Walter's Blog |
Reflections on recent events, plus the occasional fact
free rant unfiltered by rational argument. |
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12/9/2022 3 Comments Is Britain's Winter Coming? "Is Britain in danger of slipping further on the world stage due to self-inflicted woes?" Over seven decades ago, a twenty-five-year lady ascended the British throne. All the Empire's splendour adorned the moment, the streets filled with cheering as the music of mass bands echoed across London.
At the time, the country still had the remnants of a large global footprint with military forces to back it up. But, none of this hid the fact that Britain was broke and in debt to the new superpower, the U.S. The war debt the U.K. owed America was finally paid off in 2006 when the Chancellor of the Exchequer Ed Balls handed over US$83M. The death of Queen Elizabeth II and the accompanying reflection that appraise her reign bring these issues into sharp focus. Is Britain in danger of slipping further on the world stage due to self-inflicted woes? Without a doubt, Britain's influence as a world power waned during Elizabeth II's tenure. This process was brought forth by the privations of World War II, the forfeiture of the Empire, and, more recently, accelerated by Brexit. You may not like or agree with these opinions, and while I take no pleasure in expressing them, I hold them true. I claim no unique insight, except the benefit of distance allows me to see the downward evolution more clearly than those who witness it daily. Trips home bring the changes into clear view. Also, I may add that ignoring what is happening serves no purpose. For starters, no matter how you cut it, Brexit didn't bring the benefits claimed and may herald the break up of the 'united kingdom.' The separation from the E.U. has dragged down the economy in unexpected ways, with further impacts in the decade ahead. Even musicians now struggle to get gigs across the water, faced with a raft of regulations that previously didn't apply. Meanwhile, Britain hanging on the coattails of the U.S. is not a long-term strategic option. The so-called 'special relationship' was always one-sided because the pragmatic U.S. saw a benefit. Access to military bases — George Orwell's Airstrip One — and Britain's support on the diplomatic front. But when disagreements arose between the partners, the U.S. position prevailed. The latest example is the Northern Ireland border, Brexit and the Good Friday Agreement. Plus, changing demographics in the U.S. means the natural support base for the Anglo-Saxon brothers is reducing. People from South America, Asia and other places with less kinship with the old country will soon dominate the U.S. political scene. This gradual change will impact policy. The U.K. had a taste of this under Obama; he was less enthusiastic about the 'special relationship' except when it helped him. So the long goodbye from the U.S. will continue. So, that often cited U.S. trade deal, which the Brexiteers waved around to tempt voters, isn't happening. Likewise, the other major trading block, the E.U., has unresolved issues with Britain. Looking further afield, the rising powers China and India view the U.K. through the lens of the colonial era. In India, that's a mixed bag, a bipolar lingering affection and resentment. For an emerging China, trade is the focus, with a caveat — don't attach strings dictating how we run our internal affairs. Any attempts to tie trade to human rights will be a stumbling block. Unfortunately, Beijing now views the U.K. as part of an alliance that seeks to hold back the Chinese nation. Banning Huawei from 5G bids in the face of U.S. pressure and other barriers illustrates the point. Dispatching HMS Queen Elizabeth to sail up and down the Chinese coast on her first world tour in 2021 played right into China's hand. "Here are the British again using gunboats to threaten us," proved an easy sell internally and to other nations in the global south. It's worth remembering that within living memory in 1926, British gunboats sailed up the Yangtze River to bombard the city of Wanzhou during a trade dispute. Reports tell of thousands of Chinese killed, including many civilians. These things are not forgotten. So, while China may do deals, these will be on its terms. And as China will dominate the world economy, Britain can ill-afford to ignore this market. That's going to be a bitter pill to swallow. Within Britain, poor governance, hubris and a stark lack of honesty have added to the nation's troubles. For example, I've documented the shocking state of policing and the lack of realistic planning for energy needs. These examples are emblematic. Covid and Brexit combined have done significant damage to the British economy. Putin's war in Ukraine isn't helping matters, although attempts to blame all the U.K.'s energy problems on him are dishonest. A decades-long lack of foresight, planning and investment laid the genesis of that bind. Then look at the 'balance of payments' issue; Britain is running an unsustainable record high deficit. That's why the pound is collapsing. Hence, prices will continue to rise and the options to address this are narrowing. Peter Hitchens, in 'The Abolition of Britain', lays out the decades-long cultural processes at work. The erosion of the family unit, the undermining of institutions and the decline in values. He notes that well-meaning but dictatorial social engineers seized the institutions to push ugly and ill-conceived ideas. In fairness, and not to be too bleak, the situation is recoverable if pragmatism prevails. Britain retains many of the best universities, with research capabilities second to none. Moreover, Britain's art and cultural output lead the world, providing soft power leverage beyond measure. Yet, Britain could squander these strengths with adherence to woke dogmas. It is suitable to also speak about the virtues of the British political scene, which has demonstrated resilience despite its evident weaknesses. We've seen a smooth and peaceful power transfer under the constitutional monarchy framework. Few places can achieve this. As is often stated, there is something 'inherently ridiculous about the monarchy.' But, then again, look around the world at the many of the most resilient societies — they have a constitutional monarchy. So it appears there is some utility in having such a head of state. Yet the system's shortcomings in tackling long-term issues are now plain to see. Voters are not prepared to agree on policies that hurt them for the benefit of their grandchildren. Also, never underestimate the role of geography, which confers advantages. For example, the country remains protected by its seas borders. This natural barrier kept armies at bay, helping reinforce stability. And yet Britain's location places it well to trade with the world, while the climate is mild although the weather is variable. And what of the immediate future? In her utterances, Truss, the new Prime Minister, doesn't hold much hope. At times her optimism cannot mask harsh realities. She asserts that a 'Global Britain' must stride the world; then attacks France before expressing general disdain for Europe. Gathering pace, she seeks to vilify China and is reportedly lukewarm on the U.S. She's in danger of isolating Britain from all the significant economies even before the trade talks start. Other clouds darken the horizon to threaten disaster. First, Scotland may go, followed by Northern Ireland, at which point the game is up. What to do? Britain's leaders need the cold eye of pragmatic realism because many of the choices they face are harsh. Simply put, it can't continue to fund limping aircraft carriers while pensioners freeze. It can't claim to uphold human rights elsewhere when people at home need food banks. It can't assert to have a world-class health service when stroke patients can't get an ambulance and wait four hours for medical care. The list goes on. Nor will revisiting past glories, as the nation indulges in hubris, keep the lights on. Sure, celebrate a proud history without letting a misty-eyed view distort the truth. Future historians may be puzzled that Britain didn't recognise that the track of history changed direction in the early twenty-first century. The era of Western domination is coming to an end. Whether a world emerges dominated by China, India, or a multipolar order takes hold, remains debatable. Nevertheless, Britain certainly needs to raise its sights to exploit the natural advantages of history and geography. As King Charles III takes the throne, after the longest apprenticeship in history, I'd argue that the monarchy has a role in redefining Britain. Forget the talk of abolition. The institutions of the state, the majesty of royalty, have all reinforced themselves in recent days; maybe a tad battered, but by no means down. There is no appetite for revolution. If nothing else, Charles III's mother proved an anchor in troubled times, a rallying point — without the blemish of politics. He must show the same qualities because a chill wind is blowing. Winter is coming.
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9/9/2022 0 Comments Knowing When To Go. "The ending a life by whatever means is always an emotive subject" High Court judge Albert Wong Sung-hau is a wise and compassionate man. Sentencing a retired electrician to one-year’s probation for killing his terminal-ill wife was the right thing to do.
The wife had late-stage lung cancer, and the husband agreed to assist in relieving her pain, allowing her to pass peacefully at a time of her choosing. She consented to her husband placing a tray of burning charcoal in her bedroom after she fell asleep. The husband was initially charged with murder, but this was later changed to a lesser indictment of manslaughter. The judge rightly acknowledged that the husband acted unlawfully yet reduced the punishment to the minimum possible without suggesting the court endorsed euthanasia. Such mercy killing or assisted suicide is a controversial topic. Yet, having recently witnessed my father quickly slide from a strong redoubtable individual to a distraught bedridden soul, I can understand the powerful sentiments the matter evokes. As a family, we wished for nothing less than his full recovery, an option that became less likely with time. Dad sought a dignified exit, not an ending marked by tubes, adult diapers and crippling brain fog. But, as a blessing for him, the end came quick enough. He didn’t suffer too long. The ending of a life by whatever means is always an emotive subject, especially for family and friends. And yet, if we accord people true dignity in their final days, surely an option should be there to pick your moment, significantly when the quality of life is severely eroded. In my Dad’s case, we were briefed on the ‘do not resuscitate’ process, a decision that rests with the medical professionals. The appearance of Macmillan Nurses to make sure Dad was comfortable heralded the final stage. They took charge of his care, displaying an empathic but no nonsense approach that gave reassurance. We were glad to be in their hands. Whether Hong Kong can move toward a sensible, balanced approach to this issue remains to be seen. We have the longest life expectancy on the planet, yet quality of life remains an issue for many as chronic ailments blight their final years. What is evident is that the actions of Judge Wong demonstrate it is possible to steer a balanced course. So enacting such a process in law, shouldn’t be beyond the realms of possibility. 6/9/2022 0 Comments A Cosplay Thatcher. "Truss has already demonstrated colossal ambition hung by the slenderest thread of intellect and talent." This is going to be fun to watch. Britain's new Prime Minister, Liz Truss, voted in by mostly geriatric Conservative Party members, assumes office today.
What do we know about Truss? Well, for starters, she was brought up in a left-wing household and, as a student, was a Liberal Party member. During that time, she gave a notable speech calling for the abolition of the monarchy. I doubt she will be repeating such sentiments as she bends the knee at Balmoral. Truss then morphed into a Tory who was against Brexit, giving many speeches warning of the horrors that separation from Europe would bring. Then, overnight, with little or no explanation, she completely reversed direction. Does this mean she is an opportunist politician without principles (surely not), or that she's a woolly-minded thinker? Perhaps both. (Of course, she can change her opinions. At one time I thought Stones Bitter was nectar, now I can’t stand the stuff). Her great hero is Margaret Thatcher, to the extent that Truss loves nothing more than a bit of Maggie cosplay. Yet, unlike Thatcher, the lady is for turning. Given her vagueness and frequent reversals, it's unclear what conservative ideology Truss follows. Although, she's promised sweeping tax cuts, not much else is clear. With tax cuts, how do you pay for stuff? The NHS needs money, as do the police and other critical public services that appear in permanent crisis. Also, let's not forget she sat in Cabinet supporting Boris, covering his lies and deceptions. So, has Britain replaced one Prime Minister who casually and routinely manipulated the truth with a facsimile? As Trade Secretary, Truss negotiated a record number of overseas deals. But, a good number proved less than favourable and may have harmed the U.K. economy. For example, the two deals she agreed with Australia and New Zealand eliminated all trade barriers, damaging the domestic meat industry. Farmers raised the alarm early, but Liz pressed on and ignored them. Her clumsy style was on show when she could not assert that President Macron was trustworthy, claiming, "The jury is out on that one." Even if you think such things, venting in public is unhelpful unless you have a specific beef to address. With E.U./U.K. relations still fraught over unresolved Brexit matters, such utterances are unwise. As Foreign Secretary, she embarrassed herself and the U.K. with a shocking lack of knowledge when seeking to confront the Russian Foreign Minister. She'd not mastered her brief and got her facts wrong, while Sergei Lavrov told her to slow down and listen to the translation. Her attempt at channelling the 'Iron Lady' evaporated into a scolded child. This stumbling is part of a broader issue with her awkward demeanour and public speaking style. Unfair criticism, you may think. But, these things matter on the world stage, given the impact that oratory can have. Think Churchill, Kennedy and Obama. Meanwhile, Liz reminds me of an overzealous school perfect. Truss has already demonstrated colossal ambition hung by the slenderest thread of intellect and talent. Something is going to snap—especially given the tremendous challenges the U.K. is facing. A cost of living crisis is accelerating as the British pound collapses. The appearance of food banks in once prosperous areas tells a story. Industrial strife, the war in the Ukraine and fuel costs are creating a perfect storm. Those promised trade deals that would carry the country forward as it left the E.U. have failed to materialise. The U.S. is unwilling to parley until resolution of the Northern Ireland border issue; that looks unlikely. Again, the U.K. is learning that the special relationship only goes so far. American interests come first, and in that regard, they stand with Ireland and the Good Friday Agreement. China, a massive investor in the U.K. and the third largest trading partner, is now portrayed as a threat, so no deal. The 'Golden Era' rhetoric of Cameron is long gone. Meanwhile, Beijing benefits from the Ukraine war by buying up cheap energy once destined for Europe. The sanctions imposed on Russia are, in effect, punishing Europe. Lastly, Truss takes over with no popular mandate. Poll after poll reveals the public, including Conservative voters, don't favour her. But, at the latest, she can hang on until January 2025, when an election must be called. I doubt she will make it.  "I think we can agree that no police force is perfect, far from it. But at least most turn up when a crime occurs." The arrest of 51-year-old Darren Brady by Hampshire Police proves that U.K. policing has gone off the rails - as if we needed any.
After all, we have the cautioning of a 14-year-old autistic boy— with threats of two years in jail — for asserting a girl is a girl. The said 'girl' identifies as a boy but dresses and looks like a girl. The list of ridiculous policing goes on. So while the U.K. police ignore burglaries, thefts and violence, they are more than keen to marshal gangs of officers to intimidate a retired soldier for his opinions. In an Orwellian twist, the police offered Mr Brady an indoctrination course, which he must fund to avoid arrest. Mr Brady's alleged crime was to re-post an LGBTQ symbol that looks like a swastika. He declined to follow the re-education directive; hence the police came to arrest him. Fortunately, activist Lawrence Fox and former police officer Harry Miller were waiting to film what happened next. Miller experienced similar treatment from Humberside Police in 2019 and won his case in the High Court. Yet, the lesson didn't reach the clowns in Hampshire. Fox captured the sorry episode on video, including the arrest of Harry Miller. He confronted the officers to shame them for lack of proper procedures. As Miller faced arrest, the police asked if he had any weapons. He replied, "I've come armed with my wit and knowledge of the law." And so it proved. In the face of a barrage of criticism, Hampshire Police released both detained men and acted to drop their 'hate crime awareness' course. The civilian Hampshire Police Commissioner came out to blast the Force, noting that real crimes go unattended. I know from my 36 years of policing that officers will act as taught, which raises serious questions about the leadership of British policing, their training and how this distorted officer behaviour. Harry Miller gave an interview (here) that details how the police are now the enforcement arm of the radical trans movement. In this madness that now envelops policing, the ideological zealots are in charge. On the back of this comes official recognition that British policing is in crisis. But, then again, the public has long known this. In a scathing report, Her Majesty's Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire & Rescue Services (HMICFRS) details the inadequacies and outright neglect of duty. For example, only six per cent of robberies and four per cent of thefts led to a charge. Often evidence isn't collected, or it's ignored, while the public is left unattended in their moment of need. I had to laugh when the HMICFRS suggested that officers must attend the scene of burglaries. Doh! That one drives home how far standards of service have slipped. I think we can agree that no police force is perfect, far from it. But at least most turn up when a crime occurs. In Hong Kong, the police strive for a nine-minute response in urban areas and 15 minutes in rural zones. I saw similar response times during attachments in Singapore, New York and Miami. In Hong Kong, a typical burglary call will see an immediate response by uniform branch officers. Next, come the crime investigators, scenes of crime experts, and a visit by the crime prevention unit. And while detections remain a constant challenge, the mere presence of the police acts to reassure the public and deter culprits. But then, again, the Hong Kong Police are well resourced, motivated and focused on getting results. And that is the crux of the matter. The leaders of British policing have for too long become adept at deflecting criticisms while acquiescing to budget cuts. Also, historical police failures brought changes that diverted officers from a crime-fighting role into quasi-agents of social change—all the nonsense around 'hate crimes' and 'offending people' fed that shift. Until 2015, the number of theft cases which led to a suspect in court was around 10 per cent. In 2021-22, the rate had fallen to 4.1 per cent. In 2021, for theft from vehicles, the Metropolitan Police brought charges in only 271 cases out of a total of nearly 55,000, a stunning 0.5 per cent. The Telegraph has revealed that 84 per cent of personal thefts – such as bag snatches – over the past three years had gone undetected. The root causes of this mess go back decades. Between 2010 and 2017, the police workforce shrunk by almost one-fifth, reducing 21,000 police officers and 24,000 civilian staff. No organisation, however efficient or well-managed, can withstand such a massive loss in personnel without an impact on results. Today, 22 per cent of detective posts remain unfilled, while one-fifth of officers have less than five years of service. In a profession where experience counts for everything, this is bound to have severe consequences. What to do about this collapse of policing? How about not arresting and threatening people for having opinions and acting as the enforcement arm of the radical trans-movement (Harry Miller's line, not mine). How about attending the scene of crimes to gather evidence? How about reducing the influence of academics and their crazy theories that have infiltrated the police colleges? How about listening to the community instead of characterising dissenting voices against the imposed culture as 'racist'? And finally, how about recruiting the right people, including those without a degree, because policing is a practical skill. After all, a degree in 'Interpretive Dance and Gender Studies' may not be the best grounding to be a crime fighter. I note all this because, with their willful blindness, U.K. politicians enjoy putting down the Hong Kong Police. While policing here has its critics; nonetheless, we arrive at the scene of an incident and deal with it. Our safe streets tell a story. It is remarkable that the U.K. police, once seen as the gold standard, has fallen so far. What is also remarkable is that the British public is quiet and accepting of the situation. Is the hive mind so distorted by years of relentless erosion of public services that a sullen populace is silent? At least Miller and others are fighting back. As Britain heads into winter with energy shortages, rampant inflation and a zombie government, something must give. How long before people realise that the U.K. isn't sanctioning Russia? It's sanctioning itself. How long before people comprehend more cuts are coming to policing and the NHS while prices soar? All this is beyond belief because British politicians find the time and energy to attack Hong Kong, including policing. There is an extraordinary level of conceit and hypocrisy in their statements. |
AuthorWalter De Havilland was one of the last of the colonial coppers. He served 35 years in the Royal Hong Kong Police and Hong Kong Police Force. He's long retired. Archives
October 2022
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