Walter's Blog |
Reflections on recent events, plus the occasional fact
free rant unfiltered by rational argument. |
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27/7/2021 1 Comment Money Talks "China and the U.S. are shipping goods to each other at the fastest pace in years" Sometimes you have to look behind the clickbait headlines to understand what's going on. So while U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman had a face like a scalded cat during her recent Beijing encounter, in truth, the U.S. and China are joined at the hip and need to cooperate.
Sherman was on the receiving end of a tongue lashing from Chinese diplomats in full wolf warrior mode. That’s something you wouldn’t have seen five years ago, affirming China’s growing confidence, or maybe that they understand the reality of world trade. Because, when you cut through the posturing on both sides, the data tells a story. China and the U.S. are shipping goods to each other at the fastest pace in years. It looks like the tariff war and pandemic never happened. Consider this: over half of the shipping going through the Port of Los Angeles is heading to Mainland China or Hong Kong. A shipping bottleneck is developing owing to the fact the port can’t handle the rising throughput. And all this congestion is happening before the pre-Christmas rush kicks in. Somebody better tell America's kids that Santa may not get through this year. The graph above, which draws on data from the Chinese authorities, tells a story of vibrant two-way trade albeit with an imbalance. As U.S. consumers continue to shop, Chinese factories are back in action pumping out products. Then when you account for the U.S. trade surplus in financial services, which it gains through the US$, that deficit in goods looks less troublesome. (More details are here in 'The Big Game') The only conclusion to draw is that both sides have learned to live with punishing tariffs, a fraught political situation, while talk of decoupling is laughable. We know that the U.S. and China use trade as a weapon in their wider geopolitical game. But, what does it say when the U.S. benefits from Chinese actions taken against Australia? As this report states, the U.S. stepped-in to fill the gap in coal supplies to China with Australian coal blocked. And I thought the U.S. and Australia stood together. Perhaps not when there is money to be made and trade to be done.
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23/7/2021 1 Comment Charge Of The Granny Brigade "They'll ignore government advice, the sage words of scientists and hard data, but the possibility of a free iPhone will get them moving." The Hong Kong public has finally woken up to the need for vaccinations. A surge in jabs means we could hit 70% coverage by September. Maybe they've seen the data from the U.S., where 99% of Covid deaths are unvaccinated.
I doubt it. More likely, the incentives offered by various lucky draws are the motivation. An apartment, a new Mercedes Benz, free flights, iPhones, gold, frankincense and myrrh are all on offer. I applaud these private sector lotteries, but what does it say about Hong Kong people's mentality? Of course, they'll ignore government advice, the sage words of scientists and hard data, but the possibility of a free iPhone will get them moving. None of this should come as a surprise, given the long queues every time McDonald’s offers a free piece of shitty plastic with a burger. Back in the day, I policed those lines. And the McDonald’s cohort, while eager, couldn't match an army of pensioners scrambling for free rice distributed by local charities. Every hardened police officers stomach knotted in anxiety when 'Rice distribution crowd control' appeared on the duty list. But, let's be clear. None of the old folks are hungry nor anywhere near what could be considered destitute. Yet, that didn't stop decades of imprinting — when free food is on offer, you dash in. The years of famine in China left a deep scar; thus, it often took a platoon of the Police Tactical Unit to hold back the charging geriatrics. I reckon dealing with a football crowd was easier. After all, you can't use pepper spray to hold back a marauding mob of rampant grannies. The optics are unfavourable. A line of barriers, batching the crowd, and some humour usually did the trick. A gregarious Gwailo cop, using broken Cantonese, to entertain the crowd also helped. Thinking back, the smell of those events lingers — a mix of musty moth-balls, burning joss sticks, with a hint of Pak Fah Yeow — all mixed in that signature Hong Kong confection. Somebody should bottle and market it — Perfume de Sham Shui Po! For the discerning. 20/7/2021 1 Comment Gesture Diplomacy "When the U.S. Congress banned China from collaborating on the International Space Station, what happened? Within ten years, China had its own Space Station." In summer 1970, when the parents next door banned my brothers and me from playing British Bulldog in their garden because we were too rough, we took the game to the street. Soon more kids joined in; we had extra space, a fantastic time and went to bed exhausted. Sometimes, actions have unintended consequences.
Thus as the U.S. announced another round of sanctions against officials here over the perceived erosion of freedoms, I'm wondering have they thought this through? This move comes one year after the implementation of the National Security Law. And while you can argue the merits of the NSL, what is certain is the law brought a quick end to the rioting. And that is not to suggest that the NSL vanquished the extremists. On the contrary, some have transitioned to terrorist activity, with bomb plots and lone-wolf attacks on police. As a result, the police remain on alert with high levels of vigilance. Along with the sanctions came a warning about doing business in Hong Kong. That fell on stony ground given Hong Kong's stout economy that companies ignore at their peril. But the question needs asking, do sanctions work or are these moves counterproductive? When China launched the NSL, the U.S. responded with immediate measures against Hong Kong officials and individual police officers. Yet, there is no evidence of any impact. Indeed, some people see sanctions as affirmation that the U.S. sought regime change here and felt vindicated to be named. Even policymakers view sanctions as blunt instruments, more manifestations of frustration than a serious attempt to resolve differences. Moreover, when dealing with a strong opponent like China, sanctions can give rise to the very thing you intended to avoid. When the U.S. Congress banned China from collaborating on the International Space Station, what happened? Within ten years, China had its own Space Station. In responding to the perceived threat, the U.S. spurred the Chinese on, thereby bypassing the West in the process. The same is happening on a broad front; in computing, agriculture and infrastructure development. Former U.S. Consul General to Hong Kong, Kurt Tong, makes a case that sanctions and other economic prohibitions aren't working. Instead, capital flows into Hong Kong remain robust because the sheer size of the China market means banks and companies must engage. So while U.S. Neocons cling to sanctions, he concludes the U.S. and Western nations have few options to influence China because the success of Hong Kong remains essential for the global economy. Oddly, having argued that sanctions don't work, he says that the U.S. should continue to apply them against individuals. He fears stopping sanctions will 'sends the wrong signal'. And with that, he sums up how naive, disjointed and ineffective is the U.S. approach. It's all about gestures because business trumps everything. And the Chinese, who are pragmatic above all else, know this. Of course, you could argue that America's greatest asset for contesting China is its military. But I'd assert it's the U.S. dollar. Of all global trade transactions, some 41 per cent occurs in U.S. dollars. Whereas the RMB only makes up one per cent. This fact affords America leverage over the World's economy while protecting U.S. citizens by allowing them to access cheap goods. In reality, the American people are paying for Chinese goods with 'paper money' printed to keep the U.S. financial system afloat. Plus, with well over 90 per cent of global financial transactions in U.S. dollars, the Americans have an advantage. Hence the U.S. has a trade surplus in services and a deficit in goods with China. Should the RMB ever gain traction in the World's financial system, the U.S. would be in serious trouble. While China is exploring options that rival the dominant US-dollar mechanism, including blockchain, these look some way off. But if the U.S. did opt to weaponise the dollar then China would likely respond with its own system. These days China no longer shrugs off sanctions to do nothing. Instead, it is willing to hit back. Confident in the power offered by its vast market, it can deny access that hits hard. Ask the Australian wine industry, which suffered a 96% drop in exports to China, its best costumer. Ask Nike how sales are going in China; down 59% after the company became embroiled in the cotton saga. Yet, as the American Chamber of Commerce made clear, the appeal of Hong Kong remains undiminished. Excellent infrastructure, robust rule of law, safe streets and access to the Mainland all work in Hong Kong's favour. As proof, AmCham invested in a new site in Central to foster business. Equally, The Economist rated Hong Kong top of the league for 'normalcy' during Covid, while inward foreign investment is the world's third highest. At the same time, property prices continue to rise, as unemployment moves below five percent. Say no more. 18/7/2021 1 Comment The Dirty Dozen "These anti-vaccine activists operate on Facebook, YouTube, Instagram and Twitter, reaching more than 59 million followers." Research from the U.S. claims that 12 people are responsible for most of the misinformation spread about Covid-19 vaccines. A report by The Center for Countering Digital Hate documents how this dirty dozen, some with medical qualifications, fostered suspicions and outright rejection of vaccines. In the process, they may have stalled efforts to counter Covid-19 by feeding on the public's gullibility.
This week, President Biden sought to blame the social media companies "They're killing people. The only pandemic we have is among the unvaccinated." Meanwhile, his spokeswomen claimed China and Russia are responsible for some of the misinformation. Given that it's a game all governments play, it's safe to say they are all at it, including the U.S. The CCDH report concludes the 12 named individuals — one a Kennedy -- harnessed existing fears within communities, including along racial lines. Hence, it's argued that Black, Latino, and Native Americans suffer disproportionately high rates of Covid-19. Further, the report highlights the profound impact when people take most of their information, unverified, from social media. After the events of 2019, this comes as no surprise to us in Hong Kong. Outright lies propagated by a few, entered the public mindset as the gospel truth; death trains and mass rapes are examples. These anti-vaccine activists operate on Facebook, YouTube, Instagram and Twitter, reaching more than 59 million followers. When you then extrapolate the trickle effects into the wider community, the footprint is global. And with plenty of conspiracy theorists and Karens out there, the appeal of the dirty dozen is clear. Here's how it works. On 19 March 2020, the website Biohackinfo.com falsely claimed that Bill Gates planned to use a Covid-19 vaccine to monitor people through an injected quantum-dot spy software. Two days later, traffic started flowing to a YouTube video on the idea. Soon it hit two million views. Then Roger Stone — a former adviser to U.S. President Donald Trump — discussed the theory on a radio show, adding that he'd never trust a coronavirus vaccine that Gates had funded. The New York Post covered the interview but didn't debunk the notion. Then that article was liked, shared or commented on by over one million people on Facebook. That's better performance than most mainstream media news stories. How you rein-in this activity to decide what is legitimate comment and falsehood, is fraught with challenges. With its much-vaunted First Amendment, the U.S. will struggle to tackle this issue. The same applies elsewhere. Moreover, given the deep-seated mistrust of governments in some sectors, any effort to 'police' the Internet may drive the lunatic fringe deeper underground. So, good luck with that. We're at the point where these influencers have persuaded many not to get a free, life-saving vaccine, and those people are dying at a rate of 99-to-1 compared to the vaccinated. You could argue that this is Darwinism at work, with the dirty dozen are killing their base. |
AuthorWalter De Havilland was one of the last of the colonial coppers. He served 35 years in the Royal Hong Kong Police and Hong Kong Police Force. He's long retired. Archives
October 2022
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