Walter's Blog |
"But how can you live and have no story to tell?" Fyodor Dostoevsky
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Reflections on recent events, plus the occasional fact free rant unfiltered by rational argument.
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27/1/2021 3 Comments Is the grass really greener? "Never forget this is the land of Shakespeare, Harry Potter, the Beatles, Nora Batty and Wordsworth." Britain is responding to events here by offering a route to citizenship for Hong Kong people. Applications start next week. In the process the UK has gone some way to correcting its shabby act of removing 'right of abode' from Hongkongers in 1981. That timing looked sinister, coming just before starting negotiations on the handover. Also, I'd argue the Brits threw away a significant bargaining chip by changing the law.
Yet, in truth, the BNO scheme is not much different from the UK's general 'citizenship' pathway except the process's prominence in the media. Beijing has reacted with anger, asserting that the UK promised not to offer 'right of abode' as part of the handover arrangements. Indeed, we know the UK unsuccessfully lobbied Portugal to withhold 'right of abode' for Macau citizens to avoid setting a precedent. With Macau citizens getting de facto access to Britain through their EU passports, the Brits looked mean-hearted. That’s something British ministers don't like discussing. Depending on who is speaking, hundreds of thousands will 'flee' or very few. The UK Home Office claims it is planning on a likely figure of 123,000 to 153,000 migrants in the first year. Then, up to 322,400 over five years. Keep in mind that 153,000 is equal to the population of Cardiff. One million would be equivalent to a city the size of Birmingham. Nowhere do we hear about the infrastructure to accommodate these people, the housing, the transport systems, or hospitals. That's no surprise. With an economy in free fall from Covid-19, and public borrowing at a record £1 billion a day, the UK doesn't have the money. There is a school of thought that the whole scheme is a bluff to bring pressure to bear on Beijing. It's claimed that in private, UK ministers prey that few take up the offer. Why? Well, they recognise the UK is ill-prepared for an influx of people, especially in a post-Covid and post-Brexit landscape. The UK politicians are selling these proposals to the indigenous population by citing a possible boost to the economy. That comes in the form of extra tax revenue of between £2.4 billion and £2.9 billion over five years. That's about three days of the UK's national debt. Let us run through some other numbers: a family of four will pay around HK$10,000- to make the visa application (£250 per head). Besides, the immigration health surcharge for the family would be HK$124,000-HK for five years. Applicants pay upfront with the visa application. On top of that, they'll need to prove they have accommodation and enough cash to support themselves for six months. Depending on where the migrants live that could be between HK$100,000-HK to HK$200,000. In addition, they will need to reside in the UK for five years before applying for citizenship. During this period, they cannot leave the country for a period not exceeding 180 days. The conditions stipulate no social security payments, which means finding a job or burn-up savings. All in all, the scheme has drawn a mixed response in Hong Kong. Some ask if the UK is so concerned about people's freedoms and welfare, why it doesn't grant immediate citizenship? Fair question. Others ask is Hong Kong so terrible that a move is necessary? Exactly what freedoms are people seeking in the UK beyond a vote for a politician who will then ignore their wishes? Again, fair question. One lady commented to me, noting the five-year rule: "That's a significant chunk of my life, including five UK winters. I'd prefer Vancouver for a winter". And there is the rub. Canada and Australia remain the favoured destinations for Hong Kong migrants. It's my gut feeling that the UK's offer will tempt unattached young people. For starters, it's much easier for them to move without the complications of uprooting a family or leaving granny behind. Also, faced with increased competition from mainland graduates, some may fare better in the UK. Of course, there are pros and cons to the UK. What struck me speaking to a few people here, is their belief a land of 'milk and honey' awaits. For them, Hugh Grant runs the corner book-shop, while Benedict Cumberbatch is rushing about detecting crime. These folks need a reality check. Comparing Hong Kong with the UK is problematic. I do not weigh up two similar places, they are very different, and any opinions come shaped by individual tastes. For example, some folks may welcome a slower pace of life and others dread it. The question is not, which is best, but rather which place meets my needs. Moreover, London is not the UK, no more than 'Love Actually' is an accurate account of modern life in the capital. Likewise, Hong Kong people need to understand that the UK is four separate entities, each with distinct identities. In recent years these distinctions have grown more acute, especially amongst the Scots. Even within the four nations of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, the populations are far from homogenous. There is a north/south divide in England. Then you have the old rivalry between Lancashire and God's chosen people from Yorkshire. Moreover, opinion polls suggest Scotland is slipping away from the UK. Migrants may find themselves in a country that's about to fracture. I won't venture to mention Northern Ireland; that's another story. I suppose that most Hong Kong Chinese will end up in the south-east of England, near London. This area has most of the work and a sizable existing Chinese community. Unfortunately, it also has the highest property prices. Migration continues to be the main driver of the UK's population growth since the 1990s. That growth is slowing down. London's population may fall in 2021, with Covid-19 cited as a factor. Let's break this down and seek to provide some insights. Likely Reception The Chinese enjoy a reputation with the British public for hard work, dynamism and energy. Indeed on the surface, the Chinese don't attract the hostility that other minorities can face. A YouGov poll found that 64% of Brits, who know of the visa scheme, approve. The caveat here is 'who know of the scheme' because 44% of Brits feel the level of immigration is too high, while 33% says it's about right. Britain prides itself on its 'multi-cultural' society with even small towns having a fair cross-section of races. Yet, most Brits can't make the distinction between the Hong Kong Chinese and a Mainlander. They'd also struggle to tell Koreans, Japanese and Chinese apart. Whether a sudden influx of Hong Kong Chinese will change attitudes is unknown. If locals perceive they are losing jobs, housing and access to public services, then the mood could flip. None of that alters the fact that the majority of the British are decent, welcoming people. Weather The British weather is such a feature of life that it forms the basis of most conversations. "A bit chilly today" can be a greeting as well as a comment on the air temperature. Migrants who wish to integrate would do well to learn the rules of weather-speak. The UK weather is less than stellar. Sorry, that's an understatement — the UK weather is shite. Long winters, damp, cold and marked by grey overcast skies. It rains a lot. During the winters the hours of daylight are short, with darkness arriving around 4 pm. Don't expect to see the sun until around 9 am if it deems to put in an appearance. The summers are nothing remarkable compared to Hong Kong. There are moments of absolute bliss. Nothing beats sitting outside, late on a summer evening with a pint. Jobs Covid-19 put large sections of the population on furlough, and the UK's unemployment is rising. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development assesses that the UK will suffer the worst impacts because it failed to get on top of the outbreak. The aftermath of Brexit continues to create uncertainty. Regardless, Britain needs skilled professionals with doctors and medical workers in demand. On a more positive note, the UK takes an enlightened attitude towards 'work/life' balance, with strict adherence to working hours. Likewise, workers enjoy better protection than seen in Hong Kong. But don't expect 13 months pay. Tax Be ready to pay much more tax, including 20% VAT on most purchases and services. UK income tax runs from 20% to 45% for high earners. Compare that to Hong Kong's flat 17% salary tax and no VAT. Cost of Living and Housing The cost of food from UK supermarkets is cheaper. With genuine competition — unlike in Hong Kong — prices are lower, and the range of items is broader. Most towns have a Chinese supermarket. For Hongkongers transitioning from tiny flats, they'll get more space for the money. Nonetheless, any property within commutable distance of London is expensive. As you move away from London prices drop off. In the south-east, the average house price is £258,640. To get a mortgage, a buyer needs a deposit of £38,796 and an annual salary of £48,854. In the north-east, those numbers drop off to a deposit of £16,542 and salary of £20,831. But, if the migrant has a Hong Kong flat to sell, they should cover these costs with cash to spare. By comparison, a single bedroom flat in London's inner zones will cost at least £2,000- per month. Further out, in Dagenham or Southhall, a three-bedroom house is around £1,300 per month. Public Transport Compared to Hong Kong, the UK's public transport system is expensive and less efficient. New arrivals to Britain, especially from the Far East, take surprise at the lamentable state of the nation's infrastructure. Crowded airports, with second-rate facilities, don't stand up to Singapore, Shanghai or South Korea. According to a 2019 survey, three of the world's worst airports are in the UK. Public transport is patchy outside the cities. Within major urban centres, such as London and Manchester, modern transport systems work well. Further afield things start to deteriorate. In rural areas, you'll need a car. Cabs are expensive. Safety and Crime The UK's crime rate is much higher than Hong Kong's. In 2018 the London crime rate per 100,000 population was 9,804, for Hong Kong 724. The Metropolitan Police recorded 149 homicides in 2019, 90 in stabbing attacks. Hong Kong had 24 murders. Even accounting for population differences, London's murder rate is far higher and on a ten-year upward trend. Also, British policing is in crisis. Detection rates are at low levels of under 10%, and only 7% of all crimes lead to a suspect charged. That figure plummets to 1.4% for rapes. Hong Kong's detection rates hover around 45%. If you are the victim of a crime in Hong Kong, a call to '999' will get a response. In the UK, that is not always the case. In 2017, UK police took over one hour to respond to one million' priority cases'. Even burglary cases go unattended, while knife crime and drink-related late-night violence are common. So, Hongkongers moving to the UK need to develop a greater awareness of personal safety. For example, your kids won't have the option to travel unaccompanied on public transport at night. Education The standard of schooling in the UK varies a great deal. Some of the local government-funded schools are superb, and others are failing. Parents will often buy a house in the right 'post-code' to get a child into a decent school. The private schools - yes called 'Public Schools' which is confusing — are expensive. Of course, the UK education system is less rigid and results orientated than in Hong Kong. Some kids will enjoy this regime. Services The NHS provides world-class care, although waiting times for treatment can be lengthy. This situation is not dissimilar to the public hospitals in Hong Kong. But you can't beat the NHS for critical care. Private health care is available for those who can afford it. In Hong Kong, if you need a plumber or an electrician, it is a straightforward matter, and they'll be there that day, if not within an hour. Not in the UK. Getting anything done, such as building work or simple repairs, takes time and expense. That's why DIY is popular. Other Factors The UK is proud of its cultural heritage with a strong preservation ethos and a thriving arts scene. Also, there is the splendid countryside, although the weather is a factor when venturing out. Did I mention the rain? Never forget this is the land of Shakespeare, Harry Potter, the Beatles, Nora Batty and Wordsworth. A rich seam of traditions runs through the place. Migrants must take account of the fact that the UK is in a state of flux. Brexit has opened deep wounds in society, causing polarisation and some social unrest. The very existence of a 'united kingdom' is a moot point. Summary All these machinations take me back. Pre-1997 I saw first-hand people going through the same process as families deliberated migrating. Some elected to go and others to stay. Either way, it was no easy decision. Over time, a few regretted going and came back. Others settled to make a new life overseas with mixed degrees of success. In any case, the movement of people in and out of Hong Kong is nothing new. To be sure, opting to go or stay is a personal choice. Many migrants cite 'freedom' as the reason for choosing the UK, with a tendency of adopting an oversimplified viewpoint. After all, there are many dimensions to freedom, such as the ability to walk the streets safe, day or night. This survey provides some pointers. Will securing work in post-Brexit and Covid-19 ravaged Britain prove a daunting challenge? After all, the economy runs on confidence, which is fragile in the UK at the moment. With China's economy growing, plus the Greater Bay Area's ambitious plan, is staying put a better option? Those of us who marvelled as Shenzhen grew from nothing to a mega-city in 40 years know that China delivers. Having said that, certain categories of professionals will experience few difficulties in securing work. How China decides to handle the BNO issue will have a significant impact on people's thinking. If Beijing brings in punitive measures against BNO holders, those who opt for UK citizenship may lose the 'right of abode' in Hong Kong. For some that has a psychological, as well as a practical wallop. So, as the saying goes, 'it's swings and roundabouts' at the end of the day. The choice offers advantages and disadvantages depending on perceptions. Take your pick. I suppose the smart folks will seek to leverage the best of both worlds while sitting out the 'politics' that swirls around us.
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26/1/2021 1 Comment The Flowering of Scotland "Voltaire asserted: "We look to Scotland for all our ideas of civilisation." Obviously, he'd never seen Sauchiehall Street on a Saturday night, but the point is well made." "We don't take foreign money": That's the response a Scots relative received when he presented a Royal Bank of Scotland £20 note at a Bridlington fish & chip shop. He replied with profanity and something about 'Remember Bannockburn'. Such episodes do nothing to foster the 'Union'. For the record, Scottish notes are legal tender in England.
As if Brexit and Covid-19 wasn't enough, the United Kingdom is facing the prospect of a breakup. If Nichola Sturgeon, Scotland's First Minister, has her way, the path to Scottish independence is heaving into view this May. With Scottish parliamentary elections due, Sturgeon has said her party will hold an independence vote if it wins. And the polls show the majority of Scots want independence. By setting out her 11-point roadmap, Sturgeon seeks to bypass Boris Johnson's veto on the issue. Until now, the serial adulterer Johnson failed to win over Sturgeon. And henceforth, saying 'no' to Scotland isn't going to work. Further, Johnson's blundering over Covid-19 has awarded Sturgeon a victory. She came across as a leader with vim, control and vision. In stark contrast, Johnson flip-flopped and proved incoherent at times. No matter that Scotland faired no better than England on deaths and Covid-19 cases, because wee Nichola looked superior. Many Tories are starting to believe that Sturgeon is the real opposition rather than the unfortunate Labour party. Last week, the Spectator magazine ran an article that Sturgeon is the biggest threat to Johnson's premiership. Things must be bad when she enjoys better poll ratings with English voters than Johnson. Plus, we know that Johnson tends to ignore issues until the last minute. Thus sticking to a blocking approach amounts to drifting towards a constitutional crisis. And, as if the prospect of Scotland heading off isn't worrying enough, Northern Ireland is watching with interest. They may yet take a cue from Scotland. While Johnson managed to bluff his way through Brexit and Covid-19, his career is over unless he acts to safeguard the Union. The man who idolises Churchill may yet go down in history as a latter-day Chamberlain. Outflanked and outclassed by a savvy opponent. Let's not forget that Scotland produced the most astonishing array of philosophers, engineers and mathematicians. Voltaire asserted: "We look to Scotland for all our ideas of civilisation." Obviously, he'd never seen Sauchiehall Street on a Saturday night, but the point is well made. Scotland gave birth to many ideas and innovations that transformed Britain and spread out into the world through the Enlightenment. That this all spilt forth from a population of just over a million in the 1700s is remarkable. In truth, much of this was possible because of the Union, which conferred stability and synergy (hate that word, but it fits the bill). As Boris appears incapable of forming a vision for the Union's future, and the SNP is in the ascendancy, is the die cast? What shape the independence will take is now the question. Meanwhile, not all Scots welcome independence. Here is one delivering his opposition with some levity. 24/1/2021 0 Comments Silver Lining "We need to balance the risks of Covid-19 against a multitude of other consequences caused by our response." Here we go again. A couple of city blocks in Kowloon are now in temporary lock-down as another spike in Covid-19 takes hold. Residents are undergoing testing to stem this new cluster. Crowded tenements, with sub-divided flats, is the ideal breeding ground for the virus. I'm surprised we've not seen more such clumps of cases. As the graph below shows, we've had ups and downs throughout the year. Unless I'm missing something, reviewing the data makes it challenging to correlate the surges and drops in cases to specific measures. Yes, I agree wearing masks helps, and social distancing must have an impact. Likewise, track and trace allied to quarantining carriers, cuts transmission rates. Whether the on/off dining restrictions, the closure of gyms and schools proved useful is debatable.  Yet, at times it feels like we are returning to the beginning. Interpreting all the data is a nightmare because the variables are so many, while the media doesn't help.
They'll seize upon something sensational to get a headline without explaining the proper context. For example, is the UK variant of Covid-19 really that much deadlier? The data is far from comprehensive, and the experts talk about a 'realistic possibility' that infection with the UK variant is associated with an increased risk of death. The term 'realistic possibility' has a specific meaning: they are between 40 to 50 % sure of their findings. In other words, we need more data to be certain. That nuance is lost on the media. However, there are certain things we can say. Covid tends to kill older folks, especially those with secondary conditions. This factor is significant and let me illustrate why comparisons with previous pandemics are not always helpful. When the Hong Kong flu struck the UK in 1968, the average life expectancy was about 72 years. Today it's 81 years. You can immediately see that improvement creates a larger cohort of old folks to protect. Moreover, the average age of those dying with Covid in the UK is 82. In Hong Kong, the data shows similar patterns. HKU determines that the overall severity of Covid on the over 70s is nine times greater with a fatality rate of 14%. For the under-50s the fatality rate is 0.1%. It's worth remembering that advances in medical care are keeping many critical patients alive. Again, in the past, these people would have died. That's why comparing today with 1918-20 or 1968 is not always helpful. Besides, the 1918-20 flu pandemic was unique, in that a disproportionate number of its victims were ages 15 and 44. Likewise, saying one nation is doing better than another must factor in the population's general health. For example, in the US, obesity is pushing up death rates. The pandemic will likely be with us for the remainder of 2021. Our politicians need to be upfront about that. The harsh truth is we need to balance the risks of Covid-19 against a multitude of other consequences caused by our response. While the economic impact is to the fore, the population's mental and physical health needs attending. Preventing people from exercising, socialising and confining them to small homes must be weighed up. Let's face it; everyone is already tired of flip-flopping messages from our leaders. I have to say that the notion of zero Covid -19 cases is nonsense. With its strict lock-downs and a robust medical surveillance system, even China has seen outbreaks return. We need to discuss the level of risk that society is prepared to accept—that conversation isn't happening. The political leadership must acknowledge these realities to stop painting a rosy picture to shore up their short-term popularity. On a more positive note, science is coming to our rescue. Covid-19 may prove the event that spurred the next revolution in vaccines, with profound positive consequences for humankind. Sorry, I can't help myself but have a dig at the lunatic fringe, who value opinions over objective truths and facts. Their subjective ways and homoeopathic horse-shit won't save us. What will come to the rescue are the scientists. At the forefront are the mRNA vaccines, doggedly enhanced this year these may yet prove capable of fighting all harmful viruses. Once genetic engineers sequence a virus, they can tweak mRNA vaccines to fire up the human immune system. Advances mean sequencing now takes days rather than months. We may soon have an all-purpose vaccine ready for deployment against hepatitis and even the common cold. Of course, the anti-vaccinationists can stay away. Instead, they can take advice from Karen on Facebook, a shaman, or some voodoo doctor. If and when a more deadly virus arrives, let nature take its course, and they'll be gone. That's the wonder of Darwinism. My belief is that science will get us through Covid-19. But what will the post-Covid-19 world look like? No doubt some of our habits will evolve. People will continue to wear masks, especially on public transport and in other crowded locations. Awareness of fitness and general wellbeing will grow as people take up long-term healthy habits. Smokers must be ready to face even greater disapproval. There is also a debate around the virtues of dispersed working and the need for offices. Given the economic merits conferred by cities and direct human collaboration, I'm suggesting not much will change as attending a workplace confers advantages. It will take more than Covid-19 to reverse the trend of urbanisation. Sociologist and economists observed that the 1918-20 flu pandemic drove an upsurge in human creativity that swept through the 1920s. Massive building projects, technology innovations and the arts all received a boost. At this moment, someone is sitting in isolation, writing a groundbreaking thesis, a breathtaking film script or redefining music with a novel creation. Eventually, this stuff will emerge. We may yet see that Covid-19 herald another evolution of human advancement. 15/1/2021 1 Comment Trump - a leader? "We should not confuse a desire to seek and hold power as competence to lead." Trump is entering his final days in the White House. Who'd believe that a serving US president would stand accused of inciting insurrection and terrorism? Well, except, of course, in other countries. You've got to give Trump his due; the man is a bold innovator for trying out US foreign policy on home soil. An exciting concept, which left five dead in one day.
Despite throwing his followers under the bus by decrying their actions, many remain loyal. A new poll found two-thirds of Republicans approve of his behaviour, with 43 per cent 'strongly' agreeing. Meanwhile, the FBI is warning of more violence. In response, Washington is now home to more US troops than war-torn Afghanistan. In 2019, the PLA deployed on the streets of Hong Kong. That was to clear up debris after a typhoon. With jaw-dropping audacity, the opposition decried this deployment as the 'end of Hong Kong'. Moreover, despite months of rioting, bombs and mayhem, the Hong Kong Police regained order without killing a single person. As veteran US diplomat Chas Freeman acknowledged "Our police are apparently not as well-trained and gentle as those that the British left behind in Hong Kong." Indeed. But I digress. Over the past four years, Trump's leadership style provided a great deal of fodder to chew on. He exhibits many of the attributes recognised in successful leaders from history. Applying the traits model of leadership qualities, we can see that Trump ticks many of the boxes. He's confident, outgoing, dominant, ambitious, bold, controlling, dauntless, engaging and able to communicate messages easily. All these features are well-recognised leadership strengths if moderated and applied with finesse. The paradox is that these traits are also potential weaknesses. When allied to a brash, selfish and boastful nature, such characteristics can run out of control. And it is the area of weaknesses that Trump also excels. He is impulsive, acts on his emotions, has a weak grasp of complex issues, indulges in hubris that goes off the scale, while he focuses on short-term gains. For most of the time, he appears to operate as a 'transactional' leader. By way of explanation, 'transactional' leaders give something as a reward for work or outcomes. Those rewards come through jobs, favours, praise or money. This approach can work, although it has limitations. We know from research that 'transactional' leadership is weaker than the 'transformational' approach. It can also lead to subordinates who are loyal but incompetent. 'Transactional' leadership needs constant reinforcement to maintain results. In short, keep giving the sweets, or your people wander off. With 'transformational' leadership, people buy into your brand and ideas, and you sustain loyalty by a sense of purpose. While Trump may enjoy some 'transformational' support from his core family team, his broader circle needs the 'sweets'. 'Transactional' leaders tend to buy loyalty. Conversely, the 'transformational' leader aims to build a personal commitment from their team. I'd argue that the high-turnover of White House staff is indicative of a failing 'transactional' approach. This state of affairs creates extreme risks for a leader, especially one who is not prepared to listen to advice. When complex issues arise, leaders need a team able to weigh the implications of actions. The opportunity to speak in candid terms is crucial. We've seen from Trump's public statements and the insights given by various insiders that he adopts a black and white world view. This lack of nuance led to his failed efforts to engage North Korea. Along the way, Trump accorded Kim Jong-un gravitas as his equal, although the 'Little Rocket-man' out-flanked him. In the end, Trump came away, empty-handed from two summits. While his vision of 'America First' had immediate resonance at home, it proved to have less utility in foreign relations. Trying to build coalitions and unify allies is problematic when you trample on their needs. Further, we should not confuse a desire to seek and hold power as competence to lead. Several pundits have observed that Trump has strong narcissistic tendencies. And while many leaders are on the narcissistic spectrum, there is compelling evidence Trump is high in the unhealthy aspects. Doctor Mary L Trump, his niece and psychologist, had this say of her uncle: "His deep-seated insecurities have created in him a black hole of need that constantly requires the light of compliments that disappears as soon as he's soaked it in. Nothing is ever enough. This is far beyond garden-variety narcissism; Donald is not simply weak, his ego is a fragile thing that must be bolstered every moment because he knows deep down that he is nothing of what he claims to be." These egotistical aspects include an inflated sense of self-importance (Greatest President ever! - many people saying it!), fantasies of success (I built the wall) and distortions about their abilities. (Sorry losers and haters, but my IQ is one of the highest!). As moderate voices exit Trump's entourage, who remains to feed his ego? Only those who pander to him. Given his known ability to construct false narratives, a 'bunker mentality' will make for an exciting lead-in to Biden's inauguration next Wednesday. I predicted some of this in 2017, although I have to admit that Trump exceeded my expectations with this dysfunctional ending. I feel Trump is bound to stage a significant gesture to mark his departure from the White House. If he has any decency, he'd shake Biden's hand (or bump elbows), wish him well and move on. Somehow, I doubt that will happen. |
AuthorWalter De Havilland was one of the last of the colonial coppers. He served 35 years in the Royal Hong Kong Police and Hong Kong Police Force. He's long retired. Archives
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