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Walter's Blog

"But how can you live and have no story to tell?" Fyodor Dostoevsky

Reflections on recent events, plus the occasional fact free rant unfiltered by rational argument.

"If you want to read a blog to get a sense of what is going on in Hong Kong these days or a blog that would tell you wh at life was like living in colonial Hong Kong, this blog, WALTER'S BLOG, fits the bill." Hong Kong Blog Review

31/1/2022 0 Comments

Putin on the Ritz

"Either Putin is serious, and we don't know about something, or this is a colossal bluff."

Is there something not quite right with the story fed to us around the Russia and Ukraine crisis? I ask because even the Ukrainian president, the supposed victim in this saga, wants the West to cool it.

I'm pretty sure that Putin is thuggish. No doubt he will use military force to achieve political objectives. For example, faced with a Georgian bid to join NATO in 2008, his tanks went in and won. In 2016, he again won with an intervention in Crimea that used irregular troops. His 'little green men' did the job.

All the time, the West huffed and puffed but did nothing beyond a few token troop deployments. Even after his agents splashed a nerve agent around Salisbury and highly toxic Polonium-210 in London, the response was lame with a series of tit for tat expulsions.

As the drumbeat for war builds in the West, I'm having trouble weighing ambition with resources. One hundred thousand soldiers will not be enough to take and hold a country the size of Ukraine. Putin may have air superiority and loads of tanks, but suppressing 41 million Ukrainians will take a lot more manpower than he has deployed.

So what is the issue? The geopolitical positions are, on the surface, straightforward:

Russia wants the US and NATO to stop expanding eastward because it sees that as threatening.
Putin wants NATO to accede that Ukraine will never be a member.
Russia fears encirclement by NATO that it sees as encroaching on its region of influence.

NATO, led by Washington, seeks a de-escalation with Russia pulling back troops from the border with Ukraine.

Putin set out his store in an essay published here. This thesis traces a common heritage of Russians, Ukrainians, and Belorussians going back to the 17th century. No matter his interpretation of history is debatable, the point is he believes it, and that shapes his actions.

The White House claims — based on 'intelligence' — that Russia may conduct a false-flag operation to kick-start an invasion. The Brits joined in with more details that Russia plans to install a puppet government in Ukraine. At the same time, the Germans are saying that Russia has not yet decided to invade.

The value of much of this 'intelligence' deserves measuring against the recent stunning failures in Afghanistan. Predicting the Afghan forces would hold out against the Taliban, the Americans conducted a hasty retreat.

Within days they found themselves surrounded at Kabul Airport by triumphant Taliban fighters, who'd run over the Afghan forces with ease. Add to that lies about WMDs in Iraq to see that the public have a jaundiced view of 'intelligence.'

So looking at Putin's manpower and posturing, I guess his objectives are somewhat smaller and more digestible. Maybe he's making the point that he won't be pushed around and deserves respect. Indeed, a German admiral asserted that and he lost his job for that moment of openness.

Yet, if he does invade Ukraine, Putin will turn most of Europe against him. Sleepy countries who believed they were living in the age of ‘the end of history’ will awake to rearm and act against Russian interests. The reaction will not be insignificant.

So I'm curious what are we missing in the risk-reward analysis. Either Putin is serious, and we don't know about something, or this is a colossal bluff.

Putin is a savvy operator and a lot brighter than he's given credit for by most Western politicians. Atop that, he sees that his opponents as divided and weakened under the leadership of a bumbling president. Biden's mixed signals don't fill anyone with confidence.

Then you have the clown Boris Johnson seeking to shoe-horn himself into the crisis to distract from his troubles at home. He's under siege from the police, members of his party and a confident opposition.

Johnson longs to mimic his hero Churchill by striding the international stage to put the world right. Only one problem - the rest of Europe doesn't want to indulge Johnson's fantasy, while France has already stolen the lead by direct talks with Putin.

As Putin mulls his options, he won't have missed that German support for Ukraine amounts to 5,000 helmets. That is against the Brits sending anti-tank missiles and the US dropping in a whole load of kit. France is deploying a couple of hundred troops to Romania, which looks like a gesture only.

Of course, the Germans are reluctant to jump in given that they rely on Russia for energy, as do other European nations to various degrees. Some 30% of the EU's petroleum imports and 39% of gas imports came from Russia in 2017. That gives Putin loads of leverage.

As the war drums beat, I’d point out that a couple of crucial actions you'd usually see if Russia seeks to invade are missing from all this activity. First, Putin is low profile and has been absent from the airwaves, while there is no attempt to rally the Russian people behind a war. Second, Russian TV pundits are busy portraying the West as unhinged and creating a crisis by over-reacting.

Accepting that Putin is a ruthless but rational actor, I don't see a complete invasion of Ukraine because even if he captures the country, the question is, what next?

In any case, without firing a shot, Putin has exposed the disharmony in the West and has them scrambling around to a meet a threat that may not exist. If that's his game, he's played his hand brilliantly.

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27/1/2022 0 Comments

Vaccines - between Freewill & Coercion

"The needs of the many eclipse the needs of the few".

Vaccines are only effective when enough people receive them within a given population. Yet vaccine refusal remains a serious issue. For example, in Hong Kong, less than 30 per cent of the over 70s have had the jab.

Given the resistance level, should we be moving towards mandatory vaccinations enforced by the law? Of course, any such move opens up an incalculable number of issues, but it is worth pondering a few to get some clarity.

For the record, I am vehemently pro-vaccination because of the role vaccination has played and continues to play in converting the pandemic into an epidemic. Nonetheless, I'm agnostic on mandating vaccines because this sets an uncomfortable precedent.

Also, let's be clear that mandating people get vaccinated is coercion. And yet other factors are at play, including moral responsibility, body autonomy, the context of the coercion, the consequences of the coerced action and the greater good.

While it is true that some forms of coercion are more unpalatable than others, it isn't easy to see that there can be a proper distinction drawn in this way. This is because all pressure relies on overcoming an individual's withholding of consent by applying some form of restrictions on their private life or ability to take part in public life.

Untangling these issues isn't straightforward. As a start point, we often hear that the un-vaccinated impinge on the rights of the vaccinated because they expose all of us to greater risk. This debate is nothing new. It arose with other vaccines and in the issue of smoking.

On the citizenship front, despite claims of being individuals, in truth, we are all part of a larger entity. We couldn't exist without the people around us. They drive the buses that get us to work, man the supermarkets, bring our food to town and clean up our waste. Thus the responsible-citizen argument holds that we owe it to those around us, who make our life possible, to comply for the greater good.

Often we are silently compelled to comply. When in Tokyo, I'd never jaywalk because nobody does, and I don't want the shame of being the uncouth foreigner. A hidden hand holds me back from dashing over an empty road. Then back in Hong Kong, the hand is lifted, so I'll take my chances and cross that road on red.

Legal approaches to increasing vaccination rates range from the most coercive—actual physical force, e.g., police coming to people's houses to vaccinate them—to least coercive, such as sanctions on access to places.

The WHO acknowledges that mandating vaccines restricts individual choice in 'non-trivial' ways and advises that they should not be the first resort.

The United States is one of many countries with a long history of using school mandates to increase vaccination rates. No vaccine, no school. US courts have consistently upheld these mandates against claims that rights are violated.

Then, again, this week, the US Supreme Court struck down a Covid vaccination-or-testing mandate for large businesses. The Court's conservative justices claimed the order is "a significant encroachment into lives."

The European Court of Human Rights suggests compulsory vaccination is permissible to protect the vulnerable. They concluded that such mandates are a justifiable interference.

Hence, Italy and France impose fines on parents who do not vaccinate their children. In France, jail time is a potential consequence, although rarely happens.

In the UK, estimates are that 73,000 NHS staff are declining the vaccine and could lose their jobs under mandatory provisions. This reluctance is against a background of staff shortages, including 36,000 nursing vacancies. Add poor staff morale atop that, and any vaccine mandate will cause a collapse in services.

But why are so many NHS staff reluctant? For starters, medical staff are taught that body autonomy is a cornerstone of their profession; they can't do anything to a patient without permission. So to then demand they act under a mandate flies in the face of everything they stand for.

Others express concern about the mandate's impact on employment terms and conditions. However, the view is that if the government can force this on NHS staff, then what next?

Given the staff shortages, it appears unlikely the UK government can force through any mandate. So it has quietly dropped the idea. Hong Kong faces similar challenges with medical staff, which will constrain the government's options.

What do our friends, the philosophers, say on the topic? Can we get any guidance from them? While it is impossible to take in the full breadth of their opinion, let us dip a toe in the water.

Aristotle (384BC) identified that we need to live with each other and find balance by interacting well with those around us in a well-ordered political state. He opined that we need to fit in with our society, just like me in Tokyo.

Thomas Aquinas (1225-74) advocated coercion/compulsion by state and private entities when it served a greater good. Later thinkers such as Thomas Hobbes (1588-1679), in basic agreement with Aquinas, argued that coercion plays a central, justified and necessary part in the functioning of the state.

Although hating what he called " the tyranny of the majority ", the great Victorian philosopher John Stuart Mill (1806-73) refines matters for us. He opines state coercion is justified as it conforms to the "harm principle." Thus, pressure is warranted when it prevents harm; similarly, force is justified if it punishes those who cause harm.

Not all are in agreement with these positions. For example, in Kant's view (1724-1804), coercion is wrong because the person coerced could not consent. In that sense, he is an absolutist.

In this discussion, I've ignored the postmodern philosophers because they've rejected science and all its exemplary deeds as subjective. Instead, they place feelings at the root of all values, devaluing logic and seeking to seed discontent. As a result, they've implanted much of the cultural malaise gripping western societies in many ways.

Chinese philosophers take the consensus view that citizens must act for the greater good; "the needs of the many eclipse the needs of the few". Although, Confucius held that "Never impose on others what you would not choose for yourself." 己所不欲，勿施於人.

Underpinning Chinese thinking is the concept of lǐ (禮); doing the proper thing at the appropriate time; balancing between maintaining existing norms to develop an ethical social fabric, and violating the rules to do moral good.

We can see that the Western philosophers and their Chinese counterparts broadly agree that if coercion benefits the majority without undue harm to the few, it is justified.

Now, where does all this leave us? Well, there is undoubtedly a legal precedent for mandating vaccinations. In addition, we have support from the great men of philosophy if we cherry-pick our advice.

I suppose it comes back on the adage that rights confer responsibilities. These responsibilities are to yourself, your immediate family, friends and the wider community. When you make your choices, you must accept the consequences.

In the end, I tend to favour vaccine coverage achieved by rational persuasion, not compulsion. But, equally, those who resist reasonable influence and have no legitimate reason not to be vaccinated must accept restrictions, such as access to venues and workplaces.

After all, the majority have acknowledged and respected the right to opt-out, now be ready to accept the wider community's interest to protect itself.

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23/1/2022 0 Comments

Groundhog Day

"The problem with a zero-Covid policy is that Hong Kong will need to open the door to the world or face economic collapse."

Is that light at the end of the Covid tunnel or an Omicron train coming the other way? As Hong Kong approaches the second anniversary of Covid-19, it is starting to feel like groundhog day. A surge in cases sees buildings locked down as we scramble to maintain a zero-Covid policy.

But unfortunately, that approach is looking harder to keep. The Omicron variant is proving challenging to defeat because of easy transmission, plus I suspect public fatigue is a factor after two years of fighting the virus.

Hence, Omicron is exposing gaps in our defences. But on the other hand, Omicron is much milder and unlikely to cause serious health consequences. That must drive a policy change.

For example, New Zealand had a zero-Covid policy until October 2021, when hit with a wave of Delta infections it could not suppress. It then adopted a traffic-light system of restrictions. Of course, Hong Kong's policy is dependent on how the Mainland fights Covid. So while China maintains a zero-Covid stance, Hong Kong is duty-bound to do the same.

Yet as the rest of the world opens up, Hong Kong remains isolated. The boundary with the Mainland is not fully open, to the frustration of many families and businesses. Arrivals at the airport face quarantine and a battery of tests.

And while Carrie Lam, our Chief Executive, would like to open up, she has little say in the matter.

Accordingly, the only clear way out is through vaccinations, yet many older folks remain reluctant. For the over 80 cohort the rate remains stubbornly below 30 percent.

So while our government is hyper-concerned with one risk - the threat of Covid - it appears somewhat oblivious to others. For example, the restrictions on cargo pilots illustrate a point. Covid precautions have reduced the number of cargo flights, leading to possible shortages in medicines and other essentials.

Also, food prices are predicted to rise because Hong Kong relies on a stretched logistic industry to import 90% of stuff consumed here.

We know the government is measuring the number of Covid cases. Yet, it is not clear that anyone is assessing the number of extra cancers and other ailments due to the disruptions in medical care. On the same score, the mental health impact of measures such as lockdowns and culling pets are blithely ignored.

The problem with a zero-Covid policy is that Hong Kong will need to open the door to the world or face economic collapse. Moreover, any Covid out there may flood in once the door is open. All this begs the question, what is the long-term strategy? Is anyone mapping out our exit from the zero-Covid game, or are we at the mercy of fate?

Meanwhile, on the PR front, the government appears to have learnt little from the thrashing of 2019, when fast-acting media-savvy groups spread false news on the Internet. The administration's analogue media machine couldn't keep up, allowing narrative-shaping based on rumours.

To illustrate the point, once you decide to cull hamsters, officials should have spoken of their sorrow and remorse at the necessary actions. Instead, we heard clinical statements and condescending put-downs about being emotional.

The Hong Kong people are generally a compliant lot, yet the hamster saga stretched patience. The jury of public opinion is still out on whether the right decision was taken. However, the government is adamant that finding one case of an infected hamster is good enough.

Yet evidence from veterinarians and studies from elsewhere suggests that the risk of animal/human transfer is minimal, putting the government on the back foot.

Also, people noted that Singapore and other jurisdictions had screening arrangements that detected the risk posed by pets. That our government missed this possible route of infection speaks to the group-think.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, there is a need for a 'Red Team' to critique procedures and policies.

On a more positive note, as the table below shows, Hong Kong has done a tremendous job in keeping the death rate so low. Likewise, according to The Economist's excess-mortality tracker, which estimates the actual toll of the Covid-19, Hong Kong is a leader.

Moreover, we fended off the Delta variant until recently, doing much better than Australia, New Zealand, or Singapore. That must deserve applause and recognition.

Getting back to the long-term. It is time for a Covid Commission or a dedicated think-tank to map out how we transition from zero-Covid and seek a return to normalcy.

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19/1/2022 0 Comments

Carrie's Hamster Hell

"Phrases such as ‘hamster holocaust’ and ‘genocide’ are over the top, however indicative of public sentiment."

Carrie Lam has another PR disaster on her hands, and again, it is of her making. Sure, no matter how you package it, culling 2000 plus pet hamsters was never going to be an easy sell. But then rushing the decision while admitting you are not sure that the hamsters transmitted the virus to humans was bound to produce an over-reaction from the public.

One hamster owner stated, "If people who attended Witman Hung's birthday party are culled, then I will hand my hamster to the government." Oh dear! Phrases such as ‘hamster holocaust’ and ‘genocide’ are over the top, however indicative of public sentiment.

The SPCA expressed shock at the government decision noting, "it did not take animal welfare and human-animal bonding into consideration."

A veterinary scholar called the government's decision "super harsh" and expressed fears that it could lead to mass abandonment of animals. Also, we know Covid has brought much mental strain to the populace, with pets providing a degree of comfort for many. To remove that support invites more mental health issues. Was that factor considered?

We've long learned that Carrie can't summon up much in the way of empathy. Yet, if any occasion called for a display of sympathy, then this was it. And what did we get is silence. Finally, a few lesser officials muttered contrite words, then soon moved on.

The hamster 'holocaust' has brought the Internet to life with innovative memes, none of which are kind to Carrie. But, in the longer term, if hamster to human transmission is established, appropriate protocols can minimise the risks. Yet, the US Centre for Disease Control already advises that the risk of pet to human transfer is low.

So, this morning kids across Hong Kong say a tear-filled farewell to Hamish the hamster, who is conveyed to a killing centre based on weak science and a knee jerk reaction. The question everyone is asking, which species is next?

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