Everything Evolves!

"Very soon, China will be the largest economy in the World. Covid-19 may have accelerated the arrival of that day."

The tectonic plates of geopolitics are shifting with Covid-19 accelerating that process. While all governments have made mistakes in handling the pandemic, particularly at the early stages, the virus is exposing the strengths and weaknesses of political systems.

The inherent secrecy of China's political regime meant a slow initial response as the centre digested the information. But, once it decided to act, China was able to bring strict controls, reinforced by robust enforcement. Plus, it has the capacity in political will to move and the resources to respond. 

Evidence is emerging to suggest the virus appeared in Wuhan in November 2019, having circulated for decades without breaking-through. And, yes, by mid-December 2019, local authorities in Wuhan realised they had an outbreak on their hands.

Although this didn't trigger worldwide alarms until January 2020 — no one can claim that by mid-January those alarms weren't ringing loud and clear.

What happened next? Well, most nations not immediately affected, looked-on with bemused interest, circulated memes and then went about their business.

Further, while China locked-down, both Trump and other world leaders sought to play-down the likely impact. They squandered the opportunity to act.

To some extent, Trump was flying blind. He'd earlier dismantled the White House pandemic response team, who scan the World for these impending threats. The efforts to gear up testing faced resistance.

Likewise, appointing Vice President Pence to head the initial response didn't help. Pence doesn't believe in evolution, rejecting the abundant scientific evidence. Enough said.

Across in the UK, the response faltered on a flip-flopping policy that saw 'herd-immunity' — an awful term — dropped within days. The failure to stockpile PPE and learn the lessons of 2016's Exercise Cygnus didn't help matters.

​Exercise Cygnus predicted the scenario we now see unfolding in the UK, with deaths likely to exceed other nations. 

The liberal democracies in the West proved slower to mount a comprehensive response. I sensed from Boris Johnson's early statements a distinct caution. His liberal instincts precluded him adopting an over-bearing tone that translated into 'let's wait and see'.

Then the refusal by large numbers of citizens to remain indoors prompted stricter actions. The police then faced accusations of over-reacting. While public sentiment changed, considerable chatter continues around an overbearing state.

​No wonder the UK can't build a single high-speed rail-link when individual rights override compelling group needs. 

In part to deflect, critics in the West air allegations that China suppressed its number of infections and deaths. The mantra is ‘China lied and had Beijing been honest then we wouldn't be in this position’.

These assertions conveniently miss the fact that even when the warning came, Trump and others didn't respond. 

In truth, no one country has accurate data on Covid-19. I addressed the issue of counting here.

Are China's figures on the light side? Yes. Then again, everybody's data is indicative. Without comprehensive testing, we have a partial view of the Covid-19’s spread.

In time more accurate data on deaths in China and elsewhere will emerge. Until then, we rely on what we have. ​​

What is clear is that shutting down large swathes of the economy is having a profound impact that will test economic and political systems to breaking point. Whether this cure will kill the patient raises the stakes. 

Both the US and UK economies are forecast to shrink by five per cent, with China and India expected to see moderate growth. 

Further, the West is awakening to the realisation how much they've hollowed out their manufacturing industries. In the pursuit of cheap goods to please Western consumers, companies moved their factories to Asia, in particular China. 

Along with that came medical supply manufacture. Covid-19 has exposed the national-security dimension of this off-shore production. In response, Trump has taken to seizing masks from partner nations, something that raised eyebrows and signalled to the World his attitude. 

These industries will, in time, return onshore. The process will not be quick because factories need building, workers identified and trained. That's assuming the money is available to drive this process. 

The slow and partisan response of the West hasn't gone unnoticed in developing countries. Singapore, China and Chile are examples of states that achieved rapid economic growth without democracy. 

The adage that you need democracy to attain prosperity is under threat. As people pivot in a rational way to systems that offer the best outcomes for the majority, in the shortest time, the West has its work cut out. 

For example, its remarkable to me how the unity of the EU evaporated in the last few weeks as national interests resurfaced.

​I shouldn't be surprised. Covid-19 exposed the artifice of the EU; the lack of leadership, coordination or any action that distinguished Brussels as relevant. 

We can expect some realignment from this failure. I'm not suggesting the EU will collapse, but its importance will wane. 

Very soon, China will be the largest economy in the World. Covid-19 may have accelerated the arrival of that day.

​We are also closer to India catching up with the USA. On a related, and significant point, the Gini-coefficient ( a measure of income inequality) is the same for the USA and China. 

But in the US that disparity is increasing, while in China, it's falling. Thus which system is fairer to the majority?

Developing nations in Africa and elsewhere are watching and asking the same question. Is it best to shoe-horn Western liberal democratic systems into a country with an emphasis on individual rights? Or is the Chinese approach of command capitalism the way to go?

In the script fed us by Francis Fukuyama and other 'thinkers', the war is over with liberal democracy prevailing. Yet nobody told the other side, who continue to soldier on. 

​And yet, a victory for China in the economic contest comes bequeathed with complications. The USA remains the most potent military power, and as China imports half its oil through the Strait of Hormuz, that old Middle East nightmare weighs in. 

In short, Covid-19 won't leave any winners, only losers with various degrees of damage. All I can say is that at the moment, with China re-opening for business, Beijing will be first back in the ring.

Newsflash:  The UK is accused of producing substantially misleading Cover-19 statistics by not including the deaths of the elderly in care homes. Jason Oke, a senior statistician at the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences in Oxford, said the current figures were “obviously an underestimate of the severity of the pandemic”. Looks like a cover-up is underway.