Mobile Phones & Crime

A large body of evidence shows that long-term crime rates are declining. That’s not only in Hong Kong; it’s a trend seen across all modern societies.

​Surprisingly, no one has a coherent all-encompassing explanation of why. (Yes, I know knife crime is surging in the UK, and there are other blips out there.)

Like their predecessors, today’s senior police officers bask in the glory to claim their policies brought about the change. Uncomfortable as it is to state this, in reality, the police’s ability to influence global crime-trends is minimal.

Granted, short-term impacts in fixed areas are possible. Across the generations, societal factors are more critical ingredients.

A new intriguing study points to the emergence of mobile phones as pushing crime downwards. This study aroused my interest because it counters a conventional narrative.

During my time in the Hong Kong Police, it was common to view mobile phones as crime enablers. Driven out of sight by the technology, enforcement against certain crimes proved challenging. I’m sure that’s true.

Still, there is an upside and a bigger picture. Drug trafficking is a prime example. The study out of the USA suggests mobile phones helped reduce crime rates, including a 19 to 29 per cent decline in homicides from 1990 to 2000. 

Let’s examine this. In the past, drug traffickers needed to control territory to conduct their trade. That may be a street corner, a sector of a neighbourhood, a night club or a bar. This need for physical space brought opposing gangs into direct contact, with conflict as they vied for the ground.

With the arrival of the mobile phone, the need for transactions at fixed locations disappeared. Traffickers and users hooked up via messaging to arrange a drop.

​Thus, the gangs did not need ‘turf’ to dominate the drugs trade. The ‘turf’ moved to cyberspace, where a physical confrontation between rival gangs is impossible.

Also, the possibility of ‘robbery’ by rivals or opportunists decreased. With the traffickers on the move, taking out a competitor proved difficult.  In turn, the research established that the need for a large gang dissipated.  

With no turf to protect, fewer confrontations and scores to settle, a leaner business model emerged.

For the trafficker, the fixed location makes them vulnerable to enforcement action. Besides, the mobile phone benefited small-time operators. As a consequence, drug prices fell with increased competition. 

Your friendly neighbourhood drug dealer delivering to the door — pizza style — is an attractive option. Venturing out to gangland to buy drugs from a menacing thug does not appeal. In effect, it’s argued, the mobile phone gentrified the drug trafficking game. 

At first glance, the evidence in the US research is compelling. As the cell-phone network spread, researchers tracked changes in crime patterns. Drilling down into the data, specifically victim/culprit relationships, the link emerges. 

Yet, some researchers have come out to question this study as too simplistic. They assert the data is far from robust in establishing course and effect. For them, the evidence does not hold up across time, across cities, or across countries.

We know that Hong Kong has seen the disappearance of the ‘street traffickers’ except in entertainment areas.  Thus, it may be possible to conclude similar processes at work here. I’d like to see more data before affirming that.

My gut feeling — mobile phones have had negative impacts and some positives. Yes, nothing is exciting or novel in that assertion. And I know quantifying these effects with reliable statistics is tricky. The well-recognised unreliability of official crime statistics is part of the problem. 

What is certain is that these days, people can report incidents with ease, gather evidence by recording on phones and then share it. Add to that the deterrent impact.

​For example, as trouble flairs in a dispute, and a fight may occur, out come the phones to capture the moment. Seeing this, the adversaries sometimes back off. 

My conclusion, for what it’s worth, is that technology is making old-school crimes harder to commit. CCTV, facial-recognition, the tracking of movements and pattern spotting algorithms all help. 

​But fear not, bad guys are also harnessing that technology. The so-called computer-crimes, online frauds and the like, all herald that change. We need to remain vigilant. ​