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  • Walter's Blog.
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  • Introduction
  • About Walter
    • 1980 Joining Up - Grafton Street >
      • Arrival and First Impressions
      • First Week
      • Training
      • Passing Out
    • Yaumati Cowboy >
      • Getting on the Streets
      • Tempo of the City
      • Jumpers, pill poppers and the indoor BBQ
      • Into a Minefield.
    • Why Tango in Paris, when you can Foxtrot in Kowloon? >
      • Baptism By Fire
      • Kai Tak with Mrs Thatcher.
      • Home; The Boy Returns
  • 1984 - 1986
    • PTU Instructor & Getting Hitched
    • Having a go: SDU
    • Starting a Chernobyl family
    • EOD - Don't touch anything
    • Semen Stains and the rules
  • 1987 to 1992 - Should I Stay or Go?
    • Blue Lights, Sirens & Grenades
    • Drugs, Broken Kids & A Plane Crash
    • 600 Happy Meals Please!
    • Hong Kong's Best Insurance
    • Riding the Iron Horse
  • Crime in Hong Kong
    • Falling Crime Rates - Why?
    • Triads
  • History of Hong Kong Policing
    • History 1841 to 1941
    • History 1945 to 1967
    • Anatomy of the 50 cent Riot - 1966
    • The Fall of a Commissioner.
    • History 1967 to 1980
    • Three Wise Men from the West
    • The Blue Berets.
    • The African Korps and other tribes.
    • Getting About - Transport.
    • A Pub in every station
    • Bullshit Bingo & Meetings
    • Godber - The one who nearly got away.
    • Uncle Ho
  • Top 20 Films
    • 2001 - A Space Odyssey.
    • The Godfather.
    • Blade Runner
    • Kes
    • Star Wars
    • Aliens
    • Ferris Bueller's Day Off
    • The Life of Brian
    • Dr Strangelove.
    • Infernal Affairs
    • Bridge on the River Kwai.
    • This Is Spinal Tap.
    • Chung King Express
    • An Officer and a Gentleman
    • PTU
    • Contact
    • Saving Private Ryan
    • Family Guy Star Wars
    • Zulu
    • Hard Day's Night
  • The Long Read
    • How The Walls Come Down
    • War in Ukraine - the narrative and other stuff.
    • The Hidden Leader
    • The Big Game
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Walter's Blog

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Reflections on recent events, plus the occasional fact free rant unfiltered by rational argument. 

"If you want to read a blog to get a sense of what is going on in Hong Kong these days or a blog that would tell you wh at life was like living in colonial Hong Kong, this blog, WALTER'S BLOG, fits the bill."  Hong Kong Blog Review

31/5/2019 0 Comments

Mobile Phones & Crime

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A large body of evidence shows that long-term crime rates are declining. That’s not only in Hong Kong; it’s a trend seen across all modern societies.

​Surprisingly, no one has a coherent all-encompassing explanation of why. (Yes, I know knife crime is surging in the UK, and there are other blips out there.)


Like their predecessors, today’s senior police officers bask in the glory to claim their policies brought about the change. Uncomfortable as it is to state this, in reality, the police’s ability to influence global crime-trends is minimal.

Granted, short-term impacts in fixed areas are possible. Across the generations, societal factors are more critical ingredients.


A new intriguing study points to the emergence of mobile phones as pushing crime downwards. This study aroused my interest because it counters a conventional narrative.

During my time in the Hong Kong Police, it was common to view mobile phones as crime enablers. Driven out of sight by the technology, enforcement against certain crimes proved challenging. I’m sure that’s true.


Still, there is an upside and a bigger picture. Drug trafficking is a prime example. The study out of the USA suggests mobile phones helped reduce crime rates, including a 19 to 29 per cent decline in homicides from 1990 to 2000. 

Let’s examine this. In the past, drug traffickers needed to control territory to conduct their trade. That may be a street corner, a sector of a neighbourhood, a night club or a bar. This need for physical space brought opposing gangs into direct contact, with conflict as they vied for the ground.

With the arrival of the mobile phone, the need for transactions at fixed locations disappeared. Traffickers and users hooked up via messaging to arrange a drop.

​Thus, the gangs did not need ‘turf’ to dominate the drugs trade. The ‘turf’ moved to cyberspace, where a physical confrontation between rival gangs is impossible.


Also, the possibility of ‘robbery’ by rivals or opportunists decreased. With the traffickers on the move, taking out a competitor proved difficult.  In turn, the research established that the need for a large gang dissipated.  


With no turf to protect, fewer confrontations and scores to settle, a leaner business model emerged.

For the trafficker, the fixed location makes them vulnerable to enforcement action. Besides, the mobile phone benefited small-time operators. As a consequence, drug prices fell with increased competition. 

Your friendly neighbourhood drug dealer delivering to the door — pizza style — is an attractive option. Venturing out to gangland to buy drugs from a menacing thug does not appeal. In effect, it’s argued, the mobile phone gentrified the drug trafficking game. 


At first glance, the evidence in the US research is compelling. As the cell-phone network spread, researchers tracked changes in crime patterns. Drilling down into the data, specifically victim/culprit relationships, the link emerges. 

Yet, some researchers have come out to question this study as too simplistic. They assert the data is far from robust in establishing course and effect. For them, the evidence does not hold up across time, across cities, or across countries.

We know that Hong Kong has seen the disappearance of the ‘street traffickers’ except in entertainment areas.  Thus, it may be possible to conclude similar processes at work here. I’d like to see more data before affirming that.

My gut feeling — mobile phones have had negative impacts and some positives. Yes, nothing is exciting or novel in that assertion. And I know quantifying these effects with reliable statistics is tricky. The well-recognised unreliability of official crime statistics is part of the problem. 

What is certain is that these days, people can report incidents with ease, gather evidence by recording on phones and then share it. Add to that the deterrent impact.

​For example, as trouble flairs in a dispute, and a fight may occur, out come the phones to capture the moment. Seeing this, the adversaries sometimes back off. 


My conclusion, for what it’s worth, is that technology is making old-school crimes harder to commit. CCTV, facial-recognition, the tracking of movements and pattern spotting algorithms all help. 

​But fear not, bad guys are also harnessing that technology. The so-called computer-crimes, online frauds and the like, all herald that change. We need to remain vigilant. 
​
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    Walter De Havilland was one of the last of the colonial coppers. He served 35 years in the Royal Hong Kong Police and Hong Kong Police Force. He's long retired. 

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