Groundhog Day

"The problem with a zero-Covid policy is that Hong Kong will need to open the door to the world or face economic collapse."

Is that light at the end of the Covid tunnel or an Omicron train coming the other way? As Hong Kong approaches the second anniversary of Covid-19, it is starting to feel like groundhog day. A surge in cases sees buildings locked down as we scramble to maintain a zero-Covid policy.

But unfortunately, that approach is looking harder to keep. The Omicron variant is proving challenging to defeat because of easy transmission, plus I suspect public fatigue is a factor after two years of fighting the virus. 

Hence, Omicron is exposing gaps in our defences. But on the other hand, Omicron is much milder and unlikely to cause serious health consequences. That must drive a policy change. 

For example, New Zealand had a zero-Covid policy until October 2021, when hit with a wave of Delta infections it could not suppress. It then adopted a traffic-light system of restrictions.  Of course, Hong Kong's policy is dependent on how the Mainland fights Covid. So while China maintains a zero-Covid stance, Hong Kong is duty-bound to do the same. 

Yet as the rest of the world opens up, Hong Kong remains isolated. The boundary with the Mainland is not fully open, to the frustration of many families and businesses. Arrivals at the airport face quarantine and a battery of tests.

And while Carrie Lam, our Chief Executive, would like to open up, she has little say in the matter.

Accordingly, the only clear way out is through vaccinations, yet many older folks remain reluctant. For the over 80 cohort the rate remains stubbornly below 30 percent.

So while our government is hyper-concerned with one risk - the threat of Covid - it appears somewhat oblivious to others. For example, the restrictions on cargo pilots illustrate a point. Covid precautions have reduced the number of cargo flights, leading to possible shortages in medicines and other essentials.

Also, food prices are predicted to rise because Hong Kong relies on a stretched logistic industry to import 90% of stuff consumed here.

We know the government is measuring the number of Covid cases. Yet, it is not clear that anyone is assessing the number of extra cancers and other ailments due to the disruptions in medical care. On the same score, the mental health impact of measures such as lockdowns and culling pets are blithely ignored. 

The problem with a zero-Covid policy is that Hong Kong will need to open the door to the world or face economic collapse. Moreover, any Covid out there may flood in once the door is open. All this begs the question, what is the long-term strategy? Is anyone mapping out our exit from the zero-Covid game, or are we at the mercy of fate?

Meanwhile, on the PR front, the government appears to have learnt little from the thrashing of 2019, when fast-acting media-savvy groups spread false news on the Internet. The administration's analogue media machine couldn't keep up, allowing narrative-shaping based on rumours. 

To illustrate the point, once you decide to cull hamsters, officials should have spoken of their sorrow and remorse at the necessary actions. Instead, we heard clinical statements and condescending put-downs about being emotional. 

The Hong Kong people are generally a compliant lot, yet the hamster saga stretched patience. The jury of public opinion is still out on whether the right decision was taken. However, the government is adamant that finding one case of an infected hamster is good enough.

Yet evidence from veterinarians and studies from elsewhere suggests that the risk of animal/human transfer is minimal, putting the government on the back foot. 

Also, people noted that Singapore and other jurisdictions had screening arrangements that detected the risk posed by pets. That our government missed this possible route of infection speaks to the group-think.

​At the risk of sounding like a broken record, there is a need for a 'Red Team' to critique procedures and policies.

On a more positive note, as the table below shows, Hong Kong has done a tremendous job in keeping the death rate so low. Likewise, according to The Economist's excess-mortality tracker, which estimates the actual toll of the Covid-19, Hong Kong is a leader. 

Moreover, we fended off the Delta variant until recently, doing much better than Australia, New Zealand, or Singapore. That must deserve applause and recognition. 

Getting back to the long-term. It is time for a Covid Commission or a dedicated think-tank to map out how we transition from zero-Covid and seek a return to normalcy.