The Cure May Kill

"Never forget that Hong Kong’s economic lifeblood is the constant flow of people, services and capital to the Mainland."

Is Hong Kong in the grip of collective madness? People are feigning death on public transport, in an attempt to pressure the government. As if we don’t have enough hyperventilating with queues for face-masks and a run on hand disinfectant. 

Hysteria is the real virus. The infection soon evolves into an epidemic of xenophobia, racist stereotyping and discrimination. 

To add to the fun, some medical staff are on strike. Members of a new union want a complete border shutdown. Dropping any sense of common decency, they are using the sick as a weapon. This strike has nothing to do with genuine concerns over public health. Instead, it’s a naked political initiative, an adjunct to the rioting and unrest we’ve experienced. 

Seizing the opportunity of the virus outbreak, the Pan-Dems are causing the most considerable embarrassment to Carrie Lam. On the back of their district council election success, they’ve formed federations in various trades aimed at platforms for activism.

This approach mimics the ‘united front’ tactics of the pro-government lobby. It’s telling that commanding the new medical union is an ex-Cathay Pacific stewardess, who faced dismissal last year for her militant behaviour.

Whether this ethically dubious strike action will succeed is doubtful. The strikers are in the minority as the bulk of decent civic-minded doctors and nurses are reporting for duty. To them leveraging the suffering of the old and the sick to a political end is despicable.

On a more sinister note, a bombing campaign is underway. Last night (February 4) a bomb detonated in a public library toilet. Over the weekend, similar devices at Lo Wu station caused rail disruptions. Fortunately, we’ve had no injuries. 
What is clear from all this is the deep well of mistrust, bordering on hatred, of the government.

At this time, no doubt, some are keen to exploit the unfolding crisis to drive a deeper wedge between Hong Kong and Beijing. In the process, they’re stoking xenophobia that in any other society would be found unconscionable. 

Yet, in the bizarre context of modern Hong Kong, such blind prejudice is the norm. It’s as if people here, with self-assigned victimhood, wrap themselves in bitterness and faux suffering. Plus, all their woes are attributed to the Mainland. 

But, very few overseas people make the distinction between Hong Kongers and the Mainlanders. Right now, with people of Chinese race suffering isolation and prejudice abroad, locals are feeding a beast that will, in turn, bite them. Before long, those disagreeable sentiments must come home. See how you like it then.

The xenophobia sits at odds with the story of Hong Kong’s economic rise and success. The hard truth is that Hong Kong and the Mainland are in a symbiotic relationship. No China, no prosperous Hong Kong — simple as that. 

Never forget that Hong Kong’s economic lifeblood is the constant flow of people, services and capital to the Mainland. Thus the closure of the border — partial or otherwise — must have a severe economic impact.

The tourist industry is already in dire straits. Reports suggest as many of 40% in that sector face redundancy, with a knock-on impact across support industries to follow. Cathay Pacific is sending staff on unpaid leave.
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With a panicked public staying at home, our vast food and beverage industry is next to take a hit. This industry has one outlet for every 300 people, one of the highest ratios in the world. Closures with layoffs are inevitable.

It’s striking that the people demanding a total border closure operate under the misconception that Hong Kong can stand alone. Nothing could be further from the truth. As 90% of our food supply gets imported, we are, in the parlance of the emergency planners — ‘food-vulnerable’. 

Sixty-five years ago, we could provide two-thirds of our consumed vegetables. Today the figure is 2%. China produces the bulk of our meat and vegetables, while most fruit arrives from Thailand or the Philippines. This dependence exposes us to existential threats, such as price fluctuations or drops in supply. 

No less important, we rely on the Mainland for a good part of our electricity and water supply. In a good year, with substantial rainfall, Hong Kong could survive on local capacity. That’s assuming rationing and supply controls. The easy access to freshwater would evaporate. 

On the power front, Hong Kong’s electric grid interlinks with Shenzhen, with supplies moving either way as demand dictates. At certain times of the day and year, Hong Kong relies on the Mainland for about half of its electricity. 

We take natural gas piped in from Hainan to fire up generators that provide about a quarter of our electricity supply. Another quarter comes from the Daya Bay Nuclear Power Station. The rest is from imported coal.

In 2014, during Occupy, resentment circulated online in China over the treatment of Mainlanders here. Calls to cut off the water and power enjoyed some support. To be clear, Beijing has never threatened to pull the plug on water, food, or electricity. The leaders in Beijing are too politically astute. 

Unfortunately, the activists in Hong Kong, who appear hellbent on isolation, don’t have that savvy. Listening to them, the consequences are irrelevant. It reinforces my long-held view that the often predicted ‘end of Hong Kong’ would not come at the hands of Beijing. 

Instead, the local people will ring the death-knell as they claim to protect this place. With judgement clouded by deep-seated anxieties, they see the Mainland in the most sinister light. This fear has plausible roots, given the scars of SARS and China’s recent history, but it is overblown.

Nobody should doubt that Beijing wishes for Hong Kong to succeed. There is no upside for them if this place goes under. Conversely, the inconvenient truth remains that in seeking to wrest some control from Beijing, people face an opponent who only acts on its terms. 

Having said that, Hong Kong holds some cards. These advantages stand true even as Hong Kong’s importance in the national GDP figures slips from about 20% in 1997 to some 2% today. This raw data only tells a partial story. Beneath the surface, the skills, knowledge and hard-earned capital of Hong Kong entrepreneurs drove China’s advance. 

Even so, events on the Mainland will dictate Hong Kong’s future. A harsh reality of geography and resources dependency mandate this outcome.

​Nonetheless, it is my firm belief that the freedoms that Hong Kong takes for granted can be held secure against the systems and mindset that prevails on the Mainland.

​If rational minds prevail, accommodation is possible within the ‘one-country, two-systems’ concept. After, all, the shadow of the future is long, and it arrives in 2047. 

Finally, can someone cut Hong Kong some slack? If we survive the triple whammy of a US/China trade war, social unrest and the Wuhan virus, even a rationalist like me may burn a joss stick or two.

Walter's Plank of the Week

On a lighter note, I announce Walter’s inaugural ‘Plank of the Week’ award. This week it is a toss-up between the Hong Kong Labour Department and Metallicman. 

Contender One :

A Labour Department advisory stated domestic helpers should spend their rest day at home to help contain the Wuhan virus. Odd that no similar condition gets imposed on their employers. Moreover, this amounts to a de-facto cancelling of the Amah’s rest day. Sitting around a home, most will be obliged to work. But the Labour Department still thought it acceptable to send the Amah to the market or to have them line-up for face-masks. Plus, this advice contradicts the guidance of the Centre for Disease Control. Another example of government buffoons not thinking or communicating. 

Contender Two:

Metallicman in a blog has written a lengthy piece on the Wuhan virus. Let me summarise; the US is using drones to spread the virus across China. Before reading it, please fit your tinfoil hat and play the theme from the X-Files. 

The Winner: 

Metallicman for the sheer audacity of his blog. His liberal use of stills from disaster movies and abundant ‘facts’ lend the piece some authentic qualities. That is until you scratch the surface. He can collect his award at the top of Violet Hill on Friday, February 7, at 1500 hours. I’ll post pictures next week.