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Walter's Blog

"But how can you live and have no story to tell?" Fyodor Dostoevsky

Reflections on recent events, plus the occasional fact free rant unfiltered by rational argument.

"If you want to read a blog to get a sense of what is going on in Hong Kong these days or a blog that would tell you what life was like living in colonial Hong Kong, this blog, WALTER'S BLOG, fits the bill." Hong Kong Blog Review

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30/5/2017 0 Comments

20 Years down the line.

The 20th anniversary of Hong Kong's return to Chinese sovereignty is approaching. It's natural to now review the past two decades. Of course, that process will involve the compulsory comparisons to the colonial era. I don't find such comparisons always useful. You are not comparing like with like. Many things have changed. Hong Kong has evolved, whilst China continues on its spectacular transformation. Thus, it's not logical to make direct comparisons. Nor is it helpful to the evolving debate on Hong Kong's future. What happened, happened.

In any discussion on Hong Kong’s current standing its easy to fall into one of the polarised camps. The so-called pro-democratic politicians will say Hong Kong is a mess. Everything is negative, freedoms are gone and Hong Kong has a bleak future. The pro-government types will paint a rosy picture. Hong Kong is booming, freedoms are assured. Whilst, the future is all brightness and opportunity. All things considered, the truth is somewhere between these two positions.

In the past 20 years, China has emerged onto the world stage. A big hitter with economic clout. It has growing military muscle and is not ashamed to make its presence felt. Driving this is a collective memory of China's humiliation by Japan and the West. The Communist Party harnessed that nationalism to get cohesion across the Chinese race. In the process, it has pulled millions out of poverty. Such an achievement has had its costs. Environmental damage, upheavals and pogroms scarred the process. Nonetheless, China's achievements over the past decades cannot be dismissed nor downplayed. History is unlikely to witness again such a relentless enhancement in living standards. Plus, executed over such a short period.

Hong Kong played a part in that process. At first, Hong Kong was China’s window to the world. Then, a source of expertise, financial acumen and hard cash. Hong Kong is also pivotal to the process of restoring national pride. Hong Kong's return to China’s sovereignty was an unequivocal signal. Here was a nation set on course of reunification. Meanwhile, sitting off China’s south-east coast is the big prize … Taiwan. That's proving an altogether different challenge.

So, as far as I’m concerned, the fate of Hong Kong is seen in the context of China's history. Layered on top of that are international power plays and the shifting of the balance of power between nations.

Over the next month, I’ll seek to comment and review how matters are progressing. By its nature, my opinionated analysis won't gain favour with all. I sought to break my commentary into broad areas, such as the economy, crime and education. In reality, all these areas intersect. The shambles in the education system is because of policies flip-flopping. Likewise, economic innovation has stalled due to the stalemate in politics. Thus, each area interacts with the next. It’s a complex matrix of influence that I’ll seek to unravel.

On the wider world stage. China now stands in a position of prominence. Its economic wallop undisputed, whilst on the military front, its power is growing. Beijing has emerged as a confident defender of its territory, status and people. Assertive at times, it will no longer will sit back if its interests are threatened. Some naive politicians in Hong Kong have failed to recognise or understand this. To their shame they have overplayed a weak hand, inviting Beijing to take a suspicious view of Hong Kong.

With the distractions of Brexit and the diminished US under Trump, China's political space has expanded. It has more room for its agenda. Moreover, China is less likely to listen to criticism from these nations. The US needs China to deal with North Korea and the UK needs China for trade. So, bleating about events in Hong Kong will fade.

Even now the fall-out from their ill-conceived Occupy movement is being felt. The pro-democrats have done more damage to Hong Kong's progress than any other group. They have vetoed progress towards democracy, stalled projects, whilst engaging in petty squabbles.

Having lived through 17-years of the colonial era and 20-years of Chinese rule, I'm well placed to observe events. So, let's see how this develops.

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27/5/2017 0 Comments

Are we alone?

Arrival - they're here!

Probably not. With 100 billion planets in the known Universe, it’s likely that life exists out there. The conditions needed for carbon based organic life are well known. Moreover, these conditions are not unique to Earth. So, how do we meet up with our fellow life-forms?

There are a few factors that make contact a challenge. The first is proximity, in both time and distance. Even if alien life coincides with us in time, the vastness of space makes linking up improbable. The distances involved are staggering. Communication by current known channels has a limit called the 'speed of light'. Thus, if we did hook up, a delayed conversation would unfold over centuries. If the extraterrestrials advanced to a level that allowed them to reach us, another question arises. Would we even recognise them as a life-form? A sentient ball of gas may go unnoticed. It's not something within our experience. Then, you’ve got the whole issue of communication; interpreting and understanding them. There are no easy answers.

We are currently looking for other life-forms using our human-based technology. It's the only option we've got. Whether this is the right way to search is a mute point. Even so, our adoption of maths as the universal language is logical. Prime numbers present a useful signal because nature doesn't manifest them. In this regard, the movie 'Contact' was spot on.

If we did make contact, what would be the consequences? Governments have been preparing for that eventuality since the 1950s. The U.S. military has a seven steps procedure. You can assume that extraterrestrials will adopt something similar. The first step is covert observations from a distance. Which raises the question are we being watched now?

The second step is covert visitation. This is observation up close, taking an assessment of technological abilities. The key to this part of the process is assessing the level of hostility likely to be encountered. Weapons systems would be of prime interest. Again, you’d want to know if things get nasty what can the other side do.

Moving forward with the third step, covert or open contact is made… close encounters of the third kind. After this, we go through various stages of introduction and communication.

In all this there are tremendous risks for our civilisation. The continued existence of mankind is in jeopardy. A good part of humanity will exhibit shock, others will express elation. A third group will accept it in their stride. Of course, emotions will range across that whole spectrum. But let's recognise we’ve been talking about it for decades. Movies and TV shows have conditioned us to the possibility, so I’m not expecting a complete melt-down.

On top of that emotional outburst, the world's religions will need to reconsider their position. Their underpinning tenets are no longer sustainable. The Gods will see their status eroded, although no doubt the blind faithful will hang on to their dogma. Religions have an uncanny ability to perform mental gymnastics in the face of facts. Able to twist their doctrine to meet new circumstances. Alien contact will cause them some soul searching. Yet, don’t expect them to concede.

A danger comes in the reaction of institutions that feel their status is under threat. For example, the Catholic Church. Seeing its teaching laid to waste, it will be fearful for its future. Then angry. It may mobilise its influence to disrupt acceptance of our true position in the Cosmos. History tells us it is capable of such behaviour. Look at the treatment of Servetus and Galileo. One burned at the stake, the other locked up for life to prevent the spread of scientific facts.

That first contact will have a profound impact on our modern infrastructure. Be ready for the Internet and IT systems to fail. Overwhelmed by an unmanageable surge in usage, it will falter. We’ll be exchanging information, expressing opinions on a scale never seen before. Even minor emergencies, such as plane crashes, can produce similar effects. Moreover, the blackout will fuel fears and apprehension that we are under attack. Demands to destroy the aliens can be expected.

Contact brings other risks. The exchange of diseases is possible. Each side will need to take precautions to protect itself. Assuming the aliens are an organic life-form, all aspects of life on Earth are at risk.

The next troubling aspect, is communication between us and the alien. This takes us into a whole realm of dilemmas. Communication is a complex, nuanced process. Variations in intellectual abilities and comprehension are relevant. Can we even recognise the form of communication? As mentioned above, maths provides a good starting point.

Finally, the ultimate question must be … do they come in peace? Stephen Hawking takes the negative position. He draws parallels with the Europeans first landings in North and South America. That didn't end well for the natives. Not only did diseases have an impact, plundering of resources took place. Those that resisted were wiped out with their culture.

Others take a different view. They posit that advanced technological cultures emerge once cooperation and peaceful coexistence exists. Such a view holds that the advanced nature of the aliens culture equates to their benign nature. That’s assuming that their culture has such qualities as compassion and empathy. What is more, they have an understanding of its application to us.

Before answering that final question, let us contemplate why aliens would come to Earth. The ability to cross vast distances of space, survive the journey to arrive at Earth suggests a life-form far advanced on us. If these extraterrestrials are so clever then why bother with our unremarkable planet? Earth has no unique resources. There is nothing of value here the alien cannot produce or source elsewhere. Yes, we may be of some esoteric interest to an alien academic writing his doctorate. Beyond that, why bother venturing to this distant spiral arm of the Milky Way. You've some 100 billion other planets to pick from. The odds are remote they are coming our way.

In the movie 'Contact' the extraterrestrials have a phased plan of exposure. The protagonist, Ellie Arroway, is put at ease by the extraterrestrial appearing as her father. The venue is a serene tropical beach. She is told they'd be in touch again later. The purpose is to allow humans time to assimilate that first contact. We must deal with a myriad of issues before moving forward. Whether we'd get that sort of lead-in, an incremental introduction, is unknown. Assuming we are dealing with an intelligent extraterrestrial, I’d like to think we would.

Weighing it all up, in my assessment aliens coming here would not be hostile. But, all things considered, we need to have a discussion around how we’d respond. Because if caught off-guard, the consequences for our species could be severe. Beyond that, all we can do is wait for ET to say ‘Hi’ and trust he is congenial chap.

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26/5/2017 0 Comments

Friday Cartoon

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24/5/2017 0 Comments

Manchester - Suffer the Children.

Another terrorist atrocity. This time Manchester, England. A stoic northern English city. It gave us Oasis, Davy Jones of the Monkeys and former Prime Minister David Lloyd-Jones. Home to the mighty Manchester United, home to great seats of learning. Home to innovation and industry. A city with a diverse culture, and not without its problems. Yet, a city that reinvigorated itself in recent decades to gain a certain cogency.

Now it's the site of an evil attack. Targeted by a religious nut job filled with hate. An attack aimed at children and young people enjoying themselves. It’s a cliche I know … an attack on our very culture and way of life. The origins of this attack germinated in the tenets and incantations of religion. On this occasion, it's an Islamic religion. In the past, Christianity bore similar fruit. Campaigns against nonbelievers, wars and whole community destroyed.

We have to recognise that all religions assert their supremacy. They are the chosen ones, the right path. Which in extreme cases leads to the slaughter of those who are opposite. Granted, not all religions are at equal fault. Although, each has the possibility of fostering hatred of those outside the fold.

We must recognise that “religion poisons everything” to quote Christopher Hitchens. Anthropogenic fantasies formed in antiquity morphed into the religions we see today. These twist minds by providing simplistic solutions, the easy fix. Especially if that mind is already traumatised by events. With a morality based on ideas developed centuries ago, you will struggle in the modern world. If you draw upon a world-view formed by ancient illiterates, things will look out of kilter. One would hope that since the enlightenment we'd moved forward. The evidence suggests not.

No one should deny that religion can provide comfort and solace. No humane person would deny a grieving parent or partner that opportunity. Moreover, religious gatherings can lift up the spirits, bounding people and communities. Religion gives propose to some. Yet, I can say the same of the Caravan Club or the Boy Scouts. God, whoever he is, doesn't always have to enter the equation.

If we are to defeat terrorism we need to finally put to bed silly notions of Gods. The associated hubris that surrounds religion distorts the human in us. As sentient beings, we already know right from wrong. We don’t need religious texts ladened with threats to recognise the correct course of action. Likewise, we don’t need to set 'man-against-man' because each holds a different opinion.

Religion is in many ways an easy option. It offers certainty, answers and solutions. The snake oil salesman makes the same claims. We’ve learnt not to buy the snake oil. Standing on the shoulders of Newton, Darwin, Einstein and Dawkins, we can cast aside the fantasies of the past. Embrace a rational humanists approach. Then we will stop blowing up eight-year-old girls attending pop concerts.

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Manchester - Suffer the Children.

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