Walter's Blog |
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Reflections on recent events, plus the occasional fact free rant unfiltered by rational argument.
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"If you want to read a blog to get a sense of what is going on in Hong Kong these days or a blog that would tell you what life was like living in colonial Hong Kong, this blog, WALTER'S BLOG, fits the bill." Hong Kong Blog Review
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21/8/2025 1 Comment UK Civil War? A Flight of Fancy. "Arguably, the UK benefits from the legacy of the "Glorious Revolution" (1688), a pivotal event that allowed the political system to stay flexible and adaptable. In my long-read piece, "The UK is a tinder box, or are we all getting it wrong?" I take a journey through history, albeit abridged, to suggest that the UK has always faced challenges and has at times teetered on the brink of civil war or severe civil disorder. In support of this discussion, an examination of the flaws in the UK's politics, institutions and society is laid out.
Even so, it is essential to reflect that the country has consistently managed to overcome threats, which should bring a sense of optimism. While the current surge of material on YouTube and other platforms claiming that the country is on the brink of a civil war is interesting, provocative, and reflects a shift in mood, it is also somewhat naive. Bold claims that collapse is imminent appear exaggerated as clickbait. Certainly, there is anger in the national mood. Yet, whether this will lead to civil war remains a matter for debate because the circumstances under which such anger could cause prolonged unrest seem distant. The question must be asked who would be the contesting parties, and what would the fight be for? It is not clear where the lines would be drawn for a sustained campaign. David Betz, an academic, points out that it will not be our usual conception of civil war: it will be more Mogadishu than Marston Moor. Low-level inter-group conflicts that continue indefinitely. And the divide is likely to be along racial lines. The potential for a slow-burning interracial conflict always exists and can be observed in Northern Ireland. Vigilante patrols and similar activities are examples of this ongoing process. Fortunately, in the past, when civil war threatened, the system corrected itself each time. The General Strike of 1926, although not an armed conflict, was a nationwide, coordinated uprising by the labour movement that posed a significant challenge to the government's authority. About 1.7 million workers from key industries went on strike. The government regarded it as a revolutionary threat. The army was ready to intervene, and there were concerns about a Bolshevik-style uprising. The strike itself lasted only nine days before ending Furthermore, the current mood is poor in part because PM Starmer's government has had a disastrous first year in office. They have broken promises, made U-turns, and alienated their core voters. From the outset, Starmer didn’t have a robust mandate, and what support he enjoyed he threw away. As a result, Starmer's popularity ratings are the lowest on record for a sitting Prime Minister. (May 2025, YouGov). Throughout history, since the country had some democratic elements, the system with its two-party setup and Parliament's sovereignty was able to self-correct. Now, with the rise of Reform and the decline of the two-party system, it remains to be seen whether the centre can hold this time. Undoubtedly, the current issue of the day is the level of both legal and illegal migration, along with the associated problem of asylum seekers. The hotels used to house migrants, mostly fighting-age males, are at the centre of public anger and volatile government policy. Moreover, allegations that migrants have attacked and allegedly raped young girls is fuelling hostility. Arrests have been made that give crebility to these allegations. Against the background of the state's failure to address the Pakistani rape gangs, this issue remains an open wound. Also, beneath all this, the struggles of working people arise from decades of economic neglect, austerity, stagnant wages, declining public services, and a political class that has consistently failed to truly represent the British people. The anger is understandable. For sure, it manifested itself in the Brexit vote. The NHS, once a symbol of national pride, is now in a permanent state of crisis. Waiting lists are at record levels, and many people cannot access prompt healthcare. Libraries, youth centres, and community services were decimated, leaving working-class areas destitute. Austerity didn't just cut budgets — it crushed hope. For millions, it meant choosing between heating and eating, relying on food banks, while watching their communities collapse. As public opinion shifts, trust in politicians reaches a historic low. The police, courts, and other institutions are experiencing a similar decline in their reputation. Two-tier policing, rising crime rates, and censorship all contribute to the increasing dissatisfaction. And yet, arguably, the UK benefits from the legacy of the "Glorious Revolution" (1688), a pivotal event that allowed the political system to stay flexible and adaptable. The overthrow of King James II and the rise of William III and Mary II established key principles with little bloodshed. Parliament was the highest political authority, not the monarch. All this meant that political conflicts would take place within the chambers of Westminster, not on the streets. The subsequent Bill of Rights (1689) limited the powers of the monarch and safeguarded the rights of Parliament and individuals, establishing a framework for resolving disputes through law rather than force. Additionally, British political culture has traditionally favoured gradual, pragmatic reform over sudden, ideologically driven upheaval. There is a strong tendency to "muddle through" issues as they come up with practical compromises, rather than sticking to a grand revolutionary theory. Sometimes, the system faces intense testing and pressure, but it usually remains resilient. A small example from this week is the court ruling that using hotels to house migrants is unlawful, thereby addressing community concerns and compelling the government to amend its policies. Likewise, statements by the Home Secretary, Yvette Cooper, emphasising that addressing the number of asylum seekers is important for restoring order, are encouraging. Therefore, the current anger might ease if PM Starmer recognises he must prioritise the needs of the British people over migrants. Otherwise, everything remains uncertain because a strong wave of dissent is growing. How that anger dissipates or manifests into something more troublesome remains to be seen.
1 Comment
 "Gerrymandering happens when state legislators redraw congressional or state legislative districts to benefit their party." The United States claims to be a democracy, apparently without irony. I say that because increasingly, politicians select the voters, not the other way round.
How can I justify such a statement? Well, consider the intriguingly named process of 'Gerrymandering'—the deliberate manipulation of district boundaries to favour one political party over another. This practice, used by both Democrats and Republicans, distorts voter influence and undermines the principle of 'one person, one vote.' The term originates from an 1812 district in Massachusetts that was shaped like a salamander and agreed by Governor Elbridge Gerry—hence "Gerry-mander." Gerrymandering happens when state legislators redraw congressional or state legislative districts to benefit their party. This process can mainly work in two ways:
After each Census (every 10 years), states redraw district lines. In most states, the legislature controls this process, allowing the majority party to skew maps in their favour. For example, in 2010, Republicans launched the 'Redmap' project, a strategic initiative that targeted state legislatures to secure control of redistricting. This move enabled them to establish majorities in states such as Wisconsin, Ohio, and North Carolina, even when Democrats received a greater share of votes nationwide. The 'Redmap' project involved significant financial investment and a comprehensive plan to influence state-level elections, thereby gaining control over the redistricting process. While the Voting Rights Act (1965) requires minority representation, some states have manipulated districts with large minority populations—either packing Black or Hispanic voters into a single district (reducing their influence elsewhere) or splitting them to weaken their voting power. In 2019, the Supreme Court ruled that North Carolina's GOP-drawn maps constituted an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. This decision was a significant step in addressing gerrymandering, as it set a precedent for challenging and overturning unfair district maps. However, the effectiveness of such legal interventions depends on the court's willingness to hear and rule on gerrymandering cases. The internet and modern software have intensified gerrymandering. Political parties can now pinpoint voters at specific residences, allowing them to redraw boundaries to maximise their votes. Thus, in 2011, the Democrats redrew Maryland's 6th District to flip from Republican to Democratic by including more liberal areas near Washington, D.C. And what are the consequences of gerrymandering? In simple terms, election manipulation is taking place. Safe districts discourage moderate candidates, pushing politics to extremes. As a result, this gives disproportionate power, allowing a party to win far more seats than their share of the vote justifies. In 2018, Wisconsin Republicans won 63% of state assembly seats with only 45% of the vote. And all of this leads to voter disenfranchisement. Why bother voting when you know the system is rigged and your ballots don't count? There has been some opposition to gerrymandering: states like California and Arizona employ nonpartisan panels to create more equitable maps. Meanwhile, lawsuits have overturned extreme gerrymanders in states such as Pennsylvania and Florida. In 2021, the 'For the People Act' (2021) was introduced, which included anti-gerrymandering measures. This comprehensive piece of legislation aimed to address various issues related to voting rights and electoral integrity, including gerrymandering. However, the act stalled in Congress, as politicians didn't want changes. All this has garnered attention because President Trump is urging Texas Republicans to redraw boundaries to secure five additional congressional seats. He probably fears the Democrats might regain control of Congress in the 2026 midterm elections. From that position, they could initiate another impeachment attempt against him. Therefore, Trump is using every possible means to keep Congress in his favour. Isn't that quite unfair? The problem is that gerrymandering weakens democracy. These practices and the influence of large financial donors mean that, at best, U.S. democracy is compromised. Remember this the next time you hear a U.S. politician lecturing about how their system is the best. POST SCRIPT California Governor Gavin Newsom is planning to enact legislation that will redraw the states districts if Texas creates five new seats. He aims to nolify the realignment in Texas. This is starting to look like a banana republic. 8/8/2025 1 Comment Taxi Mayhem "For too long, Hong Kong has turned a blind eye to the potential dangers posed by ageing taxi drivers." Terrifying footage of an out-of-control taxi, driven by an 80-year-old, smashing a tourist against a pillar outside the Nina Hotel, has sparked renewed demands for government action. In this incident, the 35-year-old victim, a visitor from the Philippines, was rushed to the hospital, where they were declared dead.
For too long, Hong Kong has turned a blind eye to the potential dangers posed by ageing taxi drivers. While it's important to acknowledge the valuable contributions of elderly drivers, the government's foremost duty is to ensure public safety and driver welfare by enforcing reasonable age limits. The government cannot claim ignorance. A 2020 Transport Department report indicated that drivers aged 70+ were involved in 15 per cent more accidents per kilometre driven than middle-aged drivers. According to the latest government figures, the number of taxi drivers aged 70 or above involved in traffic accidents reached 651 last year, compared with 626 in 2023 and 454 in 2022. The upward trend is clear. Hong Kong’s taxi industry plays a vital role in the city’s transportation system, serving millions of residents and visitors annually. However, as the population ages, an increasing number of elderly taxi drivers remain on the roads, raising concerns about public safety, driver well-being, and service quality. The risks associated with elderly taxi drivers are well recognised: declining physical and mental capabilities. As people age, their reflexes, sight, and hearing naturally worsen. Medical research shows that drivers over 70 have slower reaction times, which are crucial for avoiding accidents. Additionally, diminished night vision increases the dangers at night. We also know that as we get older, we become more susceptible to fatigue, which can lead to microsleeps or delayed responses. Elderly drivers are also more susceptible to sudden medical emergencies, such as heart attacks or strokes, that can cause them to lose control of their vehicles. Additionally, diabetes-related complications like hypoglycemia can lead to dizziness. Lastly, arthritis and joint pain can impair steering and braking efficiency. Unlike private car drivers, taxi drivers work long shifts (often over 10 hours), which increases fatigue-related risks. Japan has a mandatory retirement age of 75 for taxi drivers, supported by strict annual health checks after 65. The UK has no fixed limit, but all drivers must undergo medical tests every year after the age of 60. In Singapore, taxi drivers must retire at 75 unless they pass enhanced tests, including a compulsory simulator assessment. Under current Hong Kong regulations, only those aged 70 or above are required to submit medical reports, while their driving licences can be renewed for up to three years. The fitness certification assesses areas such as the driver’s eyesight, mental state, skeletal and muscular systems, balance and coordination, hearing, and other health indicators. There is no simulator test. The reality is that many older drivers continue working due to financial pressures. Instead of pushing them into unsafe working conditions, the government should provide transitional retirement support, such as enabling part-time or flexible driving roles for semi-retired drivers. And naturally, by strengthening pensions for the elderly, they would be less likely to remain in poverty. If Hong Kong aims to uphold its reputation for a safe public transport system, it must ensure that drivers meet strict health and competency standards. Implementing a mandatory retirement age or more rigorous medical examinations could prevent tragedies. These measures could not only enhance public safety but also improve the industry's reputation and service quality. A good start would be mandatory annual medicals for all taxi drivers over 65, with full retirement at 75 unless exceptional health is proven. By learning from global best practices and implementing phased reforms, Hong Kong can modernise its taxi sector, reduce accidents, and ensure a safer transport network for all. The time to act is now.  "In Hong Kong, mass arrivals of asylum seekers and illegal migrants led to housing in closed camps" A summer of unrest is rapidly unfolding in the UK, marked by significant protests over the housing of asylum seekers in hotels. Local anger is on the rise, particularly after the disturbing attacks on girls in the community. In the most recent incident, two Afghan men are accused of raping a 12-year-old girl, further fueling public outrage.
For some time now, academics have warned politicians that the conditions for civil war are emerging. To the layperson, that might seem too pessimistic, as the violence so far has been limited. However, police action, including a two-tier approach to enforcement, is not helping the situation. Whether two-tier policing is real or not doesn't matter because perception is reality, and polls show many citizens believe it's happening. During recent protests outside an asylum hotel in Epping, police escorted in the counter-protesters to face residents. When overwhelmed, the officers then bused the counter-protesters away in police vehicles. Yet, the asylum seeker debacle is only one aspect of a series of factors forming a perfect storm as the struggling Labour government enters its second year in office. Other issues include:
If a significant disorder occurs, it would probably stem from a combination of these factors. However, the catalyst is likely to be the illegal migrant crisis and the government's failure to respond. With good weather, daily arrivals by small boats from France exceed 1000. These asylum seekers (read illegal migrants) are mostly fighting-age young men from cultures that treat women as chattel. Most arrivals come from Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Eritrea. The backlog in asylum processing is estimated to be around 109,500 as of March 2025. However, that figure is misleading because it appears the government has used various 'classification of cases' procedures to hide the actual number. The real figure may be closer to a quarter of a million. It takes an average of 48 weeks to process a case, and this is before any appeals occur. Hiring staff to handle the screening process is a significant challenge, while asylum seekers are being trained on how to manipulate the system. The entire process is flawed, and the UK taxpayer foots the bill. The taxpayer spends £8 million every day just on accommodation. Meanwhile, a report by the National Audit Office states that an estimated £15.3 billion will be spent over the next ten years. This amount could fund 30 new hospitals or 150,00 affordable homes. In some boroughs, up to one in twenty residents are migrants who arrived within a year. The societal dislocation caused by such an unprecedented influx is a disaster. Yet, beyond minor policy tweaks and performative measures, such as banning internet adverts by people smugglers, Kier Starmer's government seems to have no real solutions. His 'smash the smuggling gangs' initiative hasn't worked, and the public is aware of it: 75% of Britons say the government is 'failing' on migration (YouGov 2024). In Hong Kong, mass arrivals of asylum seekers and illegal migrants led to housing in camps (including eventually closed camps for the Vietnamese) or immediate return for those coming from the Mainland. For Mainland arrivals from the early 1980s onwards, this process was swift, with repatriation occurring the next day—avoiding prolonged scrutiny of claims and appeals that would otherwise consume resources. There is compelling evidence that closed camps can deter arrivals, although I doubt the UK has the appetite to protect its borders with such a measure. Hence, the politicians are left with an unresolvable situation and boiling public anger. No wonder many now believe that the social contract is broken, as they shift their support to Nigel Farage and his Reform Party. Although a national election remains some time away, all signs indicate Farage could win a majority. The challenge for Farage is that Reform lacks a solid 'hinterland' of experience necessary for a ruling party. Therefore, as Trump did with the Republicans, Farage will eventually need to subsume the Conservatives to provide the bulwark he requires to govern. Still, there is another aspect that many are overlooking: Reform support is anchored in the English constituencies, as voters reject both Labour and the Conservative Party. It is different in Wales and Scotland, where national parties hold Reform in check. A possible scenario unfolds as follows: as Labour fails to deliver, a growing school of thought emerges that divergence will once again energise the issue of Scottish independence and prompt Wales to follow suit. A restructured Scottish National Party under new leadership rides high, posing a threat to the union, with the 2029 election a pivotal point. Some academics suggest that the breakup of the United Kingdom is a natural consequence of the decline of the British Empire. While the British Empire was a project of Great Britain, comprising England, Scotland, and Wales, England held the dominant position due to its larger population, economy, and political influence. The argument goes that now the Empire has retreated to the British Isles, separation from Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland seems to be the next logical step. Only time will tell. |
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January 2026
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