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  • Introduction
  • About Walter
    • 1980 Joining Up - Grafton Street >
      • Arrival and First Impressions
      • First Week
      • Training
      • Passing Out
    • Yaumati Cowboy >
      • Getting on the Streets
      • Tempo of the City
      • Jumpers, pill poppers and the indoor BBQ
      • Into a Minefield.
    • Why Tango in Paris, when you can Foxtrot in Kowloon? >
      • Baptism By Fire
      • Kai Tak with Mrs Thatcher.
      • Home; The Boy Returns
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    • PTU Instructor & Getting Hitched
    • Having a go: SDU
    • Starting a Chernobyl family
    • EOD - Don't touch anything
    • Semen Stains and the rules
  • 1987 to 1992 - Should I Stay or Go?
    • Blue Lights, Sirens & Grenades
    • Drugs, Broken Kids & A Plane Crash
    • 600 Happy Meals Please!
    • Hong Kong's Best Insurance
    • Riding the Iron Horse
  • Crime in Hong Kong
    • Falling Crime Rates - Why?
    • Triads
  • History of Hong Kong Policing
    • History 1841 to 1941
    • History 1945 to 1967
    • Anatomy of the 50 cent Riot - 1966
    • The Fall of a Commissioner.
    • History 1967 to 1980
    • Three Wise Men from the West
    • The Blue Berets.
    • The African Korps and other tribes.
    • Getting About - Transport.
    • A Pub in every station
    • Bullshit Bingo & Meetings
    • Godber - The one who nearly got away.
    • Uncle Ho
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    • 2001 - A Space Odyssey.
    • The Godfather.
    • Blade Runner
    • Kes
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    • Contact
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Walter's Blog

"But how can you live and have no story to tell?" Fyodor Dostoevsky
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Reflections on recent events, plus the occasional fact free rant unfiltered by rational argument. 

"If you want to read a blog to get a sense of what is going on in Hong Kong these days or a blog that would tell you what life was like living in colonial Hong Kong, this blog, WALTER'S BLOG, fits the bill."  Hong Kong Blog Review

9/4/2020 6 Comments

Everything Evolves!

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"Very soon, China will be the largest economy in the World. Covid-19 may have accelerated the arrival of that day."
The tectonic plates of geopolitics are shifting with Covid-19 accelerating that process. While all governments have made mistakes in handling the pandemic, particularly at the early stages, the virus is exposing the strengths and weaknesses of political systems.

The inherent secrecy of China's political regime meant a slow initial response as the centre digested the information. But, once it decided to act, China was able to bring strict controls, reinforced by robust enforcement. Plus, it has the capacity in political will to move and the resources to respond. 

Evidence is emerging to suggest the virus appeared in Wuhan in November 2019, having circulated for decades without breaking-through. And, yes, by mid-December 2019, local authorities in Wuhan realised they had an outbreak on their hands.

Although this didn't trigger worldwide alarms until January 2020 — no one can claim that by mid-January those alarms weren't ringing loud and clear.


What happened next? Well, most nations not immediately affected, looked-on with bemused interest, circulated memes and then went about their business.

Further, while China locked-down, both Trump and other world leaders sought to play-down the likely impact. They squandered the opportunity to act.


To some extent, Trump was flying blind. He'd earlier dismantled the White House pandemic response team, who scan the World for these impending threats. The efforts to gear up testing faced resistance.

Likewise, appointing Vice President Pence to head the initial response didn't help. Pence doesn't believe in evolution, rejecting the abundant scientific evidence. Enough said.


Across in the UK, the response faltered on a flip-flopping policy that saw 'herd-immunity' — an awful term — dropped within days. The failure to stockpile PPE and learn the lessons of 2016's Exercise Cygnus didn't help matters.

​Exercise Cygnus predicted the scenario we now see unfolding in the UK, with deaths likely to exceed other nations. 


The liberal democracies in the West proved slower to mount a comprehensive response. I sensed from Boris Johnson's early statements a distinct caution. His liberal instincts precluded him adopting an over-bearing tone that translated into 'let's wait and see'.

Then the refusal by large numbers of citizens to remain indoors prompted stricter actions. The police then faced accusations of over-reacting. While public sentiment changed, considerable chatter continues around an overbearing state.

​No wonder the UK can't build a single high-speed rail-link when individual rights override compelling group needs. 


In part to deflect, critics in the West air allegations that China suppressed its number of infections and deaths. The mantra is ‘China lied and had Beijing been honest then we wouldn't be in this position’.

These assertions conveniently miss the fact that even when the warning came, Trump and others didn't respond. 


In truth, no one country has accurate data on Covid-19. I addressed the issue of counting here.

Are China's figures on the light side? Yes. Then again, everybody's data is indicative. Without comprehensive testing, we have a partial view of the Covid-19’s spread.



In time more accurate data on deaths in China and elsewhere will emerge. Until then, we rely on what we have. ​​

What is clear is that shutting down large swathes of the economy is having a profound impact that will test economic and political systems to breaking point. Whether this cure will kill the patient raises the stakes. 

Both the US and UK economies are forecast to shrink by five per cent, with China and India expected to see moderate growth. 


Further, the West is awakening to the realisation how much they've hollowed out their manufacturing industries. In the pursuit of cheap goods to please Western consumers, companies moved their factories to Asia, in particular China. 

Along with that came medical supply manufacture. Covid-19 has exposed the national-security dimension of this off-shore production. In response, Trump has taken to seizing masks from partner nations, something that raised eyebrows and signalled to the World his attitude. 


These industries will, in time, return onshore. The process will not be quick because factories need building, workers identified and trained. That's assuming the money is available to drive this process. 

The slow and partisan response of the West hasn't gone unnoticed in developing countries. Singapore, China and Chile are examples of states that achieved rapid economic growth without democracy. 

The adage that you need democracy to attain prosperity is under threat. As people pivot in a rational way to systems that offer the best outcomes for the majority, in the shortest time, the West has its work cut out. 


For example, its remarkable to me how the unity of the EU evaporated in the last few weeks as national interests resurfaced.

​I shouldn't be surprised. Covid-19 exposed the artifice of the EU; the lack of leadership, coordination or any action that distinguished Brussels as relevant. 

We can expect some realignment from this failure. I'm not suggesting the EU will collapse, but its importance will wane. 


Very soon, China will be the largest economy in the World. Covid-19 may have accelerated the arrival of that day.

​We are also closer to India catching up with the USA. On a related, and significant point, the Gini-coefficient ( a measure of income inequality) is the same for the USA and China. 

But in the US that disparity is increasing, while in China, it's falling. Thus which system is fairer to the majority?


Developing nations in Africa and elsewhere are watching and asking the same question. Is it best to shoe-horn Western liberal democratic systems into a country with an emphasis on individual rights? Or is the Chinese approach of command capitalism the way to go?

In the script fed us by Francis Fukuyama and other 'thinkers', the war is over with liberal democracy prevailing. Yet nobody told the other side, who continue to soldier on. 

​And yet, a victory for China in the economic contest comes bequeathed with complications. The USA remains the most potent military power, and as China imports half its oil through the Strait of Hormuz, that old Middle East nightmare weighs in. 


In short, Covid-19 won't leave any winners, only losers with various degrees of damage. All I can say is that at the moment, with China re-opening for business, Beijing will be first back in the ring.
Newsflash:  The UK is accused of producing substantially misleading Cover-19 statistics by not including the deaths of the elderly in care homes. Jason Oke, a senior statistician at the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences in Oxford, said the current figures were “obviously an underestimate of the severity of the pandemic”. Looks like a cover-up is underway. 
6 Comments
Gloria Bing
10/4/2020 10:44:48 am

The Guardian...”estimated”, “thought to have”, “may have”...this is the newspaper that claims that NHS staff are 40% ethnic minority when in fact it’s actually 20%. A click-baity, fact-check-free rag.

What might well stop China’s rise to the very top is its rapidly ageing population, massive gender imbalance and the deep distrust of its immediate neighbours. Even if it makes it to the very top, its tenure there may be very short.

Reply
Cleland Rogers link
11/4/2020 03:05:00 am

I checked and couldn’t find a single area of the NHS where that statistic is accurate. It is interesting that only 10% of NHS employees are ‘medical professionals’

Reply
Juan
13/4/2020 06:37:39 am

Indeed... America pre Covid-19 has enjoyed huge immigration for 250 yearsm Despite all its flaws people are voting with their feet.

Reply
Julian Williams
10/4/2020 07:11:07 pm

Good article, Walter.

But nothing wrong with the term 'herd immunity', other than some individuals not liking it (because they find it 'offensive', perhaps?). As scientific terminology, it accurately and succinctly describes the objective in respect of a disease outbreak.

I believe I first came across it from a Scientific American article whilst studying A level biology in 1975, and is commonly used within local government, public health and NHS contingency planning circles. Naturally, these are the very folk who were briefing government ministers who then used the term when briefing the public - some of the more sensitive members of which seem not to like the term.

Julian Williams
(Ex-RHKP (MED), 1985-88)

Reply
C.Law
12/4/2020 12:21:40 pm

"We are also closer to India catching up with the USA"
It seems you have not been following the developments in India in respect of the coronavirus lockdown. Unfortunately it's more likely that India is taking several large steps backwards.

Reply
Juan
12/4/2020 01:02:00 pm

Where did Jason oke say this specifically? I can't find it anywhere.
the current figures were “obviously an underestimate of the severity of the pandemic”. Looks like a cover-up is underway.

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    Walter De Havilland was one of the last of the colonial coppers. He served 35 years in the Royal Hong Kong Police and Hong Kong Police Force. He's long retired. 

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