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  • Walter's Blog.
  • Home
  • Introduction
  • About Walter
    • 1980 Joining Up - Grafton Street >
      • Arrival and First Impressions
      • First Week
      • Training
      • Passing Out
    • Yaumati Cowboy >
      • Getting on the Streets
      • Tempo of the City
      • Jumpers, pill poppers and the indoor BBQ
      • Into a Minefield.
    • Why Tango in Paris, when you can Foxtrot in Kowloon? >
      • Baptism By Fire
      • Kai Tak with Mrs Thatcher.
      • Home; The Boy Returns
  • 1984 - 1986
    • PTU Instructor & Getting Hitched
    • Having a go: SDU
    • Starting a Chernobyl family
    • EOD - Don't touch anything
    • Semen Stains and the rules
  • 1987 to 1992 - Should I Stay or Go?
    • Blue Lights, Sirens & Grenades
    • Drugs, Broken Kids & A Plane Crash
    • 600 Happy Meals Please!
    • Hong Kong's Best Insurance
    • Riding the Iron Horse
  • Crime in Hong Kong
    • Falling Crime Rates - Why?
    • Triads
  • History of Hong Kong Policing
    • History 1841 to 1941
    • History 1945 to 1967
    • Anatomy of the 50 cent Riot - 1966
    • The Fall of a Commissioner.
    • History 1967 to 1980
    • Three Wise Men from the West
    • The Blue Berets.
    • The African Korps and other tribes.
    • Getting About - Transport.
    • A Pub in every station
    • Bullshit Bingo & Meetings
    • Godber - The one who nearly got away.
    • Uncle Ho
  • Top 20 Films
    • 2001 - A Space Odyssey.
    • The Godfather.
    • Blade Runner
    • Kes
    • Star Wars
    • Aliens
    • Ferris Bueller's Day Off
    • The Life of Brian
    • Dr Strangelove.
    • Infernal Affairs
    • Bridge on the River Kwai.
    • This Is Spinal Tap.
    • Chung King Express
    • An Officer and a Gentleman
    • PTU
    • Contact
    • Saving Private Ryan
    • Family Guy Star Wars
    • Zulu
    • Hard Day's Night
  • The Long Read
    • How The Walls Come Down
    • War in Ukraine - the narrative and other stuff.
    • The Hidden Leader
    • The Big Game
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Walter's Blog

"But how can you live and have no story to tell?" Fyodor Dostoevsky
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Reflections on recent events, plus the occasional fact free rant unfiltered by rational argument. 

"If you want to read a blog to get a sense of what is going on in Hong Kong these days or a blog that would tell you wh at life was like living in colonial Hong Kong, this blog, WALTER'S BLOG, fits the bill."  Hong Kong Blog Review

24/1/2021 0 Comments

Silver Lining

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"We need to balance the risks of Covid-19 against a multitude of other consequences caused by our response."
Here we go again. A couple of city blocks in Kowloon are now in temporary lock-down as another spike in Covid-19 takes hold. Residents are undergoing testing to stem this new cluster. Crowded tenements, with sub-divided flats, is the ideal breeding ground for the virus. I'm surprised we've not seen more such clumps of cases.

As the graph below shows, we've had ups and downs throughout the year. Unless I'm missing something, reviewing the data makes it challenging to correlate the surges and drops in cases to specific measures. Yes, I agree wearing masks helps, and social distancing must have an impact. Likewise, track and trace allied to quarantining carriers, cuts transmission rates. Whether the on/off dining restrictions, the closure of gyms and schools proved useful is debatable. 
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Yet, at times it feels like we are returning to the beginning. Interpreting all the data is a nightmare because the variables are so many, while the media doesn't help.

They'll seize upon something sensational to get a headline without explaining the proper context. For example, is the UK variant of Covid-19 really that much deadlier? 


The data is far from comprehensive, and the experts talk about a 'realistic possibility' that infection with the UK variant is associated with an increased risk of death. The term 'realistic possibility' has a specific meaning: they are between 40 to 50 % sure of their findings. In other words, we need more data to be certain. That nuance is lost on the media.

However, there are certain things we can say. Covid tends to kill older folks, especially those with secondary conditions. This factor is significant and let me illustrate why comparisons with previous pandemics are not always helpful. When the Hong Kong flu struck the UK in 1968, the average life expectancy was about 72 years. Today it's 81 years. You can immediately see that improvement creates a larger cohort of old folks to protect. Moreover, the average age of those dying with Covid in the UK is 82. 

In Hong Kong, the data shows similar patterns. HKU determines that the overall severity of Covid on the over 70s is nine times greater with a fatality rate of 14%. For the under-50s the fatality rate is 0.1%.

It's worth remembering that advances in medical care are keeping many critical patients alive. Again, in the past, these people would have died. That's why comparing today with 1918-20 or 1968 is not always helpful. Besides, the 1918-20 flu pandemic was unique, in that a disproportionate number of its victims were ages 15 and 44.

Likewise, saying one nation is doing better than another must factor in the population's general health. For example, in the US, obesity is pushing up death rates.

The pandemic will likely be with us for the remainder of 2021. Our politicians need to be upfront about that. The harsh truth is we need to balance the risks of Covid-19 against a multitude of other consequences caused by our response. While the economic impact is to the fore, the population's mental and physical health needs attending. Preventing people from exercising, socialising and confining them to small homes must be weighed up.

Let's face it; everyone is already tired of flip-flopping messages from our leaders. I have to say that the notion of zero Covid -19 cases is nonsense. With its strict lock-downs and a robust medical surveillance system, even China has seen outbreaks return.

We need to discuss the level of risk that society is prepared to accept—that conversation isn't happening. The political leadership must acknowledge these realities to stop painting a rosy picture to shore up their short-term popularity.  

On a more positive note, science is coming to our rescue. Covid-19 may prove the event that spurred the next revolution in vaccines, with profound positive consequences for humankind. 
​

Sorry, I can't help myself but have a dig at the lunatic fringe, who value opinions over objective truths and facts. Their subjective ways and homoeopathic horse-shit won't save us. What will come to the rescue are the scientists. At the forefront are the mRNA vaccines, doggedly enhanced this year these may yet prove capable of fighting all harmful viruses. 

Once genetic engineers sequence a virus, they can tweak mRNA vaccines to fire up the human immune system. Advances mean sequencing now takes days rather than months. We may soon have an all-purpose vaccine ready for deployment against hepatitis and even the common cold. 

Of course, the anti-vaccinationists can stay away. Instead, they can take advice from Karen on Facebook, a shaman, or some voodoo doctor. If and when a more deadly virus arrives, let nature take its course, and they'll be gone. That's the wonder of Darwinism.

My belief is that science will get us through Covid-19. But what will the post-Covid-19 world look like? No doubt some of our habits will evolve. People will continue to wear masks, especially on public transport and in other crowded locations. Awareness of fitness and general wellbeing will grow as people take up long-term healthy habits. Smokers must be ready to face even greater disapproval. 

There is also a debate around the virtues of dispersed working and the need for offices. Given the economic merits conferred by cities and direct human collaboration, I'm suggesting not much will change as attending a workplace confers advantages. It will take more than Covid-19 to reverse the trend of urbanisation. 

Sociologist and economists observed that the 1918-20 flu pandemic drove an upsurge in human creativity that swept through the 1920s. Massive building projects, technology innovations and the arts all received a boost. At this moment, someone is sitting in isolation, writing a groundbreaking thesis, a breathtaking film script or redefining music with a novel creation. Eventually, this stuff will emerge. 

We may yet see that Covid-19 herald another evolution of human advancement.
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    Walter De Havilland was one of the last of the colonial coppers. He served 35 years in the Royal Hong Kong Police and Hong Kong Police Force. He's long retired. 

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