Battle Fatigue

"As Thucydides put it, “The strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must”.

As I speculated some weeks ago, the West is showing signs of war fatigue over Ukraine. The economic impact of the struggle, the military stalemate, the passage of time and the assessment that Ukraine can't win are all factors.

The U.S.’s top general, Mark Milley, made it clear this week that a military victory for the Ukrainians is unlikely.

Sure, the Ukrainians mounted a robust and inspiring defence with notable battlefield victories. But these successes do not alone win the war.
​
There are signs that the U.S. and others are nudging the Ukrainians towards considering some form of a ceasefire as an opening gambit for peace talks. And yet, the rhetoric from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is uncompromising. On the surface, he is unwilling to consider any negotiations, which is understandable given his position and the need to keep his forces motivated. 

Also evidence of atrocities and other war crimes naturally make the Ukrainians reluctant to compromise. That is understandable with Zelenskiy adamant those responsible be brought to justice. Although the track record shows only the small people take a hit.

​Pol Pot escaped trial for his crimes and no one has been held accountable for various massacres perpetrated by the British empire in living memory. As Thucydides put it, “The strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must”.’

I'm a great admirer of Zelenskiy. He understands the impact of social media messaging in the modern era, leveraging his rough-cut image to win pundits and admirers. Zelenskiy ticks many boxes for an effective wartime leader, and Putin underestimated him. Still, rhetoric and steadfastness only go so far, especially when your benefactors grow weary. 

The public mood over Ukraine is shifting in the U.S. and Europe. Polls show a gradual but notable lessening of concern. But, likewise, worries are rising that the conflict could lead to a U.S. war with Russia. 

The peripheral impacts are less visible but are a consequence of the war. UNICEF reports that four million children face poverty because of increased food and fuel costs. Kids in Eastern Europe and Central Asia are hit hardest.  

Against that background, Zelenskiy, who relies on the West for arms, may need to concede quietly. After all, the Americans provided most of his weapons to keep him in the game. From the outset, they've proven measured in their provision of kit and weapons systems. They've provided enough to ensure the Ukrainians don't falter but not enough to mount a decisive blow to the Russians. 

It is clear that the Americans don't want to see Putin trapped, partly because that may prompt him to go in harder or fall from power. And if Putin goes, what comes next may prove more belligerent and troublesome. 

The extent of the American's understanding of the Ukrainian battlefield is impressive. For example, this week, when a missile landed in Poland, the Ukrainians immediately blamed the Russians setting off speculation that NATO must act. Then within hours, Biden made it known the 'trajectory of the missile' suggested it came from the Ukrainians.

That Biden made such a definitive statement demonstrates the level of surveillance underway. Plus, the confidence in that surveillance and a keenness to avoid a mistaken escalation. 

Also, despite Western media reports that Putin is low on ammunition and rockets, the evidence suggests otherwise. This week he was able to mount another round of cruise missile attacks aimed at crippling civilian infrastructure. 

What does this prove? Much of the western media are unreliable narrators, with some pumping out propaganda without attempting proper journalistic practices of verification or balance. 

Of course, the Russians do the same. But the western media love to wrap themselves in the mantle of 'objective reporting' when they indulge in the same misleading practices. If you believed the U.K.'s Daily Mail, Putin should be dead now from cancer or other ailments he displayed according to their so-called medical experts. 

All wars end with negotiations. You agree on terms as a victor or a defeated party or to break the conflict. Either way, talks happen. 

China's role is pivotal. Beijing made it clear that while it supports Putin, that support is not unequivocal. On the nuclear question, Beijing won't countenance threats, extracting an assurance from Moscow that nukes are not in play. Behind the scenes, China is probably cooperating with the U.S. to de-escalate the war, creating the conditions for talks. 

On that score, the need for calm, quiet diplomacy is evident. President Xi made the merits of such practices clear when he admonished Canada's Trudeau for leaking their talks to the media. A scalded Trudeau dashed away, looking chastened. 

So, how long will Ukraine hold off on coming to some settlement? We are some months away from that, yet we will get there. However unpalatable, realpolitiks will dictate the outcome.