Winners & Losers? Neither!

"Some are asking, who won and lost? To me, that's the wrong approach." 

With the anniversary of the 2019 extradition bill protests and riots upon us, the media is full of deliberations. Some are asking, who won and lost? To me, that's the wrong approach. Given the staggering complexity of the events, the number of players and their agendas, the best we can hope for is an interim understanding. After all, the game is still in play.

Between June 2019 and May 2020, Police arrested 8,981 people for various protest related offences. In dispersing rioters, officers fired 16,223 rounds of tear smoke, plus over 10,000 rubber bullets, sponge grenades and beanbag rounds. On 19 occasions officers used live ammunition. No protester was killed by police action.

Yet, we know there are some losers. The kids in jail, those fretting about court appearances, divided families — these folks lost. They've lost sleep, lost family unity and lost money to defend a kid in court. The protest movements promise of legal aid soon evaporated for minor players as funds ran out. Only the 'star' protesters, those who garner international media attention, merited support. Meanwhile, the foot-soldiers, who did much of the fighting with the Police, are now on their own. Only Mum and Dad are there to bail them out. 

The Police suffered a great deal but didn't falter. Facing an unprecedented level of coordinated violence at work and home, nowhere was safe for officers. Some 550 officers were hurt: one was slashed on the neck, an arrow shot another, and a third had part of a finger bitten off.

At the same time, Police children faced unprofessional teachers, who brought politics into the classroom, even at the kindergarten level. These kids will carry the mental scars of abuse at the hands of these teachers for years to come. 

Ironically the attacks on police homes rebounded. Officers saw the threat posed by the protest movement to their families, and with their back to the wall, they galvanised into a single entity. Then, under the bold leadership of Commissioner Chris Tang, that process accelerated. The result is confident and resolute officers prepared to maintain 'law and order.' Any talk of defeating the Police on the streets is nonsense.

Then the mantra of Hong Kong police brutality fell mute given the unfolding events in the US. Rational people recognised that while the Hong Kong Police Force didn't always get it right, they've proved far more professional than their US counterparts. It's especially pleasing to see the baleful cries from Washington politicians exposed as gross affected piety. 

Our once-respected Judiciary also took a beating. Allegations of bias by judges came in from all sides. And as consequence, the Chief Justice had to remove judges from certain cases. The fact that the Bar Association turned political didn't help matters. With many in the legal fraternity displaying their political stance, faith in the system will continue to face jeopardy. None of this is healthy. There is general agreement that the Judiciary will need to exercise greater caution in future to avoid the appearance of being partisan. 

Perhaps the biggest losers, in the long run, will be the Pan Dem politicians who over-played their hand and gave tacit support to the violence. Their antics in LegCo legitimised terrible behaviour. Besides, their silence on protester violence made them complicit in murder, burnings and rioting. Until the Pan Dems signal a willingness to forego violence, their reputation is stained with blood. 

With Beijing forced to step in, the Pan Dems brought to their door the very thing they feared the most. Many of us think they only have themselves to blame. In the process, they've left Beijing deeply suspicious of Hong Kong, by giving foreign powers leverage with which to attack China. Folks in Washington and London see the Pan Dems as a useful tool. But with the national security legislation, in future the Pan Dems will need to step carefully when summoning up foreign help. 

In the process, we will hear screams of faux-horror with predictions for the end of Hong Kong. This 'dooms-day' rhetoric is all the Pan Dems have left to offer. 

I suspect the Pan Dems most significant loss is yet to come. In September, using disqualification, I predict certain Pan Dems will face a ban from standing in the LegCo election. Many of them supported independence; thus, there is plenty of evidence to use for disqualification. By this approach, the pro-government forces will keep a majority in LegCo. 

If we wish to see anyone as a winner in this struggle, you could opt for Taiwan. Arguably the strife in Hong Kong played into the narrative 'you can't trust Beijing’ that Tsai Ing-wen exploits to ruthless effect. She's savvy, yet cunning. While offering words of support to Hong Kong protesters, she also cut off their escape route to Taiwan. 

Those seeking to interfere in Hong Kong affairs, especially from the US and UK, had some traction until Covid-19 kicked in. "They haven't got a clue in the US how to deal with this, at least the Hong Kong government is on the ball". That's from an American friend who rushed to the US as Covid-19 kicked-off in January 2020, then fled back to Hong Kong in March. The recent riots in the US affirmed her view that the US is like "the last days of Rome." That's an amplification that covers a greater truth: Trump's 'clown-world' government is slipping.

Thus, as the world fumbles for a way out of the Covid-19 crisis and protests rattle Trump's windows, Hong Kong faded from the international news coverage. The protest movement relied on the global media to garner support that they hoped would pressure Beijing. 

I have no doubt that in future the West will adopt a more cautious attitude towards China. This is driven by a multitude of factors rather than Hong Kong issues alone. You can see that Hong Kong is a pawn in a bigger game. That's why empty gestures like the BNO 'right of abode' offer from the UK ring hollow.

So, in summary, Hong Kong remains a deeply polarised society. The inescapable truth is that China out-maneuvered the Pan Dems with the National Security laws. The threat of these laws and police action are damping down violent protests. Of course, none of that resolves the underlying political and societal issues. 

But a period of relative calm may open the space for rational discussion. We can only hope that moderate people step forward because the playbook of filibuster, violent protest and attack is a dead-end street.