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  • Walter's Blog.
  • Home
  • Introduction
  • About Walter
    • 1980 Joining Up - Grafton Street >
      • Arrival and First Impressions
      • First Week
      • Training
      • Passing Out
    • Yaumati Cowboy >
      • Getting on the Streets
      • Jumpers, pill poppers and the indoor BBQ
      • Tempo of the City
      • Into a Minefield.
    • Why Tango in Paris, when you can Foxtrot in Kowloon? >
      • Baptism By Fire
      • Kai Tak with Mrs Thatcher.
      • Home; The Boy Returns
  • 1984 - 1986
    • PTU Instructor & Getting Hitched
    • Having a go: SDU
    • Starting a Chernobyl family
    • EOD - Don't touch anything
    • Semen Stains and the rules
  • 1987 to 1992 - Should I Stay or Go?
    • Blue Lights, Sirens & Grenades
    • Drugs, Broken Kids & A Plane Crash
    • 600 Happy Meals Please!
    • Hong Kong's Best Insurance
    • Riding the Iron Horse
  • Crime in Hong Kong
    • Falling Crime Rates - Why?
    • Triads
    • The Saga That Rocked Hong Kong's Legal Fraternity
  • History of Hong Kong Policing
    • History 1841 to 1941
    • History 1945 to 1967
    • Anatomy of the 50 cent Riot - 1966
    • The Fall of a Commissioner.
    • History 1967 to 1980
    • Three Wise Men from the West
    • The Blue Berets.
    • The African Korps and other tribes.
    • Getting About - Transport.
    • A Pub in every station
    • Bullshit Bingo & Meetings
    • Godber - The one who nearly got away.
    • Uncle Ho
  • Top 20 Films
    • 2001 - A Space Odyssey.
    • The Godfather.
    • Blade Runner
    • Kes
    • Star Wars
    • Aliens
    • Ferris Bueller's Day Off
    • The Life of Brian
    • Dr Strangelove.
    • Infernal Affairs
    • Bridge on the River Kwai.
    • This Is Spinal Tap.
    • Chung King Express
    • An Officer and a Gentleman
    • PTU
    • Contact
    • Saving Private Ryan
    • Family Guy Star Wars
    • Zulu
    • Hard Day's Night
  • The Long Read
    • The Big Game
    • The Hidden Leader
    • How The Walls Come Down
    • War in Ukraine - the narrative and other stuff.
    • New World Order - Something is going on!
    • British Policing - What's to be done?
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Reflections on recent events, plus the occasional fact free rant unfiltered by rational argument. 

"If you want to read a blog to get a sense of what is going on in Hong Kong these days or a blog that would tell you what life was like living in colonial Hong Kong, this blog, WALTER'S BLOG, fits the bill."  Hong Kong Blog Review
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30/5/2017 0 Comments

20 Years down the line.

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The 20th anniversary of Hong Kong's return to Chinese sovereignty is approaching. It's natural to now review the past two decades. Of course, that process will involve the compulsory comparisons to the colonial era. I don't find such comparisons always useful. You are not comparing like with like. Many things have changed. Hong Kong has evolved, whilst China continues on its spectacular transformation. Thus, it's not logical to make direct comparisons. Nor is it helpful to the evolving debate on Hong Kong's future. What happened, happened. 

In any discussion on Hong Kong’s current standing its easy to fall into one of the polarised camps. The so-called pro-democratic politicians will say Hong Kong is a mess. Everything is negative, freedoms are gone and Hong Kong has a bleak future. The pro-government types will paint a rosy picture. Hong Kong is booming, freedoms are assured. Whilst, the future is all brightness and opportunity. All things considered, the truth is somewhere between these two positions.

In the past 20 years, China has emerged onto the world stage. A big hitter with economic clout. It has growing military muscle and is not ashamed to make its presence felt. Driving this is a collective memory of China's humiliation by Japan and the West. The Communist Party harnessed that nationalism to get cohesion across the Chinese race. In the process, it has pulled millions out of poverty. Such an achievement has had its costs. Environmental damage, upheavals and pogroms scarred the process. Nonetheless, China's achievements over the past decades cannot be dismissed nor downplayed. History is unlikely to witness again such a relentless enhancement in living standards. Plus, executed over such a short period.

Hong Kong played a part in that process. At first, Hong Kong was China’s window to the world. Then, a source of expertise, financial acumen and hard cash. Hong Kong is also pivotal to the process of restoring national pride. Hong Kong's return to China’s sovereignty was an unequivocal signal.  Here was a nation set on course of reunification. Meanwhile, sitting off China’s south-east coast is the big prize … Taiwan. That's proving an altogether different challenge.

So, as far as I’m concerned, the fate of Hong Kong is seen in the context of China's history. Layered on top of that are international power plays and the shifting of the balance of power between nations.

Over the next month, I’ll seek to comment and review how matters are progressing. By its nature, my opinionated analysis won't gain favour with all. I sought to break my commentary into broad areas, such as the economy, crime and education. In reality, all these areas intersect. The shambles in the education system is because of policies flip-flopping. Likewise, economic innovation has stalled due to the stalemate in politics. Thus, each area interacts with the next. It’s a complex matrix of influence that I’ll seek to unravel. 

On the wider world stage. China now stands in a position of prominence. Its economic wallop undisputed, whilst on the military front, its power is growing. Beijing has emerged as a confident defender of its territory, status and people. Assertive at times, it will no longer will sit back if its interests are threatened. Some naive politicians in Hong Kong have failed to recognise or understand this. To their shame they have overplayed a weak hand, inviting Beijing to take a suspicious view of Hong Kong. 

With the distractions of Brexit and the diminished US under Trump, China's political space has expanded. It has more room for its agenda. Moreover, China is less likely to listen to criticism from these nations. The US needs China to deal with North Korea and the UK needs China for trade. So,  bleating about events in Hong Kong will fade.
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Even now the fall-out from their ill-conceived Occupy movement is being felt. The pro-democrats have done more damage to Hong Kong's progress than any other group.  They have vetoed progress towards democracy, stalled projects, whilst engaging in petty squabbles. 

Having lived through 17-years of the colonial era and 20-years of Chinese rule, I'm well placed to observe events. So, let's see how this develops.

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    Walter De Havilland was one of the last of the colonial coppers. He served 35 years in the Royal Hong Kong Police and Hong Kong Police Force. He's long retired. 

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