"Why Tango in Paris, when you can Foxtrot in Kowloon?"
  • Walter's Blog.
  • Home
  • Introduction
  • About Walter
    • 1980 Joining Up - Grafton Street >
      • Arrival and First Impressions
      • First Week
      • Training
      • Passing Out
    • Yaumati Cowboy >
      • Getting on the Streets
      • Tempo of the City
      • Jumpers, pill poppers and the indoor BBQ
      • Into a Minefield.
    • Why Tango in Paris, when you can Foxtrot in Kowloon? >
      • Baptism By Fire
      • Kai Tak with Mrs Thatcher.
      • Home; The Boy Returns
  • 1984 - 1986
    • PTU Instructor & Getting Hitched
    • Having a go: SDU
    • Starting a Chernobyl family
    • EOD - Don't touch anything
    • Semen Stains and the rules
  • 1987 to 1992 - Should I Stay or Go?
    • Blue Lights, Sirens & Grenades
    • Drugs, Broken Kids & A Plane Crash
    • 600 Happy Meals Please!
    • Hong Kong's Best Insurance
    • Riding the Iron Horse
  • Crime in Hong Kong
    • Falling Crime Rates - Why?
    • Triads
  • History of Hong Kong Policing
    • History 1841 to 1941
    • History 1945 to 1967
    • Anatomy of the 50 cent Riot - 1966
    • The Fall of a Commissioner.
    • History 1967 to 1980
    • Three Wise Men from the West
    • The Blue Berets.
    • The African Korps and other tribes.
    • Getting About - Transport.
    • A Pub in every station
    • Bullshit Bingo & Meetings
    • Godber - The one who nearly got away.
    • Uncle Ho
  • Top 20 Films
    • 2001 - A Space Odyssey.
    • The Godfather.
    • Blade Runner
    • Kes
    • Star Wars
    • Aliens
    • Ferris Bueller's Day Off
    • The Life of Brian
    • Dr Strangelove.
    • Infernal Affairs
    • Bridge on the River Kwai.
    • This Is Spinal Tap.
    • Chung King Express
    • An Officer and a Gentleman
    • PTU
    • Contact
    • Saving Private Ryan
    • Family Guy Star Wars
    • Zulu
    • Hard Day's Night
  • The Long Read
    • How The Walls Come Down
    • War in Ukraine - the narrative and other stuff.
    • The Hidden Leader
    • The Big Game
  • Walter's Blog.
  • Home
  • Introduction
  • About Walter
    • 1980 Joining Up - Grafton Street >
      • Arrival and First Impressions
      • First Week
      • Training
      • Passing Out
    • Yaumati Cowboy >
      • Getting on the Streets
      • Tempo of the City
      • Jumpers, pill poppers and the indoor BBQ
      • Into a Minefield.
    • Why Tango in Paris, when you can Foxtrot in Kowloon? >
      • Baptism By Fire
      • Kai Tak with Mrs Thatcher.
      • Home; The Boy Returns
  • 1984 - 1986
    • PTU Instructor & Getting Hitched
    • Having a go: SDU
    • Starting a Chernobyl family
    • EOD - Don't touch anything
    • Semen Stains and the rules
  • 1987 to 1992 - Should I Stay or Go?
    • Blue Lights, Sirens & Grenades
    • Drugs, Broken Kids & A Plane Crash
    • 600 Happy Meals Please!
    • Hong Kong's Best Insurance
    • Riding the Iron Horse
  • Crime in Hong Kong
    • Falling Crime Rates - Why?
    • Triads
  • History of Hong Kong Policing
    • History 1841 to 1941
    • History 1945 to 1967
    • Anatomy of the 50 cent Riot - 1966
    • The Fall of a Commissioner.
    • History 1967 to 1980
    • Three Wise Men from the West
    • The Blue Berets.
    • The African Korps and other tribes.
    • Getting About - Transport.
    • A Pub in every station
    • Bullshit Bingo & Meetings
    • Godber - The one who nearly got away.
    • Uncle Ho
  • Top 20 Films
    • 2001 - A Space Odyssey.
    • The Godfather.
    • Blade Runner
    • Kes
    • Star Wars
    • Aliens
    • Ferris Bueller's Day Off
    • The Life of Brian
    • Dr Strangelove.
    • Infernal Affairs
    • Bridge on the River Kwai.
    • This Is Spinal Tap.
    • Chung King Express
    • An Officer and a Gentleman
    • PTU
    • Contact
    • Saving Private Ryan
    • Family Guy Star Wars
    • Zulu
    • Hard Day's Night
  • The Long Read
    • How The Walls Come Down
    • War in Ukraine - the narrative and other stuff.
    • The Hidden Leader
    • The Big Game
Search by typing & pressing enter

YOUR CART

Walter's Blog

"But how can you live and have no story to tell?" Fyodor Dostoevsky
Picture
Reflections on recent events, plus the occasional fact free rant unfiltered by rational argument. 

"If you want to read a blog to get a sense of what is going on in Hong Kong these days or a blog that would tell you wh at life was like living in colonial Hong Kong, this blog, WALTER'S BLOG, fits the bill."  Hong Kong Blog Review

29/4/2021 2 Comments

Fare-De-Well

Picture
"Good byes are not forever. They simply mean I will miss you until we meet again." Anon
Reports suggest that some 3,000 Hong Kongers a month apply for the BNO visa, which provides a route to United Kingdom citizenship. How many people will opt to move to the UK remains unknown. 

Covid travel restrictions and a 'wait and see' attitude may cause people to hold off on the final move. After all, opting to migrate is a heart-wrenching decision, fraught with emotional and financial challenges, especially for families with children. 

As I've before covered, there are pros and cons of moving to the UK. Some of the cons are now coming into focus.

Moreover, it has to be said, mass emigration from Hong Kong is nothing unusual. In the years before 1997, Hong Kong experienced waves of departures as sentiment fluctuated about the future. An estimated half a million emigrated between 1987 and 1996, with 66,200 leaving in 1992 alone. Once they'd secured overseas passports, many returned. Hence Hong Kong's large contingent of 'Canadian' citizens. 


Over time, the impact of departures from Hong Kong proved marginal. With a vast pool of talent on the Mainland, sourcing specialists is relatively easy. Besides, the city continues to draw top-notch expatriate talent. 

Of course, it makes perfect sense for the UK to attract hard-working Hong Kong folks. As a recent report on UK racism noted, every ethnic group performs better in the education stakes than the white working-class except the black Caribbean boys. And the top-performing group are the Chinese/Asian kids, who come supported by traditional solid family units. 

Thus, an influx of Hong Kong Chinese, whilst causing some initial economic costs and dislocation, in the long-term will benefit the country.  

Speaking last week to a professional couple, who are contemplating a move to the UK, it was clear they'd crunched the numbers. They could afford to buy a flat in a decent London borough, while their savings are enough to survive a couple of years. Yet, they'd failed to recognise one significant issue; the UK may not exist in ten years. 

In a lead article, last week's Economist asserted, "The bonds that hold England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland together are weaker than at any time in living memory." Scotland may be the first to heave away. Never forget that three in five Scots voted against Brexit. Also, a recent poll found that two-thirds of Scots under the age of 45 favour independence. 

From a distance, looking at the UK's political scene, I see no eminent person with a clear vision for the future of a 'united kingdom'; there exists no unifying force nor ideology that anchors the times to come. For starters, Prime Minister Boris Johnson lacks the appearance of seriousness, with a propensity for bluff and bluster. He's proven himself incompetent, although he seeks to bask in the reflected glory of the Covid vaccine rollout. 

Meanwhile, the opposition Labour Party is wandering the wilderness fighting amongst themselves. Keir Starmer, the Labour bossman is an asymptomatic leader: he's in charge, but show no signs.  Likely they won't see power again in decades. As a result, Johnson's Tory Party enjoys an unopposed run in parliament.

Into this gap steps Scotland's First Minister Nichola Sturgeon. Sturgeon presents independence for Scotland as the logical choice that gives a more egalitarian future for Scots. There is no ignoring the fact that her message has traction with all classes within Scotland. 

She enjoys renown for her deft handling of the messaging around Covid. That's despite Scotland suffering similar numbers of cases to England. Some suggest she's immune to criticism because the Scots detest the 'English' parliament to a greater degree than any of Sturgeon's failings. Maybe?

Moreover, it's significant that she's emerged from her recent troubles undiminished and resolute. That's despite all the media hype that had her finished. 


So, for now, the direction of travel is impossible to ignore. The Scottish question won't go away despite Johnson's attempts to ignore the matter. Barring a major upset, I predict that Scotland will get another chance to vote on independence within a couple of years. We will get a taste of sentiment during the elections on May 6th. If the outcome is a strong mandate for the Scottish National Party, separation looks more likely. 

Meanwhile, Brexit is reopening old wounds in Northern Ireland. Recent riots show that the underlying political sentiment remains delicate. As Brexit caused disruptions to trade, the loyalist community have grown fearful of separation from the Mainland. On the back of this, the nationalist community sees an opportunity to push for reunification with Ireland. These vexed questions may undo much of the progress achieved since the 1998 Good Friday Agreement. 

And while the situation in Wales is less volatile, if Scotland gains independence, that may change. 

During Covid, the UK as a single entity demonstrated some strengths. The vaccine rollout is a notable high-point. But, other aspects of national standing and infrastructure are looking rickety. 

Take defence as an example. There are more tanks in the Bovington Tank Museum than serving with the British Army. Then two aircraft carriers entered service without planes or an adequate number of escorts. The largest ships ever built for the Royal Navy account for more than half the defence budgets existing £13 billion deficit.

To top it all, wearing thin is the pretence of an independent nuclear deterrent. All the missiles come from the USA. Plus, should Scotland gain independence, the atomic subs may need to move to France or the USA because no other suitable bases are available. You have to acknowledge this is a mockery of a deterrent. As one military leader observed, "The British armed forces look increasingly like an echelon of the US military."  

With the full fallout from Covid and Brexit yet to play out, the UK's economic outlook is unsettled. Government borrowing is 14.5% of GDP, the highest level since World War II. If the anticipated post-Covid bounce occurs, the country can soon offset this borrowing. If not, the prospects are dicey. 

Above all, the question remains will the UK still exist as a single entity, or will it fragment?

Let's recognise that those seeking certainty outside Hong Kong may be entering a domain with equally problematic political issues. How Scotland's independence will work remains unclear. The politicians must address a vast array of matters; trade, borders, the military, diplomatic representation and basic stuff like energy supplies. 

That's worth reflecting on because the whispers in the wind are that the 'united kingdom' has run its course. And untangling from 1707 may make 1997 look easy.
2 Comments
Gloria Bing
30/4/2021 01:35:30 pm

"Let's recognise that those seeking certainty outside Hong Kong may be entering a domain with equally problematic political issues."

The break up of the UK will be the least of these peoples' worries. The underlying cultural issues currently ravaging the Western world - the crisis of liberal confidence, ethnic division, decaying social supports, a war on the very idea of law and order - are more likely to send them scurrying back to HK than whether or not the Scots break away their miniscule economy and promptly fall between the stools of an England that doesn't want them and a disintegrating EU which also isn't too keen on having a "Greece of the North" to support. As for missiles and tanks, I doubt that will ever be of any concern to them unless said missiles start falling on them or said tanks come rumbling up their street.

I have to stay I am starting to resent Scottish references to "independence". As they are currently part of a united kingdom, they can't be independent from themselves...

Reply
Chris Emmett
30/4/2021 10:32:06 pm

If Scotland wants to be independent then it must be independent. Same goes for Wales and the possible reunification of the island of Ireland. The breakup of the Union would be sad but in hard-headed financial terms, our taxation system sees Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales receive more from Her Majesty’s Treasury than they contribute in taxes. England would become richer; the other three nations poorer. Of course, like every independence movement, self determination trumps finance. We’ll see.

Reply

Your comment will be posted after it is approved.


Leave a Reply.

    Author

    Walter De Havilland was one of the last of the colonial coppers. He served 35 years in the Royal Hong Kong Police and Hong Kong Police Force. He's long retired. 

    RSS Feed

    Archives

    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017

Home

Introduction

Contact Walter

Copyright © 2015