Walter's Blog |
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Reflections on recent events, plus the occasional fact
free rant unfiltered by rational argument. |
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27/7/2021 1 Comment Money Talks "China and the U.S. are shipping goods to each other at the fastest pace in years" Sometimes you have to look behind the clickbait headlines to understand what's going on. So while U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman had a face like a scalded cat during her recent Beijing encounter, in truth, the U.S. and China are joined at the hip and need to cooperate.
Sherman was on the receiving end of a tongue lashing from Chinese diplomats in full wolf warrior mode. That’s something you wouldn’t have seen five years ago, affirming China’s growing confidence, or maybe that they understand the reality of world trade. Because, when you cut through the posturing on both sides, the data tells a story. China and the U.S. are shipping goods to each other at the fastest pace in years. It looks like the tariff war and pandemic never happened. Consider this: over half of the shipping going through the Port of Los Angeles is heading to Mainland China or Hong Kong. A shipping bottleneck is developing owing to the fact the port can’t handle the rising throughput. And all this congestion is happening before the pre-Christmas rush kicks in. Somebody better tell America's kids that Santa may not get through this year. The graph above, which draws on data from the Chinese authorities, tells a story of vibrant two-way trade albeit with an imbalance. As U.S. consumers continue to shop, Chinese factories are back in action pumping out products. Then when you account for the U.S. trade surplus in financial services, which it gains through the US$, that deficit in goods looks less troublesome. (More details are here in 'The Big Game') The only conclusion to draw is that both sides have learned to live with punishing tariffs, a fraught political situation, while talk of decoupling is laughable. We know that the U.S. and China use trade as a weapon in their wider geopolitical game. But, what does it say when the U.S. benefits from Chinese actions taken against Australia? As this report states, the U.S. stepped-in to fill the gap in coal supplies to China with Australian coal blocked. And I thought the U.S. and Australia stood together. Perhaps not when there is money to be made and trade to be done.
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23/7/2021 1 Comment Charge Of The Granny Brigade "They'll ignore government advice, the sage words of scientists and hard data, but the possibility of a free iPhone will get them moving." The Hong Kong public has finally woken up to the need for vaccinations. A surge in jabs means we could hit 70% coverage by September. Maybe they've seen the data from the U.S., where 99% of Covid deaths are unvaccinated.
I doubt it. More likely, the incentives offered by various lucky draws are the motivation. An apartment, a new Mercedes Benz, free flights, iPhones, gold, frankincense and myrrh are all on offer. I applaud these private sector lotteries, but what does it say about Hong Kong people's mentality? Of course, they'll ignore government advice, the sage words of scientists and hard data, but the possibility of a free iPhone will get them moving. None of this should come as a surprise, given the long queues every time McDonald’s offers a free piece of shitty plastic with a burger. Back in the day, I policed those lines. And the McDonald’s cohort, while eager, couldn't match an army of pensioners scrambling for free rice distributed by local charities. Every hardened police officers stomach knotted in anxiety when 'Rice distribution crowd control' appeared on the duty list. But, let's be clear. None of the old folks are hungry nor anywhere near what could be considered destitute. Yet, that didn't stop decades of imprinting — when free food is on offer, you dash in. The years of famine in China left a deep scar; thus, it often took a platoon of the Police Tactical Unit to hold back the charging geriatrics. I reckon dealing with a football crowd was easier. After all, you can't use pepper spray to hold back a marauding mob of rampant grannies. The optics are unfavourable. A line of barriers, batching the crowd, and some humour usually did the trick. A gregarious Gwailo cop, using broken Cantonese, to entertain the crowd also helped. Thinking back, the smell of those events lingers — a mix of musty moth-balls, burning joss sticks, with a hint of Pak Fah Yeow — all mixed in that signature Hong Kong confection. Somebody should bottle and market it — Perfume de Sham Shui Po! For the discerning. 20/7/2021 1 Comment Gesture Diplomacy "When the U.S. Congress banned China from collaborating on the International Space Station, what happened? Within ten years, China had its own Space Station." In summer 1970, when the parents next door banned my brothers and me from playing British Bulldog in their garden because we were too rough, we took the game to the street. Soon more kids joined in; we had extra space, a fantastic time and went to bed exhausted. Sometimes, actions have unintended consequences.
Thus as the U.S. announced another round of sanctions against officials here over the perceived erosion of freedoms, I'm wondering have they thought this through? This move comes one year after the implementation of the National Security Law. And while you can argue the merits of the NSL, what is certain is the law brought a quick end to the rioting. And that is not to suggest that the NSL vanquished the extremists. On the contrary, some have transitioned to terrorist activity, with bomb plots and lone-wolf attacks on police. As a result, the police remain on alert with high levels of vigilance. Along with the sanctions came a warning about doing business in Hong Kong. That fell on stony ground given Hong Kong's stout economy that companies ignore at their peril. But the question needs asking, do sanctions work or are these moves counterproductive? When China launched the NSL, the U.S. responded with immediate measures against Hong Kong officials and individual police officers. Yet, there is no evidence of any impact. Indeed, some people see sanctions as affirmation that the U.S. sought regime change here and felt vindicated to be named. Even policymakers view sanctions as blunt instruments, more manifestations of frustration than a serious attempt to resolve differences. Moreover, when dealing with a strong opponent like China, sanctions can give rise to the very thing you intended to avoid. When the U.S. Congress banned China from collaborating on the International Space Station, what happened? Within ten years, China had its own Space Station. In responding to the perceived threat, the U.S. spurred the Chinese on, thereby bypassing the West in the process. The same is happening on a broad front; in computing, agriculture and infrastructure development. Former U.S. Consul General to Hong Kong, Kurt Tong, makes a case that sanctions and other economic prohibitions aren't working. Instead, capital flows into Hong Kong remain robust because the sheer size of the China market means banks and companies must engage. So while U.S. Neocons cling to sanctions, he concludes the U.S. and Western nations have few options to influence China because the success of Hong Kong remains essential for the global economy. Oddly, having argued that sanctions don't work, he says that the U.S. should continue to apply them against individuals. He fears stopping sanctions will 'sends the wrong signal'. And with that, he sums up how naive, disjointed and ineffective is the U.S. approach. It's all about gestures because business trumps everything. And the Chinese, who are pragmatic above all else, know this. Of course, you could argue that America's greatest asset for contesting China is its military. But I'd assert it's the U.S. dollar. Of all global trade transactions, some 41 per cent occurs in U.S. dollars. Whereas the RMB only makes up one per cent. This fact affords America leverage over the World's economy while protecting U.S. citizens by allowing them to access cheap goods. In reality, the American people are paying for Chinese goods with 'paper money' printed to keep the U.S. financial system afloat. Plus, with well over 90 per cent of global financial transactions in U.S. dollars, the Americans have an advantage. Hence the U.S. has a trade surplus in services and a deficit in goods with China. Should the RMB ever gain traction in the World's financial system, the U.S. would be in serious trouble. While China is exploring options that rival the dominant US-dollar mechanism, including blockchain, these look some way off. But if the U.S. did opt to weaponise the dollar then China would likely respond with its own system. These days China no longer shrugs off sanctions to do nothing. Instead, it is willing to hit back. Confident in the power offered by its vast market, it can deny access that hits hard. Ask the Australian wine industry, which suffered a 96% drop in exports to China, its best costumer. Ask Nike how sales are going in China; down 59% after the company became embroiled in the cotton saga. Yet, as the American Chamber of Commerce made clear, the appeal of Hong Kong remains undiminished. Excellent infrastructure, robust rule of law, safe streets and access to the Mainland all work in Hong Kong's favour. As proof, AmCham invested in a new site in Central to foster business. Equally, The Economist rated Hong Kong top of the league for 'normalcy' during Covid, while inward foreign investment is the world's third highest. At the same time, property prices continue to rise, as unemployment moves below five percent. Say no more. 18/7/2021 1 Comment The Dirty Dozen "These anti-vaccine activists operate on Facebook, YouTube, Instagram and Twitter, reaching more than 59 million followers." Research from the U.S. claims that 12 people are responsible for most of the misinformation spread about Covid-19 vaccines. A report by The Center for Countering Digital Hate documents how this dirty dozen, some with medical qualifications, fostered suspicions and outright rejection of vaccines. In the process, they may have stalled efforts to counter Covid-19 by feeding on the public's gullibility.
This week, President Biden sought to blame the social media companies "They're killing people. The only pandemic we have is among the unvaccinated." Meanwhile, his spokeswomen claimed China and Russia are responsible for some of the misinformation. Given that it's a game all governments play, it's safe to say they are all at it, including the U.S. The CCDH report concludes the 12 named individuals — one a Kennedy -- harnessed existing fears within communities, including along racial lines. Hence, it's argued that Black, Latino, and Native Americans suffer disproportionately high rates of Covid-19. Further, the report highlights the profound impact when people take most of their information, unverified, from social media. After the events of 2019, this comes as no surprise to us in Hong Kong. Outright lies propagated by a few, entered the public mindset as the gospel truth; death trains and mass rapes are examples. These anti-vaccine activists operate on Facebook, YouTube, Instagram and Twitter, reaching more than 59 million followers. When you then extrapolate the trickle effects into the wider community, the footprint is global. And with plenty of conspiracy theorists and Karens out there, the appeal of the dirty dozen is clear. Here's how it works. On 19 March 2020, the website Biohackinfo.com falsely claimed that Bill Gates planned to use a Covid-19 vaccine to monitor people through an injected quantum-dot spy software. Two days later, traffic started flowing to a YouTube video on the idea. Soon it hit two million views. Then Roger Stone — a former adviser to U.S. President Donald Trump — discussed the theory on a radio show, adding that he'd never trust a coronavirus vaccine that Gates had funded. The New York Post covered the interview but didn't debunk the notion. Then that article was liked, shared or commented on by over one million people on Facebook. That's better performance than most mainstream media news stories. How you rein-in this activity to decide what is legitimate comment and falsehood, is fraught with challenges. With its much-vaunted First Amendment, the U.S. will struggle to tackle this issue. The same applies elsewhere. Moreover, given the deep-seated mistrust of governments in some sectors, any effort to 'police' the Internet may drive the lunatic fringe deeper underground. So, good luck with that. We're at the point where these influencers have persuaded many not to get a free, life-saving vaccine, and those people are dying at a rate of 99-to-1 compared to the vaccinated. You could argue that this is Darwinism at work, with the dirty dozen are killing their base. 14/7/2021 2 Comments Let Rip "The people have unlocked themselves and marked the occasion by inserting flares up their bottoms" Oh boy, this is going to be interesting to watch. Boris Johnson is intent on relaxing England's Covid restrictions on 19 July. While around 68 per cent of the British adult population has received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, and just over half are now fully vaccinated, the data on new cases is less encouraging. These surged with 221,000 people testing positive in the UK in the week to 11 July.
Am I comfortable with this approach? Not really, because the pandemic reminds us that we are all connected, and the unfolding crisis in one country can impact every country. That's especially so when Hong Kong and the UK have such close contacts. Although sitting 6,000 miles away, at least we will have time to put the barriers up if it all goes awry. But, wait a minute, aren't direct flights from the UK already banned? Yes, but we still have rare cases arriving here by around-the-houses routes. In fairness, Boris did ask that people take personal responsibility and wear masks when appropriate. Then again, why bother with any restrictions? The footage this weekend of England fans running amok in London while the boys and girls in blue skulked away suggest it's all rather academic. The people have unlocked themselves and marked the occasion by inserting flares up their bottoms. Forget all the talk of football as the beautiful game — there is nothing appealing in a lardy lad with a firework sticking out of his bum. Where do these people think they are, the PTU Officer's Mess? When this particular practice came into favour, I'm not sure. What is the cultural significance? Although, it does appear popular given the number of pictures and video clips circulating. Also, getting your kit off, waving your man-bits about and throwing beer accompanied the Hershey highway action. No doubt, an anthropologist will secure a grant to study all this. Is it a right of passage to manhood or some form of fertility dance? What also struck me was the absence of the police as the fans ran amok. Maybe the cops are adhering to Prof Clifford Stott's 'Elaborated Social Identity Model' and keeping their distance in fear of radicalising the fans. Stott is well-known in Hong Kong for advocating that the mere sight of police officers causes spasms of disorder and the breakdown of civilisation as we know it. Better to let the mob run riot than taking enforcement action that may lead to people being upset. I suppose the saving grace is that the police's absence meant they didn't need to take the knee. Moreover, some yobs balls on fire are, rightly, a lower priority. Meanwhile, with people sticking flares up their bottoms, personal responsibility for Covid-19 precautions feels like a stretch. Once again, Johnathan Pie sums it up with eloquence. 10/7/2021 2 Comments Vietnam Part Deux “I want to talk about happy things man!” protested President Joe Biden when pressed by reporters about the withdrawal from Afghanistan. Here we go again. History is repeating like a bad Chung King curry. How else are we to judge the withdrawal from Afghanistan, with troops skulking away, while the zealots of the Taliban are on the march again. The parallels with Vietnam are striking and uncanny.
I don't blame the brave men and women who bore arms. They answered the call and did their best under trying circumstances. Once again, the culprits in this shameful episode are the politicians, who send young people into battle with ill-defined objectives and no end-game. Unlike Vietnam, the Brits played a role this time as part of NATO. In 2001, Tony Blair jumped in with both feet, although, of course, none of his kids would be doing the fighting. As a consequence of Blair's decision, 457 British soldiers died for no discernible reason other than hubris. With commendable foresight, Harold Wilson, the former Labour PM, had the savvy to keep Britain out of the Vietnam war. But, unfortunately, Tony Blair lacked that critical skill of forward-planning and something called a backbone, proving all too willing to do the bidding of Bush. Iraq is another example of a shockingly misjudged invasion. These British victims join an estimated 65,600 Afghan soldiers, 2,420 Americans, 159 Canadians, 89 French, 57 Germans, 53 Italians and 321 other assorted nationalities killed. At the same time, the Taliban lost 51,000 plus. Then you have 3,937 contractors killed—finally, an estimated 47,245 civilian men, women and children. Tens of thousands were injured. According to charity Save The Children, an average of five children were killed or wounded every day for the past 14 years in Afghanistan. That data can't capture the human toll on the families, the wounded, the smashed communities. Let's remember the particular penchant for drone strikes on Afghan wedding parties. Seeking to excuse the killing of 40 plus, including several toddlers during one such strike, a U.S. spokesman asserted, "Who holds a wedding in the middle of the desert? We know what was going on". And with that statement, he summed up the clueless approach of the Western forces. A lack of cultural awareness, wilful blindness and a 'we had to destroy it to save it' attitude underscores the mindset. The U.S. has spent a stunning total of $2.26 trillion on the war. That's just under 10 per cent of the U.S. national debt in 2020. Think what you could do with that; new hospitals, refurbished roads, bridges and airports. The Defense Department's latest 2020 report said war-fighting costs totalled $815.7 billion. That covers the operating expenses from fuel and food to Humvees, weapons and ammunition, from tanks and armoured vehicles to aircraft carriers and airstrikes. Although America first invaded to retaliate against al-Qaida and rout its hosts, the Taliban, the U.S. and NATO soon pivoted to a more open-ended mission: nation-building on a massive scale. Washington has poured over $143 billion into that goal. Of that, $88 billion went to training, equipping and funding Afghan military and police forces. Another $36 billion went on reconstruction projects, education and infrastructure. Then $4.1 billion has gone to humanitarian aid for refugees—finally, the campaign to deter Afghans from selling heroin around the world cost over $9 billion. As part of the nation-building, the West sought to shoe-horn in a liberal democracy model on a tribal nation with no history nor hinterland of such systems. That failed. The so-called democratic government is corrupt to the core and so widely reviled even the Taliban look more welcome to some sectors. Plus, the reason for going to war was dubious at best. While the Taliban did shelter al-Qaida forces, it's not clear that Bin Laden was there at the time. Later, he turns up in Pakistan, a supposed U.S. ally. Not only that, he lives next door to Pakistan's top military academy. That's where Seal Team 6 caught up with Bin Laden. Did the entire enterprise prove a colossal waste of human life, capital and time? Was it an honourable effort? Did it make the world safer? Of course, the NATO forces could win battles and take ground, but without a stable, trusted government in place couldn't translate those victories into anything meaningful. It's difficult not to conclude, as a resurgent Taliban gains ground, the effort was pointless. Helpfully the West left behind a massive haul of weapons that may now fall into the wrong hands. Meanwhile, Bush and Blair, the decision-makers, are busy accounting for their missteps by twisting the history. At each attempt, Blair looks more haunted because the truth will always be there. “I want to talk about happy things man!” protested President Joe Biden when pressed by reporters about the withdrawal. In Parliament, Boris Johnson sought to produce the best spin he could. Finally, a few conservatives MPs had the decency to acknowledge "it looks a bit like the last days of Vietnam, an unprecedented and hurried exit with no commitment". Reports of flag lowering in secret and the NATO forces sneaking away from bases without bothering to tell their Afghani counterparts doesn’t sound reassuring. At one location, the local militia only knew the Americans had gone when looters entered the base. The withdrawal is out of sight of the media because the imagery portrays defeat. Here's what happens next; civil war, millions displaced, thousands dead, and a new threat from the emboldened, rearmed Taliban. As the Taliban tighten their grip, heroin production will surge to fund their rebuild of an Islamic state. Along the way, their efforts will destabilise the region, including the border with China's sensitive Xinjiang province. Before that, minority groups face the terrible decisions of either up and leave — if that's possible - to convert to Islam or face death. This ethnic cleansing is a direct result of NATO leaving. In 1992, under Taliban rule, Hindus and Sikhs had to wear yellow armbands. Expect more of the same and worse as a brutal theocracy takes over. In the West, late in the evening, a mother will sit in silence asking what her son died for? Did he make the world safer? Did he free an oppressed group? At best, she can take some comfort that for a brief window of time, Afghan girls got an education, with some semblance of order attained. Maybe you could argue that a blunted al-Qaida forestalled more attacks. But, unfortunately, all is about to be reversed. The Afghans must be asking themselves why they bothered to trust the West, given the awful fate that now awaits them. Meanwhile, the U.S. and the West emerge from Afghanistan diminished on the World-stage. So next time, and there will be the next time, the politicians need to pause, and question are we prepared to stay the course? Or will we again lower flags after dark to sneak away, leaving another bloody mess behind? Because without an integrated military and political plan, these ventures are death-producing follies of monumental proportions. Surely, we can do better. 4/7/2021 4 Comments The Changing of the Guard "What sweeping reforms did former AOs Anson Chan and Donald Tsang bring during their decades of governance? Not much." With the usual hyperventilating, critics came out in numbers to slam the appointment of John Lee to the role of Chief Secretary. Lee, a former Deputy Commissioner of Police and the incumbent Secretary for Security, is the first former member of the disciplined services to hold the position.
While the ascent of police officers to top positions in government will primarily be analysed from a security perspective, a more compelling and largely ignored aspect is perhaps the desire to bring a 'can-do' attitude to the civil service. But, of course, the upper echelons of government is traditionally reserved for members of the administrative officer (AO) cadre. So I suspect a few noses are out of joint and that fed the bleating. Most commentators agree that Beijing's trust in the AO cadre has waned because they sat on the fence during the civil unrest of 2019, biding their time. That's not to suggest that these officials took a political stance, far from it. Instead, they adopted their usual wait and see attitude. As Bob Dylan asserted, "And don't speak too soon. For the wheel's still in spin. And there's no tellin' who that it's namin'. For the loser now will be later to win." Thus, the police were fighting alone without the back-up of the rest of the civil service. It soon dawned on the heads of the other disciplined services, which way the wind was blowing. They then came out in support to provide manpower and logistics. Some of the criticisms of Lee's suitability for the job are laughable. For example, people alleged he's inexperienced and unsuited to the task. That's after four decades in government, including holding down a ministerial post during a crisis. Yet, the same people want a 24-year-old running Hong Kong, a young man who has never had a job nor organised anything beyond street protests. Lee's replacement as Secretary for Security, former Commissioner of Police, Chris Tang, sparked mutterings of a police state taking shape. Give me a break, please. That's palpable nonsense and defies reality. Are not the independent judiciary still in place? The last time I looked, the guys and gals in wigs were still there. So, it's a stretch to claim we've become a police state. After all, critics continue to voice their criticisms, including me aiming at the government's failure to tackle many issues. And while I agree Beijing has placed a greater emphasis on security, that's something to be expected after the mob ransacked our parliament. Moreover, if the powers exercised by the police in Hong Kong are the definition of a 'police state', how does that sit against the more draconian public order laws in the UK? How about the laws that curtail free speech in Scotland? I could go on. Nonetheless, the appointment of Lee and Tang represents a change. It speaks to a concern about the effectiveness and willingness of the Hong Kong civil service to do its job. What sweeping changes did former AOs Anson Chan and Donald Tsang bring during their decades of governance? Not much. Poverty remained unaddressed, while the housing shortage was never tackled in a meaningful way. Instead, these mandarins applied the usual rote consultations, a plodding approach, no real change, and then tea and medals. Moreover, while Beijing may have doubts, the AOs still are dominant. Groomed to lead Hong Kong since colonial times, I'd opine that many in this group have grown too comfortable, pompous, adept at deflection and unwilling to deliver the initiatives that Hong Kong needs. Some of these people proved more twisty shifty than a twisty shifty thing. The AO cadre continued to function after 1997 much as it had before. Endless meetings, bureaucratic machinations and disdain for anyone who dared to question their right to rule the roost. I had the misfortune to attend meetings with these people. 'Yes, Minister' came to mind, except it wasn't as funny. As a consequence for many years, it's evident that several key departments have become moribund. Loitering in their offices, locked into process and analysis to the point of paralysis, not much tangible happens. As a result, many enforcement issues remain unaddressed, as the recent fire in Aberdeen Harbour demonstrated. With some boats illegally occupied, and packed on moorings, the risk was evident. Sure, we will see a flurry of activity after such an event, but it's soon back to the office and heads down. Meanwhile, the police by the nature of their role must be on the streets, dealing with whatever lands in their lap. They need to be proactive on crime to prevent things from getting out of hand. By default, the police are in direct contact with the community without the ability to hide away. In the process, the police take the flak for matters beyond their control. Take on-street parking as an example. In crowded Hong Kong, without adequate off-street parking, street obstruction is rampant. Yet, the police could ticket cars all day and still not make a dent in the issue because such actions only have a short-term impact. Meanwhile, the policy for parking rests with the Transport Department. A failure to coordinate an approach across departments to ensure adequate off-street parking and enforcement penalties that bite creates the situation we see. The police are left holding the problem. And this applies across a raft of issues. I saw with illegal land occupation, departments shifting responsibility with breathtaking audacity. Had the same amount of time and energy been spent tackling the matter, departments could have resolved the issue years ago. That's not to say the police are themselves are incapable of shifting responsibility; they've had to learn and play that game. Plus, officers can adopt an attitude that gives a low priority to matters that citizens feel deserve a focus. So, for instance, a barking dog is hardly gripping stuff for a cops but a real issue if you live next door. I suppose if the appointment of former senior police officers to top jobs in the civil service can achieve anything, it should be shaking up the current complacency and lack of focus on results. So let's see how this unfolds. |
AuthorWalter De Havilland was one of the last of the colonial coppers. He served 35 years in the Royal Hong Kong Police and Hong Kong Police Force. He's long retired. Archives
November 2021
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