Kill a Hen to frighten the Monkeys
"At 1834 hrs (Zulu), a 150-kiloton nuclear warhead detonates seven miles above the Hornsea 1 and 2 Wind farms located 55 miles offshore of East Yorkshire."
Preamble
The accepted narrative is that any use of nuclear weapons by Russia will invite an overwhelming and destructive response that will obliterate the country. But what if that narrative is wrong? The aim here is not be alarmist but rather to consider a plausible alternative scenario.
Scenario planning generates simulations of possible events for policymakers. The method combines known facts, such as demographics and geography, with military, political, and industrial information and key driving forces identified by considering social, technical, economic, environmental, and political ("STEEP") factors.
EMP is a line-of-sight phenomenon associated with the detonation of a nuclear warhead at a high altitude. The pulse that emanates can damage the circuitry of electronic components, especially those connected to long lead conductors like antennas and transmission lines. The result is damaged or destroyed electronic components. The consequences of EMP on the nation's infrastructure can be catastrophic.
Introduction
While some of the details of the attack by Russia on the U.K. in early 2025, and the eventual cessation of violence in Ukraine remain hidden, here is a record of the core timeline and events. Undoubtedly, more information will come to light in the months and years ahead.
The accepted narrative is that any use of nuclear weapons by Russia will invite an overwhelming and destructive response that will obliterate the country. But what if that narrative is wrong? The aim here is not be alarmist but rather to consider a plausible alternative scenario.
Scenario planning generates simulations of possible events for policymakers. The method combines known facts, such as demographics and geography, with military, political, and industrial information and key driving forces identified by considering social, technical, economic, environmental, and political ("STEEP") factors.
EMP is a line-of-sight phenomenon associated with the detonation of a nuclear warhead at a high altitude. The pulse that emanates can damage the circuitry of electronic components, especially those connected to long lead conductors like antennas and transmission lines. The result is damaged or destroyed electronic components. The consequences of EMP on the nation's infrastructure can be catastrophic.
Introduction
While some of the details of the attack by Russia on the U.K. in early 2025, and the eventual cessation of violence in Ukraine remain hidden, here is a record of the core timeline and events. Undoubtedly, more information will come to light in the months and years ahead.
Putin confers with his advisors
Setting the Scene.
It's mid-January 2025. A spectre is haunting Europe. Donald Trump has won another term as president. Expectations are high that he may abandon NATO and leave Europe to its fate. On the campaign trail, he made his position clear.
"This is a European war. Why are Americans paying for it? Why have we pushed Russia into a corner? I don't get it."
Steve Bannon, the architect of Trump's victory, made the thinking on Ukraine clear in an interview with Emily Maitles for the Newsagent Podcast on 5 March 2024.
"This a struggle between two Slavic nations.People here don't give a shit." He goes on, "Let me give you a history lesson. In World War II, America's main allies were Russia and China. Frankly, the British Royal Family and Lord Halifax wanted to cut a deal with Hitler to save your empire. You held back. That's why D-Day was delayed. Sure, you guys sacrificed. But we lost 500,000, you lost 450,000 trying to save your empire, and the Russians lost 24 million people. Give me a break. The Russian people are not our enemy."
Trump's inauguration is due on Monday, 21 January 2025. The outgoing President Biden remains in hospital following a stroke, while Vice President Pamala Harris is covering and acting in the role. Trump has called for Harris to step aside early, claiming she has no authority. In the eyes of many commentators, governance in the US has slowed to a virtual halt awaiting the arrival of Trump.
And with the war in Ukraine going nowhere, a protracted and costly stalemate is an unappealing prospect to all sides. But Putin is about to play his hand. He is about to test NATO's resolve.
The accepted narrative is that any use of nuclear weapons by Russia will invite an overwhelming and destructive response that will obliterate the country. But what if that narrative is wrong?
It's mid-January 2025. A spectre is haunting Europe. Donald Trump has won another term as president. Expectations are high that he may abandon NATO and leave Europe to its fate. On the campaign trail, he made his position clear.
"This is a European war. Why are Americans paying for it? Why have we pushed Russia into a corner? I don't get it."
Steve Bannon, the architect of Trump's victory, made the thinking on Ukraine clear in an interview with Emily Maitles for the Newsagent Podcast on 5 March 2024.
"This a struggle between two Slavic nations.People here don't give a shit." He goes on, "Let me give you a history lesson. In World War II, America's main allies were Russia and China. Frankly, the British Royal Family and Lord Halifax wanted to cut a deal with Hitler to save your empire. You held back. That's why D-Day was delayed. Sure, you guys sacrificed. But we lost 500,000, you lost 450,000 trying to save your empire, and the Russians lost 24 million people. Give me a break. The Russian people are not our enemy."
Trump's inauguration is due on Monday, 21 January 2025. The outgoing President Biden remains in hospital following a stroke, while Vice President Pamala Harris is covering and acting in the role. Trump has called for Harris to step aside early, claiming she has no authority. In the eyes of many commentators, governance in the US has slowed to a virtual halt awaiting the arrival of Trump.
And with the war in Ukraine going nowhere, a protracted and costly stalemate is an unappealing prospect to all sides. But Putin is about to play his hand. He is about to test NATO's resolve.
The accepted narrative is that any use of nuclear weapons by Russia will invite an overwhelming and destructive response that will obliterate the country. But what if that narrative is wrong?
The war in Ukraine is stalemate
An unexpected turn of events - 14 January 2025.
On 14 January 2025, Russian forces make an unexpected thrust in the Avdiivak region. They overrun and capture a Ukrainian airfield, taking over 260 prisoners. Only the next day, as the prisoners are processed, do the Russians realise they've captured nine Brits. Three are RAF personnel, and six are special forces soldiers. An assortment of British kits, including damaged Storm Shadow missiles, also fall into Russian hands.
Putin wastes no time.
"Has the U.K. declared war on Russia? The Western terror that provoked the conflict in Ukraine, the Middle East, and other regions of the world continues. They continue to lie without any embarrassment. Here we have British troops caught red-handed planning attacks on Russian homes. I trust President Trump recognises this folly."
In London, officials scramble to respond. Prime Minister Kier Starmer, in office since May 2024, denies the captured Brits are combatants. He demands their immediate release.
"I hold Putin personally responsible for the safe return of our people."
Stories circulate he was unaware of this deployment of service personnel. Other NATO members give vocal support, although rumours spread that several have warned against deploying NATO forces in Ukraine and so close to the battlefront.
Within hours, another blow lands. A short video clip of sullen young RAF airmen lands on YouTube.
"I'm airmen Richard Bentwell, 47269 of Tamworth", he explains in a shaky voice. A copy of his military ID is visible. "I'm here in Ukraine with my colleagues to arm jets with British Storm Shadow missiles. I was told this would be a safe five-day assignment. I want to go home."
The clip spreads like wildfire across social media. Questions are asked. George Galloway stands to speak in parliament.
"Mr Speaker, have we forgotten the siege of Stalingrad or the sacrifice that Russians made to defeat the beast of Berlin? The plains of Europe are soaked with the blood of a million Russian men and women who defeated the Nazis. Yet here we are today, with British service personnel setting up to kill Russians? Did the Prime Minister authorise this use of our weapons and our boys to kill Russian compatriots? Prime Minister, have you declared war on Russia?"
Starmer is struggling to contain a crisis.
On the morning of 16 January, the Russian embassy in London shuts its doors. All staff withdraw and leave the UK. Later that day, a fire burns uncontrolled through the ambassador's house down the road from the embassy. Russia claims that rioters caused the fire, while the British suggest the circumstances are suspicious and unknown.
Matters are about to get worse.
On 14 January 2025, Russian forces make an unexpected thrust in the Avdiivak region. They overrun and capture a Ukrainian airfield, taking over 260 prisoners. Only the next day, as the prisoners are processed, do the Russians realise they've captured nine Brits. Three are RAF personnel, and six are special forces soldiers. An assortment of British kits, including damaged Storm Shadow missiles, also fall into Russian hands.
Putin wastes no time.
"Has the U.K. declared war on Russia? The Western terror that provoked the conflict in Ukraine, the Middle East, and other regions of the world continues. They continue to lie without any embarrassment. Here we have British troops caught red-handed planning attacks on Russian homes. I trust President Trump recognises this folly."
In London, officials scramble to respond. Prime Minister Kier Starmer, in office since May 2024, denies the captured Brits are combatants. He demands their immediate release.
"I hold Putin personally responsible for the safe return of our people."
Stories circulate he was unaware of this deployment of service personnel. Other NATO members give vocal support, although rumours spread that several have warned against deploying NATO forces in Ukraine and so close to the battlefront.
Within hours, another blow lands. A short video clip of sullen young RAF airmen lands on YouTube.
"I'm airmen Richard Bentwell, 47269 of Tamworth", he explains in a shaky voice. A copy of his military ID is visible. "I'm here in Ukraine with my colleagues to arm jets with British Storm Shadow missiles. I was told this would be a safe five-day assignment. I want to go home."
The clip spreads like wildfire across social media. Questions are asked. George Galloway stands to speak in parliament.
"Mr Speaker, have we forgotten the siege of Stalingrad or the sacrifice that Russians made to defeat the beast of Berlin? The plains of Europe are soaked with the blood of a million Russian men and women who defeated the Nazis. Yet here we are today, with British service personnel setting up to kill Russians? Did the Prime Minister authorise this use of our weapons and our boys to kill Russian compatriots? Prime Minister, have you declared war on Russia?"
Starmer is struggling to contain a crisis.
On the morning of 16 January, the Russian embassy in London shuts its doors. All staff withdraw and leave the UK. Later that day, a fire burns uncontrolled through the ambassador's house down the road from the embassy. Russia claims that rioters caused the fire, while the British suggest the circumstances are suspicious and unknown.
Matters are about to get worse.
Storm Shadow
Putin Acts
Putin well recognises that NATO's support sustains the locked battle lines in Ukraine. Sensing an opportunity, he will make an example of the UK to test NATO's resolve. Putin knows that fault lines within NATO are growing as Germany continues to prevaricate on providing more support for Ukraine.
Through back channels, Putin tells the incoming US president he cannot allow the UK's actions to go unpunished. He assumes Trump will convey this message to London. Trump says nothing in public.
Moreover, Putin makes it clear that any coordinated response against Russia will be met with nuclear weapons. He clarifies the point.
"Watch what happens and assess if I'm genuine in my claims of self-protection for Russia."
Further, in a series of public moves, Putin claims to have reactivated "Dead Hand." This automated system will launch nuclear missiles if it detects a nuclear attack on Moscow and if communication links with top commanders fail. NATO intelligence is working to determine if "Dead Hand" is active. If the answer is yes, a potentially devastating tripwire is laid.
In his thinking, Putin aims to create a crisis in Britain without killing lots of people. Further, he wishes to challenge NATO's commitment by not launching an all-out attack. It's a "kill a hen to frighten the monkey" strategy.
These proposals accord with Russian doctrine. The doctrine states, "Russia's military is expected to be able to use tactical nuclear weapons for a broad array of goals, including "containing states from using aggression or escalate military conflicts".
Startled NATO commanders recognise that the game has become much riskier. Moreover, the US president is absent from the field of play.
Trump assumed office on 21 January, vowing to "restore peace and keep Americans safe."
Putin well recognises that NATO's support sustains the locked battle lines in Ukraine. Sensing an opportunity, he will make an example of the UK to test NATO's resolve. Putin knows that fault lines within NATO are growing as Germany continues to prevaricate on providing more support for Ukraine.
Through back channels, Putin tells the incoming US president he cannot allow the UK's actions to go unpunished. He assumes Trump will convey this message to London. Trump says nothing in public.
Moreover, Putin makes it clear that any coordinated response against Russia will be met with nuclear weapons. He clarifies the point.
"Watch what happens and assess if I'm genuine in my claims of self-protection for Russia."
Further, in a series of public moves, Putin claims to have reactivated "Dead Hand." This automated system will launch nuclear missiles if it detects a nuclear attack on Moscow and if communication links with top commanders fail. NATO intelligence is working to determine if "Dead Hand" is active. If the answer is yes, a potentially devastating tripwire is laid.
In his thinking, Putin aims to create a crisis in Britain without killing lots of people. Further, he wishes to challenge NATO's commitment by not launching an all-out attack. It's a "kill a hen to frighten the monkey" strategy.
These proposals accord with Russian doctrine. The doctrine states, "Russia's military is expected to be able to use tactical nuclear weapons for a broad array of goals, including "containing states from using aggression or escalate military conflicts".
Startled NATO commanders recognise that the game has become much riskier. Moreover, the US president is absent from the field of play.
Trump assumed office on 21 January, vowing to "restore peace and keep Americans safe."
The launch
Turning the key - Friday, 24 January.
At 1700 hrs (Zulu) on 24 January, Captain Yury Oleg of the ballistic missile submarine Knyaz Vladimir receives his orders. Lurking in the depths of the Kara Sea off Russia's north shore, the crew scrambled to prepare the vessel to launch two Bulava missiles.
Each missile can carry up to 10 independent 150 kilotons of warheads with an accuracy of 100 meters. The Hiroshima bomb exploded with an energy of about 15 kilotons.
But for this job, the payload configuration is unique. Each missile carries a single nuclear warhead and three electromagnetic pulse bombs. The experimental EMP weapons have never been combat-tested.
The EMP bombs offer the advantage of frying the electronics at a target without direct loss of life. At least that's the plan — the knock-on effects could see thousands killed. The radius of effect varies, with most of the damage done within 400 meters of the detonation point. Outdoor electric cables up to 2000 meters away can be damaged.
As the targeting officer Anton Petrov feeds in the coordinates, he wonders how many other subs are doing the same. He also thinks of his family.
Petrov knows the launch would immediately expose the Knyaz Vladimir, and if NATO decided to respond, a lot of trouble would head his way.
At 1820 hrs (Zulu), as Britons made their way home on a cold, clear Friday evening, the launch sequence on the Knyaz Vladimir commenced. The submarine rose to firing height, and missile doors opened.
Then, the vessel rocked to noise and vibrations as high-pressure air forced the missile to the surface. Igniting its engine, the first rocket flew away. Thirty seconds later, number two went. Then silence.
"Dive, dive", Captain Oleg commended as he ran for depth. For him and the crew, it's now a game of run and hide.
Almost immediately, US space-based detectors picked up the two missiles climbing away. Meanwhile, alarms rang at RAF Fylingdales in North Yorkshire as the giant phased array radar sighted the rockets.
"Site report now! Two bogies. Launch location confirmed - Kala Sea 73 Degrees 23'06.19 North, 58 Degrees 31'13.06 east," shouts the duty officer.
"Only two missiles?" Squadron Leader Helmworths, the watch commander, is baffled. Where are they going? And when will they arrive? Check this is not a false signal."
Two missiles doesn't suggest an all-out attack. The scenario doesn't fit with exercises.
"All systems nominal - site report is viable", responds the radar operator. “This is real world not exercise."
"Shit" blurts Helmsworth as he reaches for the Whitehall line. Within seconds, the whole NATO ballistic missile tracking system scrambles to determine what is happening.
"Target areas are south-east England and east England." Calls the tracking officer as the system continues to follow the missiles and assess their impact points.
When alerted to the inbound missiles, Kier Starmer is on a train heading to Manchester. He's told impact is within 15 minutes. His train is 30 minutes away from Manchester.
Newly inaugurated President Trump is visiting supporters in Fairfax County outside Washington DC. He's rushed to a secure location. Told that US nuclear forces have moved to a Def Con 2 alert and are ready to respond within an hour, he immediately downgrades it to Def Con 3.
"It's two missiles; it's not heading our way. Let's see. It's probably a misreading by the system. Let's not start a war," he scolds the Chief of Staff.
At 1700 hrs (Zulu) on 24 January, Captain Yury Oleg of the ballistic missile submarine Knyaz Vladimir receives his orders. Lurking in the depths of the Kara Sea off Russia's north shore, the crew scrambled to prepare the vessel to launch two Bulava missiles.
Each missile can carry up to 10 independent 150 kilotons of warheads with an accuracy of 100 meters. The Hiroshima bomb exploded with an energy of about 15 kilotons.
But for this job, the payload configuration is unique. Each missile carries a single nuclear warhead and three electromagnetic pulse bombs. The experimental EMP weapons have never been combat-tested.
The EMP bombs offer the advantage of frying the electronics at a target without direct loss of life. At least that's the plan — the knock-on effects could see thousands killed. The radius of effect varies, with most of the damage done within 400 meters of the detonation point. Outdoor electric cables up to 2000 meters away can be damaged.
As the targeting officer Anton Petrov feeds in the coordinates, he wonders how many other subs are doing the same. He also thinks of his family.
Petrov knows the launch would immediately expose the Knyaz Vladimir, and if NATO decided to respond, a lot of trouble would head his way.
At 1820 hrs (Zulu), as Britons made their way home on a cold, clear Friday evening, the launch sequence on the Knyaz Vladimir commenced. The submarine rose to firing height, and missile doors opened.
Then, the vessel rocked to noise and vibrations as high-pressure air forced the missile to the surface. Igniting its engine, the first rocket flew away. Thirty seconds later, number two went. Then silence.
"Dive, dive", Captain Oleg commended as he ran for depth. For him and the crew, it's now a game of run and hide.
Almost immediately, US space-based detectors picked up the two missiles climbing away. Meanwhile, alarms rang at RAF Fylingdales in North Yorkshire as the giant phased array radar sighted the rockets.
"Site report now! Two bogies. Launch location confirmed - Kala Sea 73 Degrees 23'06.19 North, 58 Degrees 31'13.06 east," shouts the duty officer.
"Only two missiles?" Squadron Leader Helmworths, the watch commander, is baffled. Where are they going? And when will they arrive? Check this is not a false signal."
Two missiles doesn't suggest an all-out attack. The scenario doesn't fit with exercises.
"All systems nominal - site report is viable", responds the radar operator. “This is real world not exercise."
"Shit" blurts Helmsworth as he reaches for the Whitehall line. Within seconds, the whole NATO ballistic missile tracking system scrambles to determine what is happening.
"Target areas are south-east England and east England." Calls the tracking officer as the system continues to follow the missiles and assess their impact points.
When alerted to the inbound missiles, Kier Starmer is on a train heading to Manchester. He's told impact is within 15 minutes. His train is 30 minutes away from Manchester.
Newly inaugurated President Trump is visiting supporters in Fairfax County outside Washington DC. He's rushed to a secure location. Told that US nuclear forces have moved to a Def Con 2 alert and are ready to respond within an hour, he immediately downgrades it to Def Con 3.
"It's two missiles; it's not heading our way. Let's see. It's probably a misreading by the system. Let's not start a war," he scolds the Chief of Staff.
A light in the sky
A Light in the Sky - The Attack.
At 1834 hrs (Zulu), a 150-kiloton nuclear warhead detonates seven miles above the Hornsea 1 and 2 Wind farms located 55 miles offshore of East Yorkshire. Designed to generate enough power for over three million UK homes, the world's largest wind farm shuts down as huge EMP pulse fries its electronics. The detonation height and position produce minimal fallout.
Ashore, at sea and in the air, the flash startles many across a vast distance. It's seen on the European coastline. Following the flash of light, a blast is heard and felt along the entire coast of Yorkshire, Lincolnshire and as far inland as York as a distant rumble.
No one dies. The flash of the nuke blinds several crewmen of ships in the area. Simultaneously, a KLM flight from Amsterdam to Manchester Airport suffered a partial electrical failure. It diverts to Humberside Airport and lands.
Meanwhile, the EMP has triggered failures in the offshore substation that ripple across the power grid of eastern England. Power lines across East Yorkshire and North Lincolnshire shut down as multiple fires take hold at sub-stations.
Systems shut down at the huge Salt End petrochemicals complex east of Hull, and the site power station fails. The massive Immingham refinery is in trouble on the south bank of the Humber. With pumps offline, chemicals and fuel are mixing, threatening disaster as a small fire in the on-site substation is burning.
Trains on the East Coast line come to a halt. Meanwhile, as folks settle for dinner in front of the TV in hundreds of thousands of homes, they're plunged into sudden darkness. Trapped in lifts, people press the alarm, but without power, it's not heard. Pensioners immediately feel the cold as their heating is gone.
At approximately 1835 hours, two EMP bombs detonate 100 metres above their targets while a third goes off track. The Kao Data Centre in Harlow, Essex, is one of the U.K.'s largest facilities. The electromagnetic pulse hits routers, switches, storage systems, servers, and all associated electric system. They burn out.
Debris from the bomb ignites a fire in an adjacent carpark. Power lines in the immediate vicinity fail, setting off a cascade of power cuts.
Hit next is the Ark Data Centre, Spring Park, Corsham, Wiltshire. By happen-chance, the device also cripples electronic systems in a nearby Ministry of Defence facility.
A third EMP bomb fails to function as designed. It lands on the road outside the Stellium Data Centre, Newcastle. By emitting a partial energy pulse, the bomb damages the connector for the nearby North Sea Connect cable system to the US. At the same time, an adjacent electrical substation and power lines short and burn. Power outages then sweep move across Newcastle and parts of the Teeside
The Internet is at risk, with offline data centres and power supplies failing. Automatic shutdowns gather pace as system controllers struggle to comprehend events.
The second missile made its way over the Wash and plummeted into the sea. An error in the guidance system aborts the flight. Later, evidence emerged that its targets included wind farms and electrical substations serving the Viking underground cable linking the UK and Denmark.
This malfunctioning missile is a piece of good luck. Still, within minutes, over 15 million homes are without power. Newcastle, Teeside, Hull, Scunthorpe, Grimsby, Goole, York, and adjacent rural areas are dark. Hospitals are running on emergency backup power using diesel generators. Sewage and water pumping systems fail. With ATMs out of order, hooligans attempt to smash them open to steal cash.
What remains in service of the mobile phone system is immediately reserved for the exclusive use of the authorities under emergency plans.
At 1834 hrs (Zulu), a 150-kiloton nuclear warhead detonates seven miles above the Hornsea 1 and 2 Wind farms located 55 miles offshore of East Yorkshire. Designed to generate enough power for over three million UK homes, the world's largest wind farm shuts down as huge EMP pulse fries its electronics. The detonation height and position produce minimal fallout.
Ashore, at sea and in the air, the flash startles many across a vast distance. It's seen on the European coastline. Following the flash of light, a blast is heard and felt along the entire coast of Yorkshire, Lincolnshire and as far inland as York as a distant rumble.
No one dies. The flash of the nuke blinds several crewmen of ships in the area. Simultaneously, a KLM flight from Amsterdam to Manchester Airport suffered a partial electrical failure. It diverts to Humberside Airport and lands.
Meanwhile, the EMP has triggered failures in the offshore substation that ripple across the power grid of eastern England. Power lines across East Yorkshire and North Lincolnshire shut down as multiple fires take hold at sub-stations.
Systems shut down at the huge Salt End petrochemicals complex east of Hull, and the site power station fails. The massive Immingham refinery is in trouble on the south bank of the Humber. With pumps offline, chemicals and fuel are mixing, threatening disaster as a small fire in the on-site substation is burning.
Trains on the East Coast line come to a halt. Meanwhile, as folks settle for dinner in front of the TV in hundreds of thousands of homes, they're plunged into sudden darkness. Trapped in lifts, people press the alarm, but without power, it's not heard. Pensioners immediately feel the cold as their heating is gone.
At approximately 1835 hours, two EMP bombs detonate 100 metres above their targets while a third goes off track. The Kao Data Centre in Harlow, Essex, is one of the U.K.'s largest facilities. The electromagnetic pulse hits routers, switches, storage systems, servers, and all associated electric system. They burn out.
Debris from the bomb ignites a fire in an adjacent carpark. Power lines in the immediate vicinity fail, setting off a cascade of power cuts.
Hit next is the Ark Data Centre, Spring Park, Corsham, Wiltshire. By happen-chance, the device also cripples electronic systems in a nearby Ministry of Defence facility.
A third EMP bomb fails to function as designed. It lands on the road outside the Stellium Data Centre, Newcastle. By emitting a partial energy pulse, the bomb damages the connector for the nearby North Sea Connect cable system to the US. At the same time, an adjacent electrical substation and power lines short and burn. Power outages then sweep move across Newcastle and parts of the Teeside
The Internet is at risk, with offline data centres and power supplies failing. Automatic shutdowns gather pace as system controllers struggle to comprehend events.
The second missile made its way over the Wash and plummeted into the sea. An error in the guidance system aborts the flight. Later, evidence emerged that its targets included wind farms and electrical substations serving the Viking underground cable linking the UK and Denmark.
This malfunctioning missile is a piece of good luck. Still, within minutes, over 15 million homes are without power. Newcastle, Teeside, Hull, Scunthorpe, Grimsby, Goole, York, and adjacent rural areas are dark. Hospitals are running on emergency backup power using diesel generators. Sewage and water pumping systems fail. With ATMs out of order, hooligans attempt to smash them open to steal cash.
What remains in service of the mobile phone system is immediately reserved for the exclusive use of the authorities under emergency plans.
An electrical sub-station goes up
The Fall Out - A Psychological Blow
Late that night, across the nation, a deep psychological pall of collective depression takes hold. As news spreads of what has happened, the consequences sink in — shock and panic take hold. Realising immediate help isn't coming, some people take to the streets. Looting is widespread even in cities still with power. The police are mostly absent.
Baffled young soldiers deployed to Leeds from Catterick Camp are unsure what to do in the face of rampaging gangs of kids. Some communities barricade their streets and post vigilante patrols. Two police officers are shot dead in Manchester trying to stop looting.
Historians will record that Kier Starmer sat stranded on his stalled train for 40 minutes until a helicopter could lift him to a secure government facility. He declared a national emergency at 2132 hrs, imposing martial law under the Emergency Powers Act of 1964.
Between 3,000 and 5,000 people died that evening as an indirect consequence of the attacks. Several had heart attacks; others had accidents in the dark, and many homes went up in flames as residents used candles for light. Suicide rates surged.
It would take authorities three months to restore full power, although most urban areas had intermittent power restored within 20 days. Mild winter weather proved a blessing. And yet, the damage to the economy and national psyche proved profound.
Late that night, across the nation, a deep psychological pall of collective depression takes hold. As news spreads of what has happened, the consequences sink in — shock and panic take hold. Realising immediate help isn't coming, some people take to the streets. Looting is widespread even in cities still with power. The police are mostly absent.
Baffled young soldiers deployed to Leeds from Catterick Camp are unsure what to do in the face of rampaging gangs of kids. Some communities barricade their streets and post vigilante patrols. Two police officers are shot dead in Manchester trying to stop looting.
Historians will record that Kier Starmer sat stranded on his stalled train for 40 minutes until a helicopter could lift him to a secure government facility. He declared a national emergency at 2132 hrs, imposing martial law under the Emergency Powers Act of 1964.
Between 3,000 and 5,000 people died that evening as an indirect consequence of the attacks. Several had heart attacks; others had accidents in the dark, and many homes went up in flames as residents used candles for light. Suicide rates surged.
It would take authorities three months to restore full power, although most urban areas had intermittent power restored within 20 days. Mild winter weather proved a blessing. And yet, the damage to the economy and national psyche proved profound.
UK disorder
Article 5
And what of a response? The collective defence principle is at the heart of NATO's founding treaty. Article 5 asserts that if you attack one NATO country, you are deemed to have attacked them all.
Noting no one had died directly, President Trump prevaricated for days. He's reminded that after the 9/11 attacks, NATO evoked Article 5, putting the rest of the world on notice that NATO stood side by side with the US.
He responds
"Yep, but no one died. Well, not directly. The nuke blew up over the sea; we've got no fallout. The Russians destroyed a few windmills. Do you want me to start World War 3 for damaged windmills? I don't see the point of retaliation."
He called Putin on the hotline to tell him, "What you did was a bad thing. I know why you did it. But it's still a bad thing." Putin assures Trump there will be no more attacks on the UK.
"I've made my point." claims Putin.
Other NATO members also wobbled. They argued that Putin had demonstrated a willingness to use nukes, and yet he'd been prudent. The German chancellor, in a leaked conversation, is heard saying, "Let's not give him an excuse for suicidal martyrdom that burns the whole of Europe."
Turkey's leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, makes it clear he does not assess that the event in the UK constitutes an automatic activation of Article 5. He wishes to explore other response options.
Fearful that they'd be the next target, several NATO countries chose to focus on helping the UK overcome the impacts of attacks. They verbally blast Russia, but talk of a military response recedes.
On 31 January, a chastened and tired-looking Starmer speaks to the British people.
"As I speak, a proportionate response is underway to Russia's unprovoked attack on the UK. I regret that while NATO "friends" have not joined us, they support the UK."
Later that day, it emerged that British submarines sank six Russian navy vessels in a coordinated operation. Concurrently, cruise missiles struck the home port of the Knyaz Vladimir. Russian media reported a school hit and little else.
Satellite images suggested otherwise. The UK destroyed several tied-up out-of-service submarines and a large weapon storage facility.
On 2 February, the Knyaz Vladimir surfaced in preparation for entering Murmansk under the cover of darkness. Within 15 minutes, two underwater drones slammed into her hull. She sank. Only six crew members managed to escape. Nobody in the UK celebrated. There is immediate speculation that UK special forces carried out the sinking.
And what of a response? The collective defence principle is at the heart of NATO's founding treaty. Article 5 asserts that if you attack one NATO country, you are deemed to have attacked them all.
Noting no one had died directly, President Trump prevaricated for days. He's reminded that after the 9/11 attacks, NATO evoked Article 5, putting the rest of the world on notice that NATO stood side by side with the US.
He responds
"Yep, but no one died. Well, not directly. The nuke blew up over the sea; we've got no fallout. The Russians destroyed a few windmills. Do you want me to start World War 3 for damaged windmills? I don't see the point of retaliation."
He called Putin on the hotline to tell him, "What you did was a bad thing. I know why you did it. But it's still a bad thing." Putin assures Trump there will be no more attacks on the UK.
"I've made my point." claims Putin.
Other NATO members also wobbled. They argued that Putin had demonstrated a willingness to use nukes, and yet he'd been prudent. The German chancellor, in a leaked conversation, is heard saying, "Let's not give him an excuse for suicidal martyrdom that burns the whole of Europe."
Turkey's leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, makes it clear he does not assess that the event in the UK constitutes an automatic activation of Article 5. He wishes to explore other response options.
Fearful that they'd be the next target, several NATO countries chose to focus on helping the UK overcome the impacts of attacks. They verbally blast Russia, but talk of a military response recedes.
On 31 January, a chastened and tired-looking Starmer speaks to the British people.
"As I speak, a proportionate response is underway to Russia's unprovoked attack on the UK. I regret that while NATO "friends" have not joined us, they support the UK."
Later that day, it emerged that British submarines sank six Russian navy vessels in a coordinated operation. Concurrently, cruise missiles struck the home port of the Knyaz Vladimir. Russian media reported a school hit and little else.
Satellite images suggested otherwise. The UK destroyed several tied-up out-of-service submarines and a large weapon storage facility.
On 2 February, the Knyaz Vladimir surfaced in preparation for entering Murmansk under the cover of darkness. Within 15 minutes, two underwater drones slammed into her hull. She sank. Only six crew members managed to escape. Nobody in the UK celebrated. There is immediate speculation that UK special forces carried out the sinking.
NATO wobbles
The Aftermath
In Moscow, Putin assessed he'd called NATO's bluff and prevailed. He quietly ordered no further action against British forces and negotiated to return the captured personnel.
On 6 March 2025, as Putin drove in a convoy through the suburbs of Moscow, a colossal roadside bomb destroyed his vehicle. Some 20 others die with him. Within hours, claims emerged that elements of the Wagner group killed Putin to avenge the assassination of their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Mikhail Mishustin, the Russian prime minister, assumes the role of Russian president with the military's backing. By Easter 2025, Ukraine and Russia will meet for ceasefire talks brokered by China, these talks commence in Qatar. On the front, the guns fall silent.
Meanwhile, Kier Starmer resigns, with Home Secretary Yvette Cooper taking over. Citing exhaustion, Starmer retires from public life.
The future of NATO remains doubtful as Trump leads the US into increasing isolation.
In Moscow, Putin assessed he'd called NATO's bluff and prevailed. He quietly ordered no further action against British forces and negotiated to return the captured personnel.
On 6 March 2025, as Putin drove in a convoy through the suburbs of Moscow, a colossal roadside bomb destroyed his vehicle. Some 20 others die with him. Within hours, claims emerged that elements of the Wagner group killed Putin to avenge the assassination of their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Mikhail Mishustin, the Russian prime minister, assumes the role of Russian president with the military's backing. By Easter 2025, Ukraine and Russia will meet for ceasefire talks brokered by China, these talks commence in Qatar. On the front, the guns fall silent.
Meanwhile, Kier Starmer resigns, with Home Secretary Yvette Cooper taking over. Citing exhaustion, Starmer retires from public life.
The future of NATO remains doubtful as Trump leads the US into increasing isolation.
Putin is hit
Commentary
Let's delve into some real-life instances that underline the potential impact of EMP weapons.
In July 1962, the US detonated a 1.4 megaton nuclear weapon (Starfish Prime) 250 miles above the Pacific Ocean, around 900 miles from Hawaii. The effect of this explosion was the generation of an electromagnetic pulse that was far larger than expected. The EMP caused damage to electrical equipment in Hawaii, knocking out streetlights, setting off fire alarms and damaging telephone equipment. Ops.
In 1989, the entire power grid in the Canadian province of Quebec crumbled within a mere 90 seconds. The cause? Stabilising equipment failed to withstand the effects of a geomagnetic storm, a phenomenon known as a "Carrington event". These events are triggered by solar flares, which, interestingly, mimic the effects of EMP weapons.
A Parliamentary Defence Committee concluded in February 2012 that "the potential effects of a Carrington-size space weather event or a high-altitude nuclear EMP weapon would have specific and potentially devastating impacts upon the electrical grid and other aspects of electronic infrastructure, which play an absolutely critical role in UK society."
Let's break it down in simple terms: no power, no heat, no internet, a disrupted food supply, and no hospitals. In essence, this is a complete breakdown of our modern society as we know it.
It's a stark reality: no nation is ready to handle a Carrington event or EMP attack. We can't prevent a Carrington event, but fortifying our systems can provide a measure of resilience and help in the face of an EMP attack. The key term here is "resilience" because achieving total protection is daunting, given the sheer power of EMP weapons and our heavy reliance on electricity and IT systems.
This essay started with a question: The accepted narrative is that any use of nuclear weapons by Russia will invite an overwhelming and destructive response that will obliterate the country. But what if that narrative is wrong?
Fear is as dangerous as nuclear contamination itself. Panic matters and could escalate, regardless of whether the threat in any community is real or not, creating greater instability. No one can say what would happen next.
Either way, there are no winners in these dangerous games.
March 2024
Let's delve into some real-life instances that underline the potential impact of EMP weapons.
In July 1962, the US detonated a 1.4 megaton nuclear weapon (Starfish Prime) 250 miles above the Pacific Ocean, around 900 miles from Hawaii. The effect of this explosion was the generation of an electromagnetic pulse that was far larger than expected. The EMP caused damage to electrical equipment in Hawaii, knocking out streetlights, setting off fire alarms and damaging telephone equipment. Ops.
In 1989, the entire power grid in the Canadian province of Quebec crumbled within a mere 90 seconds. The cause? Stabilising equipment failed to withstand the effects of a geomagnetic storm, a phenomenon known as a "Carrington event". These events are triggered by solar flares, which, interestingly, mimic the effects of EMP weapons.
A Parliamentary Defence Committee concluded in February 2012 that "the potential effects of a Carrington-size space weather event or a high-altitude nuclear EMP weapon would have specific and potentially devastating impacts upon the electrical grid and other aspects of electronic infrastructure, which play an absolutely critical role in UK society."
Let's break it down in simple terms: no power, no heat, no internet, a disrupted food supply, and no hospitals. In essence, this is a complete breakdown of our modern society as we know it.
It's a stark reality: no nation is ready to handle a Carrington event or EMP attack. We can't prevent a Carrington event, but fortifying our systems can provide a measure of resilience and help in the face of an EMP attack. The key term here is "resilience" because achieving total protection is daunting, given the sheer power of EMP weapons and our heavy reliance on electricity and IT systems.
This essay started with a question: The accepted narrative is that any use of nuclear weapons by Russia will invite an overwhelming and destructive response that will obliterate the country. But what if that narrative is wrong?
Fear is as dangerous as nuclear contamination itself. Panic matters and could escalate, regardless of whether the threat in any community is real or not, creating greater instability. No one can say what would happen next.
Either way, there are no winners in these dangerous games.
March 2024