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Walter's Blog

"But how can you live and have no story to tell?" Fyodor Dostoevsky

Reflections on recent events, plus the occasional fact free rant unfiltered by rational argument.

"If you want to read a blog to get a sense of what is going on in Hong Kong these days or a blog that would tell you what life was like living in colonial Hong Kong, this blog, WALTER'S BLOG, fits the bill." Hong Kong Blog Review

30/4/2020 2 Comments

Well Done, Hong Kong.

1,038 Covid-19 cases and four deaths - Hong Kong is doing something right!

We are all wrestling with the maths of Covid-19. It's the numbers that will drive a return to some form of ordinary life. Although as I've before commented, gathering, analysing and drawing conclusions is problematic.

Although, fortunately, we now have more data that will allow meta-analysis. In turn, this helps us decide which strategies are working and the relative merits of various measures.

I won't cite much data here but have provided links that support the positions I'm taking.

Two things are immediately apparent. First, Hong Kong has done well with only 1,038 confirmed Covid-19 cases (as of 29 April 2020) from a population of 7.5 million, living in very dense housing.

With an average of 130,000 people packed inside each square kilometre, the Mong Kok district is one of the most densely populated places on Earth. Ideal conditions to spread a virus you'd think.

Of those 1,038 cases, only four deaths are Covid-19 related, while four people remain in critical condition. Significantly, we've not recorded a single infection of a medical worker.

So, while not out of the woods yet, the omens are promising. The risk now lies in a second wave or an outbreak as Singapore experienced amongst its migrant workers. So, let's not get too complacent.

My second observation is that there exists no credible evidence that lockdowns stop the spread of the virus. Further, given the adverse economic impact of a lockdown, plus the consequences for people's mental health and general well-being, we must ask serious questions about this approach.

Add to that the overzealous actions of some law enforcement in policing lockdowns. I'm intrigued to see the British police adopting measures that would cause an outcry in Hong Kong. Another example of Western double-standards — I digress.

Hong Kong did not adopt a lockdown — by which I mean people forced to stay at home, most gatherings banned, and many businesses closed. We did the following:-

People wore masks
Hand washing
School closures
Banned large gatherings
Curtailed travel
Temparature checks at point of entry
Quarantining the sick
Contact tracing and quarantining

People in Hong Kong came primed to act because the SARS episode of 2003 left deep scars in the collective memory. Thus, without prompting from officials, we started taking precautions. The government never mandated mask-wearing.

Initially, I was sceptical. I took the view that masks, then in short supply, should be held back for medical staff. Then over time, as evidence of asymptomatic carriers emerged, my attitude changed.

The science is simple to comprehend; any disease spread by droplets is hampered by a mask. Granted, no mask is 100 per cent effective. Still, a study by Hong Kong City University found even two layers of paper towel was 80 per cent as effective as an N95 mask in reducing droplet dispersal.

That extrapolated over a population of millions produces a substantial reduction in the spread.

Likewise, hand washing reduces the opportunity for the virus to move around. The frequent disinfecting of high-traffic surfaces, something that Hong Kong adopted during SARS, came back in force. Lift buttons, handrails and door handles have never been so clean.

Scientists at the University of Arizona placed a benign virus on a door handle; then monitored its movement. Within four hours, the virus was on most surfaces and had reached half the staff. Thus, frequent cleaning works.

Also, research supports the closure of schools as effective against halting a community outbreak. Likewise, any large gathering has the potential to produce a cluster that soon grows.

As an example, on 18 February, hundreds of Christians gathered in Mulhouse, France, for a traditional celebration. This event was mostly in the open; yet, crowds came together to chant and pray. At least one of those present brought Covid-19.

To date, officials traced 2,500 Covid-19 cases back to this event, with 17 of the congregation dead. The virus soon moved out from Mulhouse into Germany, Latin America and Corsica.

From this case and others, we can see that banning large gatherings is crucial to success.

Hong Kong, Sweden and the Netherlands are amongst the places that didn't adopt a lockdown. Each has had varying degrees of success in containing the virus.

Alone this does not prove lockdowns are ineffective because other factors are also relevant. But, we can assert that a lockdown is not a critical ingredient; otherwise, Hong Kong would be overrun with cases.

Hong Kong-based economist Lyman Stone makes a convincing case against 'lockdowns' in this article. In the same vein, the issue gets debated here.

Meanwhile, the hard truth is that places which adopted a lockdown have more unemployed people, their economies are in tatters, and public borrowing about to skyrocket.

Next, comes inflation and all the related consequences. At least Hong Kong has it's massive reserves to fall back on, but for how long?

The picture that is emerging is that Hong Kong's system containment worked. Medical staff had enough protective gear, government departments coordinated, and we rolled out measures as necessary.

The media is speculating that countries led by women are, in the main, handling Covid-19 better. Our Chief Executive, Carrie Lam, is not on that list. While I've been a critic of hers for years, credit is due for overseeing this situation.

Meanwhile, a review by the Deep Knowledge Group puts Hong Kong in the top 10 for health security capabilities. The USA and the UK don't make the top 40; yet, both top the lists for Covid-19 risk rating.

As things stand today, I can only conclude that Hong Kong has handled the Covid-19 outbreak well. Credit is due for that, as we start the process of getting life back on track.

2 Comments

27/4/2020 0 Comments

Tied Together

Cutting through the political rhetoric, China holds only 5 per cent of US debt.

The Frog and Scorpion fable teaches us that vicious people cannot resist hurting others, even if it is not in their interests. This lesson seems to be playing out again today as Covid-19 enters into Cold War II between the US and China.

Meanwhile, Trump is busy distracting to cover-up his inadequate response that killed thousands of US citizens. Along the way, he is stoking fear of Beijing’s economic clout. It could come back to bite him.

With the US economy in a shambles, Trump’s best chance of winning reelection in November is to run against China. Thus, I suspect, he will exploit distrust of China, xenophobia and nationalism at every opportunity. He's got little else on which to hang his election chances. But it's a strategy that is risky.

I doubt he will be talking much about how state-owned Chinese banks funded his projects. One loan for $200M from the Bank of China matures in 2022. Neither will he highlight the Chinese construction companies building his latest projects in the UAE and Indonesia.

Whether Trump received other loans from Chinese banks and investors is unknown, because he refuses to disclose his financial records.

Walter Shaub, former Director of the Office of Government Ethics, which sets standards for conduct in the Executive Branch, wrote "So, who knows who else he owes money? I'll tell you: The lenders who have him in their grip."

Depending on how you do the calculations, either the US or China is the world's largest economy. Using the IMF's 'purchasing power parity' method, China took the lead in 2018, with the EU second and the US third.

These three combined generate 50 per cent of the world GDP. In unadjusted numbers - nominal GDP - the US remains the largest economy. Besides granting bragging rights, the top position is mostly academic.

And, of course, Covid-19 is taking its toll. For example, the US took ten years to create 20 million new jobs. In the last month, 26 million Americans applied for unemployment benefit.

The 2020 US budget deficit will increase after four response bills pile more than $2 trillion onto the national debt. These numbers tell a story that shapes the interaction between the US and Chinese economies. And this brings in the issue of debt and politics.

As of 17th March 2020, the total amount of debt owed by the US federal, state and local governments stood at $23.4 trillion. Of that amount, China holds claim on $1.1 trillion. But, China is second to Japan with $1.2 trillion owed. Strange that US politicians rarely fret about Japanese influence on the economy.

Further, since 2011, China has sought to reduce its level of US debt from a height of $1.3 trillion.

Don't forget that the trade war dampened China's ability to invest in US debt, a situation that will exist for some years to come.

Yet, no matter how you cut it, the two economies come tied together. Should the US Scorpion plunge its stinger into the Chinese frog, both may drown. The Chinese yuan is linked to the US dollar, an arrangement that pivots the economic relationship between the two.

If confidence in the US dollar falls, China also suffers. So be careful those US pensioners who are demanding punishment of China, because that could see your retirement funds drop off.

Cutting through the political rhetoric, China holds only 5 per cent of US debt. That’s not insignificant, but it does not offer the leverage that some think. Why?
Well, because China relies on American markets to sell its goods. With the profits made, China bought up US Treasury stocks.

In turn, this helps inflate the US dollar, making Chinese good cheap to buy with the American consumer benefiting. At the end of this cycle, the average American is better off. In short, China is providing affordable services and only taking pieces of paper in return.

Selling off those pieces of paper would push the dollar down; hurting China's competitiveness by raising the value of the yuan relative to the US dollar. It’s assessed that if China opted to sell, willing buyers would snap up the stocks; thus blunting any punitive impact on the US.

Further, the US-China economic relationship delivers more benefits to the US than is commonly recognised. Recent data shows that US exports to China support around 1.8 million jobs in sectors such as services, agriculture, and capital goods. Although, that relationship does mean jobs transferred from the US to China. It's swings and roundabouts.

As human we find simple ideas very attractive. Politicians like Trump recognises this trait, then exploits its power. Thus, its China's fault that the US economy is doing poorly or that US jobs are going overseas. Unfortunately, matters are far from that simple.

A multitude of linkages including economic, political, treaties and even geography are at play. Understanding this reality can be a time consuming and complex process. Trump's over-simplistic finger-pointing distracts from that more complicated truth.

In reality, the US-China economies rely on each other. A decrease in China's growth can hurt the world economy and slow down global economic growth. The effects would hit the US.

Thus, people who call for a reckoning with China must understand the consequential blowback. No amount of political posturing or rallying cries will change that.

0 Comments

21/4/2020 1 Comment

Bring on the Clowns

"Most of you spent less time in school than Greta Thunberg!"

Welcome, then, to a world in which celebrities feel it's fine to spread batshit crazy ideas without bothering to consider the facts.

Ricky Gervais, the anti-celebrity celeb, summed up the luvvies at the 2020 Golden Globes.

"So if you do win an award tonight, don't use it as a platform to make a political speech. You're in no position to lecture the public about anything. You know nothing about the real world. Most of you spent less time in school than Greta Thunberg."

That hasn't stopped the uneducated and unqualified celebrities from spreading Covid-19 conspiracies. Bored in their mansions, and pining for attention, a number have jumped on the 'it's 5G that did it' bandwagon.

First up is Amanda Holden, an English media personality of undetermined ability. Amanda built a career from looking pretty, while her education consists of attending a drama school in Peckham.

Does that qualify her to comment on radiation, the science of epidemiology and health outcomes from viruses? She thinks it does. At least, following widespread scorn, she had the good grace to remove her tweets linking the Covid-19 to 5G.

Woody Harrelson hasn't yet seen the light. Does his judgment come clouded by the vast amounts of cannabis he consumes or is he is channelling his most famous role — the dumb barmen in Cheers? Hard to say.

Either way, Woody that video you posted of Chinese people pulling down a 5G transmitter was a surveillance camera in Hong Kong. The incident took place in Kowloon Bay in 2019, well before the Covid-19 emerged.

Not deterred, Woody opined "5G radiation is exacerbating the contagion spread and making it more lethal." Really? Exactly how is that mechanism working Woody? I'd like to hear the science that supports these assertions you shared with two million Instagram followers.

Perhaps Woody should lay off the 'product' to clear his head.

Boxer Amir Khan, we can let off the hook. After all, the poor chap has taken many blows to the head, plus he's an ardent follower of the clown-prince of conspiracies, David Icke. Khan reposted claims from Icke that the virus is there to test 5G's impact.

Meanwhile, Dancing On Ice judge Jason Gardiner posted several tweets last week that encouraged followers to sign a petition halting the roll-out of 5G. Joining in are several rappers — not usually on my radar — with a chap called Wiz Khalifa with over 36 million followers.

A lady rapper called M.I.A. claims the coronavirus is a ploy to mass-vaccinate the world's population and implant us with a tracking chip linked to 5G. M.I.A tweeted she chooses death over the chip. Well, that's clear then.

John Cusack, another Hollywood celeb, tweeted to his 1.6 million followers. "5 — G wil [sic] be proven to be very very bad for people's health."

He later deleted the tweet, but not before calling those who disagreed with him "just DUMB and fucking sheep". Nice. John is no stranger to the dangers of tweeting.

In 2019, he tweeted anti-semitic images. When challenged he first claimed a bot created the message, then defended it, then apologised and finally removed it. John is a class act.

These conspiracy theories are typically the output of a marginalised few on Reddit and 4chan forums. Yet crazy ideas gain traction with a broader audience when celebs peddle this nonsense.

Willfully spreading dangerous myths that are untrue to gullible followers is a recipe for mayhem. Moreover, it legitimises attack on infrastructure and other criminal acts.

We know that celebrities thrive on attention. And in these difficult times, alone in their mansions, they feel sad. But for now, do us all a favour — sit down and drink a large cup of 'shut the fuck up'.

Lastly, I'd rather put my trust in the prognostications of the scientists than in some confused luvvie.

1 Comment

19/4/2020 2 Comments

Lost Youth

"The Pan Dems, and others, need to reflect on their role in drawing these gullible kids to the streets."

Having so far contained the Covid-19 virus outbreak, Hong Kong is not out of the woods. Covid-19 may come back, plus our economy is ailing, and further violent social unrest is possible.

As the sudden surge of Covid-19 cases in Singapore demonstrated, we need constant vigilance, and we can't allow any chance for a spread. In Singapore, they had a migrant worker blind-spot that the virus exported ruthlessly; Hong Kong should learn from that lesson.

But, when the virus precautions ease here, the question everyone is asking "Will the violent protests be back?" Tempered by a weak economy and ongoing court cases, the protest movement's future is debatable.

Moreover, with supporters in the West distracted, Hong Kong could fade from their agenda. Or, more likely, we’ll become a pawn in the broader game between China and the USA.

Indeed, Trump is looking at all means to distract attention from his shambolic Covid-19 response. Initially, he pronounced Covid-19 was “fake-news … another attempt to discredit me.”

Then as the death's mounted, he switched tack although he's never demonstrated genuine leadership with a comprehensive strategy.

He now plays a relentless blame-game; first China, then WHO, then state governors, all along with the media. Meanwhile, he accepts no responsibility.

In his attempts to distract, he could see the protests in Hong Kong as a useful tool with which to blacken Beijing further. Until now he's avoided that, although he's so erratic anything is possible.

Plus, with China emerging from Covid-19 quicker than others, firing up its economy, it’s certain to rile Trump. If he can't get Covid-19 under control, and with increasing unemployment, based on his past performance, he will lash out more.

I have no doubt the protesters will return, with or without overseas support. Although, it's uncertain what scale and character the demonstrations will take.

With job losses mounting across many sectors, is it right to assume people focus on economic issues? I'm not sure. With elections for LegCo in September, the omens are not favourable.

Last week, during my wandering through the hills, I found a group of six college students heading up the mountain towards Windy Gap in search of Repulse Bay.

I pointed out there were heading in the wrong direction, then led them back down to the Tai Tam Dam to connect with the correct path. Our encounter had all the hallmarks of an allegory.

We struck up a conversation heading downhill. To cut a long story short, I revealed my past, which caused some unease, as they candidly admitted an active part in the 2019 protests. A discussion followed.

One student described the experience of the protests as 'unsettling' because those around him escalated to violence without delay. He's now withdrawn from on-street activities because he feels it's too risky. Fearing arrest, he had sleepless nights.

This group have a melancholy air. One girl remained surly throughout, making it clear she's not going to talk to me.

The others offered criticism of many parties and players.

Of course, the government and Police took a fair share of bile. To my surprise, the Pan Dem politicians drew contempt for providing no leadership. "Why didn't Anson Chan intervene?" Great question.

The students didn't realise that Martyr Lee sat in Beijing, negotiating the Basic Law, a fact that caused some reflection. I had to laugh when they dismissed Joshua Wong, the darling of the US politicians, as self-serving. Thus, we agreed on something.

I raised the issue of petrol bombing police quarters and attempts to target the children of police officers. That drew a silence. One ventured "We weren't there, did it happen? Much false news?” Who does that sound like?

I mentioned the 2014 democracy proposals, rejected by the Pan Dems; this pivotal moment is often forgotten. It signaled a change, that has led us all on the wrong path seeking a destination that cannot be reached from here.

While far from perfect, the proposals moved in the right direction. Again, this drew blank faces from the students. Clearly, the context and meaning is lost in the whirl of social media hubris.

One lad asserted he'd go back to the streets. Although, if the protests become violent, he'll seek to leave. That's wise.

After all, the Police are looking increasingly proficient in containing the extreme elements under the robust leadership of Commissioner Chris Tang. He displays none of the hesitance of his supine predecessor.

Rapid interventions, flexible tactics and new 'less-than-lethal' weapons give commanders options that keep violent protesters at bay. In addition, having gone through several riots, officers are well-schooled and confident in their skills.

Moreover, opposition attempts to demonise officers with allegations of 'brutality' and attacks of police homes are proving counter-productive. By all accounts, morale is high.

Media reports of a surge in police resignations are over-blown. Likewise, those that left are welcome departures. I'm told most lacked the physical stamina for the job or proved 'wobbly' when confronted by the mob. Their resignations removes a burden.

With hundreds of hard-core protesters fled to Taiwan, the evidence suggests they are struggling with the decisions they made. The Pan Dems, and others need to reflect on their role in drawing these gullible kids to the streets.

My encounter with these young people, all born after 1997, reminded me we live in an age of amnesia. People forget that Anson Chan, Martyr Lee and many Pan Dems sat at the table in Beijing to parlay Hong Kong's future.

Then the 1989 Tiananmen killings and the misguided efforts of Chris Patten derailed progress towards more democracy.

Even after that, Anson Chan worked with tireless fervor to sell the Joint Declaration to the people of Hong Kong, standing centre stage at the handover.

For me, when a full accounting is made, all sides have debits — especially the Pan Dems for rejecting democracy proposals in 2014.

At least I left the students on the right track to Repulse Bay. I hope they made it.

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