Fair Dee Well
"Over time, the impact of departures from Hong Kong has been minimal."
Reports indicate that around 3,000 Hong Kong residents apply for the BNO visa each month. This visa provides a route to citizenship in the United Kingdom. However, the number of individuals who may move to the UK remains uncertain.
Covid travel restrictions and a wait-and-see attitude may cause individuals to delay their final move. After all, choosing to migrate is a heart-wrenching decision, filled with emotional and financial challenges, particularly for families with children.
Moving to the UK presents both advantages and disadvantages. Furthermore, mass emigration from Hong Kong is particularly prevalent. Before 1997, Hong Kong experienced numerous departures as people's sentiments about the future changed. Approximately 500,000 individuals emigrated between 1987 and 1996, with 66,200 leaving in 1992 alone. After acquiring overseas passports, many returned, contributing to the substantial population of 'Canadian' citizens in Hong Kong.
Over time, the impact of departures from Hong Kong has been minimal. With a large talent pool on the Mainland, sourcing specialists is fairly straightforward. Furthermore, the city continues to attract top-tier expatriate talent.
Naturally, it makes sense for the UK to attract hard-working residents from Hong Kong. A recent report on racism in the UK noted that every ethnic group performs better in education than the white working class, except for black Caribbean boys. The highest-performing group comprises Chinese and Asian children who benefit from traditional, strong family units.
Therefore, although an influx of Hong Kong Chinese may initially incur some economic costs and dislocation, it will ultimately benefit the country.
When speaking to a professional couple considering a move to the UK last week, it was clear they had calculated their finances. They have the means to afford a flat in a respectable London borough, and their savings are adequate to last a couple of years. However, they overlooked one significant issue: the UK may not exist as a country in ten years.
In a lead article, last week's Economist asserted, "The bonds that hold England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland together are weaker than at any time in living memory." Scotland may be the first to break away. It's worth remembering that three in five Scots voted against Brexit. A recent poll found that two-thirds of Scots under 45 support independence.
From a distance, looking at the UK's political scene, I see no eminent person with a clear vision for the future of a 'united kingdom'; there exists no unifying force nor ideology that anchors the times to come. For starters, Prime Minister Boris Johnson lacks the appearance of seriousness, with a propensity for bluff and bluster. He's proven himself incompetent, although he seeks to bask in the reflected glory of the Covid vaccine rollout.
Meanwhile, the opposition Labour Party wanders the wilderness, fighting amongst themselves. They won't likely see power again in decades. As a result, Johnson's Tory Party enjoys an unopposed run in parliament.
Into this gap steps Scotland's First Minister Nichola Sturgeon. Sturgeon presents independence for Scotland as the logical choice that gives a more egalitarian future for Scots. There is no ignoring the fact that her message has traction with all classes within Scotland.
She enjoys acclaim for her adept management of the messaging surrounding Covid, despite Scotland facing similar case numbers to England. Some suggest she remains impervious to criticism because the Scots resent the 'English' parliament more than any of Sturgeon's shortcomings. Perhaps? Furthermore, it is notable that she has navigated recent challenges that posed a threat to her reputation, despite the media frenzy suggesting she was finished.
So, for now, the direction of travel is impossible to ignore. The Scottish question won't go away despite Johnson's attempts to ignore the matter. Barring a major upset, Scotland will get another chance to vote on independence within a few years. We will get a taste of sentiment during the elections on May 6th. Separation looks more likely if the outcome is a strong mandate for the Scottish National Party.
Meanwhile, Brexit is reopening old wounds in Northern Ireland. Recent riots show that the underlying political sentiment remains delicate. As Brexit caused disruptions to trade, the loyalist community have grown fearful of separation from the Mainland. On the back of this, the nationalist community sees an opportunity to push for reunification with Ireland. These vexed questions may undo much of the progress since the 1998 Good Friday Agreement.
And while the situation in Wales is less volatile, if Scotland gains independence, that may change.
During Covid, the UK as a single entity demonstrated some strengths. The vaccine rollout is a notable high point. But, other aspects of national standing and infrastructure are looking rickety.
Take defence as an example. The Bovington Tank Museum houses more tanks than those used by the British Army. Two aircraft carriers entered service without planes or adequate escorts. The largest ships ever built for the Royal Navy account for over half the defence budget's existing £13 billion deficit.
To make matters worse, the facade of an independent nuclear deterrent is wearing thin. All the missiles originate from the USA. Furthermore, if Scotland were to attain independence, the nuclear submarines might have to relocate to France or the USA, as no other suitable bases would be available. It must be acknowledged that this is a farce of a deterrent. One military leader remarked, "The British armed forces increasingly resemble an echelon of the US military."
The economic outlook for the UK remains uncertain, with the full impact of Covid and Brexit still unfolding. Government borrowing currently stands at 14.5% of GDP, the highest level since World War II. The country may soon offset this borrowing if the anticipated post-Covid recovery materialises. If it does not, the prospects appear precarious.
Above all, whether the UK will still exist as a single entity or fragment remains.
Let's recognise that those seeking certainty outside Hong Kong may enter a domain with equally problematic political issues. How Scotland's independence will work remains unclear. Politicians must address various matters, including trade, borders, the military, diplomatic representation, and basic stuff like energy supplies.
That is worth reflecting on, as the whispers in the wind suggest that the United Kingdom has run its course. Untangling from 1707 may make 1997 seem easy.
April 2021
Covid travel restrictions and a wait-and-see attitude may cause individuals to delay their final move. After all, choosing to migrate is a heart-wrenching decision, filled with emotional and financial challenges, particularly for families with children.
Moving to the UK presents both advantages and disadvantages. Furthermore, mass emigration from Hong Kong is particularly prevalent. Before 1997, Hong Kong experienced numerous departures as people's sentiments about the future changed. Approximately 500,000 individuals emigrated between 1987 and 1996, with 66,200 leaving in 1992 alone. After acquiring overseas passports, many returned, contributing to the substantial population of 'Canadian' citizens in Hong Kong.
Over time, the impact of departures from Hong Kong has been minimal. With a large talent pool on the Mainland, sourcing specialists is fairly straightforward. Furthermore, the city continues to attract top-tier expatriate talent.
Naturally, it makes sense for the UK to attract hard-working residents from Hong Kong. A recent report on racism in the UK noted that every ethnic group performs better in education than the white working class, except for black Caribbean boys. The highest-performing group comprises Chinese and Asian children who benefit from traditional, strong family units.
Therefore, although an influx of Hong Kong Chinese may initially incur some economic costs and dislocation, it will ultimately benefit the country.
When speaking to a professional couple considering a move to the UK last week, it was clear they had calculated their finances. They have the means to afford a flat in a respectable London borough, and their savings are adequate to last a couple of years. However, they overlooked one significant issue: the UK may not exist as a country in ten years.
In a lead article, last week's Economist asserted, "The bonds that hold England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland together are weaker than at any time in living memory." Scotland may be the first to break away. It's worth remembering that three in five Scots voted against Brexit. A recent poll found that two-thirds of Scots under 45 support independence.
From a distance, looking at the UK's political scene, I see no eminent person with a clear vision for the future of a 'united kingdom'; there exists no unifying force nor ideology that anchors the times to come. For starters, Prime Minister Boris Johnson lacks the appearance of seriousness, with a propensity for bluff and bluster. He's proven himself incompetent, although he seeks to bask in the reflected glory of the Covid vaccine rollout.
Meanwhile, the opposition Labour Party wanders the wilderness, fighting amongst themselves. They won't likely see power again in decades. As a result, Johnson's Tory Party enjoys an unopposed run in parliament.
Into this gap steps Scotland's First Minister Nichola Sturgeon. Sturgeon presents independence for Scotland as the logical choice that gives a more egalitarian future for Scots. There is no ignoring the fact that her message has traction with all classes within Scotland.
She enjoys acclaim for her adept management of the messaging surrounding Covid, despite Scotland facing similar case numbers to England. Some suggest she remains impervious to criticism because the Scots resent the 'English' parliament more than any of Sturgeon's shortcomings. Perhaps? Furthermore, it is notable that she has navigated recent challenges that posed a threat to her reputation, despite the media frenzy suggesting she was finished.
So, for now, the direction of travel is impossible to ignore. The Scottish question won't go away despite Johnson's attempts to ignore the matter. Barring a major upset, Scotland will get another chance to vote on independence within a few years. We will get a taste of sentiment during the elections on May 6th. Separation looks more likely if the outcome is a strong mandate for the Scottish National Party.
Meanwhile, Brexit is reopening old wounds in Northern Ireland. Recent riots show that the underlying political sentiment remains delicate. As Brexit caused disruptions to trade, the loyalist community have grown fearful of separation from the Mainland. On the back of this, the nationalist community sees an opportunity to push for reunification with Ireland. These vexed questions may undo much of the progress since the 1998 Good Friday Agreement.
And while the situation in Wales is less volatile, if Scotland gains independence, that may change.
During Covid, the UK as a single entity demonstrated some strengths. The vaccine rollout is a notable high point. But, other aspects of national standing and infrastructure are looking rickety.
Take defence as an example. The Bovington Tank Museum houses more tanks than those used by the British Army. Two aircraft carriers entered service without planes or adequate escorts. The largest ships ever built for the Royal Navy account for over half the defence budget's existing £13 billion deficit.
To make matters worse, the facade of an independent nuclear deterrent is wearing thin. All the missiles originate from the USA. Furthermore, if Scotland were to attain independence, the nuclear submarines might have to relocate to France or the USA, as no other suitable bases would be available. It must be acknowledged that this is a farce of a deterrent. One military leader remarked, "The British armed forces increasingly resemble an echelon of the US military."
The economic outlook for the UK remains uncertain, with the full impact of Covid and Brexit still unfolding. Government borrowing currently stands at 14.5% of GDP, the highest level since World War II. The country may soon offset this borrowing if the anticipated post-Covid recovery materialises. If it does not, the prospects appear precarious.
Above all, whether the UK will still exist as a single entity or fragment remains.
Let's recognise that those seeking certainty outside Hong Kong may enter a domain with equally problematic political issues. How Scotland's independence will work remains unclear. Politicians must address various matters, including trade, borders, the military, diplomatic representation, and basic stuff like energy supplies.
That is worth reflecting on, as the whispers in the wind suggest that the United Kingdom has run its course. Untangling from 1707 may make 1997 seem easy.
April 2021
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