A Rough Passage

"Trusting anyone to illicitly convey you that distance, in safety, takes a significant leap of faith. One loose tongue or someone spotting untoward activity, and the game is up."

The capture of Hong Kong bail jumpers and wanted persons by Chinese maritime authorities, had my WhatsApp light up with wild conjecture. Was this a failed operation by an ‘agency’ from the West seeking to get its people out of Hong Kong? I doubt it. 

For starters, whoever planned the trip is not too savvy. You don’t ‘put all your eggs in one basket’. Why? Because, if captured, you’ve given the other side an intelligence bonanza. And that’s what’s happened. 

Plus, everyone in the local maritime community knows the Mainland stepped up vigilance in 2019. Sailors and fisher folk noted seeing more patrols on the Hong Kong boundary. Everything moving in or out of Hong Kong waters comes under scrutiny. 

The detained 11 men and one female are all either on bail or wanted. These include four allegedly linked to a bomb case and another pending a firearms charge. Others are on bail for rioting and arson. Prominent in the group is activist Andy Li, who worked with several British and Australian politicians. These include the former leader of the Conservative party, Iain Duncan-Smith. 

Li was arrested earlier under the new National Security Law. The Daily Mail portrays Li as a British citizen, which is incorrect. He holds a British National Overseas passport (BNO), which does not grant citizenship.  If the Daily Mail report is accurate, the UK Consulate in Hong Kong declined to assist Li. That’s a whole different story.

Media reports further claim that triads provided the escape boat, which was to ferry the group to a coastal vessel for the onward trip to Taiwan. That seems possible. It’s known that organised crime has such capabilities, as it runs illegal operations that meet a variety of needs. The recent discovery of pet smuggling activity illustrates the point. 

Plus, don't forget in 1989, with the help of triads, under the codename ‘Operation Yellowbird’ dissidents came out of China. Hong Kong’s many islands, it’s proximity to the Mainland, and the use of high-speed boats made quick crossings possible. Yet, these transits were not without risk. In one recorded instance, three people sadly perished when their speedboat crashed.

But, seeking to flee to Taiwan from Hong Kong by boat has a margin of risk that is much greater. The distance to the southern tip of Taiwan is some 600 km. The vast majority of the journey by sea would go through waters controlled by the Mainland, unless you opt to adopt a much longer southern route. Further, given the ongoing tension between China, Taiwan and the USA, these waters are subject to close monitoring.

Trusting anyone to illicitly convey you that distance, in safety, takes a significant leap of faith. One loose tongue or someone spotting untoward activity, and the game is up. No doubt in time, more details will emerge of this incident and how it unfolded. 

In another reported case, the Taiwanese caught a group of five Hong Kongers, when their boat ran out of fuel. Despite offering words of encouragement to Hong Kong protesters, Taiwan has shown a less than welcoming face. Announcements by officials suggest further arrivals face classification as illegal immigrants.

Among the many consequences of this incident, is giving extra ammunition for prosecutors to object to bail. Hong Kong courts have until now shown a willingness to grant bail even in significant cases. That may change.

In the meantime, the 12 individuals are in the hands of the Mainland authorities. What action they face remains unclear, although they’ve broken the law by entering Mainland waters without clearance. That can attract a one-year jail term. Eventually, I anticipate the 12 will be back in Hong Kong to have their day in court. Let’s wait and see.