The Decline of the West? Maybe.

"Spengler's view of history is deeply pessimistic, and he suggests that the decline of Western civilisation is already well underway."

The return of geopolitics, catapulted forward by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will reshape world economic activity, alliances and the standing of nations for decades to come. I've discussed some of these issues in this companion article, which explores the sort of world that will emerge as the power of the U.S. wanes, but does not disappear, while China and India rise. 

Moreover, the fact that the global South hasn't embraced the West's narrative on Ukraine is also a significant feature of the new emerging world order. Making unfavourable comparisons to the Iraq and Afghanistan invasions, they ask what is the difference?   

With so much change and confusion, many pundits grasping for comprehension of these events have sought refuge in the works of German philosopher and polymath Oswald Spengler (May 1880-May 1936).

Spengler's best-known work,"The Decline of the West", is a fascinating and controversial piece that offers a unique perspective on the history of human civilisation. Published in two volumes in 1918 and 1922, the book presents a view of cyclical rather than linear history and argues that every culture and civilisation has a life cycle that follows a predictable pattern of growth, maturity, decline, and eventual death.

At its core, "The Decline of the West" critiques the Enlightenment belief in progress and the idea that human society steadily improves over time. Spengler argues that this view is fundamentally flawed and that history is not a steady march towards progress and Enlightenment but a series of cycles of growth and decline. 

He suggests that every culture and civilisation has a unique "morphology" determining its destiny. As a result, each one will eventually reach a stage of decline and decay, no matter how advanced or successful it may be in its prime. 

Spengler's view of history is deeply pessimistic, and he suggests that the decline of Western civilisation is already well underway. He argues that the West has reached the final stage of its life cycle and is now in a state of irreversible decline. 

He asserts this came about because the West has lost touch with its roots and traditions and is now dominated by a soulless and materialistic culture devoid of any real meaning or purpose. Thus, it is easy to see why those who despair at the state of American and European societies see resonance in Spengler's ideas. 

According to Spengler, the West's decline began in the late 19th century, as it became increasingly dominated by the forces of rationalism and materialism. Spengler drew on Nietzsche's idea that, "God is dead, and we killed him." 

He suggests that the West has lost its spiritual and creative vitality and that a consumerism and mass production culture now dominates. 

Moreover, he argues that this culture is fundamentally shallow and empty and incapable of producing great works of art, literature, or philosophy. Anyone who has seen a recent Hollywood movie would agree.

For sure, something strange has indeed happened in the ethical atmosphere of the 21st-century West. A century has passed since the masses accepted Christianity as setting the norms in morality, the foundations of culture, law and values. Even fifty years ago, most people in the West thought marriage was the best instrument for social stability and for bringing up children and was solely a union between a man and a woman. That has changed—likewise, attitudes towards euthanasia.

In 2013 Putin said, "We see many Euro-Atlantic countries are actually rejecting their roots, including the Christian values that constitute the basis of Western civilisation. They deny moral principles and all traditional identities: national, cultural, religious and even sexual."

That may explain why Putin enjoys some tacit support from the Christian right in America. Should Trump or DeSantis gain the Whitehouse, it will interesting to see if robust U.S. support Ukraine continues. 

Some scholars argue that Spengler's cyclical view of history is too simplistic and fails to account for human civilisation's complex and unpredictable nature. Others say his ideas are too dark and pessimistic and offer little hope or inspiration for the future. 

In this regard, it is worth remembering that Spengler formulated his ideas during and in the aftermath of World War One, as German society collapsed and convulsed. Moreover, he wasn't witness to the ability of Western cultures to reinvent themselves.

For example, the U.S. has shown an ability to adapt to the structural shifts and the increasing regionalisation of the world order. Atop that it continues to lead the world in its ability to adapt to, incorporate and develop new systems and new technologies.

Despite these criticisms, Spengler's work continues to be widely read and debated today, and it has significantly impacted many fields. For example, his influence can be seen in the study of cultural evolution, which has become an increasingly important field in recent years.

Spengler's ideas have also influenced the development of authoritarian and fascist political movements. These movements have been critical of liberal democracy, emphasising the importance of solid leadership and a centralised state. They have also been critical of the Enlightenment's emphasis on individualism and have argued that the needs of the community should take precedence over the needs of the individual.

It is important to note, however, that Spengler himself did not advocate for any specific political ideology or movement. Instead, he was a cultural pessimist who was critical of both liberalism and Marxism.

Whether one agrees with his ideas or not, it is impossible to ignore the profound impact that his work has had on our understanding of history, culture, and civilisation.