UK Civil War? A Flight of Fancy.

"Arguably, the UK benefits from the legacy of the "Glorious Revolution" (1688), a pivotal event that allowed the political system to stay flexible and adaptable. 

In my long-read piece, "The UK is a tinder box, or are we all getting it wrong?" I take a journey through history, albeit abridged, to suggest that the UK has always faced challenges and has at times teetered on the brink of civil war or severe civil disorder. In support of this discussion, an examination of the flaws in the UK's politics, institutions and society is laid out.

Even so, it is essential to reflect that the country has consistently managed to overcome threats, which should bring a sense of optimism. 

While the current surge of material on YouTube and other platforms claiming that the country is on the brink of a civil war is interesting, provocative, and reflects a shift in mood, it is also somewhat naive. Bold claims that collapse is imminent appear exaggerated as clickbait.

Certainly, there is anger in the national mood. Yet, whether this will lead to civil war remains a matter for debate because the circumstances under which such anger could cause prolonged unrest seem distant. The question must be asked who would be the contesting parties, and what would the fight be for? It is not clear where the lines would be drawn for a sustained campaign.

David Betz, an academic, points out that it will not be our usual conception of civil war: it will be more Mogadishu than Marston Moor. Low-level inter-group conflicts that continue indefinitely. And the divide is likely to be along racial lines. The potential for a slow-burning interracial conflict always exists and can be observed in Northern Ireland. Vigilante patrols and similar activities are examples of this ongoing process. 


Fortunately, in the past, when civil war threatened, the system corrected itself each time. The General Strike of 1926, although not an armed conflict, was a nationwide, coordinated uprising by the labour movement that posed a significant challenge to the government's authority. About 1.7 million workers from key industries went on strike. 

The government regarded it as a revolutionary threat. The army was ready to intervene, and there were concerns about a Bolshevik-style uprising. The strike itself lasted only nine days before ending

Furthermore, the current mood is poor in part because PM Starmer's government has had a disastrous first year in office. They have broken promises, made U-turns, and alienated their core voters. From the outset, Starmer didn’t have a robust mandate, and what support he enjoyed he threw away. As a result, Starmer's popularity ratings are the lowest on record for a sitting Prime Minister. (May 2025, YouGov). 

Throughout history, since the country had some democratic elements, the system with its two-party setup and Parliament's sovereignty was able to self-correct. Now, with the rise of Reform and the decline of the two-party system, it remains to be seen whether the centre can hold this time.

Undoubtedly, the current issue of the day is the level of both legal and illegal migration, along with the associated problem of asylum seekers. The hotels used to house migrants, mostly fighting-age males, are at the centre of public anger and volatile government policy. 

Moreover, allegations that migrants have attacked and allegedly raped young girls is fuelling hostility. Arrests have been made that give crebility to these allegations. Against the background of the state's failure to address the Pakistani rape gangs, this issue remains an open wound. 

Also, beneath all this, the struggles of working people arise from decades of economic neglect, austerity, stagnant wages, declining public services, and a political class that has consistently failed to truly represent the British people. The anger is understandable. For sure, it manifested itself in the Brexit vote.

The NHS, once a symbol of national pride, is now in a permanent state of crisis. Waiting lists are at record levels, and many people cannot access prompt healthcare. 

Libraries, youth centres, and community services were decimated, leaving working-class areas destitute. Austerity didn't just cut budgets — it crushed hope. For millions, it meant choosing between heating and eating, relying on food banks, while watching their communities collapse.  

As public opinion shifts, trust in politicians reaches a historic low. The police, courts, and other institutions are experiencing a similar decline in their reputation. Two-tier policing, rising crime rates, and censorship all contribute to the increasing dissatisfaction. 

And yet, arguably, the UK benefits from the legacy of the "Glorious Revolution" (1688), a pivotal event that allowed the political system to stay flexible and adaptable. The overthrow of King James II and the rise of William III and Mary II established key principles with little bloodshed. Parliament was the highest political authority, not the monarch. 

All this meant that political conflicts would take place within the chambers of Westminster, not on the streets. The subsequent Bill of Rights (1689) limited the powers of the monarch and safeguarded the rights of Parliament and individuals, establishing a framework for resolving disputes through law rather than force.

Additionally, British political culture has traditionally favoured gradual, pragmatic reform over sudden, ideologically driven upheaval. There is a strong tendency to "muddle through" issues as they come up with practical compromises, rather than sticking to a grand revolutionary theory.

Sometimes, the system faces intense testing and pressure, but it usually remains resilient. A small example from this week is the court ruling that using hotels to house migrants is unlawful, thereby addressing community concerns and compelling the government to amend its policies. 

Likewise, statements by the Home Secretary, Yvette Cooper, emphasising that addressing the number of asylum seekers is important for restoring order, are encouraging. 

Therefore, the current anger might ease if PM Starmer recognises he must prioritise the needs of the British people over migrants. Otherwise, everything remains uncertain because a strong wave of dissent is growing. 

How that anger dissipates or manifests into something more troublesome remains to be seen.