Walter's Blog |
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Reflections on recent events, plus the occasional fact free rant unfiltered by rational argument.
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27/12/2024 2 Comments Here Comes 2025 - Everything Evolves "The boundless mass of humanity flows on a stream without banks; upstream, the past is lost in time; while downstream, a future clouded by starless possibilities awaits. Watching all this are men of zest, overawed - the romantic era of empires is over. They declare the Caesars will return, driven by will to power. I stole and twisted Oscar Spengler's words above. He wrote pessimistically of the West as World War 1 concluded. My version, written in May 2023, still rings true.
At this time of year, it's natural to look ahead and assess what's on the horizon. On the geopolitical front, we're witnessing significant evolutions. Imagine a world without empires. This thought experiment quickly becomes complex, requiring us to envision a reality vastly different from what we're accustomed to. As we approach 2025 and a second Trump presidency, we witness the convergence of several transformative shifts. Notably, the era of the U.S.'s post-World War II global policing is drawing to a close, a paradigm shift underscored by the failed interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan. Arguably, the Vietnam War foreshadowed the limitations of U.S. power projection. All the think tanks and analyses can ruminate the details; the facts are inescapable. Hence, the de facto empire or hegemony run from Washington is much more brittle and retreating. For example, we've just seen regime change in Syria that wasn't driven by the Americans. Turkey played the lead role in the removal of Assad. Then overnight, Washington delisted the new rulers from its list of terrorists. They turned on a dime from trying to kill Al-Joulani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, to engagement. The unfolding conflict in Ukraine is a stark reminder of the West's strategic calculations. While not fully committed, the U.S.-led West provides enough resources to keep the Ukrainians in the fight, which serves its interests. This geopolitical chess game, while cynical, is a testament to the complex power dynamics at play. Likewise, Putin can't be pushed to defeat because he may come out swinging with nukes when cornered. Nobody wants that. So, the war rumbles on, and young men die without an absolute winner. Meanwhile, the Europeans pay for higher fuel costs, stuttering economies and instability on their borders. Polls point to waning European public support for Ukraine as the inevitable fatigue takes hold. It's essential to cut through the propaganda around why Russia moved on Ukraine. As the reunification of Germany was under negotiation in 1989, the USSR participated in the talk. U.S. Secretary of State James Baker and European leaders assured the then-Sovert leadership that NATO would not expand eastward. That undertaking led to the reunification of Germany, which tied up the loose ends of World War II. These assurances are recorded on tapes and in documents. Putin, the successor to the Sovert leadership, believed these guarantees would be sustained. In this regard, Russia was a continuation of the USSR, accepting all international treaties and legal obligations, including nuclear arms agreements. Indeed, when first appointed, Putin sought a rapprochement with NATO and even discussed possible membership. The Americans scorned this idea. Their aim of 'full-spectrum dominance' in the geopolitical sphere, including military, financial, industry, and culture, made no room for Russia. On the contrary, the Neocon policy sought to surround Russia. Hence, within years, NATO expanded eastward, encroaching on Russia's border. This move destroyed Russia's sense of security and trust that the West would honour its word. Thus, we arrive at today's 'forever' war. Now, Trump is making it clear that U.S. continued support for Ukraine is not a given, and he expects the Europeans to stop freeloading off American military power. How he manifests this stance remains to be seen. If Ukraine accepts neutrality, there is a solution to all this. If that doesn't happen, as Godfrey Bloom discusses here, are you prepared to risk World War 3? The time has come for Europeans to define what they stand for and what they're willing to defend. This will necessitate developing a comprehensive strategy and a plan for funding it without heavy reliance on the U.S. Simultaneously, the U.S. is losing influence in the global south. Its support of Israel is among several positions that have damaged its standing. Again, Trump's election for a second term may set a path to a less prominent U.S. global footprint. Elsewhere, signs emerge that the Western-style democratic model is struggling to meet public expectations. There's a palpable sense of change in the air. In Germany, far-right politicians are gaining ground in the formerly communist part of the country. France's government is in turmoil as another unknown prime minister takes office. Across Europe, legal and illegal migration are causing rifts in the open-border model as countries assert their sovereignty. In Britain, the signs of decay and malaise are everywhere. Decades of under-investment, poor governance and apathy are coming to a head. The prisons are in a near state of collapse, forcing the new Prime Minister Kier Starmer to release thousands of thugs, including many who are a threat to women and children. Concurrently, the police are abandoning a reported 45 per cent of reported crimes, including assault cases, as the London Metropolitan Police routinely achieves zero detections in some neighbourhoods. Yet, the police can find the time and manpower to investigate instances of hurt feelings as they enforce speech codes. That's easier than going after real villains. The NHS is the most remarkable example of a malfunctioning state. The U.K. spends more on health than most European countries yet receives deeply sub-par returns. The proportion of day-to-day government spending dedicated to the NHS has risen to 44 per cent and will soon exceed 50 per cent. The NHS is the single largest employer in the U.K. The quip that Britain is a health bureaucracy with a government attached is becoming true. As a result, Prime Minister Starmer is already finding life much more challenging than he ever imagined. Part of the problem is the ongoing British temptation to pretend it still has an empire in every region or time zone. But to do that, you need clout, and the evidence is clear: Britain no longer has a military capable of sustaining even a couple of months of all-out fighting. All the services are understrength and poorly resourced. A lack of foresight allied to hubris has saddled the Royal Navy with two aircraft carriers it can't deploy. Both are sitting targets in an era of drones and hypersonic missiles. The army is its smallest since the Napoleonic Wars, and currently, 10% of all military personnel are unfit to be deployed. The once-legendary RAF's training programmes are in perpetual crisis. Pilots take too long to complete courses, and a lack of engineers keeps aircraft grounded. The RAF has had to turn to the U.S. for even basic flight training after ill-conceived and unlawful diversity drives prioritised minorities over competent white men. Shockingly, the country has no effective missile defence system. Sure, the special forces remain exceptional. But you don't win wars or defend a country by special forces alone. Starmer and his new Labour government must make some harsh decisions in 2025 to begin tackling this mess. And with the economy showing signs of weakening (again), those decisions become even more formidable. This brings us back to Trump. While Starmer may wish to lean towards Europe, he must enter the White House and genuflect. After all, the British foreign secretary, David Lammy, has previously remarked that Trump is "deluded, dishonest, xenophobic, narcissistic," and a "neo-Nazi-sympathising sociopath." Be that as it is, Trump does not present an ideological threat to Britain or Europe. Instead, the danger comes from his demand for 'fair trade' and a pragmatic approach to defence issues. He recognises that the Russians are not knocking at the U.S. door and do not present a significant threat to American interests beyond cybercrime and espionage. Likewise, China does not pose a military threat to the United States. Instead, the risk comes from China's increasing economic clout and its grip on certain rare earth materials crucial to advancing the new technological age. Plus, the Chinese investment in research, people's education, and engagement with the global south is outstripping the influence the Americans can assert. If population is power, do the maths: China has 1.4 billion versus 329 million Americans. China's economy has grown over the past forty years at a rate four times that of the U.S. By purchasing power parity, the yardstick the IMF uses to compare national economies, China has surpassed America. In the process, China has become the World's workshop, the number one trading partner of most nations, and the primary engine of economic growth. Trump appears to have heeded that status, unprecedentedly inviting President Xi Jinping to the inauguration in Washington on January 20, 2025. Whether Xi accepts the invitation will be telling. Yet Washington still does not understand that the Chinese people will decide China's future. Moreover, many in the West are kidding themselves if they believe the Chinese people view Xi and the CCP through the same lens as them. On the contrary, their popularity remains robust, at numbers Western politicians can only dream about. Still, China has issues to address, including a falling population and an economy that requires constant attention to stay on track. And despite attempts by U.S. neocons to inflame the Taiwan situation, I see no immediate conflict. Beijing knows military actions often have unforeseen consequences, and China will not be provoked. It has many other levers to influence the situation, and a military option is the least attractive. In a May 2023 article, New World Order, I set out a view that remains valid and relevant. So, at the risk of sounding repetitive, the world order is changing, and I suspect that in 2025, the changes will accelerate. Yet, with many factors at play, I recoil at being more definitive than that. Happy New Year.
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24/12/2024 0 Comments Have We All Been Played? "The machine spewed forth outright distortions, amplifying half-truths and lies." "Let's Go to Golgotha!" is a 1975 science fiction story by Garry Kilworth. In it, a tour company offers time travel to famous historical events, with the crucifixion of Christ proving to be the most popular. As briefed before their departure, the tourists join the crowd in disguise.
When asked who to spare, Jesus or Barabbas, the time-travelling tourists call out "Barabbas," as instructed. Then, the story's protagonist realises that the entire crowd is from the future, and no other citizens are present. As recorded by history, they've condemned Jesus to the cross, not the Jews. I read the story as a teenager, and it came back to me when I was sent David Samuels's article, Rapid-Onset Political Enlightenment. Samuels suggests that public opinion is manufactured. He asks, "Have we all been played?" Is public opinion created by narrative-shaping wonks with fancy degrees merging social media with psychological operations (psyop) to drive an agenda? Samuels makes a convincing case. To explain his theory, he ties together several events and trends that may explain what has happened to politics in the U.S. and what's unfolding in the U.K. and elsewhere (my view—not his). Some of this is new, and other stuff is well-known. In summary, in the early 2000s, Barack Obama recognised that traditional mainstream media was losing its grip on conveying news, shaping opinions, and reaching people. Thus, he engaged a team led by David Axelrod, a political consultant and analyst, who sought to leverage Web 2.0 (what we now call social media) to pursue the presidency. It is important to stress that the U.S. election system gives disproportionate power to marginal swing states, and a tiny sliver of votes decides the outcome. For example, Kennedy beat Nixon by only 0.17% in 1960. If 30,000 people had switched votes, Nixon would have won. In a quarter of all U.S. presidential elections, the winner and loser were separated by 3% of the popular vote. George W. Bush won in 2000 by 537 votes from the Florida recount. Therefore, targeted messaging has a profound impact. In effect, Axelrod and his team created a vast, all-encompassing de-facto psyops machine that harnessed emerging social media platforms not to drive it along according to an agenda. They employed 'fiction' writers to create narratives and harnessed fact-free virtue campaigns to attack the opposition, hence all the gender and woke propaganda based around postmodernism. It worked well at first, anchoring key messages through storytelling and repetition. Then, gradually, the machine spewed forth outright distortions, amplifying half-truths and lies. As a result, the American public increasingly suffers cognitive dissonance from holding the prescribed opinions while seeing things that contradict them. They witness the rise in crime and the relentless crossings at the Mexican border. That's the glitch that all the clever folks didn't see; the public isn't as gullible as they think. Thus, the psyop machine faltered when Hillary Clinton ran for president. Trump short-circuited the system with his first presidential run by directly appealing to the people's fears. Yet, the machine kept running and placed Biden in the White House. But here's where it gets interesting. With Facebook and Twitter now acting as de facto government agencies by censoring Trump and others, the full power of the machines gets exposed when the truth of the Hunter Biden laptop story, a controversial incident involving Joe Biden's son, breaks. Algorithms downplay the reality of the laptop story while propagating a lie that 'Russia did it'. Then, revelation emerged that the FBI had agents embedded in Twitter HQ helping censor stuff. This laptop saga and false narratives about Trump being in Putin's pocket pulled back the curtain on the deceit. Then, along comes Elon Musk. He buys Twitter and opens the gates to the public square. He purchased the platform for much more than it was worth, forcing a deal and breaking the Democratic Party machine monopoly on messaging. No wonder those living in the shadow of the machine are traumatised by Trump's reelection. Everyone told them he was done, the orange Hitler was history (their words), and that lovely lady would win. She didn't. They expose themselves to ridicule with opinion pieces like this about how to share Christmas with Trump voters. In the U.K., Prime Minister Starmer faces a similar fate, with Nigel Farage's Reform Party snapping at Labour's heels. With his popularity rating plummeting close to those of the hapless Liz Truss, Starmer is in a bind. With Musk backing Farage, the game is wide open. Meanwhile, centre-left governments across Europe have fallen as the public punishes incumbents for their failures and lies. This wave of change is shaking the established political parties. Of course, Trump, Musk and others will now tweak the psyop machine to serve their purposes. I suppose traditional media outlets could have helped prevent all this by exposing what Obama and the Democrats were doing; instead, they went along for the ride with an uncritical eye. Now, the big hitters who proclaimed disdain for Trump are busy deleting their social media posts as they make their way to Mar-a-Lago to pay homage. I find Samuels makes a convincing case. However, academic research is necessary to support his conclusions and lend weight to his ideas. In the meantime, it is best to question everything and verify, verify, and verify.  "None of this moral indolence justifies Thompson’s slaying and the pain it caused his wife and two sons." UnitedHealthcare reportedly turns down one-third of medical reimbursement claims, twice the industry average. This affects the individual patients and contributes to the problems in the notoriously expensive U.S. healthcare system.
A staggering 60% of Americans report issues, including coverage denial, reimbursement refusal, and partial repayments, highlighting the widespread impact of UnitedHealthcare's practices. UnitedHealthcare is the largest healthcare insurance provider, with over 50 million care plan customers. In 2024, CEO Brian Thompson earned US$10.2 million, and his shares amounted to US$20 million. The company made a profit of US$16 billion in 2023. Healthcare insurance is about profiting for companies and shareholders. The business model is simple: People get ill and need expensive treatment. Hence, insurers get them or their employers to pay for coverage and then seek to minimise payouts to maximise profit. And reports point to UnitedHealthcare taking this model to the extreme with an AI system with a 90% error rate. UnitedHealthcare dominates nearly all aspects of health care, a position that the Justice Department accused of anti-competitive practices. Thus, when CEO Thompson is gunned down on a New York street, social media reacted with little or no sympathy, indeed the opposite. UnitedHealthcare's bereavement message online was mocked with 77,000 laughing emojis. Meanwhile, company stocks lost 14% of their value since Thompson was shot. The killing of Thompson brought forth accusations about the sharp practices of his company and others, including denying legitimate claims, using flawed AI systems, and engaging in anti-competitive practices. It is fair to say that a good portion of Internet commentary lauded his alleged killer as a latter-day 'Robin Hood'. But it's gone even further than that. The alleged killer is attracting lustful comments about his physique, protests outside the jail he is held in and demands he be freed. A 26-year-old Ivy League graduate, Luigi Mangione, has been named the suspect; he's a dead ringer for Timothée Chalamet — so he's probably lined up for the movie. Had the killer been a fat, bald man with a social media profile of extremist views, I doubt the same level of adoration would be forthcoming. As this story unfolds, the role of the media in shaping public perception becomes increasingly evident. The framing of the narrative—whether it emphasises the tragedy of Thompson's death or the alleged killer's motivations—has the power to significantly influence how the story is received, highlighting the power of storytelling in shaping public opinion. But these days, with everyone a de facto commentator, the masses shape the narrative on the Internet, leaving traditional media in its wake. Moreover, the story gains substantial traction when it aligns with broader social issues around corporate greed. After the financial crash of 2008, how many bankers were held accountable? None. That fact still sticks in the throats of many. People are fed up, disenfranchised, and sick of blatant profiteering. So, if a CEO goes down, they applaud his killer. After all, they argue, how many people died because of greedy business leaders? Yet, none of this moral indolence justifies Thompson’s slaying and the pain it caused his wife and two sons. In the last few days, the MSM has been used to reshape the narrative, emphasising Thompson’s humble origins and journeyman status. In this version, he’s portrayed as a family man who is part of the solution to the failing U.S. healthcare system. The killing of Thompson illustrates the complex relationship between crime, culture, and heroism. While the accused's actions may be legally indefensible, the narrative constructed around them can become a symbol of resistance for some. Such stories remind us that the lines between villain and hero can often blur, revealing deeper truths about our collective values and struggles. I fear that this alleged crime won't change the healthcare machine—it's too big, too entrenched. But it shines a dark spotlight that shocks the corporate ivory towers. And while Thompson's death doesn't fix anything, it reflects a frustration many deeply feel: anger at a system that tears people down. Ultimately, whether one views the alleged killer as a folk hero depends mainly on personal perspectives and societal context, making this case a poignant reflection of contemporary issues that resonate far beyond the courtroom and pure legal reasoning. 11/12/2024 1 Comment Syria Burns "This imbroglio has left Western nations in a tizzy." The Syrian conflict is a puzzle so intricate that even those who claim to understand it don't. It's a constantly evolving situation filled with unknowns and complexities. My interest in the region sparked about 15 years ago during a counterterrorism course, which only scratched the surface.
The overthrow of the Assad regime is not just a local issue but a global one with far-reaching implications. It involves many countries and ethnic groups, making it complex and urgent. Turkey, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, the U.S., Russia, Iran, and various Arab nations are all players in this game. When you add the diverse ethnic groups, including Kurds, Assyrians, Armenians, Turks, and Circassians, the picture becomes even more convoluted. A few context-setting details: President Bashar al-Assad ruled the country since 2000 with his British-born wife. He got the job because his elder brother died in a car crash in 1994. President Hafez al-Assad groomed the elder son for the presidency. As a spare, Bashar was called back from the U.K. and took over in 2000 when his father died. Initially, the West lauded Bashar as a more liberal leader who would help bring peace to the region. That didn't work out. The Assad regime, operating more like a gangster enterprise, has turned Syria into a narco-state, with half of the GDP coming from the production of illegal drugs. This exploitation of the country's resources for personal gain is a stark illustration of the regime's avarice. Their brutality is legendary, including using chemical weapons on the populace. In 2011, the Syrian civil war ignited, involving a host of groups, leading to the formation of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), which is not a single entity but factions brought together to remove Assad. Without Assad as a common enemy, these cliques would have been fighting each other. For decades, the civil war was primarily frozen, with the Syrian government propped up by Russia and Iran. Russia has bases in Syria, which is vital to supplying its troops in Africa. For many years, the West cooperated (covertly) with the Assad regime in its fight against Al Qaeda. This cooperation was part of a complex geopolitical strategy, as Syria was also on the list of states sponsoring terrorism. This dual relationship with Syria further muddies the waters. In the past two weeks, a former Al Qaeda affiliate, Ahmed Hussein al-Shar, who uses the name Al-Joulani, has led the revolt that finally toppled Assad. As far as I can tell, this sudden triumphant surge surprised everyone. Al-Joulani is the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a U.S.-designated terrorist group. You wouldn't want this lot running your neighbourhood policing. Al-Joulani is now rebranding himself as a moderate, inclusive leader who can work with the West. Thus, he is busy dismissing his Al-Qaeda ties and Daesh collaboration. He's intimating that he has put his ISIS past behind him as a youthful exuberance. The sort of youthful exuberance that called for the death of all Americans, a jihad against Israelis and other non-believers. And yes, there is the small matter of the U.S. bounty of $10 million on Al-Joulani’s head. That appears to be forgotten now, which calls into question a host of issues, including how you work with folks you called terrorists and sought to kill. Then, overnight, you embrace them for a short-term gain. This imbroglio has left Western nations in a tizzy. Should they embrace this man? Can he hold the Syrian nation together? As usual, the U.S. will decide, and the Europeans will follow. Britain’s unceasing obsession with the ‘special relationship’ means it will do as the U.S. says. However, those shifting sands expose British servitude with Trump heading to the White House. Meanwhile, CNN and other Western media outlets are already busy whitewashing Al-Joulani's ISIS and Al-Qaeda links. Given the complexity and gravity of the situation, the West should exercise caution. At the same time, Washington and others are celebrating the loss of Russian and Iranian influence. That cheer could be short-lived — what happens next in Syria may be worse. With Assad out of the way, the U.S., Israel and Turkey have decided to settle some unfinished business by bombing targets across the country. This effort aims at degrading terrorist groups, destroying weapons and sending a signal that Syria won't be a base for attacks. Unfortunately, for people on the ground, it looks like hostile nations are taking advantage with no respite from their troubles. For example, the Israelis have sunk the entire Syrian navy in a matter of days and occupied territory. Meanwhile, some rebel groups are backed by Turkey, while others receive support from the U.S. and Gulf states. Control over territory in Syria is highly fluid, with different groups frequently gaining and losing ground. Whether central control can imposed is debatable. The decades of conflict have resulted in a severe humanitarian crisis, with nine million Syrians displaced and making their way to Europe, prompting calls to close borders. This people movement helped destabilise European politics, with the ripple impacts still playing out. For sure, new threats will continue to emerge, such as the resurgence of extremist groups and the ongoing tensions between Kurdish forces and Turkish-backed factions. So, while the West has a form of optimism bias when evil regimes fall, it's crucial to remember the lessons of recent history. Iraq or Afghanistan, anyone?  "The adoption of ‘brain rot’ as the word of the year suggests that social media and the Internet have a terrible effect on humans. However, the Internet's impact includes liberation from traditional information sources and empowerment." According to the Oxford Dictionary, 'brain rot' is the official word of 2024. It is the supposed deterioration of a person's mental or intellectual state, primarily caused by the overconsumption of trivial or unchallenging material online.
'Brain rot' is caused by excessive use of technologies, such as zombie scrolling—scrolling with no destination while frequently staring at the screen. Anyone who has walked down a Hong Kong Street will recognise this behaviour. There is now much pearl-clutching over the belief that excessive use of social media and our mobile phones leads to a deterioration in cognitive functions and declining self-esteem. The risk is falling into the comparison trap by seeing the curated wonderful life of others as reinforcing a negative self-image, resulting in high levels of stress, anxiety and depression. The state of 'brain rot' has yet to be clinically recognised. Still, in broad terms, it involves mental fog, reduced attention span, difficulty organising thoughts, trouble recalling important information and challenges in making decisions. It sounds like a typical teenager to me. The adoption of ‘brain rot’ as the word of the year suggests that social media and the Internet have a terrible effect on humans. However, the Internet's impact includes liberation from traditional information sources and empowerment. We should pay attention to this potential for positive change because 2024 is the year the podcast came into its own and had a profound impact. Strangely, long-form discussion podcasts have the most traction, confounding the suggestion that our attention span is degrading. Unlike traditional radio segments or shorter podcast episodes, long-form podcasts often last over an hour. They allow for in-depth discussions and storytelling, and there is evidence that this format is relished and incredibly influential. Donald Trump's appearance on the Joe Rogan podcast helped swing many votes for him. The Joe Rogan Experience is the world’s top podcast, with three billion listeners. Kamala Harris declined to appear. Likewise, The Rest is Politics podcast in the UK has revived the standing of Alistair Campbell (he of the dodgy dossier) and the failed PM candidate Rory Stewart. These two occasionally get it wrong, yet they provide revealing insights. For instance, in a recent discussion, they said that human rights are only raised by the U.K. government with other countries to appease the media and never pursued with real vigour. Another stand-out podcast is Triggernometry, hosted by two former comedians, which provides impressive insights into complex issues. Engaging with guests from across the political and social spectrum, they've confounded norms and help break down barriers. There are several other instances where podcasts fulfil the role of explaining what is going on without the bias filters that operate upon the old media of newspapers and TV outlets. In their 1988 book 'Manufacturing Consent', Noam Chomsky and Edward Herman tell us that 'news' goes through at least five filters before it reaches us, and we must treat it with wariness. Podcasts operating outside mainstream media are less constrained by these filters. Indeed, many personalities who made a name on TV or in traditional media are now switching to the podcast format. This format allows for flexibility in content that was not possible when they worked for the old-style mainstream media. This opportunity undermines spin-merchants' control and is proving popular with customers. Here are the trending podcasts in China. Note that English-language podcasts dominate. Podcast penetration in China is growing and is expected to be the dominant medium by 2027. But what accounts for this growing influence? Here are several key factors driving the impact of long-form podcasts. Deep Engagement with Content Long-form podcasts allow listeners to engage deeply with topics that interest them. The format lets hosts and guests explore subjects thoroughly, fostering a richer understanding. Listeners can immerse themselves in complex narratives, nuanced arguments, and diverse perspectives that shorter formats cannot accommodate. Authenticity and Storytelling In an era where authenticity is paramount, long-form podcasts excel at building genuine connections between hosts and their audiences. The conversational nature of extended discussions allows for personal stories and experiences to shine through. This storytelling aspect resonates with listeners, creating a sense of intimacy and relatability that is missing in shorter formats. Convenience and Accessibility Podcasts are inherently convenient; they can be consumed while commuting, exercising, or doing household chores. Long-form podcasts cater to this lifestyle by offering substantial content that can be savoured over multiple sessions. Listeners can dive into a series or a specific episode without feeling rushed, making them more likely to return for future instalments. Diverse Topics and Niches Long-form podcasts cover a wide range of topics, from politics, true crime, and history to self-improvement and science. This diversity allows niche audiences to find content that resonates with their interests. Monetisation For creators, long-form podcasts offer significant monetisation opportunities. Advertisers are often willing to pay more for longer episodes that allow for integrated ad placements, as they can convey messages more effectively. This financial incentive encourages creators to produce high-quality content, enhancing the listening experience. Joe Rogan is estimated to earn about $800,000 per podcast episode and records at least thrice weekly, earning $9.6 million monthly. Community Building Long-form podcasts foster communities around shared interests. Many podcasts create forums, social media groups, or live events, enabling listeners to connect with each other and the hosts. This sense of community enriches the podcasting experience, making listeners feel part of something larger and more connected. The impact of long-form podcasts is undeniable, driven by their ability to engage, inform, and entertain listeners meaningfully. In the end, the traction that podcasts and Youtubers gained in 2024 represents an actual front of political engagement in an era when traditional media institutions continue struggling with their footing. 6/12/2024 0 Comments Parked Up "As a car owner, I know the cost of my vehicle is significant." A press story caught my eye. According to the report, a parking firm is seeking to remove and recover outstanding parking fees for vehicles left on its premises. The company issued a final notice demanding that the owners of 22 cars pay the fees and other charges.
What struck me is that one of the cars owes HK$1.25 million in parking fees. The offending vehicle is a Volkswagen, which has been parked since 2011 and is now worthless. The owners have abandoned these vehicles — that is clear. Also, I note that several vehicles have been left in the airport park-and-ride facilities. This suggests that the cars were dropped off by their owners as they left Hong Kong; therefore, it’s unlikely that the parking management company will be able to pursue claims to recover their money. Some speculation is that the owners passed away, perhaps leaving the cars behind with relatives unaware of the situation. Moreover, these cars could have been abandoned to avoid the cost of disposing of a vehicle. Either way, it’s a testament to the low value of secondhand cars in Hong Kong. A quick perusal of secondhand car sales sites will reveal that even serviceable high-end vehicles are selling at a considerable reduction on their ticket price as new. Owning a car in Hong Kong is costly due to a lack of parking spaces, high insurance and maintenance costs, and other related expenses. Fuel is among the most expensive anywhere. While, finding a parking space is almost a competitive sport in this city. Of course, our superb public transport system and compact city incentivise citizens to use public transport rather than own a private vehicle. Cultural factors also influence second-hand car values. Except for ‘classic cars,’ the Chinese perceive new cars as better than someone else’s used junk. As a car owner, I know the cost of my vehicle is significant to my pocket and the environment. I increasingly use public transport, taxis, and Uber as I wean myself off the car. One question that comes to mind is why the parking company took so long to act. Also, what does it say about your society that perfectly functional Porches, BMWs and Mercs are abandoned by their owners? One solution to this issue, along with the rampant illegal parking of cars that blight Hong Kong’s streets, could be to adopt Japan’s proof-of-parking rule (shako shomeisho) system. Under this system, car owners must provide the authorities with proof that they have a parking space. Further, overnight on-street parking is banned and enforced. The impact of this scheme is evident in crowded Japanese cities as streets remain free of cars, blocking movement on roads and pavements. I suspect there is no appetite for such a law. Instead, the emergence of autonomous vehicles allied to ride-hailing apps will further drive down the appetite for car ownership. The ultra-rich will continue to own cars, probably with drivers to signal their status, while others will gradually see the economic case of hiring as needed. Thus, on car ownership, technology and economics will drive changes rather than the blunt instruments of the law. Notably, cities with short travel distances, such as Hong Kong and Singapore, provide the best sites for such innovation. One imagines that once autonomous vehicles arrive at scale, that’s the future. 3/12/2024 0 Comments Wayward Son and Fallen Father. "Any remaining credibility in the U.S. justice system, now disappears like cocaine up Hunter's nose." When an open goal presents itself, take the shot. Joe Biden has just given us that opportunity.
For decades, the U.S. has lectured us here in Hong Kong on due process, human rights, and the sacrosanct 'rule of law'. Yet, in the dying moments of his shaky presidency, Biden pardons his son's crimes, exposing that the 'rule of law' is a fig leaf. This is the latest twist in the Hunter Biden sorry saga. Either Biden senior is the best dad in the world or a profoundly corrupt man who is prepared to throw the U.S. Constitution on the fire and trash the nation's credibility for a wayward son. It's important to remember the various elements in this sordid affair - documented here. Hunter, a grown man, did vast amounts of crack cocaine while filming himself with hookers. He failed to pay his taxes and lied about his addiction when applying to purchase a gun. He pleaded guilty to some charges and was found guilty of others. Plus, the outstanding matter of his alleged dodgy deals will probably remain hidden now that Daddy has rescued him. Further, when getting his computer repaired and images came to light of his antics with prostitutes, somebody arranged for tens of former intelligence officials to come forward with claims it was all a Russian plot. The media went along for the ride, repeating the lie without much attempt to question its validity. Subsequently, this cover-up was exposed; the Russians had nothing to do with it. Instead, you've got a wreckless man going off the rails while Dad provides top cover. Now, Biden senior isn't the first U.S. President to grant a pardon to close friends and family. Here is a long list of such pardons. Note anything? Most of those given a free pass are family, friends, dodgy aides, or supporters. In a mealy-mouthed explanation, President Biden asserts he went back on his word not to intervene in Hunter's legal troubles because "Hunter was treated differently," and "raw politics has infected this process." Sure, we know Hunter was treated differently. Holding Hunter accountable was a delayed and drawn out process. Moreover, old Joe provides no evidence that the process was tainted. Indeed, that suggestion is hotly contested. Biden senior would be more credible had he admitted that he had done nothing more than protect his son from jail. This pardon is uniquely hypocritical because Biden senior campaigned on a promise not to interfere with the justice process. That was until he withdrew from the presidential election and gave way to the hapless Harris. Moreover, throughout his political career, especially when dealing with overseas countries, he constantly bragged about the 'rule of law' and claimed moral superiority. All of that is now proving to be flannel and worthless rhetoric. If Biden senior doesn't realise the amount of damage done to American standing, then the man is a fool. We know he is cognitively weakened by age and struggles at times to put a coherent sentence together. Thus, I suspect his powerful wife prevailed upon him to grant Hunter the pardon. Of course, the other aspect of this saga is that Biden has kicked open the door for Trump to pardon Trump. Any remaining credibility in the U.S. justice system, now disappears like cocaine up Hunter's nose. Post Script Well, it didn't take long. Trump is now citing the Hunter pardon in his legal cases asserting "raw politics has infected this process." |
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May 2025
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