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Reflections on recent events, plus the occasional fact free rant unfiltered by rational argument. 

"If you want to read a blog to get a sense of what is going on in Hong Kong these days or a blog that would tell you wh at life was like living in colonial Hong Kong, this blog, WALTER'S BLOG, fits the bill."  Hong Kong Blog Review

18/11/2022 1 Comment

Battle Fatigue

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"As Thucydides put it, “The strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must”.
As I speculated some weeks ago, the West is showing signs of war fatigue over Ukraine. The economic impact of the struggle, the military stalemate, the passage of time and the assessment that Ukraine can't win are all factors.

The U.S.’s top general, Mark Milley, made it clear this week that a military victory for the Ukrainians is unlikely.


Sure, the Ukrainians mounted a robust and inspiring defence with notable battlefield victories. But these successes do not alone win the war.
​

There are signs that the U.S. and others are nudging the Ukrainians towards considering some form of a ceasefire as an opening gambit for peace talks. And yet, the rhetoric from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is uncompromising. On the surface, he is unwilling to consider any negotiations, which is understandable given his position and the need to keep his forces motivated. 

Also evidence of atrocities and other war crimes naturally make the Ukrainians reluctant to compromise. That is understandable with Zelenskiy adamant those responsible be brought to justice. Although the track record shows only the small people take a hit.

​Pol Pot escaped trial for his crimes and no one has been held accountable for various massacres perpetrated by the British empire in living memory. As Thucydides put it, “The strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must”.’


I'm a great admirer of Zelenskiy. He understands the impact of social media messaging in the modern era, leveraging his rough-cut image to win pundits and admirers. Zelenskiy ticks many boxes for an effective wartime leader, and Putin underestimated him. Still, rhetoric and steadfastness only go so far, especially when your benefactors grow weary. 

The public mood over Ukraine is shifting in the U.S. and Europe. Polls show a gradual but notable lessening of concern. But, likewise, worries are rising that the conflict could lead to a U.S. war with Russia. 

The peripheral impacts are less visible but are a consequence of the war. UNICEF reports that four million children face poverty because of increased food and fuel costs. Kids in Eastern Europe and Central Asia are hit hardest.  

Against that background, Zelenskiy, who relies on the West for arms, may need to concede quietly. After all, the Americans provided most of his weapons to keep him in the game. From the outset, they've proven measured in their provision of kit and weapons systems. They've provided enough to ensure the Ukrainians don't falter but not enough to mount a decisive blow to the Russians. 

It is clear that the Americans don't want to see Putin trapped, partly because that may prompt him to go in harder or fall from power. And if Putin goes, what comes next may prove more belligerent and troublesome. 

The extent of the American's understanding of the Ukrainian battlefield is impressive. For example, this week, when a missile landed in Poland, the Ukrainians immediately blamed the Russians setting off speculation that NATO must act. Then within hours, Biden made it known the 'trajectory of the missile' suggested it came from the Ukrainians.

That Biden made such a definitive statement demonstrates the level of surveillance underway. Plus, the confidence in that surveillance and a keenness to avoid a mistaken escalation. 

Also, despite Western media reports that Putin is low on ammunition and rockets, the evidence suggests otherwise. This week he was able to mount another round of cruise missile attacks aimed at crippling civilian infrastructure. 

What does this prove? Much of the western media are unreliable narrators, with some pumping out propaganda without attempting proper journalistic practices of verification or balance. 

Of course, the Russians do the same. But the western media love to wrap themselves in the mantle of 'objective reporting' when they indulge in the same misleading practices. If you believed the U.K.'s Daily Mail, Putin should be dead now from cancer or other ailments he displayed according to their so-called medical experts. 

All wars end with negotiations. You agree on terms as a victor or a defeated party or to break the conflict. Either way, talks happen. 

China's role is pivotal. Beijing made it clear that while it supports Putin, that support is not unequivocal. On the nuclear question, Beijing won't countenance threats, extracting an assurance from Moscow that nukes are not in play. Behind the scenes, China is probably cooperating with the U.S. to de-escalate the war, creating the conditions for talks. 

On that score, the need for calm, quiet diplomacy is evident. President Xi made the merits of such practices clear when he admonished Canada's Trudeau for leaking their talks to the media. A scalded Trudeau dashed away, looking chastened. 

So, how long will Ukraine hold off on coming to some settlement? We are some months away from that, yet we will get there. However unpalatable, realpolitiks will dictate the outcome.  
1 Comment
Gloria Bing
30/11/2022 11:49:07 am

I have said before that the Ukraine War marks a return to balance of power geopolitics and the only way out is to negotiate a deal, which will mean concessions by Ukraine and a loss of face and status for Russia. Can’t remember if it was on Walter’s blog though…looks like I will have to remain in Kissinger’s shadow forever!

My only beef with Walter’s article is its reliance on some seriously dodgy historical sources. Generally, it is never a good idea to rely on the internet for facts and it is almost suicidal to rely on a website produced by lefty activist lawyers, especially when their sources seem to be exclusively The Grauniad. I have to admit I don’t know much about the Mau Mau, other than people seem to have forgotten that they were seriously nasty bastards who killed more Africans than colonials. I am also a bit perplexed about why the British government would “smuggle” its own property out of Kenya or give the rather lackadaisical instruction to “burn” or “smuggle” files out of the country. Why not burn the lot? Or smuggle the lot? And having worked in 2 civil services in my time I suspect that the reason 600,000 documents or 20,000 files remained “undisclosed” is because nobody could be arsed to open them up and index them. I am sure many of those files pertained (as they say in bureaurocratspeak) to dog barking cases and potholes in the roads. How many of them were pertinent? No answer, came the reply. Then there is the deliberately tendentious use of figures, which always makes me suspicious: “Historians estimate that 150,000 to 1.5 million Kikuyu people were detained.” Actually, historians disagree quite strongly on the number (which by itself should make a body wonder if they are not being manipulated in some way) and in any case what does “detained” mean? Does it mean tortured? Does it mean abused? Or does it also include those kept in a cell overnight and released after sobering up? Could it, perchance, even mean those detained because they did something quite bad, like hack innocent people to death?

On the other hand, I have spent quite a bit of time looking into the claims of various parties – usually drones of the BJP/RSS and their Western fellow travelers (i.e. The Grauniad again) – regarding India. Most of the myths originate from a character called Shashi Tharoor, an urbane Indian ex-diplomat who pitched his ideas in a book called ‘Inglorious Empire’ and later delivered his views in very pukka English to the Oxford Union. The myth holds that Britain de-industrialised India to benefit its own industry. This is usually backed up with lurid tales of the East India Company breaking the thumbs of Indian weavers. Only problem is neither assertion is true. The thumbs thing was made up by a clerk of the EIC to discredit one of its governors and has been thoroughly debunked, not least by Indian historians. More importantly though, Indian finished cotton goods production increased 10 fold under British rule. Steel production went from a whopping 0 (yes that’s zero) to 433 kilotons in 1930. Pig iron production increased 15 fold and 50% went to export. Some de-industrialisation! Then there’s the “the British flooded the local market with cheap fabric from northern England” assertion which despite the fact that it doesn’t seem to have deindustrialised or destroyed the cotton business, as attested by the actual facts and figures, the activist-lawyers seem have forgotten would actually benefit poor Indians.

Then there’s the famines thing. It is actually a refreshing change that they cite the Orissa Famine; usually it is the Bengal Famine of 1943 that is produced as irrefutable evidence of “genocide” by the British...although all the key facts are usually left out. Anyway, the same response largely holds true for Orissa as for Bengal, and who better to comment than an Indian economist –

"Were the Indian famines natural (geographical) or manmade (political) in origin? I review the theories of Indian famines and suggest that a mainly geographical account diminishes the role of the state in the occurrence and retreat of famines, whereas a mainly political account overstates that role. I stress a third factor, knowledge, and suggest that limited information and knowledge constrained state capacity to act during the nineteenth century famines. As statistical information and scientific knowledge improved, and prediction of and response to famines improved, famines became rarer."
- Tirthankar Roy, Abstract to Were Indian Famines Natural or Manmade?, LSE Paper No. 243 - June 2016

Roy also makes the point that famines were common throughout South Asia during the same period and – surprise, surprise – the British often were not the rulers of those countries afflicted by them. The British did not colonise China

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    Walter De Havilland was one of the last of the colonial coppers. He served 35 years in the Royal Hong Kong Police and Hong Kong Police Force. He's long retired. 

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