When the Genie is out of the bottle.

"In the deadly game of nuclear brinkmanship, Trump has just reset the rules to there are no rules." 

I picked up "Nuclear War - A Scenario" by Annie Jacobsen at Manchester Airport while waiting for a 14-hour flight to Hong Kong. It was part of a 'buy one, get one 50% off' deal. I was initially more interested in the other book, which focused on advances in AI.

However, as I waited to board my flight, I started reading, and by the time I arrived in Hong Kong, I had finished Jacobsen's book. The book reads like a thriller, offering a second-by-second, minute-by-minute account of a nuclear war.

Although the book captivated me, I still wish I hadn't bought it. The story it tells is genuinely terrifying and nightmarish. The awful image it leaves is now ingrained.

Jacobsen's Wikipedia entry describes her as an investigative journalist specialising in war, weapons, and secrets. She has authored seven titles, including one about the events at Area 51. Because of this, some people label her a conspiracy theorist and dismiss her work accordingly.
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In "Nuclear War - A Scenario", Jacobson describes a series of events that could lead to nuclear conflict on a scale capable of devastating the entire planet and endangering humanity. We all know that nuclear war is catastrophic, yet Jacobson, drawing on extensive research and consulting numerous experts, depicts a truly terrifying scenario. Moreover, any comfort felt that the Cold War has ended must be set aside.

She argues that the current systems and doctrines for nuclear weapons use, which lack time for decision-making or communication towards de-escalation, and the mutual distrust among nuclear-armed states pose a significant risk in themselves. None of this is new. Nevertheless, Jacobsen draws many threads together, including how cascading decision processes provide no escape route from Armageddon.

The saga that Jacobson describes involves an initial attack by North Korea against the United States. A single intercontinental ballistic missile flies towards the Pentagon, and almost simultaneously, a submarine fires a missile at a nuclear power plant on the Californian coast. 

As these attacks unfold, the U.S. president has mere minutes to decide on a response while simultaneously being evacuated from the White House, which will be within the blast radius of the missile aimed at the Pentagon. I'm giving away spoilers here. Although the book itself is a work of fiction, it is based on a possible scenario and explains how a response to a nuclear attack might unfold.

In brief, 'deterrence' has failed. Nevertheless, U.S. policy advocates a devastating counterstrike to eliminate the North Korean leadership. However, because the U.S. does not know their exact locations, millions of innocent North Korean civilians will be targeted to decapitate the country's leadership. 

It's a holocaust delivered from the sky as hundreds of nuclear missiles strike North Korea. In the process, South Korea and China suffer immediate collateral damage. 

Jacobson describes in grim detail the impact of a nuclear weapon on a modern city. While the atomic blast itself is truly terrible, what follows is a vast, all-consuming fire.

Furthermore, Jacobson considers a possible scenario in which an EMP weapon detonates high above the United States, completely disabling the entire power grid, computer systems, and all related infrastructure. Within seconds, the U.S. regresses to a pre-electricity, pre-computer, and pre-modern state, leading to total societal collapse.

In response to the attack from North Korea, the United States launched missiles towards the regime in Pyongyang. Some of these missiles must fly over Russia to reach their targets. With the U.S. President out of position and the Russians distrustful of what America is doing, believing the attack is aimed at them.  

The Russians followed their doctrine to launch missiles against the United States. In making that decision, they have also seen NATO activating its systems in response to the events in the United States and believe this is all part of a pre-emptive strike against Russia.

In the final twist of this hellish cascade of events, the remaining nuclear forces available to the United States are now under the command of the Secretary of Defence because the president is believed to be dead and the vice president is unavailable. Operating from an airborne command post, the U.S. now launches a barrage of missiles against Russia based on a 'use them or lose them' strategy. Meanwhile, Russia is also attacking major military centres in Europe.

And all of this has happened within just a few hours. Hundreds of millions of people are dead, dying, blind, or suffering severe burns and lacerations, requiring urgent medical attention. None will come because medical facilities no longer exist or are unable to function. Plus the sheer number of injured is beyond capacity by a factor of several million. 

Now, a vast cloud of radioactive material is spreading across the globe. Pushed into the upper atmosphere, sunlight is blocked. A nuclear winter has begun, effectively halting food production for decades. A human-triggered mass extinction event is underway. Even when that winter eases and the skies clear, the sun's life-giving light remains a hazard because the ozone layer is gone. 

Small traumatised groups of humans cling on as hunter-gatherers, scratching out an existence in caves and underground structures. It will take centuries for them to emerge onto the planet's surface fully. 

The sequence of events Jacobsen provides is plausible, except for the U.S. president parachuting from a doomed helicopter to avoid an expected nuclear blast. That seemed too contrived and downright ridiculous. For her scenario, Jacobsen needed the president to be dead to show how the power to use atomic weapons shifted. Having him caught in the blast over Washington should have been enough.

The point of the book is that only a few nuclear weapons are needed to cause global panic and trigger a response that quickly spirals out of control. Furthermore, a strike on a civilian nuclear facility results has exponentially more damaging effects as the reactors melt down and spent fuel rods burn, releasing radiation into the atmosphere. Eventually, all that radiation settles back to the ground, poisoning the very soil and water we depend on.

Jacobsen is right to describe the mistrust between nuclear states as potentially catastrophic. Recently, President Trump claimed he had not decided when to strike Iran and even misled the UK Prime Minister with reassurances that the decision was not imminent. As a willing patsy, Starmer repeated these promises. Yet within days, Trump attacked Iran's key nuclear sites. Preparations were underway when Trump gave these assurances.

Now, while you might argue that Trump's stance gave a tactical advantge in that it put Iran off guard. Yet, in the broader view, Trump has also fostered distrust. In short, can you believe anything Trump says? In Moscow and elsewhere, this deception will be recognised and logged.

​During the next crisis, will Trump's assurances hold any value? Essentially, he has shown North Korea that only by keeping their nuclear weapons can they feel secure. Others will draw the same conclusion from these events.

Thus, in the deadly game of nuclear brinkmanship, Trump has just reset the rules to 'there are no rules.' 

Critics have attacked Jacobsen's book as disaster porn and anti-nuclear weapon propaganda. They argue that, to date, 'deterrence' has been effective. Such critics say that Jacobsen gets her facts wrong but they appear unduly enthralled by the planning and thought that goes into the nuclear posture. Still, these individuals overlook the fact that 'deterrence' works until it doesn't. 

It is perhaps worth recalling that the same clique told us Saddam had nuclear and chemical weapons ready to strike at a moment's notice. The same clique, with all their clever systems of intelligence and war gaming, misinterpreted a civil war as a communist attempt to take over the world, leading to the Vietnam War. The same clique used cruise missiles to destroy a milk formula factory because flawed intelligence told them it produced chemical weapons. The list continues.

History tells us things go wrong. Moreover, the deterrence strategy relies on rational actors. And history tells us humans can be irrational, and all our clever systems don't shield us from irrationality.

Therefore, Jacobsen's book arrives at a critical moment. The book certainly has its flaws; However, as the blurb on the front states, every world leader should be encouraged to read it as a timely reminder.