Hold On!!

"Rules are one thing, but it's often the unwritten norms of decorum that mark excellence"

You have to give it to Donald Trump: the man never stops trying. That audacious press conference, asserting he'd won with counting ongoing, was pure high-stakes political theatre. Did he throw a massive spanner in the works of US democratic institutions?

​Indeed, you could hear the gears grinding, as the machine shook in shock. At the moment it's still running, but with a distinct rattle indicating it needs a repair job. 

One thing is for sure; Trump tried to reset the mechanism with a hammer — some would say he trashed it by taking out key components such as civility and common decency. Rules are one thing, but it's often the unwritten norms of decorum that mark excellence.

Trump, once again, grasped control of the narrative; displaying his prowess to message at the critical moment beneficial to him. In the process, he left Biden and the Democrats looking weak. Then we faced the spectacle of news channels reporting the President's words, adding the caveat "This is untrue." 

The Democrats having anticipated Trump's move, had no response beyond "Let's wait and see."

Folks, the roller coaster ride is far from over. Hold on for the next ascent, hard-lurch or roaring drop. Although, to be honest, I'm getting bored of watching men in front of map boards running the various scenarios. The only benefit to me is improving my knowledge — did you know that the state of Wyoming has fewer people than Kowloon?  

As the results rolled in yesterday, the twitching among Democratic pundits was palpable. The 'horror' of 2016 foreshadowed their every thought. Was he about to do it again? It looked possible.
​
In countless articles written in recent weeks, many predicted Biden to win by a considerable margin. Citing the pollsters - who got it wrong again - the pundits ignored the signs of support for Trump. Blinded by their hubris and prejudice, they couldn't see the man enjoys a solid base.

Can we ever trust the pollsters again? They claimed to have fixed their expensive surveys, tweaking the algorithms to learn the lesson of 2016 and Brexit. It didn't make any difference because the fundamentals of polling are flawed.

I'm drawn to the conclusion you can't divide up people into neat packages, assigning tribal tags, then use that to decide which way they'll vote. People are too complicated, too mercurial for the data sets to capture sentiment with certainty.

Never under-estimate that alone in a polling booth people can act as they please. Speaking to pollsters or filling in an online survey, they may feel more constrained.

Watching from the side-lines, I anticipate the boys in Beijing must be smiling to themselves. The shenanigans of Trump, the failure to get a count done in quick time, the misinformation - the whole chaotic event is no showcase for democracy. They don't need to spin or propagandise this one. Just sit back and watch. 

Come the light of day, Biden looks on track to win unless Trump can get the count halted. As I write, Biden is at 264, Trump 214.  The 270 winning line is in sight.