"Why Tango in Paris, when you can Foxtrot in Kowloon?"
  • Walter's Blog.
  • Home
  • Introduction
  • About Walter
    • 1980 Joining Up - Grafton Street >
      • Arrival and First Impressions
      • First Week
      • Training
      • Passing Out
    • Yaumati Cowboy >
      • Getting on the Streets
      • Tempo of the City
      • Jumpers, pill poppers and the indoor BBQ
      • Into a Minefield.
    • Why Tango in Paris, when you can Foxtrot in Kowloon? >
      • Baptism By Fire
      • Kai Tak with Mrs Thatcher.
      • Home; The Boy Returns
  • 1984 - 1986
    • PTU Instructor & Getting Hitched
    • Having a go: SDU
    • Starting a Chernobyl family
    • EOD - Don't touch anything
    • Semen Stains and the rules
  • 1987 to 1992 - Should I Stay or Go?
    • Blue Lights, Sirens & Grenades
    • Drugs, Broken Kids & A Plane Crash
    • 600 Happy Meals Please!
    • Hong Kong's Best Insurance
    • Riding the Iron Horse
  • Crime in Hong Kong
    • Falling Crime Rates - Why?
    • Triads
  • History of Hong Kong Policing
    • History 1841 to 1941
    • History 1945 to 1967
    • Anatomy of the 50 cent Riot - 1966
    • The Fall of a Commissioner.
    • History 1967 to 1980
    • Three Wise Men from the West
    • The Blue Berets.
    • The African Korps and other tribes.
    • Getting About - Transport.
    • A Pub in every station
    • Bullshit Bingo & Meetings
    • Godber - The one who nearly got away.
    • Uncle Ho
  • Top 20 Films
    • 2001 - A Space Odyssey.
    • The Godfather.
    • Blade Runner
    • Kes
    • Star Wars
    • Aliens
    • Ferris Bueller's Day Off
    • The Life of Brian
    • Dr Strangelove.
    • Infernal Affairs
    • Bridge on the River Kwai.
    • This Is Spinal Tap.
    • Chung King Express
    • An Officer and a Gentleman
    • PTU
    • Contact
    • Saving Private Ryan
    • Family Guy Star Wars
    • Zulu
    • Hard Day's Night
  • The Long Read
    • How The Walls Come Down
    • War in Ukraine - the narrative and other stuff.
    • The Hidden Leader
    • The Big Game
  • Walter's Blog.
  • Home
  • Introduction
  • About Walter
    • 1980 Joining Up - Grafton Street >
      • Arrival and First Impressions
      • First Week
      • Training
      • Passing Out
    • Yaumati Cowboy >
      • Getting on the Streets
      • Tempo of the City
      • Jumpers, pill poppers and the indoor BBQ
      • Into a Minefield.
    • Why Tango in Paris, when you can Foxtrot in Kowloon? >
      • Baptism By Fire
      • Kai Tak with Mrs Thatcher.
      • Home; The Boy Returns
  • 1984 - 1986
    • PTU Instructor & Getting Hitched
    • Having a go: SDU
    • Starting a Chernobyl family
    • EOD - Don't touch anything
    • Semen Stains and the rules
  • 1987 to 1992 - Should I Stay or Go?
    • Blue Lights, Sirens & Grenades
    • Drugs, Broken Kids & A Plane Crash
    • 600 Happy Meals Please!
    • Hong Kong's Best Insurance
    • Riding the Iron Horse
  • Crime in Hong Kong
    • Falling Crime Rates - Why?
    • Triads
  • History of Hong Kong Policing
    • History 1841 to 1941
    • History 1945 to 1967
    • Anatomy of the 50 cent Riot - 1966
    • The Fall of a Commissioner.
    • History 1967 to 1980
    • Three Wise Men from the West
    • The Blue Berets.
    • The African Korps and other tribes.
    • Getting About - Transport.
    • A Pub in every station
    • Bullshit Bingo & Meetings
    • Godber - The one who nearly got away.
    • Uncle Ho
  • Top 20 Films
    • 2001 - A Space Odyssey.
    • The Godfather.
    • Blade Runner
    • Kes
    • Star Wars
    • Aliens
    • Ferris Bueller's Day Off
    • The Life of Brian
    • Dr Strangelove.
    • Infernal Affairs
    • Bridge on the River Kwai.
    • This Is Spinal Tap.
    • Chung King Express
    • An Officer and a Gentleman
    • PTU
    • Contact
    • Saving Private Ryan
    • Family Guy Star Wars
    • Zulu
    • Hard Day's Night
  • The Long Read
    • How The Walls Come Down
    • War in Ukraine - the narrative and other stuff.
    • The Hidden Leader
    • The Big Game
Search by typing & pressing enter

YOUR CART

Walter's Blog

"But how can you live and have no story to tell?" Fyodor Dostoevsky
Picture
Reflections on recent events, plus the occasional fact free rant unfiltered by rational argument. 

"If you want to read a blog to get a sense of what is going on in Hong Kong these days or a blog that would tell you wh at life was like living in colonial Hong Kong, this blog, WALTER'S BLOG, fits the bill."  Hong Kong Blog Review

16/8/2021 3 Comments

Run Away!!

Picture
"A supposedly highly-trained Afghan army melted away without a fight"
How to best sum up the West's war and intervention in Afghanistan; hubris, arrogance, and a complete failure? Yep, that kind of captures the big picture. 

Of course, the Americans are taking most of the flak for the bungled withdraw. But, all the same, I must say that NATO countries are equally culpable for this tangled mess.

Today, a ragtag army of Taliban fighters, armed only with AK47's and RPG7s, is consolidating control of the country. Twenty years of battle with the most sophisticated armies the West could field has these medieval fighters as victors. 

All the helicopters, jets, drones, satellites, integrated command and control systems and special forces couldn't defeat blokes wearing cheap sports shoes, riding around in pick-up trucks. 

Meanwhile, a supposedly highly-trained Afghan army melted away without a fight. It never had much of a stomach for battle, and with the West gone, the smell of defeat hung in the air. Soldiers abandoned their posts, changed into civilian clothes and headed home.

Why did it come to this? Undoubtedly, the military staff colleges and think tanks will dwell on that question for decades to come. Pundits will earn PhDs, books will come forth, as reputations get polished and trashed in equal numbers. 

These assessments will throw in Sun Tzu (孫子) — 'know your enemy, understand yourself and win a thousand battles', plus a bit of 'winning without fighting'. Supplement that with some Carl von Clausewitz and a smidgen of Machiavelli, and you've got intellectual heft. 

Nonetheless, in the end, it comes down to a complete lack of comprehension and commitment.

No amount of rumination by professors and soldier-scholars will change that assessment.

Because, at its core, the mission was unclear. Moreover, holding a few remote compounds does not constitute a victory. Likewise, sitting inside a secure 'green zone' or at guarded airbases gives one the false impression of control. Still, the Taliban waited with patience outside the perimeter. 

Even a meagre understanding of Afghan history and past wars should give pause for caution. Perhaps they don't teach Kipling at school anymore, him being too colonial and imperial.  

I have no idea if the Taliban are adherents of Sun Tzu. What is clear, they've followed his guiding principle; make time your ally. They waited, knowing the West would grow tired of the war.

Yet, the biggest failing is political. For that, Biden is in the direct firing line, along with Johnson and the NATO leaders. Other culprits are Bush, Blair and much of the Western establishment for gamely going along. 

The politicians sowed the seeds of this debacle decades ago with a failure to plan. What was the ultimate aim of the campaign? Was that goal achievable, and did anyone have an exit strategy? Because fleeing in the night doesn't work as a confidence builder for those you leave behind. 

To all these questions, the answer is clear. The initial mission to rout Al-Qaeda from its Afghan base succeeded. That was the time to leave. Instead, the mission morphed towards nation-building, a fraught prospect in a country that runs on tribal loyalties. Anchoring all this was much talk of getting girls into school — a worthy initiative but not enough. So the only conclusion to draw is that a failure to plan led to a failure!

People scramble to Kabul airport as helicopters lift off from a U.S. Embassy once again. No matter how many times U.S. secretary of state Blinken rejects comparisons with Saigon 1975, the imagery defeats him. 

Whether Afghanistan reverts and becomes a base for terrorism is one worry, the other is the fate of the people who put their faith in the West. Unfortunately, the signs are not promising. 

If Afghanistan descends into chaos, you could argue this serves the West's geopolitical interests by stirring trouble on China's border, especially as Afghanistan abuts the sensitive Xinjiang region. 

Leaving also removes a distraction for the forthcoming U.S. mid-term elections. Biden would like the weight of Afghanistan off his shoulders, although Iraq may yet prove a heavier burden. 

All of this is at the cost of allies questioning whether they can trust the West to stay the course. As I've previously discussed, countries in Asia are treading a careful line between China and the U.S.A. as that 'cold war' escalates. So what conclusions will they draw from this sudden departure? 

Also asking questions are families in the West, who sent their sons and daughters, mostly from post-industrial towns, to die in this futile effort. They deserve answer. But, as the media swirl goes on, where is Tony Blair and Alistair Campbell? Always so ready to offer their sage advice, these charlatans stand damned by their silence.

A mea culpa from Blair would be a start, but I'm not holding my breath.
3 Comments
Keith Dryden
16/8/2021 03:57:29 pm

Most of the Taliban are Pashtun tribesmen as, indeed is true the army in Afghanistan. Surely nobody expected members of the same tribe to take up arms against each other.

Reply
Chris Emmett
16/8/2021 05:06:06 pm

The key phrase is ‘…failing to plan…’ The Hong Kong Police Tactical Unit mantra was, ‘Failing to plan is planning to fail’. It’s a shame the Free World’s leaders didn’t attend the PTU cadre course.

Reply
Gloria Bing
18/8/2021 04:18:24 pm

Not sure that having achieved the initial mission would also have been a good time to leave: as soon as the West had dealt with Al Qaeda and left, Al Qaeda would have been straight back in and, much as they are now, celebrating a victory over the infidel. The real folly of the West was not realising that if you go into Afghanistan (or any other country) you can only win when the last insurgent gives up. Stability is a means to an end not an end in itself and the West - the US in particular - seems to think this is achieved by constantly playing shoot-em-up. Same in Iraq: rather than bringing all but the worst Ba'athists into the fold the US just created more insurgents.

Reply

Your comment will be posted after it is approved.


Leave a Reply.

    Author

    Walter De Havilland was one of the last of the colonial coppers. He served 35 years in the Royal Hong Kong Police and Hong Kong Police Force. He's long retired. 

    Archives

    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017

    RSS Feed

Home

Introduction

Contact Walter

Copyright © 2015