Hubris, arrogance and failure.
"The Boys are back in town as the U.S. sneaks away in the night."
How to best sum up the West's war and intervention in Afghanistan: hubris, arrogance, and a complete failure? Yep, that captures the big picture.
Of course, the Americans take most of the flak for the bungled withdrawal. But I must say that NATO countries are equally culpable for this tangled mess.
Today, a ragtag army of Taliban fighters, armed only with AK47s and RPG7s, is consolidating control of the country. Twenty years of battle with the most sophisticated armies the West could field has these medieval fighters as victors.
All the helicopters, jets, drones, satellites, integrated command and control systems and special forces couldn't defeat blokes wearing cheap sports shoes and riding in pick-up trucks.
Meanwhile, a supposedly highly-trained Afghan army melted away without a fight. It never had much of a stomach for battle, and with the West gone, the smell of defeat hung in the air. Soldiers abandoned their posts, changed into civilian clothes and headed home.
Why did it come to this? The military staff colleges and think tanks will undoubtedly dwell on that question for decades. Pundits will earn PhDs, and books will come forth as reputations get polished and trashed in equal numbers.
These assessments will throw in Sun Tzu (孫子) — 'know your enemy, understand yourself and win a thousand battles', plus a bit of 'winning without fighting'. Supplement that with some Carl von Clausewitz and a smidgen of Machiavelli, and you've got intellectual heft.
Nonetheless, in the end, it comes down to a complete lack of comprehension and commitment.
No amount of rumination by professors and soldier scholars will change that assessment.
Because, at its core, the mission was unclear. Moreover, holding a few remote compounds does not constitute a victory. Likewise, sitting inside a secure 'green zone' or at guarded airbases gives one the false impression of control. Still, the Taliban waited with patience outside the perimeter.
Even a meagre understanding of Afghan history and past wars should give cause for caution. Perhaps Kipling is no longer taught at school; he is too colonial and imperial.
I have no idea if the Taliban are adherents of Sun Tzu. What is clear is that they've followed his guiding principle: make time your ally. They waited, knowing the West would grow tired of the war.
Yet, the biggest failure is political. Biden, Johnson, and the NATO leaders are in the direct firing line. Other culprits are Bush, Blair, and much of the Western establishment for gamely going along.
The politicians sowed the seeds of this debacle decades ago with a failure to plan. What was the ultimate aim of the campaign? Was that goal achievable, and did anyone have an exit strategy? Because fleeing at night isn't a confidence builder for those you leave behind.
The answer to all these questions is clear. The initial mission to rout Al-Qaeda from its Afghan base succeeded. That was the time to leave. Instead, the mission morphed towards nation-building, a fraught prospect in a country that runs on tribal loyalties. Anchoring all this was much talk of getting girls into school—a worthy initiative but not enough. So, the only conclusion to draw is that a failure to plan leads to a failure!
People scramble to Kabul airport as helicopters lift off from a U.S. Embassy once again. No matter how many times U.S. Secretary of State Blinken rejects comparisons with Saigon 1975, the imagery defeats him.
Whether Afghanistan reverts and becomes a base for terrorism is one worry; the other is the fate of the people who put their faith in the West. Unfortunately, the signs are not promising.
If Afghanistan descends into chaos, you could argue this serves the West's geopolitical interests by stirring trouble on China's border, especially as Afghanistan abuts the sensitive Xinjiang region.
Leaving also removes a distraction for the forthcoming U.S. mid-term elections. Biden would like the weight of Afghanistan off his shoulders, although Iraq may prove a heavier burden.
All this is at the cost of allies questioning whether they can trust the West to stay the course. As I've previously discussed, Asian countries are treading a careful line between China and the U.S.A. as the ‘Cold War' escalates. So, what conclusions will they draw from this sudden departure?
Also asking questions are families in the West, who sent their sons and daughters, mostly from post-industrial towns, to die in this futile effort. They deserve an answer. But, as the media swirl goes on, where are Tony Blair and Alistair Campbell? Always so ready to offer their sage advice, these charlatans stand damned by their silence.
A mea culpa from Blair would be a start, but I'm not holding my breath.
August 2021
Of course, the Americans take most of the flak for the bungled withdrawal. But I must say that NATO countries are equally culpable for this tangled mess.
Today, a ragtag army of Taliban fighters, armed only with AK47s and RPG7s, is consolidating control of the country. Twenty years of battle with the most sophisticated armies the West could field has these medieval fighters as victors.
All the helicopters, jets, drones, satellites, integrated command and control systems and special forces couldn't defeat blokes wearing cheap sports shoes and riding in pick-up trucks.
Meanwhile, a supposedly highly-trained Afghan army melted away without a fight. It never had much of a stomach for battle, and with the West gone, the smell of defeat hung in the air. Soldiers abandoned their posts, changed into civilian clothes and headed home.
Why did it come to this? The military staff colleges and think tanks will undoubtedly dwell on that question for decades. Pundits will earn PhDs, and books will come forth as reputations get polished and trashed in equal numbers.
These assessments will throw in Sun Tzu (孫子) — 'know your enemy, understand yourself and win a thousand battles', plus a bit of 'winning without fighting'. Supplement that with some Carl von Clausewitz and a smidgen of Machiavelli, and you've got intellectual heft.
Nonetheless, in the end, it comes down to a complete lack of comprehension and commitment.
No amount of rumination by professors and soldier scholars will change that assessment.
Because, at its core, the mission was unclear. Moreover, holding a few remote compounds does not constitute a victory. Likewise, sitting inside a secure 'green zone' or at guarded airbases gives one the false impression of control. Still, the Taliban waited with patience outside the perimeter.
Even a meagre understanding of Afghan history and past wars should give cause for caution. Perhaps Kipling is no longer taught at school; he is too colonial and imperial.
I have no idea if the Taliban are adherents of Sun Tzu. What is clear is that they've followed his guiding principle: make time your ally. They waited, knowing the West would grow tired of the war.
Yet, the biggest failure is political. Biden, Johnson, and the NATO leaders are in the direct firing line. Other culprits are Bush, Blair, and much of the Western establishment for gamely going along.
The politicians sowed the seeds of this debacle decades ago with a failure to plan. What was the ultimate aim of the campaign? Was that goal achievable, and did anyone have an exit strategy? Because fleeing at night isn't a confidence builder for those you leave behind.
The answer to all these questions is clear. The initial mission to rout Al-Qaeda from its Afghan base succeeded. That was the time to leave. Instead, the mission morphed towards nation-building, a fraught prospect in a country that runs on tribal loyalties. Anchoring all this was much talk of getting girls into school—a worthy initiative but not enough. So, the only conclusion to draw is that a failure to plan leads to a failure!
People scramble to Kabul airport as helicopters lift off from a U.S. Embassy once again. No matter how many times U.S. Secretary of State Blinken rejects comparisons with Saigon 1975, the imagery defeats him.
Whether Afghanistan reverts and becomes a base for terrorism is one worry; the other is the fate of the people who put their faith in the West. Unfortunately, the signs are not promising.
If Afghanistan descends into chaos, you could argue this serves the West's geopolitical interests by stirring trouble on China's border, especially as Afghanistan abuts the sensitive Xinjiang region.
Leaving also removes a distraction for the forthcoming U.S. mid-term elections. Biden would like the weight of Afghanistan off his shoulders, although Iraq may prove a heavier burden.
All this is at the cost of allies questioning whether they can trust the West to stay the course. As I've previously discussed, Asian countries are treading a careful line between China and the U.S.A. as the ‘Cold War' escalates. So, what conclusions will they draw from this sudden departure?
Also asking questions are families in the West, who sent their sons and daughters, mostly from post-industrial towns, to die in this futile effort. They deserve an answer. But, as the media swirl goes on, where are Tony Blair and Alistair Campbell? Always so ready to offer their sage advice, these charlatans stand damned by their silence.
A mea culpa from Blair would be a start, but I'm not holding my breath.
August 2021
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