2022 - Events Dear Boy, Events!

“By any reckoning, the man of the match is Zelensky”

When asked the biggest challenges for a statesman, former British Prime Minster Harold MacMillan replied, "Events, dear boy, events!" Well, for sure, the U.K. had plenty of events in 2022. Thus, I should start this 2022 review with post-imperial, post-industrial, and post-Brexit Britain, which is somewhat untethered.

Three prime ministers, two monarchs, near economic meltdown, a war, looming power cuts and England out of the World Cup. Events, my dear reader, events.

I recently heard the U.K. described as a computer game. You start in a room and play for weeks and months, jumping through the various levels. Along the way are all the machinations of politics with endless debates and handwringing. Then, in the end, you arrive back in the same dreary room. Nothing changes, nothing works, and everyone knows the politicians haven't got a clue — including the politicians.

So to cover their tracks, the politicians turned to show business by prancing around on reality TV. This is nothing new, "A family with the wrong members in control," George Orwell wrote of Britain.

It's the level of collective amnesia that stuns me. When the over-caffeinated cosplay Thatcher, Liz Truss imploded the economy, the calls for Boris to come back rang out. But in no time, people forget that Boris trashed standards in public life, lying and cheating throughout his premiership. In the process, he damaged Britain's reputation for pragmatic stability, which lay in ruins on the international stage.

I was in Cambodia during the height of these shenanigans — now that's a country that knows about collective suffering. A taciturn Cambodian official, with a mix of horror and bemusement, asked me, "Is this the way to run a democracy? It doesn't look good." Hard not to agree.

Let's be clear, Boris went because he's untrustworthy, while market forces removed Liz, and by appointment, Rishi replaced her. So is something missing from all this? Oh yes, the electorate! But at least a tortoise managed to register as a Tory party member and get a vote— all hail democracy.

Thankfully, the country rallied to display commendable dignity around the Queen's death. The British responded by doing their best: they formed an orderly line, paid their respects, and woe betides anyone who jumped that queue. That flawless funeral procession, the solemn music, and the echo of gun salutes entwined with the people's measured grief affirmed there is still gravitas in ailing Albion.

Throughout much of the year, British politicians sought to blame all their troubles on mad Vlad. And, for sure, Putin's attack on Ukrainian was the defining international event of the year. Pundits, including me, thrashed the issue to death, so all I'll say is that it will end with negotiations. All wars do.

By any reckoning, the man of the match is Zelensky. He's held his country together, blindsiding Putin on the military and propaganda fronts. I reckon leadership books will trumpet his fortitude, personal characteristics and methods in later years.

Suppose you want to understand how Putin came to power. In that case, you can do no better than watch Trauma Zone. This mesmerising documentary by Adam Curtis captures the fall of the Soviet Union, with rushed attempts to impose democracy and a capitalist economy.

But unfortunately, this effort, led by well-meaning but deeply misguided American experts, failed. In no time, the faltering economy collapsed along with faith in democracy, giving rise to the oligarchs. From this abyss arises Putin, with Curtis concluding this all paved the way for the current predicament.

Then, Curtis took me unwittingly into a rabbit hole studying why societies and civilisations fail. Political scientists, working with mathematical models, have come close to identifying most of the factors associated with a coming collapse. Yet, the precise timing remains challenging to catch.

​Rampant inflation, political stagnation and the transfer of capital to the few all contribute to the process. Also, most civilisations only keep power for about 250 years before waning. Recognise anywhere?

Still, let's acknowledge that Putin has done us a huge favour. He's exposed the eco-zealot's silly arguments that we can quickly de-carbonise the economy and live happily ever after on unicorn milk in a windmill. In a troubled world with unresolved issues, chasing such fantasies is indulgent. Even Greta Iceberg, as she grows up and her irrational teenage brain quietens, has awoken to the fact that all her ideas don't hold up.

Anyway, I suspect that the war will drag on for some time. After all, the weapons manufacturers are profiting, so their lobbyists will be busy. Then be ready to watch which companies grab the lion's share of reconstruction contracts.

Of course, Covid continued to impact life with disruptions to supply chains. Plus, China isolating itself didn't help matters. President Xi, having cemented his position at the 20th National Congress in October, almost immediately faced a demonstration of the limitations of power as the people’s patience reached its limits over Covid restrictions. Events again.

Responding with a quick pivot that confounded his critics — who envisaged a crackdown — he relaxed the Covid rules. Yet, this approach is not without risks. The coming weeks and months will reveal the impact. Still, let's also acknowledge that Zero Covid weakened the Chinese economy and has done nothing for the falling birth rates.

Meanwhile, on the geopolitical front, the relentless shift of the global economy eastward towards China, India and Asia continues. As part of this process, many countries in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, have concluded deals with China. Without a doubt, the moves by Saudi Arabia are a clear rebuke aimed at Washington, designed to remind Biden that Saudi oil policy does not come from the U.S.

Likewise, India is asserting itself by demonstrating strategic autonomy. One week they meet the U.S. at the Quad and China the next at the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation. At the same time, Delhi seeks to work around Western sanctions to buy oil from Russia and keep friends in all camps.

This eastward shift is all part of a more significant long-term transformation that works across all societies. For example, we know from anthropologists that urban centres expand the collective brain by bringing together people with ideas and technology. The industrial revolution took off for that very reason.

Look at a map today, and the vast conurbations are in the East; the greater bay area next to Hong Kong is a prime example. These engines of progress confer economic benefits and, eventually, political clout.

The year in Hong Kong saw a sorry parade of young people passing through our courts, accounting for their actions in the 2019/20 troubles. Following the cases, I see a rote line of defence has evolved. The accused is always profoundly sorry. Letters and testimony from family, friends and teachers give weight to claims that smashing MTR stations, firebombing, and beating innocent bystanders is out of character. I suppose this is all true because that's the nature of riots; ordinary folks get carried away.

The offenders can expect a three to four-years jail sentence on a guilty plea: after less than two years, most will be free, subject to good behaviour. Yet, reintegration into the community will need attention in the coming years to avoid creating a disgruntled underclass.

According to police figures, there were 10,279 arrests for rioting, unlawful assembly, wounding, assaults, arson, criminal damage, assaults on police and possession of offensive weapons. To date, 2,915 have gone through judicial proceedings including 1,391 crime convictions and a variety of community orders.

Some defendants are walking away from court proven innocent, which lays bare the lie of a compromised Hong Kong judicial system. Far from it. Canadian Beverley McLachlin, who joined the Hong Kong Court of Final Appeal in 2018, said, "The Court is completely independent, functioning in the way I was used to in Canada". She added, "There's no government influence, and if there were, I wouldn't be there". These words will no doubt enrage those activists, many overseas, who seek to de-legitimise the judiciary.

After that navel-gazing, my eyes move skyward. My next unlikely port of call is a stunning development. Astronomers using the Event Horizon Telescope managed to take a picture of Sagittarius A*, the supermassive black hole at the centre of our galaxy. Sagittarius A* sits 27,000 light years away.

With over four million solar masses as its estimated weight, Sagittarius A* is enormous. But don't worry and forget what Hollywood tells you; black holes don't consume galaxies. Instead, they fade and burp themselves out of existence like politicians.

Anyway, the sun burns out long before then, and our galaxy collides with the Andromeda galaxy, with stuff flying off in all directions. Events again.

To finish the science year, researchers announced that they'd achieved sustainable nuclear fusion with the promise of cheap, clean, limitless energy. Well, that's what the headlines had me believe (again).

​Then Kim Budil, director of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, said, "With concerted effort and investment, a few decades of research on the underlying technologies could put us in a position to build a power plant." As always, nuclear fusion is thirty years away.

So, after that rather eclectic wander through 2022, I wish you Merry Jingle Bells - may your god be with you and good health. Then, let's see what events 2023 brings.