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Walter's Blog

"But how can you live and have no story to tell?" Fyodor Dostoevsky

Reflections on recent events, plus the occasional fact free rant unfiltered by rational argument.

"If you want to read a blog to get a sense of what is going on in Hong Kong these days or a blog that would tell you what life was like living in colonial Hong Kong, this blog, WALTER'S BLOG, fits the bill." Hong Kong Blog Review

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29/12/2021 0 Comments

Anita - An Allegory for Hong Kong

"Undoubtedly the emotive stuff hit the right notes with audiences seeking to remember a lost Hong Kong"

This movie is a highly sentimental, sanitised and somewhat truncated account of Anita Mui's life. I saw her perform a couple of times and know the dodgy 1980s nightclubs she worked with her sister in Yaumati.

First off, the lead actress, the largely unknown Louise Wong, is superb. She captures Anita's pathos, although her voice is markedly different. Also, the film is a journey through the monumental changes Hong Kong experienced in the 1980s, 1990, and 2000s.

Recreating long-gone settings, such as the Lai Chi Kok Amusement Park, captures a time and place that anchors the life of Hong Kongers from that era. With Jordan Road street scenes, Dai Pai Dongs and the trams making the turn outside the Lee Theatre, I had a tear in my eye.

Along the way, original footage of her iconic performances comes cleverly intermingled to give the film an authentic feel.

The movie's leitmotif is Anita's many failed relationships, her friendship with Leslie Cheung and her overwhelming tenacity to succeed. In the end, she foregoes love to marry the stage, appearing in a wedding dress for her final performance.

Although, in truth, there is another Anita Mui story to be told, and while this film alludes to it, they didn't opt to explore the deep triad links that controlled the entertainment business. The infamous slapping incident is covered, but the fall-out of two murders and a brewing triad war gets breezily ignored.

Likewise, the role of Anita's family as the film only focuses on her sister. Whitewashed from the story are her mother and brothers. That's another story. I guess the nasty family stuff and complications of intersecting on the fringes of the criminal underworld would change the tone of movie.

Anyway, I enjoyed the stroll down memory lane. Also, describing Anita as the 'Madonna of the East' is far from the truth. She was a much more talented singer than Madonna and a better actress.

Undoubtedly the emotive stuff hit the right notes with audiences seeking to remember a lost Hong Kong; that yearning for the past is especially evident after the self-destruction of 2019.

Thus, I can do no better than leave you with the lyrics of 'Song of the Setting Sun', her signature song and final performance on 15 November 2003. Cancer took her 45 days later.

In many ways the movie makers have given us an allegory of Hong Kong and this could be the anthem.

The setting sun seems limitless, yet it’s radiance doesn’t last
Gradually dispersing with the crimson clouds
It glows, fades and doesn’t return.

As months and years pass,
Life’s upheavals are hard to endure
Clouds gather and scatter, tangled in weary twists of fortune

Along the endless road, suddenly aware of a fading life
After all, happiness is brief and won’t return
Who has seen that my dreams are ordinary?

Having weathered so much wind and rain
I stagger towards my hopes and dreams
Having met your sincere shoulder and arm
Which carried me through my suffering

Rushing through the prime of life, my heart is dispirited
The road ahead is full of twists and turns
I want to go back one day, but it is too late.

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20/12/2021 1 Comment

Carrie Clings On

"Although she's not on the ballot, the election turnout is a de-facto referendum on her popularity"

Chief Executive Carrie Lam is no doubt sighing with some relief. She will take comfort that the 2021 LegCo election turnout is not catastrophically low at 30%. It is embarrassing, but after all, the results could be much worse.

Although she's not on the ballot, the election turnout is a de-facto referendum on her popularity and the government's standing. That plays into her re-election chances because she needs Beijing's endorsement.

Other factors are Covid, the lingering memory of the unrest of 2019, and an unprecedented attempt at a boycott.

The polls attracted international attention with electoral reforms that removed those seeking independence or overthrowing Beijing. In the weeks leading up to the election, a concerted effort by disaffected elements encouraged a boycott. That has failed; all they've done is give the other side a win.

Nonetheless, Carrie Lam sounded rattled when she made this statement last week, "I think the turnout rate does not mean anything." Really?

Why on earth say such a thing when you've spent millions on advertising campaigns, providing free public transport and making an all-out effort to encourage the electorate to turn out? Even Beijing got in on the act by asking people to vote.

Lam's statement is ridiculous, revealing a lack of PR savvy that has marred her term as Chief Executive. Also, the fact is, a fair proportion of the public, on both sides of the political divide, view her as politically inept. Such statements affirm that view because turnout means a lot in terms of legitimacy. Any leader who denies that is kidding no one except themselves.

Anyway, the turnout rate is an adequate 30%. LegCo elections usually attract between 40% and 45% of the electorate. And yes, this is much lower than attained in the recent District Council election, which hit 71%.

It's worth noting that the first LegCo election under the British in 1991 achieved a 39% turnout, although that dropped to 37% in 1995.

No doubt the critics will make much of such comparisons. But times have changed. The populist radicals aren't on the ballot, which means younger voters may not engage. Meanwhile, local correspondent Nury Vittachi argues this is the cleanest election we've had in decades. He has a point.

Even so, the political climate, lacklustre campaigns and an air of indifference dampened enthusiasm. As a result of the events of 2019, some have concluded that too much politics leads to disorder.

Alas, the offer of free public transport back-fired. Designed to encourage the people to come out, it worked. Except they headed for the hills while Ocean Park and Disney reported a brisk trade.

Of course, the media in the West can't help themselves. The Guardian led with a headline, 'Police Deployed at Polling Stations as Hong Kong Votes.' So, yes, we had police officers outside the polling station following the UK practice.

What can we conclude from this election? First, Hong Kong remains a society with deep divisions. Second, Lam may have dodged a bullet because the turnout didn't fall through the floor. Third, Lam's chances of a second term remain in play.

Today, she is heading up to Beijing for her annual visit, aka 'staff appraisal'. Everyone is watching for hints of her fate.

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19/12/2021 1 Comment

Boris is Buggered

"A politician complaining about the media is like a sailor complaining about the sea."

Leadership 101 tells us that followers reject leaders who fail to set an example. When leaders ignore the rules they set for others, they delegitimise their words. In short, no one trusts them.

Boris Johnson, the hapless British PM, studied the Classics at Oxford. Maybe he was asleep or recovering from a night out wrecking a restaurant with the Bullingdon boys, when Aristotle's "Liars when they speak the truth are not believed" came up.

Also, Aristotle spoke at length that leadership is an interaction between the leader and the follower. But not to an entitled posh boy, who survives by deflecting with humour and then muddling through. Not for him paying for new wallpaper, wearing a mask or adhering to the rules on partying during Covid. That's for the plebs.

Before the Internet, mobile phones and CCTV, leaders could hide their activities to some extent. Not any more.

Meanwhile, the Metropolitan Police again show an unwillingness to do their job when it involves influential people. They are happy to raid the weddings of ordinary folk, fining people under the Covid rules. Yet, they are less keen on investigating possible illegal goings-on in Downing Street.

It should be easy for Commissioner Dick's crew to view the CCTV coverage of Downing Street to determine what was going on. After all, the whole area is secure, with all movements logged.

Then, again, the Met has form for standing off and not doing its job. At the height of the phone-hacking saga in 2009, Assistant Commissioner Yates asserted there was no evidence of widespread phone hacking.

In 2011, Yates resigned under a cloud of suspicion fighting hard against allegations he had a relationship with Rebecca Brookes. A later inquiry found that he had failed to investigate phone hacking properly.

Is it too much to suggest that the Metropolitan Police have never learned their lesson? Or must I notch this nonsense up to another failing of Teflon Commissioner Dick?

With each day comes a new blow to Boris. The North Shropshire by-election was a disaster, with an unprecedented swing against the Tories. Then the bloke Boris asked to investigate the alleged parties, top civil servant Simon Case, resigned because he'd had a party. That Boris needs an inquiry to discover what's happening one floor below his flat tells us a lot.

Next Boris's Brexit man, Lord Frost, seen as the only adult in the room, resigned citing policy disagreements. Frost took to The Spectator magazine to explain why he's fallen out with Boris.

The public has decided that Boris is deceitful; thus, he is a liability for Tory MP's. They now openly discuss his possible successors as momentum builds to remove him.

In a bizarre twist, Boris is getting his Covid plans through because the opposition Labour Party support his approach.

And all this comes at a critical time. The British nation looks for leadership and clear direction, as Covid surges, it has a buffoon at the helm. Meanwhile, this clown blames the media for his troubles by focussing too much on politics.

As Enoch Powell observed, "A politician complaining about the media is like a sailor complaining about the sea."

Stay tuned; more to come.

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19/12/2021 0 Comments

Smoke Gets in Your Eyes

"Smoking is projected to a take toll of one billion lives by the end of the 21st century."

Hearing that New Zealand proposes banning smoking, my emotional brain blurted out, "Good for you!”. Then my rational side engaged, "Wait a minute, this isn't going to work. All they've done is create a new revenue stream for the criminals and reduced government tax coffers".

On a positive note, smoking rates are falling worldwide. For generation Z —those born between the mid-1990s and the early 2010s — 68% never smoked. Government policies and tactics played a role; gigantic health warnings, age restrictions, plain packaging, disgusting pictures of cancerous lungs, stiff taxes, public smoking bans and so on.

Less obvious is that people are more health-conscious. This change in the culture removes the subtle group pressure that may push young people into the habit. As a result, according to data for Hong Kong, 10% of the population are regular smokers, a decline from about 23% in the early 1980s.

Although Hong Kong's heavy taxation on cigarettes meant the triads and others, who illegally import untaxed tobacco that sells cheaper, had a business opportunity; that trade continues despite regular seizures.

The merits of reducing smoking are a non-brainer. In the US, cigarette smoking is the leading cause of cancer mortality. The National Cancer Institute director Norman Sharpless asserts," Eliminating smoking in America would cut about one-third of all cancer deaths."

Globally, tobacco use killed over 100 million people in the 20th century and is projected to a take toll of one billion lives by the end of the 21st century.

Yet still, some people keep smoking. And while officials and campaigners talk of an 'endgame' for smoking, that's a tricky one. For the record, I probably smoked about 10 cigarettes in my teens. Fortunately it always disagreed with me, and I avoided tobacco since. Watching a close relative slowly die from lung cancer reinforced the message - stay away.

As far as I can tell, only Bhutan tried to ban smoking starting in 2004. Almost immediately, this led to rapid growth in the illicit sale of tobacco.

Also, something else odd happened. As the ban was imposed, only 1% of the Bhutanese were smokers. However, recent data shows that around 34% of men and about 13.6% of women aged 18-69 are tobacco users– a stark growth in numbers.

What is going on? There is a suggestion that making smoking illegal developed an aura of the 'forbidden fruit' that attracted people to tobacco. This effect proved somewhat pronounced in young people. According to the Global Youth Tobacco Survey, the prevalence of tobacco use in this age group is disproportionately high in Bhutan.

Bhutan has now eased the ban because it drove illicit cross-border movement into India, bringing Covid back. Although, the Bhutan government asserts this relaxation is a temporary measure.

The proportion of people who smoke in New Zealand has fallen to 16%, while some 5,000 New Zealanders die from smoking-related causes every year. That death rate corresponds with global rates.

The New Zealand approach involves a long run-up to the all-out ban on smoking. Incrementally they plan to reduce the amount of nicotine in cigarettes. Anyone born after 2008 will not be able to buy cigarettes or tobacco products in their lifetime, under a law expected next year. Hence tobacco will be available for those born before 2008, allowing a black market to develop.

Also, nicotine may be the most addictive bit of smoking, but it is not the most harmful. The leading causes of disease are tar, toxic chemicals, and smoke inhalation.

How you enforce the age restrictions may prove a contentious issue. There are no national identity cards, and who carries the liability for proving age?

When the United States banned alcohol, under prohibition, Americans wanted to carry on drinking. So they did. Thus rather than legitimate, tax-paying businesses, they bought their alcohol from the mob. In the process, many law enforcement agencies fell to corruption as the mob gained influence.

Plus, I hear the US war on drugs is still going brilliantly. The country has millions of addicts that even militarised policing can't contain.

So, while New Zealand's approach is, on the surface, a worthy initiative, it is the unforeseen consequences that may trip up this bold move. Others argue that these proposals are illiberal, suggesting the New Zealand government is over-reaching in a intrusive manner.

Let’s see how this unfolds.

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