Syria Burns

"This imbroglio has left Western nations in a tizzy."

The Syrian conflict is a puzzle so intricate that even those who claim to understand it don't. It's a constantly evolving situation filled with unknowns and complexities. My interest in the region sparked about 15 years ago during a counterterrorism course, which only scratched the surface.  

The overthrow of the Assad regime is not just a local issue but a global one with far-reaching implications. It involves many countries and ethnic groups, making it complex and urgent. Turkey, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, the U.S., Russia, Iran, and various Arab nations are all players in this game. When you add the diverse ethnic groups, including Kurds, Assyrians, Armenians, Turks, and Circassians, the picture becomes even more convoluted.

A few context-setting details: President Bashar al-Assad ruled the country since 2000 with his British-born wife.  He got the job because his elder brother died in a car crash in 1994.  President Hafez al-Assad groomed the elder son for the presidency.  As a spare, Bashar was called back from the U.K. and took over in 2000 when his father died.  Initially, the West lauded Bashar as a more liberal leader who would help bring peace to the region.  That didn't work out.

The Assad regime, operating more like a gangster enterprise, has turned Syria into a narco-state, with half of the GDP coming from the production of illegal drugs.  This exploitation of the country's resources for personal gain is a stark illustration of the regime's avarice. Their brutality is legendary, including using chemical weapons on the populace.  

In 2011, the Syrian civil war ignited, involving a host of groups, leading to the formation of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), which is not a single entity but factions brought together to remove Assad.  Without Assad as a common enemy, these cliques would have been fighting each other.  For decades, the civil war was primarily frozen, with the Syrian government propped up by Russia and Iran. Russia has bases in Syria, which is vital to supplying its troops in Africa. 

For many years, the West cooperated (covertly) with the Assad regime in its fight against Al Qaeda. This cooperation was part of a complex geopolitical strategy, as Syria was also on the list of states sponsoring terrorism. This dual relationship with Syria further muddies the waters. 

In the past two weeks, a former Al Qaeda affiliate, Ahmed Hussein al-Shar, who uses the name Al-Joulani, has led the revolt that finally toppled Assad.  As far as I can tell, this sudden triumphant surge surprised everyone. 

Al-Joulani is the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a U.S.-designated terrorist group. You wouldn't want this lot running your neighbourhood policing. 

Al-Joulani is now rebranding himself as a moderate, inclusive leader who can work with the West.  Thus, he is busy dismissing his Al-Qaeda ties and Daesh collaboration.  He's intimating that he has put his ISIS past behind him as a youthful exuberance. The sort of youthful exuberance that called for the death of all Americans, a jihad against Israelis and other non-believers. 

And yes, there is the small matter of the U.S. bounty of $10 million on Al-Joulani’s head. That appears to be forgotten now, which calls into question a host of issues, including how you work with folks you called terrorists and sought to kill. Then, overnight, you embrace them for a short-term gain. 

This imbroglio has left Western nations in a tizzy.  Should they embrace this man?  Can he hold the Syrian nation together?  As usual, the U.S. will decide, and the Europeans will follow. Britain’s unceasing obsession with the ‘special relationship’ means it will do as the U.S. says. However, those shifting sands expose British servitude with Trump heading to the White House. 

Meanwhile, CNN and other Western media outlets are already busy whitewashing Al-Joulani's ISIS and Al-Qaeda links. 

Given the complexity and gravity of the situation, the West should exercise caution. At the same time, Washington and others are celebrating the loss of Russian and Iranian influence. That cheer could be short-lived — what happens next in Syria may be worse.  

With Assad out of the way, the U.S., Israel and Turkey have decided to settle some unfinished business by bombing targets across the country.  This effort aims at degrading terrorist groups, destroying weapons and sending a signal that Syria won't be a base for attacks.  

Unfortunately, for people on the ground, it looks like hostile nations are taking advantage with no respite from their troubles.  For example, the Israelis have sunk the entire Syrian navy in a matter of days and occupied territory. 

Meanwhile, some rebel groups are backed by Turkey, while others receive support from the U.S. and Gulf states.  Control over territory in Syria is highly fluid, with different groups frequently gaining and losing ground.  Whether central control can imposed is debatable.

The decades of conflict have resulted in a severe humanitarian crisis, with nine million Syrians displaced and making their way to Europe, prompting calls to close borders. This people movement helped destabilise European politics, with the ripple impacts still playing out. 

For sure, new threats will continue to emerge, such as the resurgence of extremist groups and the ongoing tensions between Kurdish forces and Turkish-backed factions.   

So, while the West has a form of optimism bias when evil regimes fall, it's crucial to remember the lessons of recent history. Iraq or Afghanistan, anyone?