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Reflections on recent events, plus the occasional fact free rant unfiltered by rational argument. 

"If you want to read a blog to get a sense of what is going on in Hong Kong these days or a blog that would tell you wh at life was like living in colonial Hong Kong, this blog, WALTER'S BLOG, fits the bill."  Hong Kong Blog Review

28/1/2023 2 Comments

Tanks For Nothing

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"Mission creep, once it starts, can gather pace and prove impossible to hold back"
In his 1967 novel, "Why we fight in Vietnam," Norman Mailer identified "corrupt capitalism, imperialism, and aggressive hyper-masculinity" as causes of war that bled American innocence dry. Add to that profound misunderstanding.

America entered a civil war it couldn't comprehend or win. Atop that, all its fancy weapons systems, analytics and heroics made no difference. Afghanistan is another example.


All this came back to me as the latest evolution of war in Ukraine hauled into view. Yet, cutting through the propaganda fed to the mainstream media (uncritically lapped up by supine editors) remains a challenge.

When the history of the First World War was written, many reasons fell away for the onset of the slaughter leaving the assassination of Arch-Duke Ferdinand as the pivot point. Likewise, for the Second World War, people point to the invasion of Poland as the starting point. However, they ignore the fact that Japan was already rampaging through China, before it went on across Asia.

I do wonder what future historians will conclude, if any are around, when the text of the next big one gets written. Will it be the invasion of Ukraine or the formal recognition that NATO is at war with Russia? I ask because the facade of the proxy war has slipped.

In the past weeks, we've had a steady diet of news about supplying tanks to Ukraine. I'll explain why Germany faced tremendous pressure to provide its formidable Leopard II. At times, even blackmail by way of reminding Germany about its moral duty after the Second World War.

In supporting Ukraine, the Germans are generally considered the most reluctant mainstream NATO ally. Since the outset of the invasion, they've prevaricated. Mocked for offering to send thousands of helmets in the early days, they've shown a distinct unease at getting involved. Hence, some strategic bullying proved necessary to whip them into line. Commanding the moral height of shaming Germany is the latter-day Übermensch.

Zelensky, the darling of the West's politicians who bask in his reflected glory, demanded Leopard II tanks. He again demonstrated a superb command of the narrative by framing the request as 'defending the freedom-loving west.'

Still, months ago, Biden and NATO asserted that the provision of tanks was impossible. So what has changed? Well, despite all claims to the contrary, Ukraine is losing ground while the Russians continue throwing missiles around. In a war of attrition, Ukraine will struggle to hold on.

Additionally, sanctions aren't working, and the Russian people remain behind Putin or are at least indifferent. Sure, some have fled to avoid military service, but not in the numbers that will make a significant difference. Likewise, Biden's assertion he'd collapse the Russian economy has proven hollow. If anything, the sanctions have hardened attitudes in Russia by affirming the view that the West seeks to destroy them.

Meantime, India, China and many others are more than willing to take Russian oil as Europeans see their fuel bills go through the roof. With the U.S. threatening their interests, the emerging superpowers will continue to play a canny game and leverage developments to their advantage.

So, why is Ukraine so keen to get its hands on the Leopard II? To answer that question, you must know that wars are won by logistics and by making things as simple as possible. And in the Western narrative, the right tank could be the game changer.

The Leopard II, reckoned to be the best tank for the job, is available in numbers in Germany and elsewhere in the region, with estimates of 2000 ready for use. Unlike the over-complicated U.S. M1 Abrams, with its fancy jet engine and sophisticated fire control systems, the Leopard II has a diesel engine, can move fast and has a decent gun.

Also, training and maintenance for the Leopard II will prove easier. A well drilled crew can do a full, in the field, engine change in 20 minutes.  But, I have to say, none of the tanks offered by NATO nations will soon reach the battlefield. So don't get fooled by the hype. It may take months, if not years, before the full complement is ready for action.

Meanwhile, to spare its politician's blushes from the reluctant German people, the U.S. gives political top cover by providing some 30 M.1 tanks. Although U.S. officials admit, these won't arrive for at least six months. Last year, the U.S. made much noise around supplying the Patriot missile defence system to Ukraine to stop crazy Vlad's rockets. But, unfortunately, the system still hasn't arrived.

The Brits have made two Challengers immediately available in what appears to be another piece of window dressing. The Challenger is an excellent tank, but two won't make much military difference. Another 12 are said to come from Britain's paltry number of around 240. It's reported that poor maintenance means it will take time to get them ready. Only months ago, Britain contemplated scrapping the lot.

With Leopards from Germany, Spain, Canada and Poland, a few Challengers and French tanks, the Ukrainians could, in time, make up a credible force of over 130 tanks. Germany indicated it could provide 90 Leopards; add to that 14 from Poland.

Still, when you cut through all the media trumpeting of Biden and NATO, a few home truths need asserting. The supply of these tanks, whether Challengers, Leopards, Abrams or whatever, makes no difference to the immediate battle on the ground.

Why do I say that? Well, for starters, such a mix of tanks will need long supply lines, different maintenance regimes, and a wide variety of spares and technicians. All this takes time and creates complications in an already stretched Ukrainian military. Plus, it begs the question of whether NATO technicians must be close to the battlefront to service the tanks. If yes, that raises the possibility of their direct involvement.

Let us not forget that the Ukrainians received about 300 former Warsaw Pact T-72 tanks last year. It's not clear how these fared.
​

Generally seen as offensive rather than defensive weapons, tanks can make a difference. Yet, they also need infantry deployed with them to provide cover from the modern and potent anti-tank missiles. Last year, the Russians relearned that lesson the hard way. As a result, how Ukraine can integrate these various tanks, with different capabilities, into a coordinated, effective, mechanised unit remains unclear.

Of course, the danger in supplying more potent weapons is that NATO is pouring fuel on the fire and making negotiations harder. All wars end in negotiations, and as the first anniversary of Putin's illegal invasion arrives, the chance of talks is receding.

Mission creep, once it starts, can gather pace and prove impossible to hold back. Now, having a promise of his tanks, Zelensky wants long-range missiles and fighter jets.

Shortly, Russian soldiers could again be cut down by German tanks. Putin will doubtlessly summon up the weight of history to claim the Germans are on the march. Arguably, NATO handed him a propaganda victory. No wonder the Germans were reluctant to act.

Returning to Mailer's book, he provides a potent reminder of how nations become entrapped by aggression once the war machine rolls. As his protagonist, Randy Jethroe, stalks a bear (how apt) through the woods, tracking and eventually killing the animal, he loses his soul — "violence is as American as cherry pie". The next day he ships to fight in Vietnam, and we hear no more of him.

On this bleak scene we now gaze to ask, is this the point when it all kicks off? It's no coincidence that last week, the doomsday clock advanced 90 seconds towards midnight.
2 Comments
Jeremy Stone
30/1/2023 03:48:15 pm

Good article Walter. Here's another good article on the same topic and in similar vein. Meanwhile, following his ignoble retreat from Kabul, Biden cannot afford to have two monumental cock-ups on his hands during his -- hopefully, last -- term in office; and so I think the war in Ukraine will drag on until January 2025, after the next US election and when a new US administration will be sworn into office. Perhaps then the new administration will go to the negotiating table to stop further blood being shed?

https://johnmenadue.com/ukraine-the-ignominious-unravelling-has-begun/

Reply
Jeremy
30/1/2023 05:05:51 pm

The decision that Germany and the US will allow the export of M1 Abrams and Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, alongside the British Challenger 2 tanks promised in mid-January is the culmination of NATO’s policy to assist Ukraine and a symbolic step in the west’s response to Putin’s aggression.

The export of German and US tanks to Ukraine is not without risk, both real and symbolic. In purely military terms, well-trained, well-led and properly-motivated Ukrainian tank crews operating the Leopard 2 or M1 Abrams will be better protected, have better firepower and be more manoeuvrable than their Russian counterparts. If the Ukrainians cope with the fact that they will need different ammunition, spare parts and possibly fuel, they will enhance their capability to defend their territory.

Symbolically, the presence of US and German tanks in Ukraine is problematic. NATO’s cold war doctrine was based on the experience of German tanks in WW2—especially during the Wehrmacht’s desperate retreat across Ukraine in 1943-44, when small groups of German tanks successfully counterattacked, delaying the Soviet Red Army’s advance.

The presence of Abrams and Leopard 2s in Ukraine will recreate the never-fought battles of the Cold War with tanks and tactics designed for the clash of NATO and the Warsaw Pact armies across the German plains in the 1980s.

In the 1970s, NATO and the Soviet Union faced each other across the East and West German border. Leaders in both blocs became aware of a growing discrepancy in conventional forces, a crucial component of which was the “tank gap”. By the end of the decade, the Soviets had 10,000 more tanks in Europe than NATO did.

Then, Soviet T-64 and T-72 tanks were superior to contemporary NATO models in terms of armour, firepower and manoeuvrability. If the Soviets had invaded, NATO would not have been able to stop the Soviet’s larger conventional forces and would—sooner rather than later—have been forced to use nuclear weapons to avoid defeat. US-German attempts to produce a new tank—the MBT-70—failed miserably in the late 1960s. In the next decade, both developed their own solutions to close the tank gap.

In 1979, West Germany’s Bundeswehr, accepted the new Leopard 2 into service, followed three years later by the arrival in Germany of America’s new M1 Abrams tank. Both were better protected, faster and had more effective guns than their predecessors. But NATO’s armoured doctrine still relied on quality than quantity to meet the Soviet threat.

In 1984, with the new generation of NATO tanks—including the British Challenger 1—in service, Soviet tanks still outnumbered their opponents by three to one. Nevertheless, despite the appearance of a new Soviet “super tank”, the T-80, NATO was closing the tank gap. It also developed new fast-moving combined arms tactics, designed to strike deep into the attacking Warsaw Pact forces.

By the end of the decade, NATO was confident that its tanks could blunt any Soviet invasion without needing to push the nuclear button.

No matter, the Cold War and the Soviet threat to western Europe collapsed with the Berlin Wall. The M1 Abrams and British Challenger 1 proved their mettle—and the validity of NATO armoured doctrine—in the deserts of Iraq and Kuwait during the 1991 Gulf War.

In the following decades, NATO main battle tanks—the M1 Abrams, the Challenger 1 and 2, and the Leopard 2—– were deployed in peacekeeping operations in the Balkans or fighting insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan. Indeed, in George W Bush’s “New World Order”, the main battle tank seemed to be a relic from the past. In the battle against terrorists and non-state actors, drones and “smart” bombs were more relevant than 70-ton tanks.

This changed in 2014 with the Russian annexation of Crimea and the war in Donbas. The US again sent their Abrams to Germany and German-made Leopard 2s were deployed to the Baltic states as part of NATO’s new forward-presence battlegroups.

From 2014 until the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, NATO states, including Denmark, Germany, Hungary, Poland and the Netherlands, expanded their tank forces and refocused from counterinsurgency to fighting an adversary on a conventional battlefield.

However, this decision pans out on the battlefield, it promises to hand Putin an important propaganda victory—and one which he will exploit to the full.

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    Walter De Havilland was one of the last of the colonial coppers. He served 35 years in the Royal Hong Kong Police and Hong Kong Police Force. He's long retired. 

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