Hazard All He Hath

"There is no gambling like politics." Benjamin Disraeli

John le Carré would struggle to craft a plot with these ingredients. An ex-US intelligence officer, using money from a Hong Kong-based newspaper baron to spin a sham story against the son of a US presidential candidate.

Meanwhile in the background is the unfolding discord between China, Taiwan and the USA; not to mention a shadowy religious cult and far-right neocons. 

Jimmy Lai, the newspaperman, is denying knowledge of these matters. His former second in command and best buddy, the ex-spook, Mark Simon, has fallen on his sword and resigned. 

For the uninitiated, the details are here.

This intriguing saga is an intoxicating mix; hints of interference with US elections, false identities, fake news and a thread of influence-peddling connecting Hong Kong activists to big hitters in Washington. 

By way of background, Mr Lai is facing an assortment of allegations for his presumed role in last year's civil unrest, while Mr Simon is a fugitive wanted by the Hong Kong Police. He's alleged to have committed various offences but fled Hong Kong earlier this year. 
In 2014, Mr Simon faced exposure for his role in moving funds to support the ‘Occupy Central' movement. A hack of emails revealed him liaising with several right-wing US politicians.

Further, it appears that he used his connections to open doors for Mr Lai. That includes getting a sit down with Vice-President Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. 

Mr Simon's antecedents are worth a look. In short, he's a strident republican and well-connected to neocons in the USA. He's an unashamed big-mouth — his words — with a straightforward, bold style that is at times entertaining and audacious.

Mr Lai is also a pal of Paul Wolfowitz, the former deputy secretary for defence under President Bush II. Wolfowitz is the advocate of a doctrine that emphasises US primacy. This policy entails early intervention and unilateral action that prevents the emergence of any new rivals. 

Thus, you can see why Beijing views Mr Simon and Mr Lai with some suspicion. Moreover, Mr Lai is now in the invidious position of potentially damaging his standing with US Democrats. He'd previously sought their patronage; therefore connection to an effort to black Biden won't play well. 

His endorsement of President Trump compounds that. A stance which has earned him the ire of traditional supporters in the West. The left-leaning Guardian doesn't sound too impressed. They struggle to reconcile Mr Lai's supposed pro-democracy credentials with allegiance to Trump. Indeed. 

So here is the question. By getting into bed with Trump, how does this advance Mr Lai's position when the election could go the other way? As an impartial observer of Sino/US relations, this is a captivating development that exposes Hong Kong's pro-democratic camp to the schism in US politics. 
​
No doubt there is more to come on this story.