Walter's Blog |
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Reflections on recent events, plus the occasional fact
free rant unfiltered by rational argument. |
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27/7/2021 1 Comment Money Talks "China and the U.S. are shipping goods to each other at the fastest pace in years" Sometimes you have to look behind the clickbait headlines to understand what's going on. So while U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman had a face like a scalded cat during her recent Beijing encounter, in truth, the U.S. and China are joined at the hip and need to cooperate.
Sherman was on the receiving end of a tongue lashing from Chinese diplomats in full wolf warrior mode. That’s something you wouldn’t have seen five years ago, affirming China’s growing confidence, or maybe that they understand the reality of world trade. Because, when you cut through the posturing on both sides, the data tells a story. China and the U.S. are shipping goods to each other at the fastest pace in years. It looks like the tariff war and pandemic never happened. Consider this: over half of the shipping going through the Port of Los Angeles is heading to Mainland China or Hong Kong. A shipping bottleneck is developing owing to the fact the port can’t handle the rising throughput. And all this congestion is happening before the pre-Christmas rush kicks in. Somebody better tell America's kids that Santa may not get through this year. The graph above, which draws on data from the Chinese authorities, tells a story of vibrant two-way trade albeit with an imbalance. As U.S. consumers continue to shop, Chinese factories are back in action pumping out products. Then when you account for the U.S. trade surplus in financial services, which it gains through the US$, that deficit in goods looks less troublesome. (More details are here in 'The Big Game') The only conclusion to draw is that both sides have learned to live with punishing tariffs, a fraught political situation, while talk of decoupling is laughable. We know that the U.S. and China use trade as a weapon in their wider geopolitical game. But, what does it say when the U.S. benefits from Chinese actions taken against Australia? As this report states, the U.S. stepped-in to fill the gap in coal supplies to China with Australian coal blocked. And I thought the U.S. and Australia stood together. Perhaps not when there is money to be made and trade to be done.
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23/7/2021 1 Comment Charge Of The Granny Brigade "They'll ignore government advice, the sage words of scientists and hard data, but the possibility of a free iPhone will get them moving." The Hong Kong public has finally woken up to the need for vaccinations. A surge in jabs means we could hit 70% coverage by September. Maybe they've seen the data from the U.S., where 99% of Covid deaths are unvaccinated.
I doubt it. More likely, the incentives offered by various lucky draws are the motivation. An apartment, a new Mercedes Benz, free flights, iPhones, gold, frankincense and myrrh are all on offer. I applaud these private sector lotteries, but what does it say about Hong Kong people's mentality? Of course, they'll ignore government advice, the sage words of scientists and hard data, but the possibility of a free iPhone will get them moving. None of this should come as a surprise, given the long queues every time McDonald’s offers a free piece of shitty plastic with a burger. Back in the day, I policed those lines. And the McDonald’s cohort, while eager, couldn't match an army of pensioners scrambling for free rice distributed by local charities. Every hardened police officers stomach knotted in anxiety when 'Rice distribution crowd control' appeared on the duty list. But, let's be clear. None of the old folks are hungry nor anywhere near what could be considered destitute. Yet, that didn't stop decades of imprinting — when free food is on offer, you dash in. The years of famine in China left a deep scar; thus, it often took a platoon of the Police Tactical Unit to hold back the charging geriatrics. I reckon dealing with a football crowd was easier. After all, you can't use pepper spray to hold back a marauding mob of rampant grannies. The optics are unfavourable. A line of barriers, batching the crowd, and some humour usually did the trick. A gregarious Gwailo cop, using broken Cantonese, to entertain the crowd also helped. Thinking back, the smell of those events lingers — a mix of musty moth-balls, burning joss sticks, with a hint of Pak Fah Yeow — all mixed in that signature Hong Kong confection. Somebody should bottle and market it — Perfume de Sham Shui Po! For the discerning. |
AuthorWalter De Havilland was one of the last of the colonial coppers. He served 35 years in the Royal Hong Kong Police and Hong Kong Police Force. He's long retired. Archives
May 2022
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