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  • Walter's Blog.
  • Home
  • Introduction
  • About Walter
    • 1980 Joining Up - Grafton Street >
      • Arrival and First Impressions
      • First Week
      • Training
      • Passing Out
    • Yaumati Cowboy >
      • Getting on the Streets
      • Tempo of the City
      • Jumpers, pill poppers and the indoor BBQ
      • Into a Minefield.
    • Why Tango in Paris, when you can Foxtrot in Kowloon? >
      • Baptism By Fire
      • Kai Tak with Mrs Thatcher.
      • Home; The Boy Returns
  • 1984 - 1986
    • PTU Instructor & Getting Hitched
    • Having a go: SDU
    • Starting a Chernobyl family
    • EOD - Don't touch anything
    • Semen Stains and the rules
  • 1987 to 1992 - Should I Stay or Go?
    • Blue Lights, Sirens & Grenades
    • Drugs, Broken Kids & A Plane Crash
    • 600 Happy Meals Please!
    • Hong Kong's Best Insurance
    • Riding the Iron Horse
  • Crime in Hong Kong
    • Falling Crime Rates - Why?
    • Triads
  • History of Hong Kong Policing
    • History 1841 to 1941
    • History 1945 to 1967
    • Anatomy of the 50 cent Riot - 1966
    • The Fall of a Commissioner.
    • History 1967 to 1980
    • Three Wise Men from the West
    • The Blue Berets.
    • The African Korps and other tribes.
    • Getting About - Transport.
    • A Pub in every station
    • Bullshit Bingo & Meetings
    • Godber - The one who nearly got away.
    • Uncle Ho
  • Top 20 Films
    • 2001 - A Space Odyssey.
    • The Godfather.
    • Blade Runner
    • Kes
    • Star Wars
    • Aliens
    • Ferris Bueller's Day Off
    • The Life of Brian
    • Dr Strangelove.
    • Infernal Affairs
    • Bridge on the River Kwai.
    • This Is Spinal Tap.
    • Chung King Express
    • An Officer and a Gentleman
    • PTU
    • Contact
    • Saving Private Ryan
    • Family Guy Star Wars
    • Zulu
    • Hard Day's Night
  • The Long Read
    • How The Walls Come Down
    • War in Ukraine - the narrative and other stuff.
    • The Hidden Leader
    • The Big Game
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Walter's Blog

"But how can you live and have no story to tell?" Fyodor Dostoevsky
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Reflections on recent events, plus the occasional fact free rant unfiltered by rational argument. 

"If you want to read a blog to get a sense of what is going on in Hong Kong these days or a blog that would tell you wh at life was like living in colonial Hong Kong, this blog, WALTER'S BLOG, fits the bill."  Hong Kong Blog Review

17/2/2022 3 Comments

What's Going On?

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"At times like these, with drum-beating for war by hyperbole and dogmatic statements, it is helpful to cultivate neutrality and weigh the evidence."
As I write this blog, on Wednesday 16 February 2022, something isn't happening. Russian T-72 tanks aren't rolling into Ukraine. Neither are Mig-35's banking over Kyiv as Russian special forces ride in to seize critical infrastructure. All this, plus a massive cyber attack to cripple Ukraine's internet access, was to happen. How do I know that?

Because President Biden told us last week that this is coming, citing 'intelligence'; - he was insistent that Russia would attack. On the back of that, the hapless British foreign secretary, keen not to miss a photo opportunity, jetted off to Moscow to confront the nasty Russians. Unfortunately, Liz Truss's encounter with the Russian foreign minister Lavrov went something like this;

Truss: "Russia must move its troops away from the Ukrainian border, or else…."
Lavrov: "Why should we? It's up to Russia where it deploys its troops inside Russia" (which, of course, it is).
Lavrov then asks, for good measure: "Do you recognise Russia's sovereignty over the Rostov and Voronezh regions?"


At which point Truss responded with all the authority of the UK's chief diplomat: "The UK will never recognise Russia's sovereignty over these regions."

That's when the UK's ambassador to Moscow, Deborah Bronnert, leant across to Truss to discreetly inform her that these regions were actually in Russia.

How embarrassing when the British foreign secretary doesn't understand the basics. Add to that an American president who looks like he's making stuff up or gilding the lily. It would be funny, except this is a deadly serious business. But then, of course, Biden will assert that his interventions have stopped Putin. Maybe.

It is also remarkable that few Western media outlets have bothered to critically assess the line fed to them by the Western governments.

So who is playing who here? As I've before asked - did Putin ever intend to invade? Is he following the doctrine of 'Never attempt to win by force what can be won by deception' as expounded by Niccolò Machiavelli?

For sure, Putin has put the West on notice that he won't tolerate NATOs expansion to his borders. To achieve that, he's put a lot of troops in the field, stood back and let the West do the rest.

As a Spectator columnist pointed out, "The Kremlin has made no threats or issued any demands on Ukraine itself. It doesn't have to because the West is doing such an eloquent job of broadcasting the reality of Russian military might for them."

With even the Ukraine president asking the West to 'cool it', it is difficult to comprehend the machinations. A senior officer in Ukraine's intelligence service posted a meme showing Mr Biden standing on a roadside, checking his watch and then taking a nap. The caption was: 'Waiting for the Russian invasion.'

Is the posturing of the US and the West less a reflection of the belief of an imminent invasion but rather a means to further serve their agendas?

Getting a handle on the truth is problematic as several issues are converging into a messy confluence of confusion and distrust. After WMDs in Iraq and the recent hasty retreat from Afghanistan, we all understand that politicians use 'intelligence' to justify their reasoning. In the process, so-called 'intelligence' gets distorted to fit agendas.

This twisting delegitimises assessments to the point that trust falters in the public's eye.

Tie that into propaganda efforts, allied to a complaisant or agenda-driven media, and soon the narrative is so out of kilter your head spins. Throw a few conspiracy theories into the mix, and away we go down the rabbit hole into crazy territory.

At my age, I've learnt never to trust the ardent assertions of the pundits or politicians until I've verified and re-verified. Plus, the so-called experts frequently get it wrong. For example, as a teenager, I recall being told the planet would be overrun with people by 2000, and we'd face famine. Didn't happen. Instead, we've eliminated famine and are now heading for a population decrease.

Thirteen years ago, Prince Charles told us we had eight years to save the planet. Gordon Brown, in 2009, gave us 50 days. I've checked out the window, and the earth is still there.

Last year, we had a torrent of stories that China planned to invade Australia. Someone propagated this nonsense with intent and purpose. Likewise, the constant noise that Taiwan is moments away from an invasion.

The gullible and those predisposed to such stories lap this stuff up undeterred by the facts. We shouldn't be surprised by this phenomenon because it is hardly new. Witch burnings and fear of the possessed tell us that humans have engaged in spasms of collective irrationality down the ages.

Beginning in the 16th century, the Scots executed more than 2,500, mostly women, for witchcraft. The authorities viewed these events as a cosmic battle between god and the devil. In communities fed a lie by strident religious types, injected with fear, people had no hesitation strangling and burning women. This nonsense finally stopped around 1760.

Jump forward to 2022. Today, we get a diet of information skewed by the media outlets seeking our attention by eye-catching headlines. Meanwhile, politicians harness that process to their ends.

Accelerating the distortions are Internet algorithms that can lock us into a narrative. Such is the power of this conditioning that people dismiss as fake news dissonance-causing evidence that challenges their view or understanding.

At times like these, with drum-beating for war by hyperbole and dogmatic statements, it is helpful to cultivate neutrality and weigh the evidence. Always make sure you are not operating in a hall of mirrors, and ask are you prepared to burst the bubble of self-justification to see reality?
3 Comments
Chris Emmett
18/2/2022 02:09:10 pm

This teasing of the West is textbook, narcissistic behaviour and Western leaders have no choice but to feed it. If they do nothing, Putin will have to step things up in order to get the attention he craves. Putin cares little for the Russian people. Sanctions will affect neither him nor his inner circle so the threat carries little weight. The problem now is that the longer he keeps it all rolling, the weaker he’ll look if he steps back. The situation is very dangerous.

Reply
Willms
27/2/2022 03:53:20 pm

US-imposed sanctions against Russia do mainly cause hardship to the economy of Western Europe, and the are intended to do so. Cut them off the Russian market, cut them off Russian energy supplies, petroleum and gas. Bring them back under the iron heel of US domination.

The latest is to cut Russia from the Brussels based SWIFT, the international payments clearing center, so that Western customers can no longer pay for Russsian gas and oil, and thus push Gazprom etc to stop their deliveries.

This whole ear hystery was created by USA to prevent the second double-tube gas pipeline "Nord Stream 2" from starting deliveries. It was this war hysterie which turned out as a self fulfilling prophecy: The Kreml was successfully pushed to wage war against Ukraine. "When you cross this river," an antique Oracle told a mighty king, "you will destroy a big kingdom!" But the oracle did not say, that it would be his own.

Reply
Willms
28/2/2022 11:36:53 am

The striking likeness of this dog to Putin is extraordinary.

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    Walter De Havilland was one of the last of the colonial coppers. He served 35 years in the Royal Hong Kong Police and Hong Kong Police Force. He's long retired. 

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