The UK's bumper summer - a predictor of big changes to come?

"In Hong Kong, mass arrivals of asylum seekers and illegal migrants led to housing in closed camps"

A summer of unrest is rapidly unfolding in the UK, marked by significant protests over the housing of asylum seekers in hotels. Local anger is on the rise, particularly after the disturbing attacks on girls in the community. In the most recent incident, two Afghan men are accused of raping a 12-year-old girl, further fueling public outrage.

For some time now, academics have warned politicians that the conditions for civil war are emerging. To the layperson, that might seem too pessimistic, as the violence so far has been limited. However, police action, including a two-tier approach to enforcement, is not helping the situation. 

Whether two-tier policing is real or not doesn't matter because perception is reality, and polls show many citizens believe it's happening. During recent protests outside an asylum hotel in Epping, police escorted in the counter-protesters to face residents. When overwhelmed, the officers then bused the counter-protesters away in police vehicles.

Yet, the asylum seeker debacle is only one aspect of a series of factors forming a perfect storm as the struggling Labour government enters its second year in office. Other issues include:

• Economic hardship – rising inflation, stagnant wages, and cuts to public services have fueled frustration, especially in deprived communities.
• A housing crisis, with most young people priced out of buying a home, whilst rents soar.
• Crime is spiralling out of control – only 3 per cent of citizens have confidence that the police can tackle crime (YouGov 2025). Shoplifting is allowed to continue unchecked, while crime detection rates remain below 10 per cent.
• Political Discontent – Public anger over government policies, corruption scandals, or perceived injustice has weakened trust in all politicians. The Post Office scandal, the tainted-blood scandal, dodgy contracts for PPE during Covid… the list continues.
• The Prime Minister, Kier Starmer, came to power claiming to be a 'clean' man. Yet, within months, he has been exposed as accepting free housing, suits, and glasses. His polling numbers are now in the toilet. 
• The country's finances are insoluble without huge cuts and massive tax rises.
• The hot weather, school holidays, and the increasing polarisation in society are prompting people to act.

If a significant disorder occurs, it would probably stem from a combination of these factors. However, the catalyst is likely to be the illegal migrant crisis and the government's failure to respond.

With good weather, daily arrivals by small boats from France exceed 1000. These asylum seekers (read illegal migrants) are mostly fighting-age young men from cultures that treat women as chattel. Most arrivals come from Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Eritrea.

The backlog in asylum processing is estimated to be around 109,500 as of March 2025. However, that figure is misleading because it appears the government has used various 'classification of cases' procedures to hide the actual number. The real figure may be closer to a quarter of a million. 

It takes an average of 48 weeks to process a case, and this is before any appeals occur. Hiring staff to handle the screening process is a significant challenge, while asylum seekers are being trained on how to manipulate the system. The entire process is flawed, and the UK taxpayer foots the bill.

The taxpayer spends £8 million every day just on accommodation. Meanwhile, a report by the National Audit Office states that an estimated £15.3 billion will be spent over the next ten years. This amount could fund 30 new hospitals or 150,00 affordable homes.

In some boroughs, up to one in twenty residents are migrants who arrived within a year. The societal dislocation caused by such an unprecedented influx is a disaster. 

Yet, beyond minor policy tweaks and performative measures, such as banning internet adverts by people smugglers, Kier Starmer's government seems to have no real solutions. His 'smash the smuggling gangs' initiative hasn't worked, and the public is aware of it: 75% of Britons say the government is 'failing' on migration (YouGov 2024).

In Hong Kong, mass arrivals of asylum seekers and illegal migrants led to housing in camps (including eventually closed camps for the Vietnamese) or immediate return for those coming from the Mainland. For Mainland arrivals from the early 1980s onwards, this process was swift, with repatriation occurring the next day—avoiding prolonged scrutiny of claims and appeals that would otherwise consume resources. 

There is compelling evidence that closed camps can deter arrivals, although I doubt the UK has the appetite to protect its borders with such a measure. Hence, the politicians are left with an unresolvable situation and boiling public anger. 

No wonder many now believe that the social contract is broken, as they shift their support to Nigel Farage and his Reform Party. Although a national election remains some time away, all signs indicate Farage could win a majority. 

The challenge for Farage is that Reform lacks a solid 'hinterland' of experience necessary for a ruling party. Therefore, as Trump did with the Republicans, Farage will eventually need to subsume the Conservatives to provide the bulwark he requires to govern.

Still, there is another aspect that many are overlooking: Reform support is anchored in the English constituencies, as voters reject both Labour and the Conservative Party. It is different in Wales and Scotland, where national parties hold Reform in check.

A possible scenario unfolds as follows: as Labour fails to deliver, a growing school of thought emerges that divergence will once again energise the issue of Scottish independence and prompt Wales to follow suit. A restructured Scottish National Party under new leadership rides high, posing a threat to the union, with the 2029 election a pivotal point. 

Some academics suggest that the breakup of the United Kingdom is a natural consequence of the decline of the British Empire. While the British Empire was a project of Great Britain, comprising England, Scotland, and Wales, England held the dominant position due to its larger population, economy, and political influence. 

The argument goes that now the Empire has retreated to the British Isles, separation from Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland seems to be the next logical step. 
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Only time will tell.