Covid-19: Ten Weeks In And Light On The Horizon!

"Some commentators, politicians and the media are guilty of whipping up a frenzy that is clouding people’s judgement."

It’s only ten weeks since Covid-19 was identified. Let me repeat that … it’s only ten weeks since Covid-19 was identified! And how things have changed in those ten weeks.

The world is just waking up to the reality that China, Hong Kong and Singapore have faced since January. We’ve gone through our panic buying phase. Folks out there aren’t laughing at us anymore. 

I wish to share the details of various presentations I've heard from leading virologists.

The key points

• The rapid spread of the virus is unprecedented and fueled by global travel.
• The transmission is ‘person-to-person’ through droplets.
• China’s aggressive and comprehensive response has set the standard to follow. 
• Other nations need to emulate China as best they can.
• The current hotspots are:-
  • Europe (especially Italy)
  • Iran
  • South Korea
• In the short-term, we can expect significant daily increases in Europe and the USA
• The response in Europe and the USA is disjointed and slow. 
• The medical systems in the West, especially in the USA, are unfit to deal with this challenge.
• The incubation period is on average 5/6 days, but can be 12 days. Hence the 14 day quarantine. The extra two days is a safety margin.
• The virus impacts people by getting into the lower lungs and causing pneumonia.
• The old and those with existing conditions, especially lung disease, are the most vulnerable.
• Younger people may experience symptoms akin to a mild or severe flu.
• Children and teenagers appear to be less vulnerable. We don’t know why, but the same happened in SARS.
• Asymptomatic carriers are known, but these are very rare, and there is inadequate data to draw conclusions.

The model response needs these elements

• Rapid action is essential. One study suggests that had China acted a week earlier to close down Wuhan the number of cases would be 66% lower.
• Get the sick people into isolation.
• ​Trace the contact clusters.
• Contact people need to go to quarantine until declared clear.
• Social distancing. Suspend large gatherings, minimise travel and ‘work-from-home’
• Wash hands frequently.

• Adopt proper cough etiquette - cover your nose and mouth. If caught short without a tissue, then sneeze into the elbow. 
• Masks must be worn by the sick.
• There is no data to show that masks are effective in preventing healthy people from catching the virus. Because people are unable to exercise mask discipline, this compromises effectiveness. 
• The virus doesn’t like being out in the environment and soon dies. At most, it lingers two-hours in real-world settings.
• Cleaning high-traffic surfaces with any disinfecting agent will kill the virus. ​

Other points to note

• People can test positive after recovering, but they’re not infectious. The testing is picking up the residual traces of the virus.
• Once you’ve had the virus antibodies develop and you are resistant. 
• The seasons may impact the spread. There is some evidence that as warmer weather arrives, the virus may ease off. Indeed, other coronaviruses behave in this way.

The long term view

• Modelling of the spread suggests that in a worst-case scenario, a significant portion of the world’s population could contract the virus. The percentages vary a good deal depending on a host of factors. 
• The virus will eventually die out.
• A vaccine will help curtail its spread and eventual demise
• A vaccine should be ready for use by late 2020 or early 2021. Human trials are starting. 

Final observations

Some commentators, politicians and the media are guilty of whipping up a frenzy that is clouding people’s judgement. Besides, many are playing politics by spreading half-truths and outright lies to smear their opponents.

​We’ve certainly seen that in Hong Kong from anti-government forces who brought medical staff out on strike to pursue their agenda. 

Thus, the levels of angst in society are extreme, and this is distorting the response. For example, too many people are wearing masks when not needed, and this is tying up a valuable resource. Also, panic buying strains our systems of distribution at a time when we need to keep supplies moving. 
​
We are perhaps fortunate to be in Hong Kong, as the worst appears to be behind us. Under the shadow of China, our response was rapid, draconian and effective.

This raises the question of whether the democratic systems in the West, with their consensus approach, can attain the levels of containment needed. That remains to be seen.