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Walter's Blog

"But how can you live and have no story to tell?" Fyodor Dostoevsky

Reflections on recent events, plus the occasional fact free rant unfiltered by rational argument.

"If you want to read a blog to get a sense of what is going on in Hong Kong these days or a blog that would tell you wh at life was like living in colonial Hong Kong, this blog, WALTER'S BLOG, fits the bill." Hong Kong Blog Review

29/12/2022 2 Comments

Podcasts and Videos

"These Hong Kong true crime stories, occurred during my era. Yet, some of the detail is new to me."

Having addressed my reading choices, it's probably fair that I give an insight into my regular favourites for podcasts and video channels. I take most of my podcasts from Spotify, although several of my choices are available on other outlets. Here are some recommendations.

The Infinite Monkey Cage. (BBC Podcast) Professor Brain Cox and comedian Robin Ince take a lighthearted look at science. You will be entertained but also learn stuff. Now in the 12th series, it has asked: what is death, what happened before the big bang, is philosophy dead, and are pandas overrated? However, they are struggling with the big question; are strawberries alive?

Fast Jet Performance. (YouTube). This ex-RAF pilot covers issues of the day, leadership, people development and Britain's defences. Tim Davies delivers the blows as fast as he used to fly, frequently dropping 'truth bombs' that hit home to rattle the establishment.

Triggernometry. (Spotify Podcast and Youtube) Billed as a free-speech podcast, two comedians, a London lad and a Russian exile front this show. This odd couple have great chemistry as they and their guests explore the culture wars and other tricky issues. Raw and robust debate ensues. If you take offence at the truth, then avoid this podcast and crawl into your nearest safe space.

The Rest is Politics. (Spotify Podcast). Another odd couple. Rory Stewart is a Hong Kong-born ex-Conservative MP and former soldier. Joining him is Alastair Campbell, former Labour Party spin doctor and a controversial figure for his role in the Iraq war. The pair discuss politics and events while picking over their respective careers.

Stewart comes across as a thoroughly decent bloke who is probably ill-suited to the nasty world of politics. While Campbell affirms he is as thin-skinned as ever and willfully blind. He is often critical of others for precisely what he did when in power. Nonetheless, the dynamic between these two makes for fun listening, providing fascinating insights into the dysfunction of British politics.

Battleground - Ukraine. (Spotify Podcast) This podcast started by reviewing the Falklands War and has moved on to Ukraine. With their guests, military historians Patrick Bishop and Saul David examine the latest developments from an Anglo-Saxon disposition. At times they are less than balanced in their coverage, as both openly advocate for the Ukrainians, which colours their discussions and judgments. Still, worth a listen.

Catching Worms. (Spotify Podcast) These Hong Kong true crime stories occurred during my era. Yet, some of the detail is new to me. The podcast is gritty, with narration by the involved police officers, journalists and others who witnessed the cases first-hand.

The Alexei Sayle Podcast. (Spotify Podcast and Youtube) Everybody's favourite Marxist teddy bear is ageing and not mellowing much. Episodes are an eclectic mix, some excellent and others dull. His unusual interest in guns and Chinese martial arts, coupled with his delusions about how Jeremy Corbyn could lead the U.K. to the promised land, are amusing. Like many old Marxists, Alexei remains comfortable in his London bubble without facing the reality of a world his ideals would create. But he's still funny.

The Coming Storm. (BBC Podcast) QAnon and the plot to break reality are the focus of this podcast. Here you get a detailed account of how a conspiracy derailed U.S. politics and contributed to the storming of the Capital. It is a must-listen if you wish to comprehend how the internet works as a nexus that feeds a lunatic fringe and stokes unrest.

The Fall of Civilisations. (Spotify Podcast) Paul Copper provides a detailed account of why civilisations collapse. There are months of listening to work through here.

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24/12/2022 0 Comments

Books

"Our cognitive abilities, how we think, moralise and comprehend the world, are all changing..."

A friend asked about my reading habits. In the past 12 months, if my memory is correct, I've gotten through over ten physical books and three e-books. I struggle to enjoy e-books because the physicality of a book in the hand, and turning the pages are hardwired in my pre-digital era brain.

Here is a selection of books that I enjoyed over the past two years:

Has The West Lost It? by Kishore Mabubani. This powerful, no punches pulled book recommends that the West adapts to the "Rest". Short, concise and hard-hitting, Professor Mahbubani makes the case that the West needs to shape up and recognise that a new world order is emerging. The book is uncomfortable reading and driven by blunt honesty that the West's thought leaders are lost.
The Power of Geography - Ten Maps that Reveal The Future of Our World by Tim Marshall. This book, and others by Marshall, highlight the impact of geography, terrain and physical elements on politics. For example, the waters around the U.K. help define the national psyche, weakening the connections to European neighbours. Likewise, you don't want to invade Iran. Mountains mark the borders, creating a fortress, and Iran's history is littered with foreign soldiers dying in those mountains.
The Evolution Of Everything by Matt Ridley. This book debunks the doomsayers to document that human progress is on the right track.
The Tyranny Of Merit by Michael J. Sandel. This book offers alternative ways to think about success. Sandel asks that we recognise the dignity of work and service rather than the blind pursuit of academic qualifications, success and material rewards. In short, not everyone needs a degree.
Factfulness by Hans Rosling. Things are much better than you think; Rosling sets out the data to prove it. Once you disengage from the 24-hour news cycle to look at the bigger picture, the data shows we are making commendable progress on poverty, women’s right and a host of other metrics. Beware; you might have your opinions changed.
Vietnam by Max Hastings. A superb account of the origins, conduct and aftermath of the Vietnam War. Let's remember that thirty Vietnamese died for every American. Hastings uses declassified documents to show that the Americans knew they couldn't win in 1966, yet they kept fighting for almost another decade, resulting in untold horrors.
Mistakes Were Made (but not by me) by Carol Tavris and Elliot Aronson. We make mistakes, cling to outdated ideas, and mistreat other people. Then we create fictional reasons to absolve ourselves of responsibility, to restore our sense of being moral and right. The book explores a broad spectrum of human activities that involve twisting the truth to justify ourselves, from over-zealous police to willfully blind scientists.
Meditations by Marcus Aurelius. I'd recommend sitting down with Marcus at least once a day — usually in the smallest room, dipping into his thoughts, pausing for reflection. Remember to flush.
Truth by John D. Caputo. What is truth? Philosopher John Caputo seeks to define 'truth' in the modern era. He's not too heavy on the depths of philosophy but supports his arguments well.
The Weirdest People by Joseph Henrich. How your brain works and processes stuff is shaped by the culture you grew up in. In many ways, we are a cultural species. Our cognitive abilities, how we think, moralise and comprehend the world, are all changing, and we can see those adjustments in the brain's physical processes. Moreover, the collective brain brought about by cities, decent nutrition, and the time to think, help drive us forward.
The History of Philosophy by A.C. Grayling. First published in 1945, this book remains the definitive account of Western philosophy.
When The War Was Over (Cambodia and the Khmer Rouge) by Elizabeth Becker. A forensic examination of the rise, rule and fall of the Khmer Rouge. What is evident is that governments in Washington, Paris, Moscow, Beijing and Hanoi had a hand in creating a monster that wreaked a country.
The Three-Body Problem by Cixi Liu. The only piece of fiction I read this year (excluding The Guardian, Daily Mail, New York Times and other MSM). An outstanding work of science fiction that blends recent history, philosophy, cosmology and politics.
Spatial Cemetery - A Journey Beneath The Surface Of Hidden Hong Kong. A book of engaging pictures and text exploring Hong Kong's abandoned places, revealing a different side of this city that looks post-apocalyptic. The explorers belong to an urban exploration collective who venture into empty military barracks, old mines and an abandoned cinema.

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15/12/2022 2 Comments

2022 - Events Dear Boy, Events!

“By any reckoning, the man of the match is Zelensky”

When asked the biggest challenges for a statesman, former British Prime Minster Harold MacMillan replied, "Events, dear boy, events!" Well, for sure, the U.K. had plenty of events in 2022. Thus, I should start this 2022 review with post-imperial, post-industrial, and post-Brexit Britain, which is somewhat untethered.

Three prime ministers, two monarchs, near economic meltdown, a war, looming power cuts and England out of the World Cup. Events, my dear reader, events.

I recently heard the U.K. described as a computer game. You start in a room and play for weeks and months, jumping through the various levels. Along the way are all the machinations of politics with endless debates and handwringing. Then, in the end, you arrive back in the same dreary room. Nothing changes, nothing works, and everyone knows the politicians haven't got a clue — including the politicians.

So to cover their tracks, the politicians turned to show business by prancing around on reality TV. This is nothing new, "A family with the wrong members in control," George Orwell wrote of Britain.

It's the level of collective amnesia that stuns me. When the over-caffeinated cosplay Thatcher, Liz Truss imploded the economy, the calls for Boris to come back rang out. But in no time, people forget that Boris trashed standards in public life, lying and cheating throughout his premiership. In the process, he damaged Britain's reputation for pragmatic stability, which lay in ruins on the international stage.

I was in Cambodia during the height of these shenanigans — now that's a country that knows about collective suffering. A taciturn Cambodian official, with a mix of horror and bemusement, asked me, "Is this the way to run a democracy? It doesn't look good." Hard not to agree.

Let's be clear, Boris went because he's untrustworthy, while market forces removed Liz, and by appointment, Rishi replaced her. So is something missing from all this? Oh yes, the electorate! But at least a tortoise managed to register as a Tory party member and get a vote— all hail democracy.

Thankfully, the country rallied to display commendable dignity around the Queen's death. The British responded by doing their best: they formed an orderly line, paid their respects, and woe betides anyone who jumped that queue. That flawless funeral procession, the solemn music, and the echo of gun salutes entwined with the people's measured grief affirmed there is still gravitas in ailing Albion.

Throughout much of the year, British politicians sought to blame all their troubles on mad Vlad. And, for sure, Putin's attack on Ukrainian was the defining international event of the year. Pundits, including me, thrashed the issue to death, so all I'll say is that it will end with negotiations. All wars do.

By any reckoning, the man of the match is Zelensky. He's held his country together, blindsiding Putin on the military and propaganda fronts. I reckon leadership books will trumpet his fortitude, personal characteristics and methods in later years.

Suppose you want to understand how Putin came to power. In that case, you can do no better than watch Trauma Zone. This mesmerising documentary by Adam Curtis captures the fall of the Soviet Union, with rushed attempts to impose democracy and a capitalist economy.

But unfortunately, this effort, led by well-meaning but deeply misguided American experts, failed. In no time, the faltering economy collapsed along with faith in democracy, giving rise to the oligarchs. From this abyss arises Putin, with Curtis concluding this all paved the way for the current predicament.

Then, Curtis took me unwittingly into a rabbit hole studying why societies and civilisations fail. Political scientists, working with mathematical models, have come close to identifying most of the factors associated with a coming collapse. Yet, the precise timing remains challenging to catch.

Rampant inflation, political stagnation and the transfer of capital to the few all contribute to the process. Also, most civilisations only keep power for about 250 years before waning. Recognise anywhere?

Still, let's acknowledge that Putin has done us a huge favour. He's exposed the eco-zealot's silly arguments that we can quickly de-carbonise the economy and live happily ever after on unicorn milk in a windmill. In a troubled world with unresolved issues, chasing such fantasies is indulgent. Even Greta Iceberg, as she grows up and her irrational teenage brain quietens, has awoken to the fact that all her ideas don't hold up.

Anyway, I suspect that the war will drag on for some time. After all, the weapons manufacturers are profiting, so their lobbyists will be busy. Then be ready to watch which companies grab the lion's share of reconstruction contracts.

Of course, Covid continued to impact life with disruptions to supply chains. Plus, China isolating itself didn't help matters. President Xi, having cemented his position at the 20th National Congress in October, almost immediately faced a demonstration of the limitations of power as the people’s patience reached its limits over Covid restrictions. Events again.

Responding with a quick pivot that confounded his critics — who envisaged a crackdown — he relaxed the Covid rules. Yet, this approach is not without risks. The coming weeks and months will reveal the impact. Still, let's also acknowledge that Zero Covid weakened the Chinese economy and has done nothing for the falling birth rates.

Meanwhile, on the geopolitical front, the relentless shift of the global economy eastward towards China, India and Asia continues. As part of this process, many countries in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, have concluded deals with China. Without a doubt, the moves by Saudi Arabia are a clear rebuke aimed at Washington, designed to remind Biden that Saudi oil policy does not come from the U.S.

Likewise, India is asserting itself by demonstrating strategic autonomy. One week they meet the U.S. at the Quad and China the next at the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation. At the same time, Delhi seeks to work around Western sanctions to buy oil from Russia and keep friends in all camps.

This eastward shift is all part of a more significant long-term transformation that works across all societies. For example, we know from anthropologists that urban centres expand the collective brain by bringing together people with ideas and technology. The industrial revolution took off for that very reason.

Look at a map today, and the vast conurbations are in the East; the greater bay area next to Hong Kong is a prime example. These engines of progress confer economic benefits and, eventually, political clout.

The year in Hong Kong saw a sorry parade of young people passing through our courts, accounting for their actions in the 2019/20 troubles. Following the cases, I see a rote line of defence has evolved. The accused is always profoundly sorry. Letters and testimony from family, friends and teachers give weight to claims that smashing MTR stations, firebombing, and beating innocent bystanders is out of character. I suppose this is all true because that's the nature of riots; ordinary folks get carried away.

The offenders can expect a three to four-years jail sentence on a guilty plea: after less than two years, most will be free, subject to good behaviour. Yet, reintegration into the community will need attention in the coming years to avoid creating a disgruntled underclass.

According to police figures, there were 10,279 arrests for rioting, unlawful assembly, wounding, assaults, arson, criminal damage, assaults on police and possession of offensive weapons. To date, 2,915 have gone through judicial proceedings including 1,391 crime convictions and a variety of community orders.

Some defendants are walking away from court proven innocent, which lays bare the lie of a compromised Hong Kong judicial system. Far from it. Canadian Beverley McLachlin, who joined the Hong Kong Court of Final Appeal in 2018, said, "The Court is completely independent, functioning in the way I was used to in Canada". She added, "There's no government influence, and if there were, I wouldn't be there". These words will no doubt enrage those activists, many overseas, who seek to de-legitimise the judiciary.

After that navel-gazing, my eyes move skyward. My next unlikely port of call is a stunning development. Astronomers using the Event Horizon Telescope managed to take a picture of Sagittarius A*, the supermassive black hole at the centre of our galaxy. Sagittarius A* sits 27,000 light years away.

With over four million solar masses as its estimated weight, Sagittarius A* is enormous. But don't worry and forget what Hollywood tells you; black holes don't consume galaxies. Instead, they fade and burp themselves out of existence like politicians.

Anyway, the sun burns out long before then, and our galaxy collides with the Andromeda galaxy, with stuff flying off in all directions. Events again.

To finish the science year, researchers announced that they'd achieved sustainable nuclear fusion with the promise of cheap, clean, limitless energy. Well, that's what the headlines had me believe (again).

Then Kim Budil, director of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, said, "With concerted effort and investment, a few decades of research on the underlying technologies could put us in a position to build a power plant." As always, nuclear fusion is thirty years away.

So, after that rather eclectic wander through 2022, I wish you Merry Jingle Bells - may your god be with you and good health. Then, let's see what events 2023 brings.

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15/12/2022 0 Comments

The Twitter Files - Smoke & Mirrors

"Musk is giving us an insight into a nexus between the state and the social media companies that reveal manipulation of what we, the public, can see."

As many folks will be aware by now, the so-called Twitter Files expose over-zealous censorship and truth twisting within the Twitter bureaucracy. The files, in the form of email copies, continue to drop, with a complete determination of their significance awaited. So far, the revelations have focused on the Hunter Biden laptop saga, although there are signs of much more intriguing stuff to come.

For starters, I'm not on Twitter. I was there for a short time a few years back. Still, I soon realised that the format and general milieu were not a place for constructive dialogue. In many ways, Twitter is the epitome of what has gone wrong with debate and rational argument.

And yet, I acknowledge the profound importance of the channel, its political impact, and the reach of Twitter's coverage. In effect, Twitter has become the worldwide public square without the moderating influence of face-to-face contact, with the possibility of getting punched for your comments.

What I find interesting about the stuff we've seen so far is the collaboration between law enforcement agencies, retired spooks and an ostensibly private Twitter platform to 'gate-keep' what gets a thorough public airing. Twitter exercises power to kill stories or push them into the background. But, of course, we used to call that censorship.

As I've discussed, the Hunter Biden saga illustrates the point well. We now know the laptop story is accurate and that Twitter, working with other social media outlets, sought to suppress it in the lead-up to the U.S. presidential election in 2020.

We also know that former spooks led a disinformation effort to blame the Russians for the laptop story. A letter co-authored and signed by 50 former agents propagated this falsehood. But, we've yet to hear from the signatories of the letter accounting for their actions. Nor does the MSM appear interested in holding them to account. Odd that.

Interestingly, when Musk took over Twitter, he found former spooks working in the building. Moreover, Twitter granted Government agencies backdoor channels that allowed them to request that matters be withheld or played down. The emails reveal this process and the disquiet amongst Twitter staff.

Republicans and Democrats enjoyed similar rights of access to seek the suppression of stories. Yet, with Twitter staff having a 95% democratic party profile, their focus appears more aligned to support that side.

Much of the MSM is downplaying the information from the Twitter files. A few are active in clouding its significance, suggesting that Musk is attacking free speech. How you get this assessment involves an inversion of the cathartic powers of cleansing sunlight on a scandal. You know, the sort of thing journalists usually demand.

MSM outlets claim there is no smoking gun; we knew about these practices before, or there is nothing to see here. I beg to differ. Musk is giving us an insight into a nexus between the state and the social media companies that reveal manipulation of what we, the public, can see.

I guess most of us knew this was happening. Nonetheless, it’s gratifying to get tangible evidence.

Commentators have long suggested that social media companies operate as semi-autonomous digital principalities. What is emerging is that a traditional sovereign power exerted influence within social media to control the output. Musk, having captured the hypothetical Twitter principality, has flung open the doors and invited us to look. This move has unsettled the traditional state actors, and the reaction in the MSM suggests they don't like it either.

And how this sits with the first amendment right to free speech is intriguing. Certainly, to stop incitement and crimes, and on national security grounds, all governments have the right, and indeed an obligation, to intercede. But then the discussion switches to where the line rests.

So how this saga plays out, we will see, but by the looks of it, things could get very interesting indeed.

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