A World Reshaped:Power, Pain, and Persistence in 2025

"The most significant event was President Donald Trump's return to office and the swift start of a global tariff war."

As we move into 2026, it is essential to look back at the major geopolitical shifts of 2025. Rising trade tensions, power grabs, and broken alliances significantly changed the global landscape.

Many will remember 2025 as the year the post-war international order fell apart. Instead of clear-cut battles, ongoing confrontations and tough choices reshaped the world. The United States focused on its own economy, China showed patience, Russia sought to maintain its influence, and Europe struggled to stay united.

Meanwhile, the global south recognised that international law is merely another tool wielded by stronger powers against them when convenient. They will increasingly be unwilling to play that game. 

The U.S.-China Economic Confrontation: A War of Attrition

The most significant event was President Donald Trump's return to office and the swift start of a global tariff war. The U.S. imposed high tariffs on imports from almost every country, saying this would restore lost wealth and boost American manufacturing.

In April, U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods jumped to 145%, causing imports from China to drop by almost 25% in the first nine months of the year. Still, China handled the situation better than expected, thanks to years of preparation.

Beijing hit back by targeting U.S. grain exports and restricting exports of rare-earth metals. The plan to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. mostly failed, with data showing a loss of blue-collar jobs. On top of that, the uneven way tariffs were applied created significant uncertainty for American businesses and shoppers.

By year’s end, U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods settled between 20% and 50% for most items, lower than the April peak. Analysts called this a clear win for China, noting how Beijing stood firm against U.S. pressure and kept its economy growing.

The semiconductor competition also cooled, and China showed that top-tier technology is not always necessary to succeed. By using good-enough chips and innovative programming, China matched its main rivals. In a stunning move, Deepseek landed for free.

By the end of the year, China maintained its strategic edge, while the U.S. economy sent mixed signals under Trump’s leadership. Lacklustre job gains were concentrated in just a handful of industries, while high prices remained a concern, prolonging the affordability-related struggles that beset Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden.

Meanwhile, the U.S. banking system is creaking and things could quickly run amok. It's kinda complicated - the best explanation I've found is here. 

Russia's Strategy: Retaining Power Through Hybrid Escalation

Vladimir Putin stayed in power in 2025, but his government faced more risks. After failing to win clearly in Ukraine, Russia’s decline may make it more likely to take risky actions. Russian troops made slow, costly progress by using small-unit tactics and better drones, but experts agree that a clear path to victory is not evident.

With war costs rising to near late-Soviet levels, Russia’s military strength is declining.

Since a regular military win seems unlikely, experts warn that 2026 could see more hybrid tactics. This might mean more sabotage of European defences, stronger information attacks on important elections, and military pressure to weaken Western support for Ukraine.

Europe's Dilemma: Humbled by Division, Not Just Trump

In 2025, Europe had to face the hard truth that the U.S. was no longer a reliable ally. Still, many of Europe’s political problems were caused by its own actions.

The Trump administration changed its approach to Europe, often using critical language. Important documents, such as the U.S. National Security Strategy, warned that Europe could decline due to uncontrolled migration.

Instead of coming together to negotiate as equals, Europe often gave in to Trump’s demands. European leaders wanted to maintain support for Ukraine and ensure that NATO was not abandoned. 

But deep divisions within Europe weakened this strategy. Far-right parties with pro-Russian views led in polls in several countries, which hurt the EU’s ability to negotiate on trade and defence. Big countries like Germany, France, Italy, and Spain could not agree on how to respond to U.S. tariffs.

By year’s end, European leaders recognised the need to strengthen their self-reliance. Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Europe "must become much more independent from the U.S.", signalling a late but serious push for change.

Britain: A Country Adrift

Eighteen months after a big election win, Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour government is facing major political problems. Although they promised change after 14 years of Conservative rule, the government is now caught up in scandals, losing public support, and facing internal divisions.

Seeing the Chancellor cry next to the Prime Minister in Parliament was a first and showed the government’s wider problems: they are playing with a second-rate team.

A string of mistakes has undermined the government’s claims to be more ethical and competent than those before it. For example, Starmer choosing a close friend of a convicted paedophile to represent the country in Washington was a significant error of judgment. A cabinet member's cheating on a house purchase didn’t help matters 

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK now regularly leads Labour in national polls, winning over voters in Labour’s old strongholds who are fed up with mainstream politics. The Green Party is also gaining ground, especially with young people and in cities like London.

The first big test comes in May 2026, with important elections for the Scottish Parliament, the Welsh Senedd, and many English council seats. Labour is likely to face a shellacking that seals Starmer’s fate. 

If Labour loses Wales, it would be a significant blow. In his New Year message, Starmer asked people to be patient and promised that real change would come in 2026. He said he would stick to his current plan and that Britain would see positive changes

However, with his approval ratings falling, the party behind in the polls, and MPs disagreeing internally, Starmer’s leadership looks less and less sustainable.

2026: Who knows?

The events of 2025 have set the stage for an even more unpredictable future.

The Supreme Court is now reviewing whether the Trump's tariff policies are legal. If the court rules against them, the U.S. might have to pay back up to $1 trillion in tariffs, causing major economic uncertainty. The U.S.’s national security policy is also likely to further break up the international order.

Still, the pundits are starting to think about what might happen after Trump. That is unclear.

Europe should get ready not for a stronger Russia, but for a desperate one that might use sabotage, cyber-attacks, and disinformation to make up for its weaker military. Russia could also use nuclear threats to get the world’s attention.

Europe has a big choice to make: keep reacting to events or invest in its own defence, hybrid warfare protection, and a united foreign policy. Whether Europe can come together will decide if it shapes the new world order or is shaped by it.

In short, 2025 was not about big wins but about ongoing challenges. China showed strength, Russia acted out of weakness, Europe’s divisions were clear, and the U.S. went its own way both economically, strategically and politically.

Stay tuned as we navigate what 2026 has in store.

Happy New Year!