter of weeks, a typhoon has tested Hong Kong's preparedness and exposed gaps in our readiness. Whereas Super Typhoon Saola barreled towards us at speed in September, Typhoon Koinu proved to be a coy beast. It moved slowly across the South China Sea, didn’t dissipate as expected, and brushed south as if teasing us.

Initial predictions had it arriving on Thursday, 5th October. Instead, it lingered and jinked about, making a final threatening move on Sunday. These deviations proved the point I’ve repeatedly made that forecasting is an art as much as a science.

The Nos 8 signal went up at midday on Sunday, although the winds didn’t appear to impact the airport as flights arrived and departed with ease. Then, when the Nos 9 signal went up at 7 p.m., this set in motion an unwelcome but predictable set of circumstances.

While the planes kept coming, the Airport Express line — the main mass transit route into town — stopped running. Simultaneously, buses and taxi services reduced their service, as is the norm under such circumstances.

According to the Airport Authority, 83 flights landed between 7 p.m. and midnight, with an estimated 16,000 passengers stranded. In fairness, the Observatory had warned of higher signals for several hours. And yet, it appears plans to deal with a transport shutdown were inadequate or poorly coordinated.

I can understand the reluctance of taxi drivers and bus operators because driving in a Nos 9 signal may invalidate their insurance. Comprehensive insurance usually covers typhoon damage but not third-party insurance. Hence, the unwillingness of some drivers to venture out of a typhoon especially when you tell them conditions are dangerous. Yet, a good number did come out to demand inflated payments.

Images of stranded passengers negotiating with taxi drivers for a ride downtown did nothing to enhance Hong Kong’s image. TV host Wong Yue-si claimed a taxi driver charged an outrageous HK$3,000 for a trip from the airport to downtown.

Nos 9 came down at 11.50 p.m., and the Airport Express resumed running to 3 a.m. to clear the backlog. But the Airport Express doesn’t serve all areas of Hong Kong, and with interconnecting MTR lines closed, people opted to wait hours in the taxi queue.

The whole saga raises many questions about coordination and contingency plans. Also, if planes can land, why can’t the trains run? I’m unaware that the Airport Express line suffered any damage or disruptions to service. Thus, a complete shutdown appeared unnecessary.

While short portions of the Airport Express are underground, most of the track is at ground level, making it vulnerable. Also, a suggestion to enclose the line to protect it from the wind and the impact of flying debris isn’t an immediate solution.

On a positive note, praise must go to JoJoBus. Owner Roy Tsang sought volunteer drivers to help move people stuck at the Tsuen Wan West station. He gathered eight buses to ferry people home for free. Besides, private motorists offered to help.

Still, Lawmaker Doreen Kong was right to ask, “I heard the SAR has already set up a typhoon response team. How come such a situation still happened?” It’s a fair question that Chief Executive John Lee acknowledged as he called for a review.

I’ve said it before and I’ll repeat it — a bit of “Red Teaming” is needed.

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7/10/2023 1 Comment

Mr Fox and Mr Packham - spot the difference.

"Breaking the law — as long as it doesn't endanger or harm anyone — is no big deal." Chris Packham

In the movie "Minority Report", the Pre-cogs — humans with extra sensory perception — can predict murder. A squad of officers then deploys to detain the future culprit before the crime occurs. It's an intriguing idea that creates a complex premise for an entertaining film. The original idea came from sci-fi writer Phillip K Dick, who gave us "Blade Runner" and many other classics.

In a bizarre set of circumstances, this links into events in London this week, confirming that reality and fiction come intertwined in hyper-reality.

The raid on UK politician Lawrence Fox's home and later arrest drew immediate conjecture that Mr Fox faced an investigation for his ill-considered remarks on TV. He’d stated that he wouldn't shag journalist Ava Evans after she'd engaged in a discussion dismissing male suicide as an issue. Mr Fox lost his temper at her callous opinions and paid a price for his outburst as GBNews fired him.

Ms Evan's purported distress at Mr Fox's remarks didn't stand up. It soon emerged that she'd frequently discussed who she would and wouldn't shag on her Twitter feed.

In truth, the police action against Mr Fox followed his support of the "Blade Runner" vigilantes — who are busy damaging and taking down the "Ultra Low Emission Zone" cameras that Labour Mayor Khan has installed across London. If a vehicle doesn't meet the ULEZ emission standards and isn't exempt, the owner must pay £12.50 a day to drive in London.

The ULEZ cameras catch offenders, most of whom are poorer citizens operating older cars they cannot afford to change. This discriminatory policy cost the Labour Party the Uxbridge by-election, a seat they should have won relatively easily.

In a series of clips online, Fox has shown support for and encouraged the actions of the "Blade Runners". This support prompted the conversation around Pre-cog crime because Mr Fox hadn't taken any action, although he stated he was in contact with the "Blade Runners." That was silly.

Further, his statements may have crossed a line to "conspiring to commit criminal damage and encouraging or assisting offences to be committed". These well-established common law principles are now nestled in the Serious Crimes Act of 2007.

Hong Kong has similar laws under section 159A of the Crime Ordinance, a fact that protesters and their keyboard cheerleaders could have noticed in 2019. Also, ignorance of the law is no defence.

Much of the outrage around the actions of the UK Police is a misunderstanding of the law and how "conspiracy" works. A "conspiracy" occurs when two or more people agree to commit a criminal act; the offence is complete once the agreement is made.

Thus, the comparison to Pre-cog crime is hardly relevant because "conspiracy" involves two or more people, whereas precognition is reading an individual's mind.

Moreover, it is not even necessary for a crime to occur to achieve a "conspiracy" offence. There are some exceptions and riders, as explained by a barrister here.

If the UK police action is questionable in any way, grounds worthy of examination are the proportionality and fairness of their actions.

For example, TV presenter and avowed environmental campaigner Chris Packham has discussed in interviews and a passionate documentary, "Is It Time To Break The Law?". He supports the aims of radical groups like "Just Stop Oil" and "Extinction Rebellion". Mr Packham concluded, "Breaking the law — as long as it doesn't endanger or harm anyone — is no big deal."

And with that, it could be argued he has, in effect, encouraged crime. In one recorded instance, he accompanied two culprits as they prepared to damage property, expressing sympathy. In another example, he allegedly applauded intimidation by a convicted man of a woman and her children. Still, whether these actions constitute "conspiracy" is a matter for the courts.

Under section 44 or 45 of the Serious Crime Act 2007, "encouraging" others is an offence. Yet, as Mr Packham hasn't faced an investigation, it is impossible to conclude any guilt. Although a layperson may feel his actions are not that different from Mr Fox's.

Mr Packham undoubtedly believes he has substantial grounds to fight for his beliefs — saving humanity and the planet is his mantra. Likewise, Mr Fox could claim the same privilege because he deems his cause right-minded. It is worth noting that the law should be blind to these moral aspects of crimes.

However, these motivation factors influence court decisions, usually in mitigation after conviction. Plus, juries may be more open to a not-guilty finding if they perceive the criminal actions as righteous.

Mr Packham and Mr Fox are not alone; many celebrities and others call for "action" over various causes, and their statements may prompt criminal acts. There are even instances of online videos teaching citizens how to defraud banks and the council to avoid tax. Thus, it is a fair question to ask why none of these instances have attracted the attention of the Police.

Still, it is not the Police's role to decide guilt, although they de facto act as the gatekeepers to who faces investigation. So, why go after Mr Fox when Mr Packham and others appear to get a free pass?

In the absence of other evidence, people will, of course, speculate. The general thrust of the discourse is that Mr Fox has challenged the authority of Mayor Khan and is now facing the consequences. To make that position tenable assumes that the Metropolitan Police acted on the Mayor's orders. And there is no evidence of that; indeed, the Police are supposed to be independent of such influence — I heard that somewhere.

Or maybe frustrated with their inability to catch all the "Blade Runners", Mr Fox is a valuable target to show they are doing something. Indeed, his careless comments have given the Police reason to believe he knows who is responsible for the damage to the ULEZ cameras.

Meanwhile, Pre-crime isn't real; criminal damage is criminal damage, no matter the motivation while “conspiracy” and “encouraging” crime are nothing new. For sure, critics of that position will argue that all genuine change has come through breaking conventions and the law, sometimes with violence — that's a more complex discussion for another day.

With Mr Fox out on bail, it will be interesting to see how this case develops.

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Hindsight And Spot The Gorilla?

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