Selective Amnesia

"Covid doesn't adhere to any political doctrine"

Western leaders are condemning China's strict lockdowns to tackle Covid, with British PM Rishi Sunak stating that keeping people in their homes over Covid rates and penalising anyone breaking lockdown laws was "shocking and unacceptable". 

Let's pause for a moment — isn't that precisely what the U.K. and many Western countries did in 2020? Didn't thousands of old folks die in care homes without the comforting hand of a relative to hold? At one stage in 2020, the U.K. recorded 68 care home Covid deaths daily. 

I know that Sunak has a passing resemblance to Mr Spock of Star Trek fame, but is he living on the same planet as the rest of us, or does he have selective amnesia? No, he's weaponising the issue to appease elements within his party as he clings to power in a deeply fragmented government.

As I pointed out in an earlier blog, Covid doesn't adhere to any political doctrine nor give a hoot for any policies we humans may devise. It cares not a jot for politics, the correct ideology or a party line. All it does is seek to spread, evolve and seek to spread more. It's Darwinism in action.

And yes, while keeping out Covid once looked like a good plan and served China well in the early stages of the pandemic by buying time - the approach's limitations are now clear. 

With zero Covid, you eventually need to open up and allow people to return to normal. But, before that, you need to moderate the impact with enough people vaccinated and resistant to the virus. 

Very few people in China have acquired immunity through prior exposure, and vaccination rates among the elderly are low. Hence, opening up risks a massive surge in cases, yet keeping the system in place invites possible economic and social problems. It's a tough call to make.

The leaders in Beijing must fear a significant surge in Covid that will impact the elderly, given the low vaccination rate. Hong Kong saw the same effect earlier this year when we topped the league for the number of Covid deaths per 1000. And Hong Kong has a better health system; hence, the impact on the Mainland would be far more severe. 

With pressure building on many fronts, China is not only making decisions that will impact the domestic front. If they get it wrong, and the Chinese economy takes a significant hit, the whole world will feel it. 

China currently exports roughly close to 15 per cent of the world's total exports; often items countries can't get elsewhere. For example, the U.K. relies on China for lateral flow tests and many other medical products. As a result, NHS spending on imported medical supplies from China has tripled since 2019.

How long will it take for the West's politicians and the MSM scribblers to admit the critical reason for this state of affairs? The labour cost differential between China and the West keeps the likes of Apple and the thousands of Western companies making or having made stuff in China on their behalf.

How China steers a course through the current challenges is difficult to see. Yet, those in the West enticed by the protests and China's difficulties need to temper their hubris.

Be careful what you wish for.