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Walter's Blog

"But how can you live and have no story to tell?" Fyodor Dostoevsky

Reflections on recent events, plus the occasional fact free rant unfiltered by rational argument.

"If you want to read a blog to get a sense of what is going on in Hong Kong these days or a blog that would tell you what life was like living in colonial Hong Kong, this blog, WALTER'S BLOG, fits the bill." Hong Kong Blog Review

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30/9/2020 1 Comment

Amok!!

"There is no better demonstration of how far US politics has drifted from any moorings of civility."

Trump ran amok at the first presidential debate. He bullied a weak-looking Biden and didn't hesitate to take on the moderator, who struggled to contain an insult filled session. Most of that vitriol coming from Trump.

The impression was of an unedifying mess dominated by Trump's antics. There is no better demonstration of how far US politics has drifted from any moorings of civility. Already the Twitter-sphere is full of comments: 'a shit show, a dumpster fire, inside a train wreck' captures the sentiment.

Chris Wallace, the moderator, tried to reign in Trump's constant interruptions, reminding him of the rules. It didn't work. At once, Trump pivoted claiming Biden had interrupted him, and yes he had, but not regularly. The venue looked like a schoolyard with a petulant toddler in full tantrum mood "But Joe pushed me first!" Already Wallace is taking flak; but, it's hard to see how anyone could attain control short of shutting off the mikes.

Trump opted to play nasty by evoking rumours about Biden's son. A visibly hurt Biden admitted his son had 'drug issues, but was making progress.' I suspect that short exchange earned Biden credit, while Trump came across as spiteful.

Throughout Trump delivered his points with confidence, vim and didn't give an inch. In comparison, Biden was low-energy, plodding and looked flustered at times.

No doubt the fact-checkers are hard at work assessing the details. We will need to wait but in a way none of that matters. It's the optics of debate that will sway opinion. On that score, Biden looked feeble next to Trump's chest-beating alpha-male.

Yet, the question is, did Trump overplay his hand? No doubt he won the 'street-fight', but has he inadvertently created sympathy for Biden that could translate to votes? Doubtless Trump's base will love his performance; it's the swing voters who may demur. More to come.

1 Comment

21/9/2020 1 Comment

Malice in Wonderland

"Trump is conducting a symphony of chaos with no discernible tune"

I am, to put it mildly, fascinated by the accounts of the Trump presidency. Has any other serving president had so much written about them. Over the past couple of years, we've had 'Fire and Fury,' 'The Room Where it Happened,' 'Unhinged,' 'Too Much and Never Enough' and 'Fear'. There are many others.

Now comes 'Rage' from heavyweight political journalist Bob Woodward. Remember him? Yes, he's the guy who in 1974 helped bring down Nixon with Carl Bernstein — a story told in 'All The President's Men'.

Woodward wrote 'Fear' in 2018, without interviewing Trump. In that book, he portrayed Trump's presidency as 'chaotic and dysfunctional.' Woodward concluded that Trump was out of his depth, and couldn't recognise his predicament. Is this the Dunning-Kruger effect writ large?

Then, in a bizarre move, Trump agrees to give Woodward full access for this latest book. Between December 2019 and July 2020, Woodward conducted seventeen interviews with Trump. He recorded over nine hours of exchanges. Likewise, Woodward had free rein to speak with anyone in the administration.

Woodward treads a similar path to others in this genre; Trump comes across as unfocused and rudderless. In the end, Woodward concludes 'Trump is the wrong man for the job.' Bob, we all knew that, some time ago.

Where Woodward serves a purpose is when he fills in the detail to give weight to insights. For starters, the trajectory of Trump's hiring and firing follows a predictable pattern. In the beginning, nominees are 'awesome,' 'a great person,' and 'incredible.' Then reality takes hold. The hire realises their advice goes ignored, or they fail to agree to Trump's demands. Slowly at first, a drumbeat against them starts.

Then comes a steady increase in sniping and snide remarks. Even Tweets help to push home the message that someone is out of favour. Getting wind of their precarious position, honourable men offer to resign. Trump then acts fast to portray these resignations as firings. 'Glad he's gone,' 'I didn't like his leadership style.' It's petty, disagreeable, backbiting stuff. In the process, Trump proves in his world that loyalty is a one-way street.

Everything for Trump is transactional, wrapped in hype, and driven home with occasional bitterness. The WTO, WHO, EU, China, Mexico, Canada and NATO are 'all ripping us off and screwing us.' Atop that is the legendary bragging and outright lies. These are too many to list. To help, The Washington Post keeps a record of all Trump's misleading claims. It's a fun read.

Let us examine one signature policy initiative — 'The Wall' with Mexico. By mid-2020, it's still not there. How much is built? Well, that depends on how you do the maths. Trump would say 121.4 miles is complete, yet 99 miles of that is renovations and repairs. New sections amount to no more than ten miles. The border is 1,954 miles long. Some way to go. And not a cent has come from Mexico. Instead, Mexicans are stealing parts of the construction.

Woodward had unique access during the unfolding Covid-19 crisis. He chronicles in detail all the steps taken by Trump or rather the lack of action. As the deaths mount, Woodward challenges Trump to account for the evident failures, the lack of coordination and reversals.

On each occasion, Trump distracts, moves on or pivots to head off any admission. 'China is to blame' is the mantra. Such statements play well in the rust belt, where workers have lost jobs to cheap Chinese labour.

On this score, only one point sticks. Why people couldn't move from Wuhan to Beijing due to a lockdown, yet international flights out of Wuhan continued. It's a fair criticism.

Even when Woodward gives credit and acknowledges Trump made a tough call in late January 2020 to ban travel from China, the event gets twisted. Trump asserts he went against professional advice to do the 'right thing.' Strange how everyone else present recalls a reluctant Trump finally taking counsel.

I suppose if anyone comes out of this book well, for me, it's young Jared Kushner. Against my instincts, I must give him kudos. Kushner scores points for his focus, attention to detail and for providing a stunning insight. Kushner demonstrates he can marshal resources and gets the job done at critical moments. His timely work in coordinating the distribution of ventilators for Covid-19 patients illustrates the point. He soon puts in place a system, which keeps ahead of demand.

Then, Kushner inadvertently busts open the Trump phenomenon with a staggering and brutal insight. He cites four texts that a person needs to study to comprehend Trump. With these, we go deep down a rabbit hole, literally.

The first came from a Wall Street Journal article that says, in essence, 'Trump is crazy, and it's kinda working.' Second, is the Cheshire Cat from 'Alice in Wonderland' who proclaims "If you don't know where you're going, any path will do."

Next, Kushner recommends reading Chris Whipple's 'The Gatekeepers: How the White House Chiefs of Staff Define Every Presidency'. Of course, Kushner is the de facto Chief of Staff. Last, you must digest the satirical Scott Adam's book 'Win Bigly; Persuasion in a World When Facts Don't Matter.'

According to Kushner, Trump's 'misstatements' of facts 'invent any reality' the voter wants. Moreover, Trump will never apologise, and if you call him a liar: well, that's because 'you always do.' It's akin to trying to fight a shifting cloud of gas.

Kushner observes that "The media can't hold Trump in check because he doesn't play by their rules." If they cross the line, they're ostracised. And because access for them is everything, Trump is prepared to cut them off.

One other thing, Kushner has a 'lean and hungry look.' Although a tad untutored on the broader world, he will learn. After all, he recently brought home a partial peace deal in the Middle East. He's somebody to watch.

At times during the interviews, you can hear that Woodward is attempting to school Trump. He repeats lessons from history, something Woodward at aged 77, and having dealt with every president since Nixon, is well placed to do. None of this appears to register with Trump, who displays few signs of introspection.

There is so much to pick over in this book. Not addressed, but something that needs acknowledging is the damage Trump has done to the USA's standing on the international stage. Many believe he has accelerated the rise of China by distancing allies under his 'America First' policy. This remarkable state of affairs has consequences which remain unclear.

In the end, I don't buy the argument that Trump is foolhardy. Far from it. He's a master of manipulation, can rouse a crowd and is ruthless. He's done many complex things in his life, while proving himself very stress resistant. Also, he's undoubtedly an odd man.

Nonetheless, he's taken the US out of the 'normative mild-incompetence' of moderate politicians into a new arena of constant struggle. Trump is conducting a symphony of chaos with no discernible tune. The question is, will the US electorate opt for a new conductor? We will know soon enough.

1 Comment

15/9/2020 2 Comments

Trapped in Space & Time

"Is your maths any good? We’ll be doing a lot of counting of boats as they round the mark”.

While not believing in parallel universes, my unfortunate victim may wish these existed. Then, he could escape my attention. But, hey, it’s not every day you get a CERN particle physicist hostage for six hours. We were there to marshal a sailing race, and I’d opened the discussion with “Is your maths any good? We’ll be doing a lot of counting of boats as they round the mark”.

He had the good grace to came back with “Yep, my maths is OK”.

Twenty minutes later, I learnt his profession. He immediately regretted telling me. Typically, people run away when I start on about my theory for unifying quantum mechanics with general relativity. And why it will be possible to achieve near light-speed using a blackhole, by skipping off the event horizon, in a slingshot action. I'm currently building a mock-up out of old toilet rolls, sticky back plastic, and a coat hanger. This proof of concept may yet allow us to escape this planet to colonise the galaxy.

My new best friend, the particle physicist, couldn’t escape. But he confirmed there is a particle detector between the tubes of the Aberdeen Tunnel used to detect neutrinos. I knew it. Millions of neutrinos created in the Sun’s nuclear reactions pass through our body every day without ill effects. How cool is that?

Between races, I managed to get in a discussion about multiverses, worm-holes, dark matter, black holes, and gravitational waves. When I say discussion, that’s an exaggeration. It was more him correcting me “No, the magnets at CERN don’t accelerate the particles. The magnet act to contain the particles in the beam”. Got that.

OK, so what did I learn, besides the fact that I'm dumb? Well, for starters, fusion reactors on Earth are as far off as Brexit. But, no worries, because we have a functioning fusion reactor that appears every morning over the horizon and disappears at night. It’s output only takes about eight minutes to get here. We’d be better off harnessing that because it appears the Sun has five billion years on the clock.

And don’t mention Professor Brian Cox, the poster boy of modern physics. Physicists are a jealous lot, and the fact that Brian Cox hasn’t done much real research is a bone of contention. Also, his youthful looks are not due to Brian using the Large Hadron Collider to travel back in time and regenerate. Who does he think he is?

After all, we know the second law of thermodynamics prevents backward time travel. Yet, forward time travel is possible. Our GPS systems take account of the fact that time runs slower on satellites orbiting at high speed. Also, this means that astronauts who speed away from us to the Moon and then return have aged fractionally less than people on Earth. Although, it's now known that particle physicists listening to boring farts with their crackpot ideas age faster than anyone.

Based on observations, I can attest to the fact that particle physicists can move fast once ashore, and when approached in the bar. Although, why wives jump to conclusions faster than the speed of light remains a mystery, yet it ages us.

2 Comments

8/9/2020 3 Comments

Testing, Testing, Testing.

"It's a sign of the opposition's immense privilege that they mock a free scheme that benefits the poor."

Last week, I joined the government's Covid-19 testing scheme. To date, some 1.2 million people registered for the free test. Making an appointment online couldn't be easier. When I arrived at the test centre, I'm greeted, instructed to sanitise my hands, and then registered. Next, comes the test: a swab from my nose and one from the throat.

The only issue I had was my eyes watered a bit. I'm heading home after less than four minutes. Eighteen hours later, a negative result pops up on my mobile phone. The scheme is a testament to Hong Kong's organisational abilities, with the help of the Mainland. Now the government is extending tests to meet the demand.

This high uptake is despite the activities of the naysayers, who sought to disrupt the testing by encouraging people to stay away. Only in a demented world would anyone seek to stop such a worthy public health initiative by inciting mass hysteria.

Yet even medical doctors, with breathtaking deceit, came out to criticise. A quick examination of their backgrounds soon established them as members of the militant opposition. Their opportunistic ranting then faded as public support grew for the scheme.

Scrambling to find a point of attack, they seized upon the low rate of positives. Have they forgotten that a pandemic begins with one infected subject? Thus, any detections, even one, is a step in the right direction. But when you allow the infected to circulate, the deaths mount up and mostly amongst the elderly.

Am I the only one to get the distinct impression that some in the medical community have allowed politics to cloud their professionalism? Or is the fact that private doctors lost a potential cash-cow, something that irked them? After all, the government scheme is free. With private doctors charging thousands of dollars for a test, they've taken a hit.

Of course, the opposition politicians objected because, well, the Mainland is assisting Hong Kong. In their minds, anything from the Mainland is verboten. Seeking to dissuade the public from joining the scheme, they touted stories of our DNA crossing the border in some sinister plot.

When faced with unassailable evidence that the entire procedure takes place in Hong Kong, they embellished their fantasies. The best I heard involved the covert planting of a micro-chip on our bodies.

These malicious efforts exposed an opposition that is willing to sacrifice people's health for a perceived political gain. I'm not surprised. After all, these are the same politicians who turn up at Prince Edward MTR Station to worship the 'dead' killed by the police on August 31, 2019. Ask the likes of Legislator Claudia Mo to name of any of the 'dead' and expect a fact-free convoluted answer.

When you want details, these people go further down the rabbit hole with claims of a massive cover-up. They muse about secret trains taking the bodies away, families paid-off, and hundreds of people missing. Then gullible western politicians, blinded by prejudices, rush to repeat these fake stories. In no time, the narrative takes hold.

Only one problem - the dead are coming back to life. One popped up in the UK, where he is avoiding riot charges. Here's a thorough account of the events at Prince Edward MTR.

Anyway, I digress. At least legislator Doctor KWOK Ka-ki, of the Civic Party, had the good grace to acknowledge that Covid-19 testing has its merits and is well-run. Speaking on Radio 3, he waffled around the topic before finally letting his professional side make a rational statement. When pressed on what he'd do different, he had nothing much to offer. He next went completely off-script by praising the Mainland. Shurely shome mishtake!

Meanwhile, the government has preordered enough Covid-19 vaccine for one-third of the population. Plans are also in place to secure vaccine for the rest of the community based on two doses per person. With stage three testing of vaccines underway, the process of immunisation should start in mid-2021.

It's now inevitable that the opposition will build an insidious campaign around stopping this mass vaccination. No doubt they'll draw upon the anti-vaccine lunatics in the USA, who've contributed to the re-emergence of measles and other diseases.

It's a sign of the opposition's immense privilege that they mock a free scheme that benefits the poor. They can afford a test. No wonder the opposition stands accused of shameful hypocrisy.

While trumpeting 'human rights', they seek to deny people the right to a disease-free society. This denial disproportionately hits our economically-deprived elderly by exposing them to increased risk. All rational and compassionate citizens must embrace testing and a vaccine so that we can get back to a near-normal and protect our senior citizens.

Meanwhile, the opposition's mask of common human decency has slipped.

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