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"But how can you live and have no story to tell?" Fyodor Dostoevsky

Reflections on recent events, plus the occasional fact free rant unfiltered by rational argument.

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28/1/2023 2 Comments

Tanks For Nothing

"Mission creep, once it starts, can gather pace and prove impossible to hold back"

In his 1967 novel, "Why we fight in Vietnam," Norman Mailer identified "corrupt capitalism, imperialism, and aggressive hyper-masculinity" as causes of war that bled American innocence dry. Add to that profound misunderstanding.

America entered a civil war it couldn't comprehend or win. Atop that, all its fancy weapons systems, analytics and heroics made no difference. Afghanistan is another example.

All this came back to me as the latest evolution of war in Ukraine hauled into view. Yet, cutting through the propaganda fed to the mainstream media (uncritically lapped up by supine editors) remains a challenge.

When the history of the First World War was written, many reasons fell away for the onset of the slaughter leaving the assassination of Arch-Duke Ferdinand as the pivot point. Likewise, for the Second World War, people point to the invasion of Poland as the starting point. However, they ignore the fact that Japan was already rampaging through China, before it went on across Asia.

I do wonder what future historians will conclude, if any are around, when the text of the next big one gets written. Will it be the invasion of Ukraine or the formal recognition that NATO is at war with Russia? I ask because the facade of the proxy war has slipped.

In the past weeks, we've had a steady diet of news about supplying tanks to Ukraine. I'll explain why Germany faced tremendous pressure to provide its formidable Leopard II. At times, even blackmail by way of reminding Germany about its moral duty after the Second World War.

In supporting Ukraine, the Germans are generally considered the most reluctant mainstream NATO ally. Since the outset of the invasion, they've prevaricated. Mocked for offering to send thousands of helmets in the early days, they've shown a distinct unease at getting involved. Hence, some strategic bullying proved necessary to whip them into line. Commanding the moral height of shaming Germany is the latter-day Übermensch.

Zelensky, the darling of the West's politicians who bask in his reflected glory, demanded Leopard II tanks. He again demonstrated a superb command of the narrative by framing the request as 'defending the freedom-loving west.'

Still, months ago, Biden and NATO asserted that the provision of tanks was impossible. So what has changed? Well, despite all claims to the contrary, Ukraine is losing ground while the Russians continue throwing missiles around. In a war of attrition, Ukraine will struggle to hold on.

Additionally, sanctions aren't working, and the Russian people remain behind Putin or are at least indifferent. Sure, some have fled to avoid military service, but not in the numbers that will make a significant difference. Likewise, Biden's assertion he'd collapse the Russian economy has proven hollow. If anything, the sanctions have hardened attitudes in Russia by affirming the view that the West seeks to destroy them.

Meantime, India, China and many others are more than willing to take Russian oil as Europeans see their fuel bills go through the roof. With the U.S. threatening their interests, the emerging superpowers will continue to play a canny game and leverage developments to their advantage.

So, why is Ukraine so keen to get its hands on the Leopard II? To answer that question, you must know that wars are won by logistics and by making things as simple as possible. And in the Western narrative, the right tank could be the game changer.

The Leopard II, reckoned to be the best tank for the job, is available in numbers in Germany and elsewhere in the region, with estimates of 2000 ready for use. Unlike the over-complicated U.S. M1 Abrams, with its fancy jet engine and sophisticated fire control systems, the Leopard II has a diesel engine, can move fast and has a decent gun.

Also, training and maintenance for the Leopard II will prove easier. A well drilled crew can do a full, in the field, engine change in 20 minutes. But, I have to say, none of the tanks offered by NATO nations will soon reach the battlefield. So don't get fooled by the hype. It may take months, if not years, before the full complement is ready for action.

Meanwhile, to spare its politician's blushes from the reluctant German people, the U.S. gives political top cover by providing some 30 M.1 tanks. Although U.S. officials admit, these won't arrive for at least six months. Last year, the U.S. made much noise around supplying the Patriot missile defence system to Ukraine to stop crazy Vlad's rockets. But, unfortunately, the system still hasn't arrived.

The Brits have made two Challengers immediately available in what appears to be another piece of window dressing. The Challenger is an excellent tank, but two won't make much military difference. Another 12 are said to come from Britain's paltry number of around 240. It's reported that poor maintenance means it will take time to get them ready. Only months ago, Britain contemplated scrapping the lot.

With Leopards from Germany, Spain, Canada and Poland, a few Challengers and French tanks, the Ukrainians could, in time, make up a credible force of over 130 tanks. Germany indicated it could provide 90 Leopards; add to that 14 from Poland.

Still, when you cut through all the media trumpeting of Biden and NATO, a few home truths need asserting. The supply of these tanks, whether Challengers, Leopards, Abrams or whatever, makes no difference to the immediate battle on the ground.

Why do I say that? Well, for starters, such a mix of tanks will need long supply lines, different maintenance regimes, and a wide variety of spares and technicians. All this takes time and creates complications in an already stretched Ukrainian military. Plus, it begs the question of whether NATO technicians must be close to the battlefront to service the tanks. If yes, that raises the possibility of their direct involvement.

Let us not forget that the Ukrainians received about 300 former Warsaw Pact T-72 tanks last year. It's not clear how these fared.

Generally seen as offensive rather than defensive weapons, tanks can make a difference. Yet, they also need infantry deployed with them to provide cover from the modern and potent anti-tank missiles. Last year, the Russians relearned that lesson the hard way. As a result, how Ukraine can integrate these various tanks, with different capabilities, into a coordinated, effective, mechanised unit remains unclear.

Of course, the danger in supplying more potent weapons is that NATO is pouring fuel on the fire and making negotiations harder. All wars end in negotiations, and as the first anniversary of Putin's illegal invasion arrives, the chance of talks is receding.

Mission creep, once it starts, can gather pace and prove impossible to hold back. Now, having a promise of his tanks, Zelensky wants long-range missiles and fighter jets.

Shortly, Russian soldiers could again be cut down by German tanks. Putin will doubtlessly summon up the weight of history to claim the Germans are on the march. Arguably, NATO handed him a propaganda victory. No wonder the Germans were reluctant to act.

Returning to Mailer's book, he provides a potent reminder of how nations become entrapped by aggression once the war machine rolls. As his protagonist, Randy Jethroe, stalks a bear (how apt) through the woods, tracking and eventually killing the animal, he loses his soul — "violence is as American as cherry pie". The next day he ships to fight in Vietnam, and we hear no more of him.

On this bleak scene we now gaze to ask, is this the point when it all kicks off? It's no coincidence that last week, the doomsday clock advanced 90 seconds towards midnight.

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27/1/2023 1 Comment

The Silent Change - Population Shift

"For child rearing, women carry most of the risk medically, emotionally and financially, especially if the father is absent."

If population size gives bragging rights, the winner by 2050 could be Nigeria. By then, one in ten children born into the world will be Nigerian. At the same time, the Japanese are facing possible extinction. Suppose current trends continue; the number of Japanese will drop by 30% by 2060. The Japanese as a distinct race could be gone within a thousand years.

Meanwhile, China's population in 2022 was 1.4118 billion, dropping 850,000 from 2021. This long-predicted decline arrived sooner than expected as the national birth rate hit a record low of 6.77 per 1,000 people.

By comparison, India, which will overtake China as the world's most populous country this year, was 16.42. The U.S. recorded 11.06 births per 1,000 people and the U.K. 10.08 births.

None of this decline in the Chinese population is a surprise. The trend line has existed for years with a combination of the now-defunct one-child policy and increased wealth heralding the change. Add to that a population imbalance created by the cultural preference for sons.

As I've covered in previous blogs, a replacement rate of 2.1 children per female is the minimum to sustain population levels. The 'total fertility rate' (TFR) figure is 2.4 worldwide (2019). China's TFR is currently 1.15, and Nigeria has the highest TFR at 4.7 (2021).

That once-feared population bomb defused itself. World population growth peaked in 1962 and has been going downhill ever since. Yet, at the same time, the fact that we live longer kept the population figures high. Although, even that factor is declining in importance.

In Scotland, which has the lowest life expectancy in western Europe, males can expect to live to 76, down from around 77 two years ago. Politicians sought to attribute this fall to Covid alone. The virus may have played a role, but the trend was underway before Covid came along. Deprivation, poor diet, plus high levels of drug and alcohol abuse play a significant role. Poor policies can reverse the gains made in human progress.

As its prosperity grows, China is experiencing the same repercussions that hit other developing nations; a middle class emerges, and women take control of reproduction. Japan, South Korea and Singapore are other notable examples. Such is the nature of progress.

Much of recent media coverage proffered that this population drop spells the end of China's growth. And, for sure, while it will have some negative consequences, it is possible to overstate the effects. But, in the short and intermediate term, claims that the Chinese economy will collapse are flawed analyses.

Let's crunch some numbers. Of the four top economies (with the E.U. considered a single entity), the population shares are China at 18.47%; the E.U. at 5.47%; the U.S. at 4.25%; and Japan at 1.62%. The total population of EU+US+Japan is 883,833,178 (11.34%), and this is still only 61.41% of China's population.

Counting by country, China's population is equal to 61 developed countries. That number of people confers economic heft, especially as wages remain lower than elsewhere.

Now consider that annually, China dominates in international mathematical, chemistry and physics olympiads. It is producing more graduates in the sciences and tech subjects than the rest of the world combined.

And while it is often claimed that the Chinese cannot innovate and only gain an advantage by cheap labour producing copied goods, that belief is old hat. In 2021, China filed 1.59 million patent applications — more than double that of the USA. Granted, China lags in high-end innovations. Still, given its track record, it is only a matter of time before it closes that gap.

With per capita GDP, China is only 1/6 the size of the U.S. Hence; there is still considerable room for improvement. In conclusion, China's economy will play a substantial role, if not a leading role, in this millennium, assuming the appropriate policies are in place.

Now while China may wish to encourage childbirth, the experience from many other places is not encouraging. Experts attempting to model the outcome of various incentives have concluded these don't work.

In the book 'Why Demography Matters' the authors acknowledge, "We don't fully understand why what is happening is happening. That is because what we are studying is a very complex system. None of our models produces predictable outcomes." This shouldn't be a surprise; people are not clones in a monoculture, so modelling behaviours is somewhat tricky, if not impossible.

And yet, the paradox is we can say that as a country's GDP increases, women have fewer children. Thus, we know the mechanism that brings about the fall in the birth rate, while we have few workable ideas on encouraging ladies to give birth.

Singapore is well recognised as having the most comprehensive pro-natalist policies. These were refined and tweaked over decades. Still, the impact has proven minimal at best. For example, the government covers up to one-third of child-rearing costs, yet the TFR has not risen above 1.3.

Fortunately, no one is suggesting we revert to the 'handmaiden' type practices with women as baby-producing units in an Orwellian society.

Providing tax breaks, support services and other measures may help but alone are not enough to counter the substantial cultural forces at work. Moreover, having attained equal access to education and made careers, women are naturally reluctant to sacrifice this achievement to the considerable commitment of child-rearing.

After all, women carry most of the risk medically, emotionally and financially, especially if the father is absent. Besides, there is no escaping the truth that evolution shaped the family unit to offer a child the best outcomes by making child-rearing a joint enterprise.

How we transform societies to address these issues remains the challenge. Sure, governments can do certain things by making sound policies. But, at the same time, commercial entities will need to do their bit to benefit the broader community. For example, flexible working practices, workplace creches, and other supporting initiatives will help retain staff.

Of course, countries can sustain their populations by allowing migrants in. Although, as British politics affirms, this is not without risks. The indigenous people may grow hostile to new arrivals that lower wages, take up scarce resources or are perceived to displace the natives. So the potential for dislocating social unrest arises.

The Brexit referendum, widely seen as a vote against migration, is an illustration. And yet, the U.K. could not sustain the NHS without migrants, as some 17% of NHS staff are non-British citizens.

Looking ahead, the movement of people, both by legal and illegal means, isn't going to ease. Indeed, it will increase. And change is always confusing.

Still, nations that manage these movements well by driving integration and sustaining their indigenous population's culture should prosper. Those that don't face potential societal disorder with the gradual erosion of their economic clout.

Getting it right won't be easy.

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24/1/2023 0 Comments

About A Boy

"Harry’s emotional incontinence drowns out everything."

A copy of Spare landed in my lap. Naturally, I didn't buy it. After all, Harry has enough money to get a skilled ghostwriter to manifest his 'lived experience' with all the angst that this turbulent prince can summon. However, having slagged him off, it's only fair that I read his ill-advised memoire.

Let's be clear; the book is exceptionally well written to the extent you have to ask which elements the ghostwriter conjured into existence for effect. Some descriptive aspects bear the marks of embellishment: "I felt an overwhelming sense of Overture, Prelude, Kettle, Drums. Act 1" ... Harry muses on first meeting Megan. Did he have the band of the Grenadier Guards outside?

But this all begs the question — who is leading who here? If there is any merit in the book, it's an affirmation that a skilled ghostwriter can work wonders.

On the other hand, no words can hide that the poor lad craves our empathy but can't shake off his conceit. Sisters-in-law having a row, brothers arguing, and the other machinations of a family — all standard stuff.

Yet, Spare is a book driven by a unique level of self-pity. Petty complaints about small bedrooms and other imagined slights abound. In Harry's mind, a room next to the servant's quarters is banishment to the hinterlands. Gripes like this soon erode any sympathy.

We've already heard from several people who appear in the book. They assert parts are exaggerations, while other recollections are simply wrong. But, of course, the media had a field day with this.

Also, this book is part of a broader, full-bore campaign to score points with the public. TV appearances and media interviews are the other pillars of this strategy. So, don't get sucked in by the statements of reconciliation. I surmise that the last thing Harry wants is a happy ending; he has another book in the wings.

Every page oozes with Harry feeling sorrow that he's the Spare, treated as a secondary consideration and shunted aside. And in none of that is any recognition of the extraordinary privilege handed him at no cost to himself.

When drunk and seeking to vent, he tries to pick fights. We've all been there. Anyone else would receive a swift slap-down or a good kicking that they could reflect on in the morning. Harry’s bodyguards restrain him. Hence, he can hardly complain that newspapers portray him as a 'hooray henry' when he behaves that way.

It would be easy to dismiss the book as a long rant from a spoilt man-child traumatised by his mother's death. But that's an unfair assessment. The book is worse than that.

Harry is angry at Pa for taking a new wife and furious that Megan suffered. In addition, he's pissed off at his brother, his sister-in-law, the media, courtiers … and the list goes on. This tale is the stuff of Shakespeare, reworked into a latter-day soap opera to play out before us.

For sure, Harry had a rough time. Divorced parents, endless press scrutiny and his Mum dying at the hand of a drunk driver. It can't be easy. Then again, Harry played a role in the circumstances that evolved. Although, any acknowledgement that he contributed to the outcomes is missing.

We all felt massive sympathy for the grieving child Harry, then chuckled at the party Harry. He then signed up for the military and did his bit. On the back of that, Invictus Harry earned our respect as he leveraged his position to help injured service people. But, unfortunately, the current incarnation is less appealing.

A couple of remarkable episodes jumped out at me. First, Harry deplores the press, yet he is more than willing to lie upfront about a drug habit when threatened with exposure by a journalist. He then boasts at getting away with it.

And with that, he casts aside any claim to be an honest narrator. Instead, like the press, the royal household, and others, Harry is a player in the game of manipulating public opinion.

Next, with no sense of hypocrisy, he berates Paul Burrell, Diana's former butler, as a self-serving man who exploited her death to make money by writing a book. He claims this, "Made my blood boil". Oh, dear. Even the smallest amount of self-reflection is missing from Harry's world.

Having thrown in the royal towel, Harry and Megan moved to the U.S.A., forging a new path with a young family. Of course, he could have left matters at that. But Harry’s emotional incontinence drowns out everything. And while this public airing of his bile may earn him short-term sympathy in some quarters and, in equal measure, disdain in others.

Some pundits seek to project their desires by asserting that Harry has landed a fatal blow on the House of Windsor. This is not true — it's survived worst. For sure, I'm sceptical about the royals, but the Firm will brush this off.

After all, in the U.K., Harry's standing in the polls puts him at the bottom with Prince Andrew, an accused paedophile. That takes some doing.

What to conclude from all this? Well, a decent ghostwriter can do great things. Still, that may not be enough because Harry is now in a game of diminishing returns. I suspect that this doesn't end well for him.

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16/1/2023 1 Comment

開門 Open Door

"The narrative of this pandemic evolves over time, even flips in surprising ways"

The door to the mainland is open after three years. The sudden and unexpected reversal in China's zero Covid approach caught many by surprise. As recently as late October, the talk was of precautions remaining in place until mid-2023.

Hence a scramble is underway to crank up systems, facilities and people long held dormant or in stasis. The mainland boundary crossing points, high-speed rail, airport and sundry other places must emerge from complete or partial hibernation.

In time, I expect Hong Kong to again act as a node for international travellers to the mainland and elsewhere.

Such reactivation is not without challenges, not least because of staff shortages. For starters, people laid off during the pandemic are less than willing to return to industries that treated them poorly.

Being cast aside isn't forgotten with ease. Further, having found new careers, these people will need an attractive offer to get them back.

Covid also caused us to reflect on life's more essential aspects. In that process, many concluded that a relentless work schedule for mediocre pay is not attractive. As a result, the practice of quiet quitting (安靜地戒菸) or insisting on a proper work-life balance gained traction.

Poor management and weak leadership don't help. So, companies that only pay lip service to the concept of a work-life balance but don't deliver, will struggle to attract and retain staff.

Plus, overseas places are busy targeting our skilled workers with offers of jobs, a fast track to resident status, passports and a less hectic lifestyle. And yes, these emigrants face obstacles, as those who departed to the U.K. soon discovered rampant inflation, high energy costs and a struggle to access health care. Hence, there are risks in taking that route.

In its favour, Hong Kong has a remarkable track record for rebounding. There is no reason to believe this occasion will differ from the 1998 financial crisis, the 2003 SARS pandemic or other hurdles we've faced. Moreover, we can always draw upon the massive hinterland to the north to secure the talent for our industries.

On that score, the Quality Migrant Scheme is already attracting talent with 5,365 applications last year - 90% coming from the mainland.

Meanwhile, as expected, Covid-related deaths in China have jumped, with 60,000 reported between 8 December 2022 and 12 January 2023. And, again, as seen elsewhere, it is the elderly who take the hit, with the average age of those dying at 80.

Hong Kong data shows the same trend; 95% of the Covid-related deaths are over 60 years old. While some 93% of this group had pre-existing chronic illnesses, and 46% lived in care homes. Of note is that 60% were unvaccinated, and 13% had only received a first dose.

Still, a debate is developing around the long-term safety of mRNA vaccines. Early in the Covid crisis, the big play was that the new mRNA vaccines conferred an advantage over traditional products such as Sinovac.

All vaccines introduce a harmless piece of a particular bacteria or virus into the body, triggering an immune response. Until the mRNA came along, most vaccines contained a weakened or dead bacteria or virus. We've used this method of vaccine production for decades and understand the associated risks.

A Hong Kong University study found that both types of vaccine worked. Still, advice suggested that the new technology adopted in the mRNA vaccines offered advantages.

The mRNA vaccines use a molecule called messenger RNA rather than part of an actual bacteria or virus. This molecule's introduction raises questions explored here.

As a subject of discussion, vaccines can divide opinion. Currently those expressing doubts around mRNA vaccines are typically on the fringe or pushed there by partisan interests.

For laymen, it is difficult to navigate this debate, especially when the 'experts' express opinions that contradict each other. Besides, there appear to be a few who are providing misinformation. These pundits cloud the issue, either for profit, personal renown or the misguided belief they are doing a public service.

Thus, all we can do is await further deliberations. As more evidence emerges, the picture should be more precise. We can then decide which vaccines may best suit the individual in the future.

But, of course, if it emerges that any entity downplayed or misrepresented the risks of mRNA vaccines, then citizens have every right to demand answers. Further, those responsible must account for their actions.

As an aside, and as a demonstration of how fast our knowledge is advancing, even our Neanderthal heritage is a factor in Covid survival rates. Research has shown that people with a part of a specific Neanderthal chromosome variant are twice as likely to die of Covid if infected.

This variant predominates in southern Asia. Meanwhile, other variants of Neanderthal genes protect against Covid. That's the evolutionary luck of the draw.

It is worth noting that the narrative of this pandemic evolves over time, even flips in surprising ways. Until around early 2022, Hong Kong was doing well and cited as a model of effective Covid management. Then Omicron arrived. It soon took a brutal toll on the unvaccinated elderly, with Hong Kong topping the death league for a while.

Going further back, in early 2021, the pandemic narrative told us that Europe and the Americas performed worse than Asia. Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea and Japan all sat run the top 10.

Meanwhile, the global south benefited from a younger population, thus proving less affected by the virus. Yet, by mid-2022, the distinction between these areas is less evident. Moreover, Europe and North America are proving better at protecting the elderly. Even now, the Covid death rate in Hong Kong (per million of the population) is climbing - data is below.

How the narrative develops from here with China opening up remains unclear. But for sure, the final script is unwritten. All we can say is that all nations struggled, and no perfect response emerged.

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